Eric Loh

I too have my doubts about watchman’s integrity and honesty. But I got to cut him some slack for taking an unlikely stance for blaming the elites and conservatives for coups and voicing support for democracy. Despite being an Army general, Prawit Wongsuwan has taken an unlikely stance in politics – he is now blaming the elite and conservatives for coups and voicing support for democracy.

I am sure that 1973 uprising against military dictatorship is in the minds of the establishment as there are similarities with the current political stalemate. Young Thais and sympathetic young military and police personnel can be very violent and unpredictable that will worry the Royal house. I think better heads will prevail to avoid such a disaster.

Prawit has denied speculation as late as 2 July that they is no secret deal to form an alternative government with PTP. He also gave a cryptic comment that his party has not concluded that they will vote as a block with the opposition MPs. There are rumors that he may vote for PTP Sretha and may influence some senators to come on board to break the impasse. PTP being an incumbent political party has better relationship with Prawit and some senators. https://www.thaipbsworld.com/prawit-claims-there-is-no-secret-deal-to-form-alternative-government/

Agree with you. Violent Demonstration like in the past played onto the hands of the military and lose the support of the general public. Something can be learnt from the Philippines People Power movement. Peaceful civil disobedience campaign and calling supporters to boycott publications and companies which are associated with the non democratic group. People power culminated with event that was attended by about 2 million people. A crowd that the authority will find hard to ignore.

Against forum rule to mention the person I am referring.

Possible scenario that the party will be dissolved and the elected MPs will join other parties or MFP has already registered a party in anticipation of such legal jeopardy. The pro-democracy coalition will still hold the majority in Parliament.

Vote of no confidence is the prerogative of the house speaker to accept and house to vote on it. PM play no part. The petition can be a vote off no confidence on the caretaker PM.

MPs have been certified, House speaker elected and Parliament opened by the King. Prayut is still the caretaker PM. House speaker can accept a no confidence petition and with the House majority can force (not call) a snap election.

The MFP + PTP coalition need to stand united. As majority in the lower house, they can force a snap election if the junta and senators continue to play hard ball and continue this charade of stone walling the voting of the coalition candidate and continue with the caretaker government. This is a strong card they have and the junta fear. a snap election after the shenanigans played to the nation wide audience. It will be a backlash by voters that the junta will surely regret.

Any unrest will be a serious concern for the new regime who just assumed the esteem role. The fear for him is that he may be ensnared into the politics and be blamed. He also fear that the unrest may snowball into his domain.

It will be a yellow shirts protest in Bangkok and it can be massive like they turned out and protest Thaksin's amnesty. Most likely peaceful but in numbers that they authority can't ignore. It will not move a dial for Pita as senators are locked in to deny his candidacy but will progress the formation of the new government speedily with a more moderate PM likely K Setha Thavisin. I believed that MFP has considered that scenario and will stick with PTP and the coalition. Breaking up the coalition is not an option both parties will contemplate.

If the pro-democracy form the government, it will be elected senators for sure. In fact, I like them to push harder for a unicameral system with only the Parliament as the legislative house. Thailand had unicameral system before. Legally the PM candidancy process can run indefinately till a consensus reached. The caretaker government will continue until the the PM is appointed with a majority joint house votes. A coalition party leader even suggest such a step but I don't think that the nation leaders will want the process to dragged on and will definitely reach some sort of compromise to form the new government.

Doubt any coup for many reasons.

I think Pita candidancy for PM will be re-submitted for the next voting session unless the Charter Court make 2 big annoucements before 19 July. If the Court announced that they will accept the case forwarded by EC on the iTV shares and also accept EC recommendation to strip his MP status, it will weakened his votes. It can lead to prison time and party dissolution. The other announcement will be detrimental for his own personal safety as the court has accepted a compliant filed by a lawyer against Pita for his plans to reform 112. This is 112 case will be a major obstacle as the senators used this effectively in yesterday debate and had major influence on the senates and opposition MPs voting decisions. Although Pita can still run for Prime Minister, the overhang legal jeopardies may influence the coalition to make decision to nominate an alternate which is most likely K Sretha seen as a more moderate candidate. There are backroom deals for BJT and PPRP to vote for him. I don't think the pro-democracy coalition will break off. Just too much to lose for PTP to join with the junta parties. A coalition with the junta is a big betrayal for the Red Shirts stalwarts who fought for them and also a big letdown for the young pro democracy voters who will be the major voting block in 4 years. Better heads will rule within the coalition and especially with MFP who will still take a good portion of the ministerial positions while bidding their time to re-organize for the next election.

I made the comment because the posting was erroneous to comment that the world didn’t give a toss about Thailand. The 2014 coup drew condemnation from UN, HRC, EU and G7 countries. Trade partnerships were put on hold and military aids were withdrawn from USA. The question that should be posted is whether the punitive actions by the world is sufficient to made a change to Thai politics.

You speak for the world?

EC didn't give Pita and his legal team the chance to defend the case before forwarding to Charter Court. The MFP legal team is now accusing EC of committing malfeasance in accordance with Section 157 of the Criminal Code by not exercising any of its functions or wrongfully exercise or dishonestly exercise or omits to excercise. The Charter Court legal process will take months and will be examined by both the prosecution and defense attorneys. There is no jury in the Thai judiciary system and the judge will decide the outcome.

Somehow hosting a cooking show was sufficient to remove an elected prime minister. The court will stoop low for political expediency.

He has the anti graft laws changed to non disclosure for him. Even if he want to declare in the spirit of transparency, the agency that has the legal power is the crooked NACC.

It has been a sad event since the turn of the millennium. 3 elected governments were disrupted by either the agencies, courts or the military. 2 prime ministers have to flee into exile by the politically expedient courts. It is only now that the yellow shirts wake up to witness the cleverly crafted judiciary coup on one of their own. Now they agonized over the unfair treatment of Pita. The red shirts felt the same thrice over.

Let's re-collect Prayut's failures. - massive corruption like the medical glove procurement scandal which caused losses estimated at over 100 B Baht of taxpayer's money and the procurement of ATKs - Failures in handling the Covid-19 pandemic, resulting in the widespread closure of many businesses and an economic meltdown - Budget mismanagement with record high borrowing - Restrictions of righst and liberties of the people through use of LM laws against peaceful protesters. Heavy handed brute means against student protests - Failure to solve economic problems, supported the rich busineeses while ignoring the grievances of the poor and lacking direction in economic recovery - Education reform failures, pushing the Thai educational system to rock bottom among ASEAN countries - Failure to tackle illegal narcotis and other serious crimes

Put that question to the people. More than the majority voted in the previous elections except for 2014 when the yellow shirts and military goons disrupted votings in 64 constituencies. Seem that majority Thais want universal suffrage. Very democratic.

Interesting that K Prayut made this announcement just days before the voting. He is walking away from the monstrosity that he created with his appointed senators and if the senates unanimously vote against K Pita, the blame now totally falls on K Prawit. A cowardice act.

Again I have to remind you that that was an opinion by a group of academics called Siam Prachapiwat and had no legal standing. It is quite similar to the group of activisits saying that Prayut's term of office had expired after 8 years as PM. Move on mate.

So true that the double standard of enforcement is the problem. The military has to be reformed to bring the entity under the control of the government like in most democratic countries and also neighbouring Asean countries like Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia.