Russia can't attack NATO now but plans military expansion.
Russia will not launch an attack on NATO this year or next but is setting its sights on expanding forces along NATO's eastern flank. The extent of this expansion hinges on the ongoing war in Ukraine, says Kaupo Rosin, Estonia's foreign intelligence chief. Speaking at an online briefing, Rosin highlighted Russia’s strategy to multiply its military presence, contingent on the outcomes of discussions involving Moscow, Washington, and Kyiv about ending the conflict with Ukraine.
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Despite ongoing negotiations, Rosin asserts that President Vladimir Putin is convinced he can still achieve military success in Ukraine. The plan involves creating new military units along the border with NATO, yet preserving a robust military presence inside Ukraine remains a priority. Due to current resource limitations, Moscow lacks the capability to launch an attack on NATO but is concerned about a rearming Europe becoming a potential threat.
Russian officials, according to Rosin, view Washington as their main adversary and are stalling for time in negotiations. There appears to be no genuine intention from Moscow to cooperate meaningfully with the U.S. Estonia's intelligence, gathered from Russian internal discussions, underscores a lack of willingness to compromise. While U.S.-brokered talks have been described as positive by both sides, significant progress on key issues remains elusive.
A White House official responded to these insights by affirming tremendous progress in negotiations to end the war, pointing to a recent agreement involving the release of over 300 prisoners. This development is seen as evidence that diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict are making headway. President Trump has set a firm June deadline for a settlement between Kyiv and Moscow, though past deadlines have come and gone without visible consequences.
Fiona Hill, a former advisor to Trump, suggested both Trump and Putin are crafting narratives that position them as pivotal figures—Putin as a victor, Trump as a negotiator. Although Trump has repeatedly voiced optimism about Putin's desire for peace, his frustration with the Russian leader's lackluster approach to talks has surfaced at times.
Meanwhile, Russian airstrikes in Sloviansk have resulted in tragic civilian casualties, including the deaths of a woman and her young daughter. Rosin criticized Putin's obsession with controlling Ukraine, noting it takes precedence over any economic consequences. He predicted the conflict would persist unless a catastrophic shift occurs, either within Russia or on the military front.
Discrepancies in military reporting also contribute to Putin's persistence. Rosin noted that while lower-ranking officers grasp the harsh realities on the battlefield, higher-level officials present more optimistic portrayals to the Kremlin leader. This selective filtering of information aligns with an environment where officials tell Putin what he wishes to hear.
Hill emphasized that both Trump and Putin might be influenced by associates inclined to appease them, supporting narratives that reinforce their objectives. As the world watches, the pressure builds for genuine progress and transparency in negotiations.
Key Takeaways
Russia plans military growth along NATO's eastern border.
Negotiations show minimal progress despite U.S. optimism.
Putin remains fixated on Ukraine, disregarding economic fallout.
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Adapted by ASEAN Now · Source · 12 Feb 2026