2 hours ago, KhunLA said:

Since most most folks do short trips, driving around town vs long O&A, it accomplishes the same thing.   Although I'd think PHEV, would get a better (only) incentive, as can operate in full electric mode.  The others just seem like simple marketing to me.

I can't see many people buying PHEV at the moment cheapest being B1.4 million

if the new BYD Qin Plus EV DM-i Phev comes to Thailand at similar pricing to China 405,000 baht Yes I sure that would take away sales from Honda City HEV and Toyota Yaris Cross HEV 

https://ev.iphonemod.net/byd-new-ev-platform-low-cost-battle-gas-car-sale/

4 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

I suspect when the incentives cease the prices may stay the same.

 

In any event, EV’s are coming down in price because the battery prices are expected to halve this year.

 

I don’t ever perceive a scenario where EV drivers are penalized over ICE drivers. That would be self defeating to most governments.

I have seen posts on this thread where the expectation is that current vehicles will drop by a further 50% with the new batteries I personally don't think this will happen more than likely the new batteries will be installed on new models

My understand is the wholesale battery price may reduce by 50% battery supplier to Brand

not Brand to end customer

Current Byd atto3 extended model B950K 

Byd are talking about reducing price with Byd e 4.0 platform I seen 20% reduction being mention

so if we take 20% off the B950K price that brings price down to B760K if you were to reduce that price by 50% it would take atto3 price down to B380K 

if you were to extend price cuts for the rest of BYD range Extended Dolphin B200k and BYD Seagull  not yet for sale in Thailand down to B50k-B100k I can't see this happening myself

I agree with you that where EV drivers wouldn't be  penalized over ICE drivers but equally I don't see a scenario where business owners will be penalized for using ICE vehicles when at the moment there is no viable alternative available

And I don't see a scenario where EV drivers would have a get out of jail card regarding taxes on fuel

and while I agree putting extra taxes on electricity wouldn't work as that would fuel inflation for everyone I suspect they will increase road tax on ev's to include an amount for loss fuel revenue

9 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

Quite the opposite until EV adoption is unstoppable.  The governments "WANT" people to switch to EV

I think you will find they don't want people to switch regardless of cost

and they have extended the incentive scheme for hybrid manufacturer for 2 more years

19 minutes ago, BKKBike09 said:

You can bet that governments will start to tax EV users more aggressively to make up for lost fuel taxes.

 

The advance of tech will make things like road use pricing much easier to implement. 

 

As EV adoption ticks up, the subsidised incentives to own are going to evaporate faster than water on a Bangkok pavement in April (bringing this back to EVs in Thailand).

When you look at EV 3.0 subsidy finished 31st December 2023 B150,000 vs current  EV 3.0 subsidy B100,000

and then take into account BYD price reductions on 2023 models of B250,000 

The cost of buying a 2023 model BYD in 2024 must have been cheaper under current  EV 3.0 subsidy B100,000 than last years EV 3.0 subsidy

4 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

 

Probably the range available on full charge will be the best indicator.  When you come to sell at a few years old, potential buyers will want to see that.

 

 

I expect that to happen in the UK/EU but a few years away, I doubt we will see it in Thailand in the next 10-20 years.

 

It's not really possible to tax the fuel for EV's because we charge at home, government practice will be to increase the taxes on fuel and polluting vehicles to encourage people to switch to EV, it's likely to be both fuel tax and annual road tax.  They will gradually make it uneconomical to run an ICE vehicle.

Taxing ICE wouldn't happen as that impacts business which in turn increase's inflation

more likely to increase road tax on ev's to include an amount for loss fuel revenue

7 hours ago, KhunLA said:

I wonder what the ICEV will be worth in 2034, with the ongoing tech improvements, cheaper batteries and price wars of EV.   if lucky, same petrol prices in 2034, doubtful as may be a niche market then.   

 

Who would be buying, as it's a hard sell now, especially if you are one to keep your vehicle 10-20 years.   Only those that can't charge at home, or impatiently on the road all the time are avoiding EV.

 

Degradation is minimal, as I calculated <4% over our 8 yr warranty period, based on 1 yr use & degradation.

Sales figures indicated it's a easy sell for ICEV

In 2022 pickup trucks accounted for 45.7% of all vehicles sold in Thailand.

and not many mainstream EV pickup trucks in Thailand

The stats show plenty of people buying ICEV in Thailand compared to EV

Total number of ICEV sales for 2024 R.Y.1 Private passenger car is 95,960

Total number of EV sales for 2024 R.Y.1 Private passenger car is 8,636

https://autolifethailand.tv/ev-register-march-2024-thailand/

ICEV value in 2034 will largely depend on availability if more people looking to purchase than numbers available price will increase 

If we want to look at niche market car buyers in Thailand this forum represents a niche market with approx 300,000 western expats living in Thailand

https://aseannow.com/topic/1320653-how-many-foreigners-living-in-thailand/

and the number of registered R.Y.1 cars in Thailand 11,949,739 as of March 2024

16 hours ago, In the jungle said:

 

My Hilux 15 to 16 km/litre since it was new.  Now 500,000 km on the odo.

 

1000 km range.

2 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

WHAT!? Thb 2,300 just to travel 1,000 km? You diesel pickup truck drivers must be rich. My car travels on fresh air and… sunshine lol.

36 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

As @JBChiangRai said, some anti-EV folks read what they want. Neither of us claimed that we travelled 1,000 km without stopping. But you are right. I lied. I have done 5,378 kms so far on fresh air and sunshine, not 1,000.

You were replying to a post where @In the jungle mentioned 1000 km range so when you posted  My car travels on fresh air and… sunshine lol. that implies you car as a range of  1000km on fresh air and sunshine and we all know that is false

4 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

Funny that, my car has done 3,000km on fresh air & sunshine.

I don't believe you that your car has completed 3,000 km in a single trip without stopping Fairy Tales

46 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

WHAT!? Thb 2,300 just to travel 1,000 km? You diesel pickup truck drivers must be rich. My car travels on fresh air and… sunshine lol.

Fairytales I think I am not aware of any car that can travel 1,000km without stopping on just fresh air and sunshine

China’s EV Exports to EU Slump at Start of Year Amid Probe

Shipments during January-February fall by nearly 20%

China business group says decline a sign of protectionism

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-26/china-s-ev-exports-to-eu-slump-at-start-of-year-amid-probe

whatever tariffs the EU applies to China will also be applied to Thailand or any country that doesn't have a FTA agreement with the EU

A number of Chinese EV manufacturers are looking at opening up plants in Turkey to benefit from the Turkish-EU customs union

If a Chinese car meets the 40% local content requirement and is certified as originating from Thailand, it will be exported within and outside the ASEAN region through the ASEAN FTA network.

If the “40% local content” requirement cannot be met, the majority of BEVs produced in Thailand will remain in the domestic market. If there is an oversupply, the entire market will be affected if discount sales become rampant, similar to what happened in China

https://www.thinkchina.sg/made-thailand-chinese-evs-could-fill-auto-market

I suspect both the UK and the EU will ask Thailand for quid pro quo as currently Thailand slaps 40%-80% tariffs on cars from the UK and the EU entering Thailand

BYD's next-generation DM hybrid system is expected to give the vehicle a combined range of nearly 2,000 kilometers, while the new e-Platform 4.0 will have a higher level of integration and is expected to further reduce costs, according to local media.

https://cnevpost.com/2024/03/11/byd-to-launch-next-gen-phev-bev-platforms-further-offensive-petrol-cars/

BYD launches Yuan Plus (ATTO 3), a new Honor Edition model in China, price reduced from the previous model to only 600,000 baht.

https://carnewschina.com/2024/03/04/2024-byd-yuan-plus-launched-2200-usd-cheaper-than-before/

29 minutes ago, Pib said:

If EV battery capacity say increases by 50% with a corresponding drop in price of around 50% over the next few years it will cause EV sales to sky rocket and ICEV sales to descend very significantly.  Heck, Toyota and Honda will even have to start producing EVs unless they want to fade away while mumbling "ICEV Forever!!!"

 

And assuming more people get comfortable with EV technology (it takes time & learning) and the charging infrastructure continues to improve I think EV sales will continue to grow at a very healthy pace.  

Its catch 22 if  a 2025 Atto3 model came out with a 50% increase in battery size and a 50% price reduction it would literally would assign a junk status value on all existing Atto 3 on the road

Most of the EV brands are complaining that with existing price war their margins are being cut to the bone

I suspect increase in battery range will only come to new models and they will be priced on the road without any further discounts

6 minutes ago, marino28 said:

let’a wait for the details but as far as I understand , there will be bigger range and cheaper price. 
 

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/02/26/catl-byd-to-slash-battery-prices-by-50-in-2024-boom-evs-win/

 

probably at the end of 2024/ begins of 2025 will be possible to have a battery with a 1000km for the price of a 500km range battery in 2023 

50% price reduction is wholesale this is battery  manufacturers  selling  100,000 batteries  selling to ev  manufacturers

by the time reduction reaches end customer maybe 10-20% reduction

1 hour ago, marino28 said:

https://electrek.co/2024/04/08/byd-launch-next-gen-ev-battery-more-range-lower-price/

 

this one is a game changer. 
if really in the near future the range go up do 1000km and the price will be even more cheap than now. I think I will buy one ev.

 

 

I expect the models B1,300,000 will have the larger long range batteries

Anything below B1,100,000 will have the lower range  batteries

1 hour ago, Pib said:

 

https://autolifethailand.tv/ev-motor-show-2024/

Updated: April 8, 2024

What does the 32.78% reservation for electric cars in Motor Show 2024 reflect?

 

ByPholpat Salayakanond

 

 

Mr. Kritsada Uttamote, President of the Thai Electric Vehicle Association, said that the number of electric vehicle reservations at the 45th Bangkok International Motor Show or Motor Show 2024 ( Motor Show 2024 ) totaled more than 17,517 units, or equivalent to 32.78% of total reservations at the event reflect consumer response. From the brands that sell electric cars and the number of models increasing Every 3 cars reserved at the event will be 1 electric car.

This is despite the fact that the number of such reservations is high. But collecting reservation data and reporting it to the organizers of each company There are differences, for example, some collect reservation data from all over the country for the reason that they use the same campaign as the Motor Show, while some collect reservation data only for the event to assess the worthiness of investing in attending the event. Therefore, it is necessary to keep an eye on the registration numbers for April, which will reflect the success of the bookings that have been made.

As for the number of electric vehicle registrations in the first 3 months of 2024 (January - March), there are approximately 22,000 registered vehicles. For the whole year, it is seen that the electric vehicle market in Thailand will definitely be at the level of hundreds of thousands of vehicles. From last year, it was approximately 76,000 cars, due to the fact that many electric car manufacturers have begun to assemble within the country.

Read related news: Summary of car reservations at the 45th Motor Show 2024 (25 Mar. - 7 Apr. '22): Total 53,438 cars (+24.6%).

At the same time, the price competition that occurs especially at motor shows is a matter for each car manufacturer to set prices and campaigns independently. Thai Electric Vehicle Association Unable to control this part. But what, as the Association's Prime Minister, I am concerned about is that price competition that is too intense until it becomes a price war will affect the overall market throughout the supply chain.

“NORMALLY, THE LAUNCH OF A NEW MODEL INCREASES THE PRICE OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL. BUT IN THIS PRICE WAR SITUATION, THERE HAS BEEN A REDUCTION, AFFECTING CONSUMERS WHO MAKE PURCHASING DECISIONS WHO ARE CONCERNED ABOUT PRICE REDUCTIONS. INCLUDING AFFECTING THE PRICE OF THE USED CAR MARKET FOR BOTH BUYERS AND SELLERS AS WELL. THEREFORE, WE THINK THAT PRICING SHOULD BE STABLE.”

However, in principle there should be a federation of Chinese car manufacturers. To act as a mediator for discussions not only in preventing price wars but also as a mediator in coordinating with the government sector. and various documents related to investment

When the reporter asked about the case of a Chinese electric car manufacturer being considered a zero-dollar tour that came to do business in Thailand, Mr. Kritsada said that first of all, we must understand that a zero-dollar tour means tourism that the company Chinese tours bring in tourists. And then take them to buy goods and services from Chinese investors only, which does not create benefits for Thailand. It is different from the automotive industry where those doing business must invest in purchasing land to set up a factory. and will have to construct a factory Including paying taxes and must be employed This is impossible for only Chinese people.

 

 

I am not aware of any industry from Cars, mobile Phones TV's where

“NORMALLY, THE LAUNCH OF A NEW MODEL INCREASES THE PRICE OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL.

In fact its the complete opposite where manufacturer will discount their old  inventory to clear their old stock

BYD for example discounts of up to B250,000 on 2023 models.

The only other option manufacturers have to avoid discounting old inventory is simple produce less

Problem for BEV only  manufacturer's they have no choice to produce less where other

manufacturer's if they see BEV not selling well they can scale back their EV production lines and switch to Hybrid, diesel or petrol which ever is selling well in the market place

3 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

How much you have to put down to confirm a booking is important as well. Anyone know?

Most Brands generally asked for  B5,000

18 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

You are really just playing with semantics. Yes, all reservations for BYD’s may not (and probably won’t) end up in actual sales. Many possible reasons; change of mind, change of personal circumstances, loan rejection etc. Same could happen for Toyota and any other manufacturer.

 

The important takeaway however is that the interest is there. More potential buyers are more interested in buying a BYD than a Honda. This shows that interest in EVs are not flagging, dashing the hopes and dreams of some anti-EVers.

Rever Automotive, BYD's official Thai distributor, on Wednesday told Bangkok area dealers to aim to sell 7,000 units at the motor show to clear Atto SUV and Dolphin hatchback inventory.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/EV-makers-offer-deep-discounts-as-Thai-auto-market-weakens

So BYD didn't managed to clear their 2023 inventory of Atto and Dolphin models

2 hours ago, Pib said:

 

Interesting the Motor Show stats over recent years...other than a couple of COVID years suppressing the trend, the trend has been up, up, and away with this year & last year showing BIG increases surely caused by all the Chinese manufacturers with their new and lower priced models coming to Thailand ...especially EV models.   

 

 

3 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

Actually, an order is the intention to buy a vehicle, so is a reservation.

 

Outsold can refer to salesmanship, it doesn't have to refer to physically completed sales.  Happy to give you the lesson, no charge.

Motor show 2023 21st Mar 3rd April 2023  42,885 cars were reserved

EV registrations for May 2023 were 5,559

EV registration's for June 2023 were 7,637

EV registration's for July  2023 were 5,116

indicating that the reservations for the Motor show 2023 21st Mar 3rd April 2023 were converted to final sales in June registrations figures

https://autolifethailand.tv/register-ev-bev-thailand-dec-2023/

You have a reservation for a   MG Cyberster it can't be considered a final sale as you haven't paid for it and you have indicated that if MG doesn't agree to your conditions of sale you will cancel your reservation

Thailand’s automobile sales slumped to a 29-month low in January, as banks rejected about 50% of total auto loan requests amid alarming household debt levels. 

https://www.gulf-times.com/article/679396/business/thailands-central-bank-open-to-reviewing-neutral-stance-in-april

5 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

outsold - WordReference.com Dictionary of English

 

Outsold is the past tense and past participle of the verb "outsell". It means to surpass a competitor in salesmanship or selling¹

A reservation confirms that you plan to place an order and holds your place. An order is the actual purchase of your selected vehicle

1 minute ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

Sorry, let me correct that.

 

EV's outsold Toyota 2:1 

Suggest you pay a visit to Thailand version of specsavers   if you don't know the difference between reservations and sales

these are  reservations

will have to wait for May and June registrations data to see how many reservations were converted to full sales

1 hour ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

Interesting, EV's outsold Toyota 2:1

Correction these are  reservations

will have to wait for May and June registrations data to see how many reservations were converted to full sales

Thailand’s automobile sales slumped to a 29-month low in January, as banks rejected about 50% of total auto loan requests amid alarming household debt levels. 

https://www.gulf-times.com/article/679396/business/thailands-central-bank-open-to-reviewing-neutral-stance-in-april

7 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

Yes, EV's are dead @vinny41 @ExpatOilWorker

 

Read & weep!

these are reservations not confirmed sales you will have to wait for May and June registrations data 

Thailand’s automobile sales slumped to a 29-month low in January, as banks rejected about 50% of total auto loan requests amid alarming household debt levels. 

https://www.gulf-times.com/article/679396/business/thailands-central-bank-open-to-reviewing-neutral-stance-in-april

15 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

And your point is?

It would appear that car buyers in Thailand prefer HEV to BEV