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eisfeld

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Everything posted by eisfeld

  1. By what standard? Compared to other expenses which have much less value I'd say one could argue not enough was invested. For most years the US has invested less than $1B in fusion energy. A tiny rounding error in the federal budget of trillions of dollars. http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2021/ph241/margraf1/
  2. ITER is a research reactor. It has no systems to extract the power and was never planned to be overall net positive. Thus it hasn't even attempted to optimize any of that. The point was that we went from Q = 0.65 to Q = 10 in a few years. Reactors with Q = 25 are already planned. Which means there is a lot of progress. In fact I don't know any other field in energy that has achieved gains in efficiency as fusion has. Are we there in terms of commercial viability? No, but we are actually getting very close.
  3. It's simply not true that progress was pitifull. There has been huge progress. The gamechanger has been superconducting magnets. The claim that the energy put into the plasma represents only around 2% is also not true. Taking ITER which is planned to go live 2025 it'll have a total electrical input of 320MW which generates 50MW plasma heating input. That's 15.6%. And that will produce 500MW of heat output. It is correct that there are further losses and it wont be overall net positive energy gain but they are research reactors after all. The previous record in a tokamak was Q = 0.65 and in two years we are looking at Q = 10. That is a 15x improvement. I call that a big progress. Again, so far these research projects did not have energy efficiency as their goal. Their goal was to solve the incredible engineering challenges in creating and sustaining these plasmas. Only because of the big scientific and engineering wins in the recent years is it that we are seeing the first commercial companies being formed to start work on commercial reactors. Investors wouldn't put billions of dollars into them if they were not getting viable.
  4. From my experience that's just popular misunderstandings by people who are not really familiar with the projects. The question is *what* was 10 years away? Nobody serious was working on commercial reactors or even dreaming about having them in those timeframes. Could have been a scientific milestone with a research reactor being 10 years away back then. And then through the grapevine it becomes "fusion energy 10/20/30 years away".
  5. I can't share this view. We've made tremendous progress especially in the last 10 years or so. Fusion is an incredible engineering challenge. I mean we are talking creating a plasma that is 100 million degrees hot, containing that with insanely strong magnetic fields created by superconducting magnets because anything that it would touch would instantly melt and evaporate. Just in a few months ago we've achieved scientific breakeven for the first time in history (Q >= 1) which means it produced more power through the fusion reaction than had to be put into heating the plasma. There are several research reactors in various countries showing steady progress. Just building such a reactor can take a decade. And then we are seeing the first commercial reactors getting funded just in the recent years. I'm 100% convinced that we'll see the first commercial reactors going on the grid in the next 15 years. CFS plans completion of their prototype reactor in 2025 to demonstrate overall net positive energy generation and then early 2030s a proper commercial reactor. The potential of fusion energy can't be overstated. Abundant clean, stable and safe energy can transform society because energy is the limiting factor for a lot of things.
  6. Thanks for posting this supporting info. I've read through these laws in the past and that's why I remember it's the house master or house holder who has the responsibility to file TM30. It's never the responsibility of the guest who is staying. There is actually a seperate law (Section 37) that requires the guests to report to the local police station but that seems to be not enforced.
  7. I mentioned it in another thread about the indictment but it really looks like for the first time a lot of supporters are turning away from Trump after seeing the indictment. Even his own lawyers did it. Then he tried to get a few high profile law firms on bord and collected a bunch of declines. A lot of his supporters are on the right of the political spectrum and when it comes to putting the nation at risk they also can agree that's a no-no.
  8. Not sure what the purpose of your last sentence was but if an immigration office asks for a TM30 receipt then that could mean they are too lazy or incapable of looking up your TM30 info in the system because they should already have that info. It's immigration asking for something from immigration, think about it. I just can't see them accepting a TM30 receipt that is years old unless they really don't care and just want *something*. Also a lot of hotels do not submit TM30s, especially smaller ones. That's why we can read of crackdowns in areas like Phuket on hotels not doing them. I don't know what hotels you stayed at, maybe none filed TM30s. But you can't say that no hotels file TM30s, that's evidently wrong. So not sure what your actual point is.
  9. Why do you hope so? You are probably confusing fusion with fission (what happens in nuclear reactors) which has a chain reaction which we all know can end very badly if not "managed". The beauty of fusion reactors like this tokamak is that there is no such chain reaction that grows exponentially. In fact you need to maintain several things like the plasma or the magnetic containment active or it'll just stop the reaction. In other words: With fission (nuclear reactors) the trick is to prevent the reaction from getting out of hand. With fusion the trick is to make the reaction happen at all.
  10. They don't need your passport number. They don't need your name written in English. They can use your pink id card number and they can use your name written in Thai script. Your pink id card number is obviously tied to your passport and english name in the immigration systems. How do I know some hotels filed a TM30? Because I've seen my TM30 history which an immigration officer was kind enough to show me. Also I've been handed a TM30 receipt once.
  11. How do you know the hotel is not doing a TM30? I always check in with my Thai driver license. They still do a TM30 sometimes. Sometimes not. Depends on the hotel.
  12. You didn't miss anything because it shouldn't be your concern as you are not the host.
  13. You can't make general statements like that. It depends on who is considered the house master as the house master is the one who is obliged to file TM30 notices. That can be a condo manager or rental agent but doesn't have to be.
  14. Latest financial filings with the DBD showed 10M profit on 23M revenue in 2021. Filings for 2022 were submitted May 10th but haven't been published yet as far as I could see.
  15. Ukraine is "having problems" with Russia? That even beats "special military operation". You don't seem to want to acknowledge that Putin launched a brutal invasion trying to take over another country.
  16. 1. How do you explain that Trump was indicted by a Grand Jury who is not part of the government? A random selection of Florida residents, his homebase. It wasn't Biden, the DOJ or FBI. 2. The article nowhere mentions that his numbers are rising. It just concludes that he is still the frontrunner amongst republican candidates.
  17. Weather is not consistent, that should not surprise anyone. Some years it'll rain more and some years less. If last year you ended up with a low point of say 20% then next year you might end up with 10% if it rains a lot less. Really no surprise. The consumption however steadily grows with more people and increased usage. That means each year you will run closer to critical levels. The only way to counter this is by building more water storage facilities like dams. Rationing is only a temporary bandaid. The real issue is that there was no proactive planing. Just reactive action when things are a real problem, that's when suddenly the responsible people see the issue. Too late.
  18. That one's easy to explain. It's because you make up some fantasy that doesn't reflect reality. Doesn't matter how much evidence is presented, you either outright reject it all or try to spin it into something it's not. That's why you are the odd one out. Compared to what? A McDonalds restaurant? There are standards for something to be designated secure location and his club is not even close to meeting those. It's a complete joke - kindergarten level excuses.
  19. Please reflect a moment on what you said. You just claimed that the Obama administration (amongst others) who is center-left installed a far right government in Ukraine and started this whole thing but that the US should now cut all help and leave the Europeans to sort out this huge mess.
  20. It could be a bit of a turning point. I haven't before seen as many Trump supporters turn away from him as in the past days and weeks. When looking at the people who still try to argue in favor of him in this thread the arguments they present are so far out there ("were just personal letters to Kim Jong Un", "the FBI planted things", "he declassified documents so it's totally fine to have plans of a secret nuclear program lying around a place where thousands of random people go in and out") plus the severity of the matter being so high that I notice former Trump supporters seeing the end of the road at last. The risk for the republican party to support him is growing over time as the stakes are getting raised and things escalate more and more into extremes. I'm just an outside observer and support neither democrats nor republicans but imho the republicans would be wise to drop him at this point and regroup behind someone less extreme. They should have enough good policies to rally people behind instead of playing this dangerous game of escalating tensions in the foundations of society.
  21. Weird reporting. There is no such act. MPs can be members of the House or Senate. They probably mean the act regarding election of members of the House of Representatives. Section 42(3) of that is just the prohibition on being a shareholder of a media company, nothing in there speaks of any awareness. And section 154 is just specifying the punishment for people who brake section 63 which in turn talks about how much a party or candidate can spend. So you can't even violate section 154 because it doesn't state what can or can't be done. And how does it make sense to dismiss the complaints but then go and investigate exactly what the complaint containted?
  22. A grand jury in Florida indicted him and he has to report to the federal court in Miami on Tuesday.
  23. A random sample of 2 is not statistically meaningful in any way to draw any conclusions even if the odds are not high. It's a high profile case and if there'll be jail sentences then Trump will 100% guaranteed appeal this thing all way to the Supreme Court. All this judge can do is stall but she'll be walking on thin ice if it's not perfectly justified. I don't expect it to be over very quickly.
  24. And that's the big issue society is facing. There is a sizeable amount of people that became so far removed from rational thought that they'd rather invoke completely absurd explanations than accept something that goes against their position. Absolutely no amount of facts or evidence will be able to convince them otherwise. Now, there are still enough rationally thinking people left in critical positions but the threat is real. I hope the fanatics will not become too violent should a prison sentence come down from this case eventually.
  25. And the italian mafia really are worried about your little shop when they say "It would be a shame if anything were to happen to it". Vailed suggestive remarks, a way to state something without becoming legally liable for it.
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