SCOTT FITZGERSLD

1 hour ago, AussieBob18 said:

The death rate is not 43% - that is a false assumption and wrong.  

2502 deaths from 31506 equates to 7.9%.

But that is also a false assumption - the 31506 are those very sick and tested - most people  get mild symptoms - some none.

 

China has 3231 deaths from 81116 and that equates to 3.9% - but that is also false assumption for same reasons.

 

It will only be when they test many people later and sample who has the specific antibodies to then be able to calculate the true infection rate and the true mortality rate.  Right now it is the sick and risky that are being tested - it is too early to state the death rate or infection rate. The indicators, based on past viral infections is that it is highly contagious and that the death rate (entire popluation) will be about 1%.  But no one knows for sure.  

 

What you are saying is that the death rate from driving on Thailand roads is 43%. You are only measuring those involved in serious accidents and taken to hospital.  The actual death rate is much much lower - but still way too high.

 

 

MAYBE ITALY's mistake is to impose a siege on it's citizens?

maybe the english way - of exposing the population to the virus so they will develope

a "herd immune" is the right way?

holland and sweden are also not imposing total lockout and they are much better than italy.

so what is it, a traveling virus?

he finished with wuhan now he moved to milano?

too many strange things with this virus.

a bio-weapon lab just near the market where it all started, 

than thousands of dead and blood coughing people, and now

it is all finished in one day, and oh, by the way, some chinese sceintists

who happan to leave somewhere around that lab, now claim they found a vaccine

and want to register a patent in the US.

11 hours ago, natway09 said:

Until they realize that all international & provincial travel is stopped around the world no predictions. Chinese & Hong Kongers  still arriving,,,, crazy

With the Thai PM ignoring the 2 most specialized Doctors in the country you ask me about "normal" ????     Maybe never here

 

that's because it is very hard to decide on stopping all travel.

it acctually means death for many businesses , that will fall and never come back.

i still think that many more will die from this panick policies, than from the virus itself.

On 3/18/2020 at 8:20 PM, ukrules said:

Imperial College released a 20 page report on this - this report is why the governments of the world acted immediately and started lockdowns based on its content

 

There are two links.

 

The first link is a summary of the report - it's not from the usual twitter rubbish - it's a well written summary full of relevant information from the longer report reformatted using the threadreader app :

 

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1239975682643357696.html

 

The second link is the original report from Imperial College which is much more lengthy and detailed - the above summary is much more suitable for most of us - me included

 

Full report : https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

 

A little note : This will happen in stages according to the report, lockdowns followed by periods where the virus spreads again followed by lockdowns until vaccines are produced and everyone is innoculated.

 

It will likely drag on for years apparently.

 

This is the full text of the summary :

 

all this atricle is pure rubbish, but it is propably the one that WHO used to scare 

governments around the world.

what are governments? a bunch of politicians who are very good maybe in politics,

but are not expert in pandemics and viruses.

the world's economy is acctually collapsing now, because of those idiots.

so who the heck am i to call them idiots?

i am just someone who watch youtube and saw the case of taiwan - how taiwan

won over the virus before it even started !!

to begin with, they identified it even before the china mainland crooks, and

to continue, they did not belive any word and number coming out of the CCP

mouths.

than they just did what they did during the SARS outbreak - they have the experience - they

did it in a nice and friedly way, and they are allmost corona free !! A M A Z I N G 

1 minute ago, Tagged said:

Suggesting overstay, is the most stupid thing to do! 

overstay is not allways a bad idea.

his chances of getting caugth are very slim.

anyway he will stay at his room most of the time, as the whole world

is closed.

than when he leaves, after 3-4 weeks or months, he just pay the fine and

can get a cheaper flight home.

this might even save his lives because france is going to hell soon.

and i just heard a german sceintist saying there is out of control hysteria around this virus,

and someone has financial and political interests in spreading this "satanic" fear and panick.

4 minutes ago, Tagged said:

We really do not know that yet!

we do know it.

for a fact.

simply go to hospital and see if it is full with thousands of sick people.

it is really scary to see how the world can be shut down in a mattar of days

by a bunch of idiots

i think thailand has passed the danger of this virus.

this virus is indeed cold countries virus and is not so succesfull in hot countries.

the govenment don't lie. the numbers of infected is low indeed,

the proof for it is that the hospitals are not crowded with sneezing and blood coughing

people.

so now the thai authorities are just following measures implmented by european cold 

countries. histeric catastrophic measures. more people will die from this panick than from the virus.

she is not blonde. and yet...

y

Just now, Metropolitian said:

I would not leave, this is my home

yep, but some people are just tourists, i know of people

in china who are just stucked there for months !

Just now, Orac said:

talking months rather than weeks.

whaaat? people will get stucked for months????

Just now, Orac said:

wait it out

how long will it take?

Just now, RichardColeman said:

And creative accountancy

there is a simple way to check if infections in thailand are high - go to the hospital

and see if it's crowded. 

no, thailand will not hit hard , virus wise, but the economy will suffer.

Just now, Canuck1966 said:

This is the horde of people awaiting health inspections after international flights into

in Chicago. A social-distancing nightmare!

woooooooow what a nightmare !!!!

when will it stop ????

3 hours ago, HOAX said:

Norway with a population of barely 5 million has over 1100 cases officially and has said they stopped testing people

wow this is scary...

2 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

why did it take so long for him to respond it wasn't me

maybe he has few personalities and he tried to remember what the other one did.

THIS reminds me when i was cheated once by a tour agent.

she took from me a deposit for an air ticket - the full amount.

i believed her because the wall behind her was full of passport photos of thousands 

of "happy customers" , farang tourists.

but few days later when i came to collect my ticket, the whole office disapeared

together with my money.

few days later she called me and said : "i did not steal your money".

i asked: "where are you? where is my money?"

and she shouted: "NO, I DID NOT STEAL YOUR MONEY". and hanged.

so i guess this is how it goes in thailand.

"no i did not post those mesages"

"no i did not smuggle heroin".

"no, i did not shoot the sheriff".

case closed.

On 3/14/2020 at 1:51 AM, AussieBob18 said:

will it lead to Thailand changing those anti-western Expat policies

Thailand does not have anti western policies, but military like policies and pro money policies.

When the military took over they decided to do just that - take over, and started organise and

control more. it is not specifically against westerners, but just the asian way of control.

you can find the same measures implemented in japan, singapore and china.

but if you have money, no problem. for example, owners of elite visa or investment visa

are exempt from 90 days reporting, TM30, ext.

I think it is a very dangerous situation and that is why i cancelled my visit to

THAILAND allthough it cost me dearly.

Indeed if the virus will beak thailand the way it is doing not to Italy, foreigners, or farang

as the locals call them, might find themselves in great danger. Not only from thai gangs and

criminals, but also from security forces who might find them as easy target.

as Pol Pot, the butcher from cambodia, said in his trial: "ASIA can be a wild place".

this comes from a man who did not hesitate to kill one third of his own people...

madness can break out in an unexpected way, once the bodies start piling up.

i've just red an article that says that this virus crisis might even lead to a new war

between china + china proxies and the farang world.

amazing story.

but i can confirm that there is a real worldwide shortage of masks.

many friends of mine asked many pharmacies in few countries - there

are no masks at all !!