ourmanflint

Malaysia more than likely just a week or two further along the curve than Thailand. 
Very little chance Thailand will avoid same fate

Thank god it's finally over for you guys. Well done everyone

10 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

You mean that Thailand is hot and has UV like India and Brazil?

 

Will that be your excuse when there isn’t a catastrophe?

No, it should worry you that even with those environmental factors at play, the virus can get out of control. We were talking about how UK and Thailand differed. 

3 minutes ago, DavisH said:

I dont think it insidates much at all. It's just 2/100,000 people for excess deaths. This is 2 above the average for the past 5 years. If you look at other countries, they give unusual results. The US had 90K excess deaths, aside from those attriubuted to covid. The excess deaths in the Philippines was heavily negative, despite having a lot of covid deaths. 

Terrible logic.

It indicates just what it should, that excess deaths being reported during so called covid waves are magnitudes higher than official reports. That is one big coincidence if not related to covid. 12000 extra people in Thailand did during 1st, 2nd and now 3rd waves of covid, they didn't do that at any other time

5 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

We could compare how Britain has handled the epidemic, compared with Thailand. There is no reason to believe that Thailand will do as poorly as British efforts, pre-vaccination.

The virus in Thailand will spread more slowly than the UK, because conditions are not ideal for it. Too much UV, too hot, but it will continue to spread quietly. 

It will not stop spreading until it has run out of hosts to infect

11 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

AFAIK, the way they came to the 1,300+ new hospital beds per week projection was to assume an overall five percent positivity rate -- meaning all those folks would have to find space somewhere in the hospital and related facilities system.

 

A 5% positivity rate was the worst London had during our peak back In January and February. 5% is extremely serious

edit: Sorry 5% infection rate, positivity was 25%

edit: UK went into 4 month lockdown at 5% positivity

17 minutes ago, rabas said:

 

But cases are not distributed uniformly was the point, viruses don't work that way. Just because  a sample in Klong Toei is 10% positive doesn't suddenly make 10% of Buriram positive, which was imped in the post.

Actually no, that is exactly how viruses work. If one area has a specific infection rate for a set population density, then you can expect similar sized populations to have similar infection rates, they just won't have them at the same time. There is uniformity over time.

edit: Actually we're probably saying the same thing from different angles, all things being equal, infection rates will be very similar

7 minutes ago, rabas said:

 

Rolled out globally that's 780,000,000 cases so far. ???

Is that really that unbelievable? 154 million confirmed cases so far

7 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Sadly no data for Thailand nor India.

Of course it's there, why would I have provided a link? This is the weekly number, 1037 for March

No point in putting all your resources putting out a fire in a single area, if sparks are flaring up everywhere else. 
 

3 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Really?

 

Are you really suggesting that the progression of the epidemic is exactly the same in every country? Tell me how the progression of the epidemic in China or Vietnam has anything to do with the future of the epidemic in Thailand?

the progression depends on the variant by and large, and yes of course the progression is the same, given it has enough hosts to infect, it’s a virus not a conscious lifeform. 
Govts and health professionals can try to intervene to moderate the progress, but only vaccines will stop it. 
Epidemiology is a well understood science, and the fact that you repeatedly comment without understanding what it reveals about this virus, is worrisome. 

These clusters will keep popping until there is a full lockdown or everyone is vaccinated. Either way this will drag on and on for quite a while. The biggest worry is that clusters join up and lead to a full blown India style collapse, which is perfectly feasible given Thailands lack of testing and control

44 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Interesting Thailand graphic from the data analysis source Our World in Data showing that Thailand's peak of new COVID cases based on a seven-day rolling average actually hit its high point thus far on April 29, and has been declining since, at least through data as of yesterday.

 

The Thai Ministry of Public Health reports daily COVID case totals for the country, which have been bouncing up and down since hitting a one-day peak on April 27 of 2,179 new cases. But for whatever reason, the MoPH has never publicly reported Thailand's seven-day rolling averages in its daily briefings, even though those are a key measurement used elsewhere.

 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/thailand?country=~THA#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-cases

 

 

 

7 day rolling average of deaths lags cases by approximately 3 weeks so deaths today could be from cases in the first 10-15 days of April. This means deaths could hit 3 digits in the coming weeks

Why bother? It peaked a week ago as we all know, everything is going to be ok now isn't it?