kwilco

27 minutes ago, Blumpie said:

They probably can, maybe they can't.

In the end, these arguments are completely irrelevant.  

Thailand needs to get this under control.  Either lockdowns or vaccine.  What will it be? 

It is crucial to managing Covid

1 hour ago, Poet said:

Okay. Perhaps you should be the one to break this terrible news to the Israelis.
 

Yes, viruses mutate. Vaccines are adapted accordingly. That is how vaccinology operates. Not sure how you think this adds to your argument.

 

Verifiably vaccinated visitors from countries with extremely low levels of active cases, thanks to mass vaccination, arriving on planes containing only vaccinated passengers and crew, pose zero biological risk to Thailand. In fact, infinitely less risk than the current testing and quarantine system.

I honestly am amazed that so few people on this forum, supposedly familiar with Thailand, understand what is happening here. Thailand has almost 5,000 KM of land borders with some extremely poor and undeveloped countries with barely any medical care. It has as a massive reliance on migrant labor and an uncontrollable flow of people over those land borders. None of the outbreaks were due to tourists flying in.

Anyone who has completed a course of one of the Western vaccines, and who is not in one of the high risk categories, has nothing to worry about. His chances of getting infected by any variant is far lower. His chance of getting sick if infected is far lower. His chance of needing to be hospitilized is essentially zero. His chance of passing it on, if he does get infected, are about a third what they would have been. When he returns to his home country, most of the people he is in prolonged contact with will probably be just as resistant.

Israel's experience suggests that the "zero covid" level of active cases (100 per million population) kicks in when about 60% of the population are fully-vaccinated. This means that the spread is significantly retarded even at a level that every country will be able to achieve.

The virus may sweep through the remaining blocks of the population who do not wish to get vaccinated, but, individual-by-individual, they gain natural immunity, which further retards the spread.

I do not understand why people are focusing on the scare stories being used to prevent people from getting too relaxed as we head into summer, rather than watching the actual figures in the countries that have vaccinated the majority of their populations with good vaccines.

 

Except that's not how it works..... and Thailand had 40 million visitors before Covid.

Vaccinated peopkecan still transmit and in Thailand we've already seen what a new strain can potentially do to a healthcare system that simply cant take overload 

On 5/24/2021 at 7:13 AM, Samui Bodoh said:

find them, generally speaking, quite well-educated and erudite,

QED!!

51 minutes ago, Poet said:

The vaccines were always going to be presented as "the solution", regardless of whether they worked or not. Luckily, it turns out they do work.

"The vaccines were alwaysgoing to be presented as "the solution", regardless of whether they worked or not. Luckily, it turns out they do work."

 

sadly this is a misunderstanding. Vaccines only work if herd immunity is achieved - worldwide...... otherwise travel will result in hotspots exploding around the world, and the resulting trace restrictions both by host countries and countries of visitor origin.

The next problem is variants - the more the virus spreads, the more variants will emerge and even now there are concerns about how effective some vaccines are against the "Indian" variant. We know that 2 vaccines work but not quite as effectively as against the other variants.

This means like the flu vaccines there will have to be monitoring in  perpetuity of the virus and constant changes in how it is handled.

1 minute ago, Poet said:

They aren't working for the people.

 

Individual businesses may re-open with different owners but none of them are complicated. The masseurs, the cooks, the bar girls, the retail staff, they haven't been executed, they still exist, and will all come flowing back as soon as businesses start re-opening.

They will start re-opening the day it becomes apparent that mass tourism is rumbling back to life. That will be the day that they announce that the holders of vaccine passports can forego testing, paperwork, quarantine, and special insurance. When that happens, every flight scheduled for Thailand will sell every seat and the airlines will rush to resurrect their canceled routes.

This is, in fact, a massive opportunity for the people who Prayuth & Co. do work for, the elites. They own most of the buildings and will be among the few to still have operating cash.
 

Like after the Tsunami on the West coast, it will be an opportunity for those with capital to take over from the small businesses....... the self-employed will lose out and have to become waged employees of the rich.

 

there is still a general misconception that Covid will be "over". ...It's never going to be over, it will have to be managed and lived with. Thailand like the rest of the world is going to need long term plans to allow tourists to return in their millions. As yet I don't see any plans for the future being set in place.

Before Covid -

Samui is the second largest island in Thailand after Phuket. It is easy enough. To circumnavigate the island in half a day. (roadworks permitting)

 

I’ve lived and worked both on Samui and in Chonburi/Rayong area and although the shopping on Samui is OK, it is in not in any way as comprehensive as the facilities in Chonburi and Rayong region.

 

Shopping - Samui Has a Central/Robinsons shopping mall It has slightly less variety and stock than some of the Centrals I’ve visited around Thailand, e.g Chonburi, Pattaya Udon.

Tops supermarket is expensive but carries most of the Western foods carried in other Supermarkets with a high foreign customer base.

 

There are a couple of Big C Supermarkets. There are 2 large Tesco-Lotus - being taken over by CP who own the- 2 Macros and the 7/11 Franchises scattered all over the island.

Tesco’s opened the first supermarket-cum-mall on Samui about 20 years ago. They are now very much in second place to the impressive Central edifice at Chaeng.

 

There is a large French contingency on the island and consequently more French café-boulangeries than you could shake a stick at. There are various “ethnic” eateries and suppliers, Russian, Austrian German, Italian, Japanese, Chinese etc etc.

 

I’ve lived and worked both on Samui and in Chonburi/Rayong area and although the shopping on Samui is OK, it is in not in any way as comprehensive as the facilities in Chonburi and Rayong region.

 

There is only one “real” town on the island; the port of Nathon, the rest is just untrammelled string development along the island’s ring road, Chaweng being the biggest concentration...

Nathon has most of the local government offices etc etc. It also has a Tesco/lotus. A lot of “arty-crafty shops that cater for the visiting cruise ships. (Prices tend to go up on those days!).

 

In general the internet is VERY fast and reliable (within Thai parameters) depending on your supplier you should expect 100mbps and over. The coverage isn’t universal; the more rural areas are still awaiting their cables.

There are computer repair shops, phone shops and motor repairs as well as car dealerships. I’m sorry to say that there is a plethora of rip-off merchants who take advantage of the fact you are on an island.

 

Both power and water supplies can on occasion be interrupted, but thw situation is improving. 

Before moving into a place you need to establish the situation with utilities - mains water? /internet availability/ drainage etc.

 

Garbage is a serious pollution problem on Samui - the dump was overfilled with 300,000 tons of untreated garbage which is now slowly being shipped to the mainland. But it is not known what is has done to the water table - many places still use wells. Though now, the island is connected to a mains water supply from the mainland. Fly-tipping is still common.

Air quality is in general good - sometimes crop burning in Malaysia covers the island in dust.

Although sun is the main characteristic, Samui has a quite wet climate with and extra wet season around November December. Flash flooding has been common, I doubt if any of the new drains installed with have a significant effect on this. 

 

 

I use local Taxis occasionally and negotiate fares - it helps if you speak Thai. I’ve never needed a grab. 

Most people hire local cars or motorcycles - Samui has one of the highest m/c death rates in the country - largely down to foreigners on motorbikes. Although (long term) rentals are very cheap, you need to be very careful about insurance too.

 

There are 4 private hospitals on Samui and one large government one. Overcharging and misdiagnosis are rampant. It’s best if you are recommended to a hospital by a friend of the owners or member of staff. For minor aliment and injuries, you are much better off using local clinics. Govt or otherwise. Pharmacies abound too.

 

“. Is it viable to go to shopping in Surat Thani” - the boat ride to the mainland takes over an hour on the car ferry and costs about 450 baht e/w.

This for me is the killer of living on Samui, you need to add at least 3 hours on any trip planned off the island and back.

Suratthani probably has less in the way of shopping than the island.

 

Samui prices are higher than most on mainland Thailand and the overwhelming presence of foreigners means that you need to look hard to find decent “proper” Thai food. T’s there but don’t expect to finds it on the beaches.

 

Samui is smothered by massages- from the deadly Thai massage to the “wash and w**k”. It is also full of “alternative” medical therapies and healers (charlatans), but Koh Pha Ngan is the capital for that kind of nonsense.

 

You need a special kind of mindset to live on an island .... The thing about Samui is it has attracted a class of foreigner that basically gradually become stir crazy - they are not interested in Thailand or the world around them, they want to sit on a beach in “paradise”. I’d suggest that they are navel-gazing, but most don’t even have to savvy to do that. Going off the island is an anathema to them. The result is a rather incestuous society of sunset-gazers who have dropped out of real life. Conspiracy theories and crank medicines prevail amongst a group largely bereft of any real critical thinking, who mostly if not detesting Thai people are unduly suspicious of them.

 

Samui is desperate to open up to tourism again (10 million people  year!), but at present has various restrictions and checks on visitors. Even those from different regions in Thailand. They have not detected any case on the island for several days.

 

Like others on this thread, I’d suggest you need to visit Samui, either for a few months or at several times of the year. This would give you an idea of climate and whether or not you are prepared to put a ferry between you and the mainland.

For ... Samui is an island that has a very high standard of facilities catering for the enormous population of Europeans who live and visit there.

 

Against .... Samui is an island that has a very high standard of facilities catering for the enormous population of Europeans who live and visit there.

 

Remember...its an ISLAND!

 

11 hours ago, webfact said:

one shot

only one shot

Basically Covid is showing the limitations of the Thai Healthcare system - all face and no substance

The very existence of this zoo shows how completely out of step Thailand is with wildlife welfare and conservation in general. 

It is a glaring example of the shortcomings of national legislation.

Who in their right mind would stay in Myanmar these days???

On 5/9/2021 at 10:18 AM, GreasyFingers said:

Its a favorite and you have not even tried it?

A vaccine connoisseur? I wonder what next?

On 4/24/2021 at 9:06 AM, ukrules said:

Most people will be vaccinated by next year some time and this will all be over.

Most certainly not.....IF the vaccines cover 70% of the population by then, it will be a miracle. They firstly need TWO jabs......then to suggest it will be "all over" is just completely ignoring the facts. Covid is not going away at all, it may be more under control, but Covid is here for the foreseeable future. And an almost inevitable consequence of this is that EVERYONE is going to need booster jabs at least on a yearly basis. I can't see Thailand being particularly efficient at any of this.

The current situation re vaccinations is pretty dismal ....

"Thailand had until last month experienced only minor outbreaks and has been slow to procure and administer COVID-19 vaccines, with only 1.6 million doses used so far.

Health Minister Anutin Charnvirankul said on Friday he expects 10 million to 20 million doses of the Pfizer (PFE.N) vaccine to be available in the second half of the year." - Reuters

 

that means probably less than 1/3 will be vaccinated by October.

 

so anyone thinking "it will all be over" has their head either in the clouds or in the sand.

4 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

What is the positivity rate in Myanmar? 5%?

OK, to be fair, the really sick will of course not travel.

Covid is easily transmitted by symptomless carriers.

4 hours ago, ezzra said:

This COVID business will not go away as long as unchecked foreigners and others crosses uncontrolled and unguarded borders between Thailand and other neighboring countries and until they will find a solutions how to either minimize or stop it all together, this COVID will be alive and well and killing Thai people and the Thai economy...

Every country has ingress from foreigners to some extant - this is unavoidable. The problem is a governments ability to monitor and continue. Unfortunately the Thai authorities apart from draconian lockdowns have very little else in their arsenal. They have a healthcare service that could not contain a big outbreak, very poor statistical gathering and collation and a vaccine program best with changed and delays.

 

Thailand basically locked its doors to 40 million people and that means the amount coming through is statistically negligible, what is of concern is the authorities to act rather than apportion blame.

the main characteristic of vaccination in Thailand is how slowly it is being implemented.

7 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

I plan to get vaccinated again, even though I have had 2 jabs of Moderna. Getting a different type of vaccine later this year may both extend my immunity and give me wider protection against future mutations. 

 

Or I might die from the combination. 

Nothing to support that theory.

18 hours ago, morrobay said:

I'm not afraid of dogs - they are afraid of me. 

So far... 

5 hours ago, kingofthemountain said:

Answering to a question with another question is never a good sign

usualy you lost a lot of credibilitiy doing that

i still don't really know what is your goal or your plan 

you never answered to this important question too that i asked to you last sunday

Yes I have you just don't understand

6 hours ago, huangnon said:

 

Where do you live now?

If you know of the local protests etc then your previous comments contradict you.

 

you realise that location is not a valid argument? 

This announcement seems to overlook the rasons for vaccination.

I would say that everyone in the groups outlined should be vaccinated regardless of their nationality. If living in Thailand Covid can't read their passport and transmission continues as usual.

 

 

Now making expats pay or contribute is a different matter...... they should have insurance anyhow

1 hour ago, Brierley said:

I sense that you don't understand how things work here. It's all well and good to have ideals and principles and to fight for good causes etc etc but they have limited effect in Thailand because there is almost no enforcement of any aspect of life here. Arguably, enforcement of foreigners visa's is the most policed aspect of life here.

As a long time resident and worker in that region, I was fully aware of both the problems and the protests of the locals. I suspect you are out of touch.

9 hours ago, Brierley said:

until the general population makes its displeasure known, until the medical and scientific community initiates enough studies and produces enough damning evidence, nothing much is going to change.

There are many reports and citizen protests, the problem is th dictatorial nature of the government that has more or less absolute power to do nothing. 

IEAT has set up a relief fund to help fishermen in the Rayong area....... their industry has been destroyed by the development of the new port. However this really is nothing more than hush money as their industry will never recover.