Eric Loh

I am expressing more on the extrapolitical factors and the personalities that played key roles in 2 decades of non democratic means to grapped and hold power. Those factors are gone. Thaksin attempt to bring the military under the government failed and scared the establishment. The establishment failed in providing the governments that showed they are better and instead were even more corrupted with no accountability. Their supporters have now turned on them and thus provide a better political environment for the new government to thrive.

It's a new era and past architects of political decisions have passed and the Generals from the Burapha Phayak have been defanged. What is left are the ultra conservatives in the senate that have influence on the next government but they too will be gone by next year. I feel that there will be less political happenings like in the last two decade.

If the Constitution Court accept the case after 13 July based on Section 151 of the Election Law for holding shares in a media company, the criminal procedures will involved many steps and can take months and years. If he is found quity for breaching the law, it can mean prison time and ban politically for an extensive period. The government will simply appoint a Prime Minister to take his place. The key date will be 13 July and if EC could not forward the case to the Court, the senators will be less pressured to abstain or vote no.

The one meeting that I am paying attention will be the EC to discuss whether they have sufficient evidence to forward the case to the Constitution Court. Time is running out for the EC to forward the case before 13 July voting for Prime Minister. If the court accept the case for consideration, it will affect voting on 13 July. It will be reason for senators to abstain from voting and also assert pressure on senators who consider voting for Pita. If EC do not forward the case, the voting chance for Pita will be brighter.

Abstaining by large number of senators will not help Pita. The voting process under the Organic Law 2017 require the prime ministerial candidate to secure a majority of 376 of 750 votes. The Secretariate of the House will call out the names of the MPs and Senators and they can vote as approve, dissaprove or abstain.

We will soon know which of his colleagues will not heed the instruction from the King. The voting is based on open ballot system and participant's choices are not confidential and it will be telecast live.

Good read. Thanks. If Pita failed in his attempt, the sensible route is for Sretha to be nominated and get the full backing of the pro democracy coalition. I think the back room dealing started when Sretha meet Anutin in UK followed by the meeting between Thaksin and Prawit There will be something for BJT and PPRP as a trade off for their votes. I don’t think MFP will be hard done by plan B as Pita will get the deputy prime minister role and also the A listed ministerial positions. The new government has to be formed quickly or the economy will be impacted.

https://live.parliament.go.th/Home/View/1

I hope that K Pita can be elected as PM in the first seating. The government need to be form as soon as possible and approve next year budget. Any delay will be bad for the economy and delay FDI decisions. The dark horse will be whether PPRP will be the spoiler and throw in their nomination for Prawit. This will most certainly upset the apple cart and influence the senator votes. House speaker is sensible to allocate 3 seatings for the PM voting process. The longer it stretched, the quorum may be compromise making harder to achieve the target votes. The economy will take a big hit if the opposition coalition decide to derail and drag out the process. Will depend on the margin of votes on whether K Piya be given a second chance. If the chasm is too wide, the coalition must nominate a more palatable candidate like K Sreetha. Time is tight to form the government and coalition must accept some compromise to keep the junta out of office.

Settle down. It will be DeSantis after Trump grift enough money for himself and opt out of the race. It is all about the money for Trump and his gullible die-hards.

Quite remarkable that the time-line to form the government is moving way ahead of the schedule set by K Wissanu Krea-ngam deputy PM of the caretaker government. The date given by him was August 3 for voting of PM by both houses. This was brushed off with a much earlier date. There seem an air of confidence by the MFP+PTP coalition that they will get this done within 3 sittings. Perhaps the Parliament opening speech by the Majesty to both houses to work for the public gave them that confidence. We will soon see which senators will not heed that message in this open ballot voting.

The fault line is between anti military and the military. Yellow shirts have faded into insignificance. Demography taken a toll on the aging yellow shirts and their leaders. Election has revealed that majority of voters who are educated and middle class want the military out of politics. They formed the bulk of yellow shirts. There wouldn’t be any massive turnout of yellow shirts in Bangkok.

Those yellow shirts have switched to orange in Bangkok. Days of massive yellow shirts gatherings are over.

If they are massive against Pita, Bangkok will be in the colours of UTN and PPRP.

Pray for America and the world that this fascist will not be the next President.

Sometimes the opposite sides is simply down to different perspective to education. Asian cultures encourage children to conform and work hard towards a predetermined goal while western cultures encourage children to be themselves and figure out what they love to do. A child caught in the middle is traumatic and can scar him for life. Both need to work hard to mend their relationship for the sake of the child. The issue does not warrant walking away from the marriage.

Interesting point to note was that 312 votes for MF's candidate against 103 votes for UTN's candidate. No one from the coalition parties broke rank while 84 from the opposition camp didn't vote for their guy.

It’s all over for Prawit and zero chance of any alternative government. Listen to the Majesty opening speech in Parliament.

And then there’s the regrettable incident of July 2. The spectacle of MFP’s fans berating senior Pheu Thai strategists, After reading the news, I think the above was wrongly reported. It was not berating but actually asking the Pheu Thai Party not to abandon their promise to form a government with the MFP.

Never heard them whine about stolen election like a petulant child.

K Arun, my challenge to you is to write an article on the maturity of the establishment and military to recognize the changing landscape and the voices of the people. The cycle of political impasse from repeating coups and attempts to dominate have not yield any improvement of the political structure , massive lost of economic potential and has created deep income inequality division.

Thanks for the article. MFP supporters are mostly urban, educated & middle class who really loathe the Shins and their parties. Make no bones about them; they are yellow shirts who have switched sides. The heckling is expected.

If PT has lot more connection to the senators, Thaksin should be back a long time ago.

Health Minister has been given to K Sudarat. Didn’t you know?

Prayut’s coalition government. Member party Palang Pracharath Party Bhumjaithai Party Democrat Party Chartthaipattana Party Action Coalition Party Thai Local Power Party New Economics Party Chart Pattana Kla Party Thai Forest Conservation Party Thai Nation Power Party People Progressive Party Pheu Chart Thai Party Thai Teachers for People Party Thai People Justice Party Polamuang Thai Party New Democracy Party New Palangdharma Party Tairaktham Party Thai Civilized Party Prachatumthai Party Prachaniyom Party People Reform Party