Walker88

And the short version to the OP: Forget yourself....happiness will ensue.

You nailed it. Accept reality for what it is and enjoy it. The nature of reality is infinitely fascinating, and I never tire of thinking and learning about it, whether considering how cells in a body function, what instinct drives me to do, how some things please or don't, about the vastness of space and time, or how things behave at a subatomic level. All of that---which is real and of astonishing complexity--- is so much more interesting than some supposed creator or worrying about rules that tell you where you can or cannot put your appendages and when, or what animals you must avoid, or how women have to dress like giant eggplants, or telling some make believe entity how great it is and how you love it so. I have no faith and don't think much of any of them, even the ones claiming they're just a 'philosophy', not a religion (at the retail level, its adherents treat it exactly like any other religion, forever asking for things and wishing for all the things that 'philosophy' supposedly teaches them not to desire). Personally, I think its founder was manic depressive and just found his own way to address it. His personal solution subsequently became a faith, similar to how an alibi or lie became another major religion "I swear, Joey, God did it". Many people need to believe in something. Dr Robert Sapolsky is of the view religion was 'selected into' the species in a Darwinian sense, because a belief there is something/someone/meaning/etc. reduces stress, and stress kills. He bases that on the fact every culture has invented myths and control entities. I've always been incredibly lucky. I didn't truly realize just how lucky until I started looking outside of myself. Without going into too much detail, I tried to spread my luck around. I met people who had nothing, and who had a thousand bad things happen every day and maybe one good thing. They focused on the one good thing. I had a life where a thousand good things happened every day, and maybe one bad thing, yet I put too much attention into the bad thing. I learned from them and it took a guy who was generally pretty happy and amped it up. I have almost everything I could ever want or need, except the one thing nobody can have: more time to enjoy this life. Besides the wonders of existence, each of us is sharing this brief time and space with others. Rather than navel gazing, put more attention on those around you. There is always someone who could use a helping hand, or a little confidence boosting, a sympathetic ear, or even a joke or two. Put attention on either of those---the beauty of existence or the interactions with those around you---and the things that ail or worry you disappear. Obviously it is made a lot easier if one is healthy and has daily needs taken care of (that is where my luck comes into it). For the OP, I would advise against producing a kid, as your happiness or meaning is quite a burden to foist on to someone else. Besides, there's plenty of kids out there already who could use some care and attention. Focus outside of yourself, whether it's toward this lovely tropical country or the people around you who you care about. Forget yourself, except to remind yourself how lucky you are to exist and how lucky you are to have materialized where and when you did. Of the 125 billion or so people who have existed since our ancestors walked out of Oldavai Gorge, nobody has come into this world under better circumstances that white males in developed countries. Nothing stood in the way of enjoyment and success except for obstacles one created for himself. Imagine how easy the life of a white male born in a developed nation is vs a female born in rural Bangladesh or N'Djamena. Most of us are incredibly lucky.

I don't see a crisis, but a slowdown is likely. What I have no idea about is the condition of the banks. I learned long ago (in Japan) not to trust the stated level of either NPLs or income. In times of crisis confidence becomes more important than truth or reality. I do know there was a debt moratorium during part of the Covid Era. I also read that the authorities allowed banks to book imputed interest, as if borrowers were actually servicing their debt when they were not. Japan did that in the early 1990s. Japan also changed rules regarding consolidation on the parent's balance sheet, so that losses could be hidden in non-consolidated subsidiaries. I do not know if Thailand also has done that. I just know it pays to be skeptical re banks.

I believe the BoT announced last month Household Debt is now 93% of GDP.

At the citizen level, household debt as a % of per capita income is higher in Thailand than the US, so stimulus would have to come from the public sector. Hence, the 10K baht scheme. The figures Thailand produces re Household Debt do not include, as far as I know, gray market debt. The Thai consumer is pretty strapped right now. The US has the luxury of having the world's reserve currency, a large manufacturing base that is beginning to grow again, the world's strongest military, a well-educated and creative elite (even if the average American seems like a moron), most of the resources it needs domestically or in the land of a friendly neighbor, it produces something like 350% of its caloric needs, and transparent and liquid capital markets. All of those kind of allow things Greece or Spain or Argentina or Thailand could never do. At present, the world could survive a collapse of Thailand (I'm not arguing that this will happen). The world at present could not survive the collapse of the US. Yes, the debt and obligations are massive, but so is the economy. It will all tumble some day, but I suspect most members will be pushing daisies by the time that happens.

I think tourism is a plus for the Thai economy, and might hit 20% or higher of Thai GDP in 2024 (vs 17.8% in 2019). The high season looks pretty good, as better hotels (which might be assumed to house wealthier, more-free-spending visitors) have high bookings. The govt seems to see this, which is why so many of its actions seemed geared toward the tourism sector. (The new tax scheme is not going to help in terms of expats, however.) What bodes negatively for Thailand are the ongoing effects from Covid, and regional competition to be the SEAsian hub and labor source for international firms. The world learned about the threats to supply chains during Covid, and many nations are taking steps to bring manufacturing back home. In a sense the end of globalization may be upon us. Certainly this supply chain issue is impacting China, so it's likely to hit Thailand, too. Factories and plants that are getting long in the tooth and fully depreciated could disappear, rather than be upgraded or rebuilt. Vietnam is heavily courting Japanese manufacturing. That could hit Thai GDP. Many export markets are being hit by domestic issues, most notably China. I'm a bit on the side of Peter Zeihan re China, though maybe for different reasons. The insolvency of Zhongzhi suggests that the fallout from the property sector (e.g., Evergrande) is spreading. China is awash in excess capacity as well as domestic debt. SOEs have always been a basket case, but this could be masked when the economy was on the boil. It's barely simmering now, relative to the last 2 decades. To the extent Thailand's economy is interwoven with China, China's problems will impact Thailand. The ag sector has always been a plus for Thailand, but two things are impacting that: the drought in some regions, and the war in Ukraine which affects fertilizer prices. That might play out more in 2024. Thailand can afford the 10K baht scheme, though it will double FY2024's debt, but I'm not sure what effect it will have.

It must be cherry season, because they're being picked. Chanyanit is one of 66 million. Einstein, Feynman, Oppenheimer, von Neumann, Bethe, Pauli, Bohr, Mandelbrot, Born, Ricardo, Spinoza, and so many others are members of an ethnicity which, in addition to be persecuted for thousands of years, has never been even a rounding error in its percent of the total human population. I do not claim any credit for what your avatar did (including playing the bongos naked), so it isn't any western sense of superiority. I merely look at the data and came to a conclusion. Maybe discovery and invention is partly attributed to a critical mass of intellect being in the same place at the same time, and historical Thailand never enjoyed that critical mass. The Renaissance in Europe had that critical mass. In the UK in the days of Faraday and Maxwell, there was that critical mass. In Europe in the early 1900s, there was that critical mass of physicists. Sometimes events lead to the creation of a critical mass of intellect, such as the emergence of the Nazis brought so many together at Los Alamos (including Feynman). A critical mass developed in California in the 1980s, which led to Silicon Valley and the modern tech economy. Many cultures had their day in the sun. Some had it, then faded away. Some still have it. Some never had it. Lots of books have been written and much controversial research has been done to try to explain this, but either no one has come up with the answer, or the answer is too uncomfortable to consider in polite company. As noted in my post, all cultures and nations create myths which they teach their members. Pride can result, even false pride. Sometimes it even elicits a feeling of superiority, where members think the greatness of their fellows falls a bit on those who achieved nothing. That's the primary currency of the White Supremacists. I think some cultures inculcate that belief in superiority into their members better than others, often without cause or reason. I recall a long ago interview with Orson Wells who was of the opinion that one particular minority had, pound for pound, achieved infinitely more than any other ethnic group. Many, myself included, would agree with him (as is clear in this post). In polite company we might be allowed to have a top, but we are not allowed to have a bottom. Especially today we suffer from a kind of cognitive dissonance, where we accept that there are #1s, but no lowest in anything. Rather than look for reasons and try to correct what may be due to a host of fixable factors, we accept, that except for the #1s we allow, everybody else is equal, when an objective look at reality says quite the opposite. Perhaps someone can explain why achievement is so narrowly focused, not only among individuals, but even between cultures.

I don't feel violated, so no need to call the cops. He has an opinion based on his experience, observations and what people have told him. So do I. We differ in our opinion. This is a Forum, the point of which (besides the owner hoping to make money) is to post opinions. I did not convince him, but neither did he convince me. There is an elite in Thailand who have created a pretty good deal for themselves. 1% control 75% of the nation's wealth. They also control the levers of power, which includes the education system as well as the myths inculcated into the other 99%. As I noted, they even created laws to make questioning of some myths a crime. At the leadership level they miss few opportunities to reinforce the myths, which impacts the people's sense of self and keeps them pliable and corralled. I think if reality, rather than myth, was taught, the people might be unleashed. That might create a larger pie from which the elite could benefit in a nominal way, although the percent of the larger pie the elite control would be less. It seems those who make the rules, the education system, etc., do not want to risk that, as wealth combined with power seems to be their goal.

I buy a lot of wine. I buy enough so that suppliers give me the wholesale price. For many Italian wines of better quality, I pay the same or less than I do in the US. I asked about the tax....I was told that low priced wines get hit with a high tax, but better wines get a reduced rate, as importers claim a much lower cost. For a wine that sells for $15 in the US, it might cost $35 here, but a wine that costs $100 in the US might cost $100 here, or even less. That's wholesale. A medium priced wine like Le Volte or il Bruciato also costs me the same wholesale here as I would pay in a shop in the US retail. Restaurants tend to mark up considerably, depending on how hi-so they are. Maybe some mark up 100%, while others mark up 300%. You can buy a Solaia or Tignanello wholesale for about what I pay in the US, but at a restaurant it's 3x what I pay in a US cave. If the tax is cut, cheaper wines will cost less in restaurants, but the Solaias are likely to be the same, as the tax now is a fraction of the official rate.

Obviously the range among people is quite wide. In countries I lived in in the past, I employed household staff who did the shopping and the cooking. They had the weekend off, but on Sunday I would cook pizza for them and their kids, if they had them. My cooking skills declined at the same rate my laziness grew, so while breakfast is at home and lunch is only a protein shake, I eat out every night. Maybe 2-3 times a week dinner is accompanied by wine, which is shared with the table and sometimes with the service staff at the restaurant, as I cannot finish an entire bottle, or choose not to. I suspect my monthly number is quite high, though I've never added it up. I enjoy a good meal and try to vary among different cuisines. If I had to limit myself to one cuisine until getting in the box or the urn, I'd say Italian (with Italian wine). Second choice would be Indian, and a close third Thai. Maybe Thai over Indian...I just love spices and a little zip that chilies provide. Tough to go wrong with any of those.

How does it feel? Exactly the same as if I believed in deities. Sunsets are as lovely, food tastes just as good, a hug is just as satisfying. Deluding myself into pretending some meaning that comes from some creator would take away from the meaning I derive simply from being able to enjoy this brief existence and the people with whom I share time and space. Most people come into existence because somebody was horny. I find that kind of funny. What's funnier, however, is that people think there are some deities watching the whooping, who then send an order to their celestial factory to churn out another 'soul' and stick it where dad just stuck something else.

Similarly nothing proves that the cashier at Food Gourmet who ran up my purchases did not create the Universe last Monday. As for consciousness, there is zero evidence that it continues after the neurons stop firing. Yes, our atoms get recycled, but since there are maybe 10^27 of them in the brain, the odds they reconnect in exactly the same way are slim to none. Drink a glass of water and it's likely at least one oxygen atom was part of Caesar, but I don't feel any stab wounds when I take a sip.

What is a fact is that there is absolutely no evidence that humans are anything more than a biological machine, whose 'consciousness' is a function of biology, chemistry, and electromagnetism. Watch the decline of a person with dementia and this becomes abundantly clear. The same can be observed when a person suffers a traumatic brain injury. What they were is no more. Where did they go? They went nowhere; it's only the neurons and parts of the brain that made them what they once were no longer function, so that part of who they were no longer exists. It is a funny bit of delusion that a person with advanced Alzheimers, who even forgets how to swallow at the end, in the instant of death becomes everything they ever were again, all their memories and personality intact. That may well be comforting for some people, but it has zero basis in fact. And if the dead don't become what they were again, but become something new, they don't remember their previous iteration anyway. Thus, the only point belief has is that some need that comfort while alive. Some do not. I accept that I am a biological machine, whose existence will end for all eternity at some point. My 'meaning' comes from my ability to enjoy this brief existence and the time and space I share with others. As Sam Harris has said, the term 'atheist' is kind of silly. There is no similar term for those who don't believe in astrology, yet there is no more proof any deity is real than astrology is real. Some like to scaremonger and say if I don't believe what they believe, I will suffer some sort of eternal punishment. Okay, which deity or deities are the One True one or ones? Pascal's Wager wasn't an either/or, it was a lottery ticket, because somebody could choose Jesus and then die and find out the One True God is Allah or Shiva or Thor or Zeus or Amaterasu. Choose wrong and one is plumb out of luck getting 72 virgins or drinking ale with Odin in Valhalla.

If any Thai people actually believed that pabulum, they would rush out today and borrow every baht they possibly could from loan sharks, assuming their new master would grant them a debt jubilee.

Having taken a walk down that wild side, I did notice most bars have a foreign 'manager', usually sitting with mates and drinking heavily. I cannot imagine the job pays much more than a (barely) living wage, and daily consumption of booze while sitting on one's backside cannot be good longer term. I seriously doubt any owner would go to the trouble of getting his manager a work permit, so that manager---while doing his body no good---is a fish-in-a-barrel target should any law enforcement officer (who apparently do not enforce laws against prostitution, which unlike agogos takes place on the premises) be in need of some spending money.

Tell that to the lions! As the Grand Poobah of my local WLM (Wildebeests Lives Matter), I'm always looking for folks to establish new chapters.

No matter where one eats in the world, a hair---or even an insect---in the food is not unheard of. It can happen at a sidewalk som tam stand, at The French Laundry or Enoteca Pinchiorri. The proper way to deal with it is to discretely point it out to the service staff, get a replacement dish, and enjoy the meal. (One is probably less likely to get that replacement at a sidewalk som tam stand, so pull it out and finish the meal.) As for whether fine dining is worth it, or better than a "69 baht curry", up to the individual and what he chooses to do with his money. A nice meal in a restaurant can be a fun experience, with friends, a special someone, or even alone. Obviously, some people enjoy that experience more than others, and some people are more able to afford it than others. To each his own. What else is one going to do with his money? You can't take it with you (but you can take a 'doggie bag' from a restaurant). Funny when folks say, "You're in Thailand and should be eating Thai food". I visited Thailand many times over the years, and since Covid have been living here. When I go into a restaurant---e.g., a Japanese restaurant---I seem to see many Thai people. Why are they not eating Thai? Imagine! Some people actually like variety! I enjoy many Thai dishes, some more than others, but some I do not care for at all. Seafood som tam is one. Some members of my staff love seafood som tam, but invariably I hear this from them (even the women): "I had really good seafood som tam last night, but today I have bad diarrhea!" Odd what one culture thinks is appropriate talk vs what another culture views as 'not in polite company'. It always amuses me when I am told about diarrhea, or when I am informed by a staff member that she is having a "Lady Day" (period). Different cultures, different customs.

And the followup story to this incident is that the drunk cop and his rant came to the attention of Deputy PM Anutin, who immediately appointed the cop as head of the Tourism Authority of Thailand.

You seem bitter. Curious what is the most wealth someone should be allowed to keep? A dollar less than you? Who decides how much is too much? Who decides who is worthy of receiving the wealth taken away from those with 'too much'? The government? Do you think every person who is not wealthy is a 'salt of the Earth' type who just needs a helping hand, or are some in their predicament through every fault of their own? You trust the government with all of the wealth you earned to spread out what they take from you only to the worthy? Do you think every person truly wants to work hard and not simply take freebies so as to maintain a slothful lifestyle? There's a reason both Communism and Socialism failed. Both are inefficient and unfair, allowing the lazy to do just as well as the ambitious, and squelching incentives for capable people to work hard. While not perfect, Capitalism produces the greatest overall prosperity. Charlie Munger did not 'bamboozle' anyone. He took chances anyone else could take, but just used superior judgement and maybe had better luck. While it might not be easy to see what 'value' he added to society, active financial markets with lots of liquidity are what allow things like start-up money for new people-employing and service-providing businesses, pensions, insurance, and all sorts of things that require capital formation and capital return. I probably have more wealth than you think a person deserves, and if up to you, the government would take it away and use it for something else (like a pork project in a politician's district so he will be loved and get re-elected). Why can't I decide what to do with the wealth I have earned? Why do I lose that right just because I've been better at acquiring wealth than you? As it turns out, I have 'given away' $millions, but to efforts and situations I chose, not some self-serving elected official or bureaucrat who may not know as much about genuine need as I do. Also, even if I just decide to buy Lamborghinis and a Gulfstream, does my spending not result in jobs and income for workers? Perhaps you think people feel just as good about what they have if it was given to them or if they worked a job for it? I think people feel better if they think they earned it, but maybe I'm wrong.

In your current iteration you've been here 8 months and have 11,600 posts. Methinks you're not really spending a lot of time communicating with the locals.

In Pattaya? That's odd. In Bangkok, bar licenses are in the company name as registered at the DBD, and if American, the company can be 100% foreigner owned (The Treaty of Amity). Thus, the license if in the name of the foreigner.

The same issue comes up here as it did, sort of, in the YouTube post about how to avoid bad relationships in Thailand. There is an elite in Thailand for whom things work quite well. The 1% who control 75% of the wealth in Thailand have precious little incentive to change things. They teach myths that keep the vast majority of Thai people in line and useful to the elite. Better educated Thais might actually vote out the entrenched elite and push the elite away from the public trough that has served the elite so well. The hand-picked Senate did its job as intended when Move Forward won a plurality, guaranteeing no change for the foreseeable future. Better education---including English language skill---could be achieved in a generation if anyone in a position of authority actually had that as a goal. It's even likely the pie would get bigger, and although the elite would get a smaller percent of that pie, it might be more than they currently get. Since that isn't certain, no need to take chances. Keep the populace immersed in the myths, and keep them as uneducated as need be for the elite to maintain that 75% control.

Failure in trying to operate a bar in Thailand is pretty international. Too many build on a dream rather than a Business Plan. There are a few successful foreign bar owners....some French in Pattaya and Americans in Bangkok. Both took the time to understand their market and spend wisely on the venues. Both have solid floor management, too, one has a Frenchman and the Bangkok clubs have a really sharp Thai woman. Other foreigners fail, but their failure doesn't discourage newcomers who have similar poorly-thought out dreams. A venue I know was opened by an Eastern European and never caught on. He sold to some Spaniards and they are doing no better. Too many venues are carbon copies of each other, plus they are in bad locations. The clubs who differentiate themselves with their decor, lighting, media, A/C and filtration, plus with some decent marketing and staff recruitment, win. Create a destination, rather than a "Let's take a look inside this one to see if it's any good", and the chances of success improve. One aside: beer bars are now the purview of Westerners mostly, while the agogo scene is increasingly East Asian, maybe upwards of 70%. Smoking, drinking and mongering are declining in the West, while steady to increasing in the East.

The sound of a language is particular to one's ear. The sound of Thai is far from a favorite of mine. Yes, my loss, and although I can get by with the basics, I will likely never learn it well. I lived several years in Hong Kong and the sound of Cantonese was another language that did not appeal. Again, my loss. I did learn Arabic, which is probably not high on the list of pleasant sounding languages for many, but I found it lovely and melodic. It is quite complex and carries more subtleties than even Japanese (which I also speak). The US State Dept lists language difficulty as the time it takes to reach university level speaking for a native English speaker. For example...French & Spanish: 3-6 months. German: 9 months. Russian: 1 year. Thai, Burmese: 1.5 years. Japanese: 2 years. Putongua: 3 years. Arabic: 10 years. Perhaps surprisingly, difficulty is not a function of tones or lack thereof. I learned 2 tonal languages, and both were easier than Arabic. (Japanese is pretty easy in terms of basics, as it is so repetitive and has maybe 5 vowel sounds only. To learn the subtleties, however, takes years as well as cultural immersion.)

Not sure that argument works. Thailand's economy, at least its modern economy, is based primarily on 2 things: Tourism and FDI. Having facility with the most international of languages is quite useful in both of those things. Size and neighbors also factor into it. A US person living in, for example, Iowa, can travel 1500km in any direction and still be within the US, and if he keeps going north, and avoids Quebec, eh, he still runs into native English speakers. The incentive to learn another language (coupled with laziness) keeps many monolinqual. (I've learned 7 languages as an adult, but admittedly the early 4 have all but disappeared, as either practice or lack of storage space has taken away my ability. I'm well aware of the difficulty of picking up a new language after puberty, even though full brain development doesn't stop until about age 25. Best to get started learning before age 12.) Travel that same 1500 km distance from, say, Brittany, and one hits maybe 15-20 different languages, so admittedly your argument holds more water in the EU. Still, unless Thailand is going to develop a more domestically-driven economy, better English proficiency would be useful.