Petey11

2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

As I said, random sampling gives an estimate of the positivity rate in the area sampled. 1,000 samples can provide a reasonable estimate for Bangkok if samples are taken City-wide. But, that survey might have a large margin of error for specific regions, like Klong Toey.

In the uk the ONS carries out random testing, symptoms reporting etc, across a large number of households across the whole of UK. This is done in conjunction with some of the university hospitals. The weekly results they have published all the way through the pandemic give a clearer picture as they are truly random. They can also differ quite substantially from the official reports on numbers. At the peak in January they estimated 1 in 30 people had Covid in the UK, up to as high as 1 in 20 in London. Last week official figures showed an 11% decline in cases, the ONS report estimated it to be a 40% decline. While there is still margins for error, even the SAGE commuter takes these reports into account when assessing the situation I believe. So yes, I think true random mass sampling is useful for getting a try picture of what is going on in the community.

From the CCSA saying 80% up??? people asymptomatic, can't see this more than a PR exercise. Personally, if I had a temperature, the last thing I would be thinking of doing is get up and go out and about unless it was going to go to doctor/hospital. My friend had Covid with the fever etc and he said it was as much as he could do to get up and go to the bathroom.

14 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Actually, Thailand conducts over 50,000 tests a day.

 

As for the people standing outside the hospital, how do you know they are there for free food?

Including repeat testing of those already tested positive, only 15-20k new person's tested a day.

2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

We have been through this. Thailand is doing 50,000 tests a day.

 

The positivity rate seems to be under 5%. 
 

I am not totally confident with these numbers, but the reduced numbers of new cases is consistent with them.

Should concentrate on number of tests on new PUI as total testing includes repeat testing, flight PCR certificate, international quarantine, etc. Tests on new persons coming forward and the results gives a better clarity on the situation. If someone tests positive and is then tested again say 10 days later and is negative, the two tests cancel each other out in positivity.

2 hours ago, hotchilli said:

I think the daily tally has dropped a bit because of a drop in testing, many people don't want to go to hospital or have a stay in a field hospital. Looking at the scenes over the last week or so many are shying away from the health authorities.

This is having an affect on infection numbers.

Just thinking if other countries like UK had adopted the same strategy, only get test if you become ill enough, no home quarantine, maybe our "official" number of infections would be lower, seriously ill would still have been similar I suppose and deaths but would knock off all those asymptomatic and mild cases.

If the numbers from the past 4-5 days are to be believed, then I would think the CCSA meeting today would keep restrictions as they are, as the published numbers show a decline, or do the authorities know more than they release to the public. Testing of new PUI seems to have gone up in the past few days so be interesting to see these results feeding in over the next 2-4 days.

13 minutes ago, Damrongsak said:

I think they are aiming at the late night party people, not the rank and file folks.  But there may be better ways of dealing with them. 

Alternatively, gotta go, have to be home by 11. Nah, stay the night, we'll make it an all nighter session.

"Koh Chang hospital is currently unable to provide test certificates to tourists as the hospital only has capacity to carry out 50 tests per day and local residents are currently being given priority."

JUST my opinion, but this statement surely exposes the problem Thailand has in doing large amounts of testing on its population. Think there was only 18000 new PUI yesterday.

2 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Those kinds of things aren't being listed as contributing causes of death. They're being listed as preexisting conditions, which is a different thing. The causes of death are COVID, and then for each case, they also list how they think the infection was acquired.  In a lot of the cases, though, the other kinds of preexisting conditions may have contributed to the COVID deaths.

 

 

But a slipped disc? I have a troublesome knee, if I died from Covid would it say the patient had a bad knee?

Seems like a right fubar when it comes to testing, lucky they've had a whole year to get it properly organised.

2 hours ago, Sheryl said:

 

Not correct but an understandable misunderstanding. The lab tests shown in the daily situation reports are just for PUI.

 

They perfroming  between 40,000 - 50,000 tests a day and positivity rate is currently around 4% (up from 1% previously, but still under the 5% benchmark),

 

From 1- 17 April a total of 601,527 tests done.

 

The  raw data can be downloaded here. Updated weekly but sometimes a bit late, currently goes through 17 April.   https://service.dmsc.moph.go.th/labscovid19/indexen.php 

Would it be fair to say then that tests on PUI is a better gauge to how many new persons are coming forward with possible Covid infection daily, therefore the number of  first tests daily?

4 hours ago, anchadian said:

Thai News Reports

@ThaiNewsReports

 

Bangsaen Beach in Chonburi will be closed from 26-30 April so that officials can do a big clean by spraying disinfectant in the beach area to boost the confidence of citizens and tourists #ThaiNewsReports #Thailand

 

Be better to spend the money on vaccines, testing and ramping up hospital capacity!

5 hours ago, Sametboy2019 said:

Don't understand why they just don't have a lockdown for 10-14 days To get a grip on it.

I'm seeing people on FB travelling around Thailand still.

Think 10-14 day lockdown wouldn't scratch the surface of it. Look around the world at countries affected by the B.1.1.7 variant. UK lockdown to a certain extent of 3 months plus vaccine rollout. Europe going through lock downs. A Turkish government minister arguing that a total lockdown wont control the new variant alone so were going to open up tourism. This variant is a totally different beast to the original virus unfortunately. The sooner the Thai government gets their heads out from their proverbial behinds and looks at what happened in other countries with this variant, and learn the lessons from other countries mistakes, the better.

2 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Did their death make the official statistics? 

Went down as Covid on certificate as far as I know, no post-mortem. Paramedics and doctor were sent but could not resuscitate.

11 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Death occurring fairly quickly for those reported it seems. Within days to just a week or so. No lingering on ventilators.

It happens, its a terrible disease. Family member had it, was quite bad, at home, seemed to be improving slightly, 12 hrs later gone. Went downhill in space of 4-5hrs, didn't even make it to hospital.

4 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

They've got 10,000 ventilators according to official statement. Currenty they have 91 people on ventilators, if you think they are going to be running out then we really are in trouble and lockdown is even more important to do right now.

 

Yes its a wasted year, we have the government promoting travel over Songkran to thank for that, now we are living with the consequences of their ridiculous decisions.

Having ventilators is only one piece of the jigsaw, you also need the space to set up ICU beds and the nurses/doctors to run them. ICU is typically one trained nurse to a bed. In the UK we had the ICU beds but were struggling with the medical staff, with reports of lower grade nurses been allocated to look after ICU beds, sometimes multiple beds at one time, not ideal.

4 hours ago, Marvin Hagler said:

 

These guys decide what the figures will be everyday...he probably knows what numbers they will release over the next 2 weeks.

First thought that I had????

42 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3114719/thailand-test-thousands-covid-19-after-outbreak-shrimp

 

 

this was posted early Tuesday morning.

 

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/30397474

 

Refering to links and quotes, the first is concerned with the previous out break at the shrimp market, some 3 months ago it more. The second refers to antibody testing, not suitable for testing for current/early/asymptomatic  infection.