Eric Loh

Don’t think MFP was preparing to win. I am sure that were surprised with the election outcome. Lots of lesson learnt which will served them well in the next election.

Newin is the founder and shadow leader of BJT just like Thaksin is to PTP. Both hold key decision making for their parties. Anutin was a former TRT MP and had good relationship with Thaksin. If PTP nominate Sretha and stay faithful with the coalition, it will mean that there are back room deals done with BJT and some senators to back their nomination next Thursday. Perhaps go easy on the cannabis regulations which is the flagship policy of BJT. If PTP not successful with their back room dealings, they will invite BJT and CTP to the coalition. I think the first situation is more likely as the Shin family has cultivated strong influences and ties with the elites and military.

On the bright side, Trump can still run in 2028 with more grievances and grifting.

I tend to think that political analyst Thitinan Pongsudhirak had this quite right when he told AFP that the prospect of a military presence in the new government would spark a backlash in a country that is no stranger to political unrest. I will add that the backlash will also manifest in the next election. That will probably be a big deterrent for Phue Thai to consider PPRP or UTN and may even harbour any idea to form a coalition without MFP. I think they will try to bring in the 2 civilian parties in the form of CTP and BJT into the coalition which will be enough to secure the PM position and form the next government. CTP will be the easier target as they have the history of switching allegiance. THeir party leader Vorawut Silp-archa has said that they are willing to form a coalition with any party that wins the next election. Anutin may have said that he will not be involved in a coalition that has MFP but he also said that he will not be join a minority government. In any case, he is not the leader of BJT, The party shadow leader Newin Chidchop hold the power and he had said that there are no permanent friends or foes in Thai politics while trying to mend ties with Thaksin. Another factor is that Thaksin actually has friends in the military that may influence the 1/3 senators that are from military and police. He has pivoted away from his tough stand against the military after the brutal encounters and consequences with the military. Yingluck stayed away from key military appointments and even had Prayut moved up to become the army chief during her tenure. I think there is a real good chance that next Thursday, we may see a new government under PTP.

Clip on Nation showing senators leaving the building. K Pita voting not looking good.

I see that as a future sticky point. The provisional constitution for senate appointment will have to be amended for technical and legal reasons. Some of the reasons are that the key appointment entity which was the NCPO had been dissolved besides the expiration tenure of all appointed senators. The amendment has to be accepted by the House and 1/3 senate and need to be completed before next May. If the next government is to be PTP and the junta parties, there is little chance that they have the support from both houses to make radical amendment like a fully elected upper house. In the respect, we can forget about a unicameral amendment proposition.

My personal opinion is that the military has become too powerful in the last 2 decades for many reasons that can't be discussed. They are responsible for the skewed constitution and appointment of unelected and unaccountable agencies that do the bidding for them. The military is like a defacto government abetted by the elites and neo conservatives. There are some recent attempts to rein them in and reduce their political clout. I hope the next governments can muster support to bring the military under the control of the elected civilian government.

The higher power is also concern that spilled over violent disorder may result in re-setting the constitutional political landscape of Thailand. They may be blamed for being the invisible hand tipping the scale. I am sure there are pressure on the senates to step back but how much.

Still with CISF. Double salary.

I think you meant to post this image.

Curious why you pasted the photo of K Sudarat Keyuraphan, recently retired leader of Thai Sang Thai Party, coalition partner of MFP.

Senators are public servants and are therefore subjected to criticism period. As public servants, they can't ignore the public. They should be respectful to the people and not the reverse. Shut up senators and be thankful that you been paid by the people.

Don't think you did much research. MFP unveiled their foreign policies vision aimed at developing greater international cooperation, promoting human rights and addressing regional challenges after the election at Bangkok's Conradd Hotel. As head of MFP, K Pita presented their foreign policy as Revive, Rebalance and Recalibrate. There was no agreesive stance as you wrongly pointed out. On Mynmar he asked for more humantarian aids and on China, he stressed closer ties with international partners which is a ASEAN's policy too.

Finding out about their unusual wealth should be trending too.

I think nominating Sretha rather than the more popular Paetongtam Shinawatra was a strategic move for reason that you said. I am sure that there are pressure politicall and socially for the impasse to be sorted out quickly and new government can be formed in the current economic downturn. The objections for not voting for K Pita is just centered on the 112 issue. As PTP and especially Sreetha stayed away from 112, the opposition is cornered and may relent. I also think BJT and PPRP oppositions can be won over with some incentives. Don't hink a coup is possible under the curent circumstances.

I too have my doubts about watchman’s integrity and honesty. But I got to cut him some slack for taking an unlikely stance for blaming the elites and conservatives for coups and voicing support for democracy. Despite being an Army general, Prawit Wongsuwan has taken an unlikely stance in politics – he is now blaming the elite and conservatives for coups and voicing support for democracy.

I am sure that 1973 uprising against military dictatorship is in the minds of the establishment as there are similarities with the current political stalemate. Young Thais and sympathetic young military and police personnel can be very violent and unpredictable that will worry the Royal house. I think better heads will prevail to avoid such a disaster.

Prawit has denied speculation as late as 2 July that they is no secret deal to form an alternative government with PTP. He also gave a cryptic comment that his party has not concluded that they will vote as a block with the opposition MPs. There are rumors that he may vote for PTP Sretha and may influence some senators to come on board to break the impasse. PTP being an incumbent political party has better relationship with Prawit and some senators. https://www.thaipbsworld.com/prawit-claims-there-is-no-secret-deal-to-form-alternative-government/

Agree with you. Violent Demonstration like in the past played onto the hands of the military and lose the support of the general public. Something can be learnt from the Philippines People Power movement. Peaceful civil disobedience campaign and calling supporters to boycott publications and companies which are associated with the non democratic group. People power culminated with event that was attended by about 2 million people. A crowd that the authority will find hard to ignore.

Against forum rule to mention the person I am referring.

Possible scenario that the party will be dissolved and the elected MPs will join other parties or MFP has already registered a party in anticipation of such legal jeopardy. The pro-democracy coalition will still hold the majority in Parliament.

Vote of no confidence is the prerogative of the house speaker to accept and house to vote on it. PM play no part. The petition can be a vote off no confidence on the caretaker PM.

MPs have been certified, House speaker elected and Parliament opened by the King. Prayut is still the caretaker PM. House speaker can accept a no confidence petition and with the House majority can force (not call) a snap election.

The MFP + PTP coalition need to stand united. As majority in the lower house, they can force a snap election if the junta and senators continue to play hard ball and continue this charade of stone walling the voting of the coalition candidate and continue with the caretaker government. This is a strong card they have and the junta fear. a snap election after the shenanigans played to the nation wide audience. It will be a backlash by voters that the junta will surely regret.

Any unrest will be a serious concern for the new regime who just assumed the esteem role. The fear for him is that he may be ensnared into the politics and be blamed. He also fear that the unrest may snowball into his domain.