yuyiinthesky

8 hours ago, CLS said:

China will be included if it also opens its borders to European Union travelers, as reciprocal reopening is one of the criteria used to make the final selection for the safe list.

That sounds as if they knew on Friday that Thailand will also - reciprocal - open for Europeans. 

6 minutes ago, steelepulse said:

Are we sure he's a scientist?  He's been in politics for the majority of his life as a figurehead through a number of different presidents.  Seems he's an entrepreneur getting in on a number of patents, as well as being a politician.

You have a point there.
 

He also was the one paying the Wuhan lab near that market, where it was said that SARS-CoV-2 started, tryIng to make corona viruses more dangerous. That was after such research became illegal in the US, and he could’t continue there, so he outsourced it. I don‘t know if they were successful though. 

6 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

So on the 28th Feb Dr Fauci states:

 

"This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza"

 

This article was published on the 28th Feb. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

 

The on the 11th March, Dr Fauci states: 

 

"Fauci said COVID-19 is at least 10 times “more lethal” than the seasonal flu." This was on 11th March, he obviously changed his mind.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/top-federal-health-official-says-coronavirus-outbreak-is-going-to-get-worse-in-the-us.html

Not necessarily a change of mind. First he spoke of a „severe“ seasonal influenza, then of a „seasonal flu“ without mentioning „severe“. Quite different things, quite different consequences.

16 minutes ago, steelepulse said:

"May", means he has no idea and he just may change his mind, just like he did about the wearing of masks ( or was that a blatant lie to ensure medical staff had enough masks?)

I think „may“ here is just the normal way scientists word their opinions in such studies. Every good scientist knows that what he thinks today being a „law of nature“ can be replaced tomorrow by a better explanation. 
 

Laypersons easily make the mistake to Interpret such a „may“ as insecurity, while it is merely acknowledging that It is the current understanding at the time of writing, and can change with new knowledge and data.

14 hours ago, cmarshall said:

What I find repellent among the posters like yourself who are bound and determined to find some theory, any theory, that explains the fact that Asian countries suffered only about 1% of the Covid deaths of the Western countries without giving any credit at all to the Asian people and their governments.  

And what I find repellent among the posters like yourself is that you totally ignore that Cambodia (and apparently Vietnam too?) has achieved a better result without draconian lockdown and curfew, without shelter in place and alcohol ban and beach ban and all that nonsense.
 

Instead of being delighted that zero deaths was achieved without all that lock down <deleted> you claim some Asia - West controversy agenda, and praise all the lock down nonsense. As if it can only be right if there is the most severe lockdown, and it just can‘t be that Cambodia did better without it. 
 

Are you guys just scared or do you enjoy being locked down?

13 hours ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

1. He didn’t call the virus a “severe seasonal influenza”. 
 

2. What’s the point bringing up an article that was written before doctors learned about the damage the virus can do? Don’t the doctors clearly say that “We thought this was only a respiratory virus. Turns out, it goes after (...)”?

1. I didn‘t claim he did. However he used the term „severe seasonal influenza“ when discussing Covid 19, and not „just a flu“, as the poster I replied to.

2. As you could have easily guessed by the prefix „Source“ in front of the link the NEJM article was the source of the „severe seasonal influenza“ quote.
 

If you however agree with the „just a flu“ quote I replied to, that‘s ok, fine, but don‘t start bickering about me showing the source for a Fauci quote.

10 hours ago, johnpetersen said:

No. From a deadly serious bat.

Are you claiming that the bat created and spread the virus on purpose, with the intent to harm humans?

4 hours ago, kenk24 said:

Stadtler is missing the point... I have been convinced it is gone for some time now.. I don't wear a mask everywhere and if friends are comfortable w/o, so am I... but if I go to Makro and they want me to wear a mask, its ok... no need to offend someone over something trivial... but the point is that I do it for the comfort or set rules of others... 

Better not go to Makro at all, only cheap junk there anyway ????

4 hours ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

“Just the flu.”

You are misquoting Dr. Anthony Fauci. He wrote in the New England Journal of Medicine „severe seasonal influenza“ and not „just a flu“. 

Yuyi only wears a mask at Carnival in Venice, and when diving.

1 hour ago, ukrules said:

No tests, no deaths, no problem ????

It's a tad too simple to say that. There have been tests and quite much contact tracing. 
I have some friends living in Cambodia, and they all report the same as we see in Thailand, empty hospitals etc. 

I'm not saying there was no SARS-CoV-2 in Cambodia, quite the contrary, same as in Thailand I think the virus did go through long before any testing started - but that there could be a very low death rate, even zero, is quite possible. (Keep in mind the very low percentage of people > 65 years old.)

In this discussion it is about comparing the lockdown Thailand to the non-lockdown Cambodia. I think the numbers in Cambodia and Thailand have both about the same correctness level. As hospitalized patients were tested, the number of deaths are most probably not too wrong, but the real number of infections is of course very much higher. As it's the deaths which matter, and non-lockdown Cambodia has zero, I think Cambodia's response was sufficient. Only that is my point, not if the real number of deaths in Cambodia or Thailand is 100% correct. If Thailand's lockdown gets praised for the low numbers, then Cambodia's non-lockdown must be praised more.

Cambodia is also pushing to open the border to Thailand at Poi Pet again, but Thailand is still blocking it  (https://www.khmertimeskh.com/50738322/no-date-for-reopening-of-cambodian-thailand-border-at-aranyaprathet/ ).

9 hours ago, cmarshall said:

As I say, I haven't read anything about the Cambodian response to the pandemic, so I don't know how they responded or what the result was.  The Johns Hopkins dashboard reports no information available on Covid deaths in Cambodia.  The Statista database on death per million has no information on Cambodia.  So, I have no idea what went on there.  I certainly wouldn't base my understanding of what the best responses to the pandemic have on a case about which there is so little information.

Very simply, there is no information about Covid 19 deaths because they had nothing to enter, zero, nada, nothing. Statista has nothing to enter.

And as said earlier and posted here on TVF already, no Thailand style lockdown, actually no lockdown, just closed KTVs schools, gyms. No beach ban, no alcohol ban, no curfew, no forced shelter in place.

Quote

CAMBODIA COVID-19 – SITUATION UPDATE: 23 June 2020. CASES: 130 CURED: 127 Time: 09:30 am

Source: https://www.khmertimeskh.com/50737167/cambodia-covid-19-case-breakdown-23-june-2020/

Quote

No deaths from the disease have been reported since the Coronavirus hit Cambodia early this year, one of very few countries in the region with zero reported fatalities.

Source: https://www.khmertimeskh.com/723990/well-done-all-122-victims-of-covid-19-recovered-no-deaths/

So if you want to praise Thailand‘s draconian lockdown, then you should praise Cambodia’s not-lockdown even more. It‘s obviously more successfull.

32 minutes ago, Dumbastheycome said:

You might need to  fact check your stats of the elderly (65+ ) in Thailand !https://www.statista.com/statistics/713667/thailand-forecast-aging-population/

 

Thanks, so it is not 9.x anymore, but in this stat 10.x. Huge difference.
 

Or look at this one:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_age_structure

Cambodia 4.4 %

Thailand 11.4 %

Italy 23 %

...

I think it confirms Pretty much what I said.

30 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

I don't know what transpired in Cambodia since I haven't read any coverage of the pandemic there.  Do you have a source for your claim of Chinese virus carriers entering Cambodia or are you just making that up?

You might have heard about Angkor Wat and the Chinese tourist streams going there, or Sihanoukville, which became a Chinese casino town. Tens of thousands of Chinese did pass through there, all the time. You think by some wonderful miracle none of them were infected, unlike the Chinese travelers going elsewhere?

14 hours ago, spiekerjozef said:

When they start building the beach resorts?

The problem might be that the weather changes from moderate to extreme. That means when it rains it rains too much, but dry periods are hotter and longer. You have extreme coldness followed by extreme heat.

UK, Ireland, Scandinavia as well as Western and Central Europe will loose their moderate climate once the Gulf stream stops, which will happen as soon as enough arctic ice is melted away. This will have a huge impact not only on the people, but also on the agriculture.

I wish that the deniers would be right this time, but unfortunately they are not.

23 hours ago, steven100 said:

well ............ you guys go and extinct ,  i'll hang around for another 20-30 years and see what happens '  ok 

Enjoy the weather!

11 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

Your question is focused on the UK which is not related to the German topic;

 

1. You are complaining that patients "desperate for treatment for other serious conditions died in their homes under lockdown".

 

Do you have any verified data to support this allegation?  No one was denied urgent care and some emergency procedures did continue at designated facilities.

Although it was not me who made that statement you‘re replying to, let me call in an expert opinion on this question, talking about non-covid deaths due to lockdowns in the UK: Professor Karol Sikora, the Founding Dean and Professor of Medicine at the University of Buckingham Medical School and an ex-director of the WHO Cancer Programme, said in an interview with Unherd.com that he expects 50000 additional cancer deaths due to the lockdown for the UK alone. (Don‘t take my word, listen to Professor Sikora himself, the interview is on youtube and on the Unherd.com website).

50000 in the UK for cancer alone, that‘s a lot of collateral damage.

On 6/25/2020 at 9:28 AM, geriatrickid said:

Your friend  has insisted that I made a statement. I have asked him to support his claim. I am giving him an opportunity for him to either support  what he claims or to retract and to apologize for lying.

 

In respect to your question, it is a childish diversion. I will address your inquiry once the  first issue is addressed.

I understand that you prefer not to talk about your superior education - it might not be that superior after all.

However you accused me of having a political agenda. Have at least the courtesy to explain it, what is it, my political agenda?

4 hours ago, cmarshall said:

But please keep at it and try to find some other, however far-fetched basis on which to support your insistence that Asian countries cannot possible be more capable than <your favorite failed Western government here.> 

From my post you could imply that I think that Cambodia was more capable than Thailand. Last time I checked Cambodia was a neighbor of Thailand, Member of ASEAN, and right there in Asia. 
 

Feel free to look it up, if you don‘t want to believe me: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cambodia

3 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

They just do not care is it not obvious.  It is to me.  It is there way of reducing the population through natural selection.  Add into it the fact that if they care, well then the RTP would do there jobs and enforce the laws without fear, favor, or monetary reasons... I do understand your plight and your fight to create safety and your concerns, but having lived in this country for many years, things will never change, because as I said they just do not CARE, why else would a 10, 11, or 12 year old be allowed to ride a MC to the store or for that matter to school.  There is never and has not been accountability in this country.  If you have money then things just disappear.

Unfortunately true. Makes me sad and angry to see everyday. 

3 hours ago, cmarshall said:

Thanks so much for the entertaining little sci-fi parody you are spinning.  We can all use a good laugh in these times.  On the off-chance that some reader may not be in on the joke, let's just apply a quick smell test to your theory that differences in infection and death rates ... Our natural experiment occurs in China.

Your elaboration about China has absolutely nothing to do with my point, which was a reply to Geriatrickid’s request „Have a look at the countries who  have not had a similar approach <as Thailand>.„
 

My reply was that there are Zero Covid 19 deaths in Cambodia, despite Cambodia not following the Thai strategy. In Cambodia there was no draconian lockdown, no curfew, no alcohol ban, no beach ban, no shelter in place, but probably even more Chinese virus carriers from Wuhan passing through. But nevertheless, zero deaths.

I do not see where your exercise about China has anything to do with it.

Also I do not see where this is a „sci-fi parody“. The numbers and actions by the countries Thailand and Cambodia are all in the presence and past, no future involved.

I understand your wish to have a good laugh, yes, we all do, but may be you should smoke less of that stuff so you can still read and understand what you‘re replying to.

32 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Heritage is a worthless source. It's a right wing political lobbying group closely allied with the 45's virus denial society.

Well, even they might jump on a nice story. But fortunately there are so many others.

Forgive me if I included just a few links. I’m sure you find plenty others from media of all directions, it was all over the news. 

Here some more, as given by google, possibly right wing or left wing or up wing or low wing, I dunno, but all the same content nevertheless, the code was ridiculously flawed and wrong:

https://www.trustnodes.com/2020/05/08/neil-fergusons-lockdown-model-ridiculed-after-its-code-is-open-sourced
 

Quote

One of those people helping to refactor and extend was John Carmack, a well known coder who on the 27th of April released this on Github, the platform for open source code.

“As a software engineer, I’m appalled at the quality of this code and the role its played in public policy. The deficits in testing and quality assurance need to be immediately spoken for to assure the claims made by its data are valid,” says a coder going by the name of Tux who seems to have been coding since 2011.

“In a time where faith in scientific models is more important than ever, it’s truly disheartening to see that such widely-used models are based on such faulty testing logic,” says a Software Engineer at Capital One.

https://technocracy.news/neil-fergusons-computer-model-is-ripped-to-shreds/

Quote

Back in March, Ferguson’s faulty model estimated that up to 2.2 million Americans could die if no actions were taken to stop transmission in the US. The report about the model immediately created a domino effect of panic responses. The model was so highly flawed it never should have been relied upon for policy decisions to begin with.

https://techstartups.com/2020/06/02/disgraced-imperial-college-prof-neil-ferguson-whose-flawed-model-used-justify-lockdowns-now-admits-sweden-may-suppressed-coronavirus-level-without-draconian-measures/
 

Feel free to google yourself for more.

49 minutes ago, Logosone said:

This exact point is suggested by the most exhaustive study and testing regime undertaken in relation to SARS Cov2, the study in Iceland.

 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2006100

 

The Iceland study found that only 0.8% of the population sample tested in Iceland actually had the virus.

 

This study was different because unlike in some countries where only the very sick were tested, the 0.8% figure refers to the general population, not at risk sick people or people who travelled. It referred the average person.

 

In terms of scale, the US had done 7,600 tests per one million people at the time. Using that same scale that accounts for Iceland's population, Iceland has undertaken 100,000 tests per million people.   

 

If only 0.8% of the population have the virus that implies that indeed only very, very few are susceptible to the virus.

 

It would explain a lot, including the small number of deaths in Thailand. There's just very few people infected.

 

 

 

To say the obvious, which might not be seen by everyone immediately, but which has a huge importance: The above means that, whatever the required value of immune (or non-susceptible) people for a herd immunity might be, it will be reached much faster than previously expected.