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Petey11
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Posts posted by Petey11
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35 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:
The reason I ask is because what I think might be happening is say you get tested on Monday the result comes back on Tuesday then you do a confirmation test say Tuesday/Wednesday and the result of that test Wednesday/Thursday depending upon what time the test result is known it could end up in the results reported on Thursday/Friday?I have never seen the numbers referred to anything but the reported number of cases with no mention of when the tests actually took place.This is where the lack of transparency seems to come into effect.
Uk used to have a bar graph on PHE showing numbers reported and then date taken. Confusing as hell trying to interpret the graph, definitely a job for the statistics boffs. Better to look at the presented overall numbers for laymen I think.
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2 minutes ago, anchadian said:
https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1392358654678994944
For those asking which districts in Bangkok had the most recorded #COVID19 cases for yesterday, here is a color-coded map. All of the dark red districts had 100+ cases #Bangkok #Thailand
Comparing the map to previous ones you can see how the darker colours have been spreading outwards from the centre. Typical virus spread radiating out from the centre. Hope I'm wrong but the surrounding provinces are the ones to watch next, all dependant on testing of course.
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1 hour ago, KannikaP said:Only in Thailand that I know of.
It's a Thainess, sell more pay more and the 'I'm selling less so I'll put prices', instead of lower to encourage more sales.
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20 minutes ago, TaoNow said:Petey11, I don't think it is a question of whether the testing is ample or not.
Instead, the question is how strategic is the testing being done?
I think that all countries around the world agree that it would be counterproductive to conduct mass testing of the population, even if you had the resources to do it. You would come up with too many negatives and not be able to react quickly to the next outbreak.
Instead, what I think Thailand is doing is to conduct targeted testing of those communities when sample surveillance shows the positivity rate (infections per persons tested) exceeds a certain level.
That seems to me to be the most efficient use of testing resources.
But please feel free to propose an alternative strategy to contain the epidemic, 18 months after its emergence in Thailand.
Only problem with targeted testing is you target an area after you see a cluster evolve through the number of walk-ins. With mass random testing, if you are returning say 2-3% positive you know the infection is there but not in great numbers. If you start getting returns of 8-10% you know you have a problem of widespread infection. It's all good targeting an area when you know you have a problem, but that cluster area you are targeting has been brewing for 2-4 weeks or more. In that time, those infected can spread it to other areas. It's like fighting bush/forest fires, you find it, put it out but unbeknown it has spread underground or jumped by sparks to another area. Before random testing in the UK , this was the same situation, by the time they realized the Kent variant was a problem in the Kent area it had spread to London, then southeast and so on. Now in the UK anyone can get a test, cross lateral if no symptoms and PCR if symptomatic, all free. The WHO had the mantra of test, test, test, actively seek the infections and isolate those carriers. What is the alternative to stop it, lock down all areas if you don't get in front of the virus. Proactive over reactive. But like you so rightly mentioned on "effective use of resources", it all comes down to how much money you want to throw at it. If resources are the limit to testing, just own up and say we have limited resources/money and cannot do more, but I honestly think it's not about the money in Thailand, it's reluctance to spend it and maybe show up the real scale of the problem, saving face scenario. I also think the free test if positive, charge for if negative ,that I've heard reported (if true) , does not encourage people to come forward, or the prospect of two weeks in a field hospital. There are many factors influencing the situation in Thailand, same as all countries. Political for sure and medical. I'm certain that if the doctors on the CCSA had a totally free reign to do as they wish without any constraints, financial or political, you would see a lot more testing been carried out.
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1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:
The deans of Thailand’s three top medical colleges today (Tuesday) urged the authorities to speed up active screening of people in slum areas in Bangkok, to separate those infected with COVID-19 from others in their communities to slow the rate of transmission.
https://www.facebook.com/ThaiPBSWorld/posts/4395894483789181
If you have members of the medical community now coming out saying they to speed up and increase testing, where does that put those who say testing is ample?
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33 minutes ago, KhunMorris said:
This flat 2000 cases a day is a red herring and NOT indicative of what's happening in hospitals and clinics.
Thailand are simply NOT testing enough. People need to accept that. No other country in the world has had flat numbers of cases for two weeks straight. Its either trending up OR down.
Additionally the lack of lockdown means that the virus will continue to thrive despite what the government is reporting.
I've said before that I know a few people who've tested positive for Covid after symptoms, entire families. They've not reported this and have chosen to self-isolate. They used Lateral Flow tests.
Sincerely
MORRIS
Been said by many, including myself, but still those who say testing is enough. Lab tests for PUI has stayed pretty constant at average 15k and numbers if positive have stayed pretty constant, but hey, some will still deny there is any connection between the two.
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5 hours ago, rabas said:
None of these are credible sources or discuss overall death tolls, one talks about a few deaths in Britian last week. That ref is duplicated.
However, it's a moot point because real death tolls, not recored deaths, estimated by experts are going to be off the charts. Already they estimate a real global death toll is at 6.9 million, and the pandemic may be less than half over, we just don't know.
New analysis finds global Covid death toll is double official estimates
-- from a medical source May 6, 2021
original publication:
So national newspapers reporting on figures for ONS UK are not credible. If that's the case you could say any news source reporting figures from the CCSA are not credible then. I'm fact any reports unless read from a certified government organization are not credible by your standards then.
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This knee-jerk vaccine reaction is crazy. The infection is in the area, it takes 3 weeks or more for the vaccine to work. They need to get a proper organized nationwide vaccine program going, elderly and vunerable first , then by age.
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2 hours ago, Jingthing said:
Widely reported?
Uh huh.
Then I'm sure you'll have no problem supplying at least one credible source for that assertion.
Sources
https://www.rt.com/uk/520970-engalnd-covid-deaths-virus/
https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/1382253814053490688
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/13/quarter-covid-deaths-not-caused-virus/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/05/05/one-third-recent-covid-deaths-not-caused-virus/
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I'd say an overlift, ignoring the warning bell and overriding the crane control, but could have been ground failure but cannot see the leg on rest behind slabs. It's amazing how little can turn a crane when at full lift capability, can be the difference of worker just leaning on or pulling the load.
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8 minutes ago, pikao said:Don't expect too much
Dr Gédéon confirmed that there is continuous community transmission. “Seychelles have currently 1068 active cases out of which 40 are health workers. Out of the confirmed 6373 cumulative cases, 5277 cases have been recovered. Of the current active cases, 84% are Seychellois and 16% foreigners. 65% of active cases are unvaccinated or had one dose of vaccine. 35% of the positive cases have taken both doses. Of all vaccinated cases 81% had received both doses and have let down their guard. The total number of pupils who tested positive from Crèche 1 to S5 are 49 and 16 are from post-secondary. The Family Hospital services are working at capacity.”
Seychelles is the most vaccinated country on earth
Hence the importance of getting very high vaccination rates. Although vaccine does not stop you from getting infected, studies have shown reduced transmission if you have been vaccinated, but if you have 40% of population walking around unvaccinated, there is still a large pool of hosts for the virus to keep spreading. Also vaccination stops a large percentage of those who get infected getting seriously ill and not putting pressure on healthcare systems. Theory is that eventually it will just become an annoying virus I think, much like various other viruses that infect us but we shrug off after some home medication.
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2 hours ago, Suua said:Can you imagine the figures in BKK if they conducted 100,000 test per day. ????
If the positivity rate is truly 5% then it would be 5000. That's the idea of mass testing. If the true rate is say 2%, then 2000, but when just testing cluster areas as they pop up you don't get a true picture of overall infection, hence WHO saying test,test,test. Constantly testing just 20k people a day and getting 2000 positive results each time,gives no indication of if the virus is spreading. If the positives fall to 1000 then you know it is fading away, if they stay the same you just don't know.
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8 hours ago, bwpage3 said:
You just don't get that Thailand is not testing enough people per day to get an accurate account of the number of covid cases.
Read some of the other posts that already mentioned this.
Exactly, WHO recommends a rate of 5%positivity and an ideal rate of 3% positivity of people tested, or below, to show adequate testing is been carried out so as not to miss a higher percentage of cases. Confusion comes from rates arrived at from total tests as opposed to people tested, as repeat testing can cancel out eg. person tests positive, later negative for release. Testing should also be widespread and not just concentrated on target areas as this gives a false positivity. If you test areas and start getting very low positives in those areas it counteracts the positive rates in the high cluster hotspot areas and those coming forward with symptoms/contact trace, and gives the overall rate. If that rate is low then you know you are testing adequately and not missing cases.
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4 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:
Yes, it’s very common.
Iran did for months, and look what happened there when testing was sorted out.
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7 hours ago, Surelynot said:Wack-a-mole plays well with the Thai public I imagine.....looks like the government and at least trying.
Sad that it simply won't work.......it is like lockdowns......essential only due to the absence of a vaccine.
Exactly, uk tried the whack-a-mole approach, as even voiced in a speech by Boris, and look how that turned out. By the time you see the mole and start whacking it's already popped out unseen in several other places. Possibly 2-4 weeks before you realize you have a cluster emerging, by which time those infected could have spread the virus to other areas.
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Amazing two tier system, area closed with no one in or out, surprise, surprise, most people migrants. If it was majority Thai workers, bet they wouldn't do the same?
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1 hour ago, sirineou said:
People complain that Thailand might be underreporting the number of cases ,and they might be right, hens their covid standing in the world are not as good, but that fails to consider that many other countries are also either actively or inadvertently are under-reporting also.
Well said, I think all countries are under reporting due to the fact a certain percentage will not get tested regardless, unless they become sick enough to seek treatment, those who are asymptomatic and just don't know they are carrying the virus. Also those countries with low testing, due to financial constraints or purposeful low testing and then those few countries e.g. Tanzania which point blank denied it even existed in their country. Report on tv from epidemiologist today said in India the testing has been cut back in the past few days, in his opinion to make it look like the situation is improving.
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33 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:
If the national positivity rate in Thailand was truly 12.8% in the week leading up to 1st May, the number of cases right now would not be declining, but would instead be spiking. Where random sampling figures have been listed, the positivity rate has not been that high.
Clearly, understanding the data is a problem.
Here is a snippet from the Pattaya News today about testing:
”Today, a total of 242 contacts were searched, and 1,231 more proactive ones were searched (pending results).
Aggressive searching, 715 more royal vehicles”That looks like more than 2,000 tests, with 91 positive. But, it’s unlikely that more than 10% of all lab tests were performed in Chonburi alone. We are not getting the full picture.
What we do know is that the infection rate has been lower or stable for the last 10 days.
Those 2000 tests are still awaiting results by the reading of it, I have read the article myself. These may take up to 4 days to feed into official figures released.
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3 hours ago, sirineou said:
Cases here in Thailand were very low, so the new situation is a bit of a shock to the system , but comparing to other countries , Thailand still does does very well . For instance Greece , where I have friends and family , is only 11 million people, and they have close to thee thousand cases a day, and they are not panicking, instead they are opening up to vaccinated people soon. Thailand is 77 million people , they have one third the covid cases , and they are in a panic. Wife and me .We are seating here in our ASQ doing our seven day quarantine, we are both fully vaccinated, and we are treated like we are the plague. After all the tests , and vaccinations we had, we are probaby the safest people in Thailand LOL
Maybe they are in a panic because they know it's worse than the figures show, CCSA even said they don't have full picture.
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3 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:
CCSA orders urgent vaccination for Klong Toei residents
...
“Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha, who chaired the CCSA meeting on Monday, ordered the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) to start the vaccination on Tuesday at two locations in Klong Toei: Tesco Lotus Rama IV and Klong Toei Witthaya School from 1pm,” said Aswin.
“We expect to vaccinate 1,000 people on the first day, and about 2,000-3,000 in the following days.”Aswin added that the BMA would also launch active testing in Klong Toei areas at up to 1,000 people per day until May 19.
“We expect to test up to 20,000 people living in Klong Toei from the estimated total of 90,000 people in the areas.”
(more)
https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40000502
Knee-jerk and clueless top man.
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Hmmm, airline staff over elderly and vunerable, good move????
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2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:
As I said, random sampling gives an estimate of the positivity rate in the area sampled. 1,000 samples can provide a reasonable estimate for Bangkok if samples are taken City-wide. But, that survey might have a large margin of error for specific regions, like Klong Toey.
In the uk the ONS carries out random testing, symptoms reporting etc, across a large number of households across the whole of UK. This is done in conjunction with some of the university hospitals. The weekly results they have published all the way through the pandemic give a clearer picture as they are truly random. They can also differ quite substantially from the official reports on numbers. At the peak in January they estimated 1 in 30 people had Covid in the UK, up to as high as 1 in 20 in London. Last week official figures showed an 11% decline in cases, the ONS report estimated it to be a 40% decline. While there is still margins for error, even the SAGE commuter takes these reports into account when assessing the situation I believe. So yes, I think true random mass sampling is useful for getting a try picture of what is going on in the community.
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From the CCSA saying 80% up??? people asymptomatic, can't see this more than a PR exercise. Personally, if I had a temperature, the last thing I would be thinking of doing is get up and go out and about unless it was going to go to doctor/hospital. My friend had Covid with the fever etc and he said it was as much as he could do to get up and go to the bathroom.
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14 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:
Actually, Thailand conducts over 50,000 tests a day.
As for the people standing outside the hospital, how do you know they are there for free food?
Including repeat testing of those already tested positive, only 15-20k new person's tested a day.
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Thai Govt. approves walk-in COVID-19 inoculation facilities in all provinces
in Thailand News
Posted
Good point about available vaccinations. Can see it now if they are going to be a turn up and get a shot centre. Queue for hours and then told sorry, run out of vaccine today, try again tomorrow.