Petey11

"The new infections were down by a fifth from Sunday's record 1,767 cases, which the coronavirus taskforce said was due to measures to control the spread and requests for people to avoid travel and gatherings."

Don't these dreamers realise that latest restrictions have only been in place for 1 day, takes at least 2 weeks to see the effects of them. Bars have been shut 2 weeks but lat everyone travel the country. Reminds me when they lockdown last March and miraculously numbers started dropping in 2-3 days and they said the same then. I think it's down to problems with testing supply. That's the best restriction to implement, restrict tests as guaranteed to reduce numbers.

3 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

Certainly seems not many people obeying the restrictions in Pattaya.

More massage shops opened then closed, people drinking beer hidden in the dark at the back of the bar or even in the bar right on the street.

 

Thing is, close bars, stop alcohol in restaurants, where are people going to go? Gather at condos/villas to drink, no controls and as discovered in the UK, people's houses with friends best vector for virus next to work places.

1 hour ago, edwardandtubs said:

You're looking at it the wrong way. You should be considering total cases, not new cases. The real question is, what is the doubling time for total cases in this third wave? If it's every 3-4 days then Thailand is in a similar situation to Western countries during their first waves.

Exactly my thoughts previously, it's the double time of cases that shows the speed the infection is spreading hence leading into the R1 amongst other factors. Ultimately it doesn't matter if it's doubling every 2 days or 4 or 6, the infection is still spreading, not reducing. Only when the cases  flat line or drop can you say you have the latest wave under control.

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Various people here keep  asking about the levels of COVID testing occurring in Thailand. With moderator Sheryl's help, we have located a current MoPH website that contains the testing data.

 

Here's an Excel file that shows the total volume of testing and the numbers of positive case daily dating back to January 2020. It gives some idea of the volume of testing that's been occurring. The highest daily number I saw in quickly scanning the file was 36,098 tests back on Jan. 11, 2021.

But I also think we need to be careful about drawing any positivity rate conclusions from the data, because it mentions that the test numbers include repeat tests.

 

The other caveat at the moment is the latest report data only covers thru early April, so thus far is missing most of the current third wave outbreak in April.

 

http://nextcloud.dmsc.moph.go.th/index.php/s/wbioWZAQfManokc

 

COVID Testing-no charts.xlsx 21.63 kB · 2 downloads

 

 

There's also a chart MoPH included in their briefing the other day that I believe indicates their network of testing labs has the capacity to do more than 80,000 COVID tests per day.

 

This site also shows total lab tests and breaks down numbers into PUI etc.

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/situation.php

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/situation.php

These MOPH sites shows total laboratory tests so not sure why figures differ. Casts more confusion and doubt on reports I think if you're of  the cynical kind.

1 hour ago, cocoonclub said:

There will be a gap, of course, but I hope it’s not that many days. I got tested, together with a group of friends, the weekend of 9-11 April at different hospitals and drive-thru facilities. All of us had their results back within 1-2 days max. I think those who tested positive got it a bit earlier (1-1.5 days) because they were called by the hospitals whereas the negative ones were waiting and eventually called the hospital themselves. Not sure how efficient the reporting and consolidation chain from test to report works but I would hope it’s not several days. 

I agree that the person having the test could get their results quicker. Maybe I should have put it better, that it can take time for the figures to feed into the officially reported numbers. Its the same in UK, if you have the time and conviction to analyse all the reporting charts the date a positive is reported can be 3-4 days after the result is released into the official daily figures. PHE used to do a graph which showed date test compared to reported date. Very complicated but then that's why  the number boffins are employed to digest the figures.

3 minutes ago, sapson said:

We are getting a daily release of the number of positive cases in each province but seems they dont have or release the matching numbers tested in each province, each lab or hospital must have a record of the daily tests they have conducted.

And another thing is figures been released today are probably from tests carried out 4-5 days ago, maybe a week ago. When you look at some timelines released, the final dates of infected persons movements can be 4-5 before released, in some cases over a week.

11 hours ago, yang123 said:

Additional final sentence in the source above:

 

"He added that the parliament already consulted the Ministry of Public Health to arrange for COVID-19 vaccination for members of parliament".

 

 

Well, I suppose a lot of them are old cronies I presume so only fair they get the vaccine before other elderly ????

6 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Thai health officials given 1 month to flatten 3rd wave of Covid

 

Thailand has sufficient hospital beds and medical equipment to handle the surge in Covid-19 cases, Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul announced on Friday.

 

He said health officials have set a deadline of one month to control Thailand’s third wave of infections, which apparently spread from upscale nightclubs in Bangkok.

 

Anutin said the number of new cases would fall quickly now that the government has imposed strict measures including closure orders for entertainment venues.

 

https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30404968

 

Said cases would fall quickly. Sounds like he already knows what the future numbers are going to be. Think I read that the governor of Bangkok said similar that cases would remain at 483 daily at the present time. Maybe they're letting slip their preplanned infection rates.

4 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Third wave not expected to subside until June

 

"Internal discussions within the government and the public health ministry suggest that the current wave of the pandemic will not be brought under control until June, sources told Thai Enquirer on Friday.

 

“Even if the country were brought into a lockdown immediately, the Songkran travels have likely made the situation much worse,” said a source in the health ministry who requested anonymity.

 

“Internal discussions say that in a best case scenario, we will have the situation under control by late May to early June,” the source told Thai Enquirer by phone."

 

(more)

 

https://www.thaienquirer.com/26425/third-wave-not-expected-to-subside-until-june/

 

And "under control" likely means wave is no longer spreading and cases are starting to fall.

1 hour ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Cases stable....still no exponential growth. A good sign.

I think you need to read up on how exponential growth in viruses works, it's the doubling rate, be it 1 day, 4 days etc. Thailand seems to be in a 4-5 day rate. Even if it a seven day doubling, just do the maths and see how it adds up over a month. Covid is still producing a R1 of above one that means it's still spreading.

Of course the clusters will have ended in a month, Mr Covid would have done with those people and moved in to others, or the government will "ensure" they've ended.

2 hours ago, Cake Monster said:

I really dont think the posters on here have been desperate for C19  to get out of control in the Country, and are certainly not happy.

Most, if not all, have a genuine concern for the welfare, and wellbeing of the Thai people, and this has been shown in some frustrated way through the various postings. Most of which are firmly aimed at the people who should be doing something to help the Nation, but do not seem to be able to function under the pressure.

I agree with what you say, no one of sane morals would wish this disease on anyone. When I talk to my girlfriend in Thailand, she thinks I'm just "yakking" her about it. I've said many times it's more aimed at those in charge who should be making the right decisions and it is out of concern for the Thai population. Explained I'm speaking from experience living the UK, we've been through it and can see the devastating effects on people with the loss of life, economy and mental health issues. Half the time I get the Thainess insular response of changing the subject ????.

3 hours ago, rabas said:

An better measure would be, how many of yesterday's 1543 cases were asymptomatic when tested?

 

I don't know but likely quite a few.  Thailand (not Prayut) has multiple established procedures to find such cases including extensive tracing, recommendations for people who may have been exposed,  two software tracking systems, proactive testing, and surge testing after outbreaks.

 

Since roughly half of the spreaders may be asymptomatic, and 30% may never get symptoms, all counties face these same issues.

Yes, all countries face the problem of asymptomatic spread, hence the UK has moved to offering free cross lateral flow tests to every person, twice a week, if they so wish to do. Test high to find those asymptomatic cases because they are not going to be picked up by just testing those with symptoms, and maybe just a few if limited to high risk contact.

3 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Less than doubling is hardly exponential. 

If you look at the trend it seems to be doubling roughly every 4.5days. In the UK the epidemiologists in briefings often quoted the doubling time as I think they use it to feed into possible R-1 number. All infectious viruses grow exponentially without interventions, be it over 2 days or 200 days, this is one factor that allows them to work out the R number at a particular point in time.

1 hour ago, FarFlungFalang said:

The week leading up to the April 4th the seven day rolling average was about 16,000 tests per day according to world in data.

 

 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing#how-many-tests-are-performed-each-day

 

That figure is different on the MOPH site listing laboratory tests carried out. Only in the last couple of days has it started to go up from about 3k a day, now to 16k listed for yesterday. 

9 minutes ago, Nismooo said:

Does anyone thinks its a coincidence that the same week quarantine is reduced to 10 days is the week when a new outbreak hits? 

 

Or totally unrelated?

 

I know, that superspreaders in Thong lor are taking the blame for this but still... It only takes one or two to slip through quarantine with one of these mutations to cause a serious situation in my opinion. 

This outbreak started before anyone in 10 day quarantine programme was released I believe.

25 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

The COVID case projections listed in the chart below are DAILY estimates based on various planning scenarios:

 

 

"According to Dr. Sopon Iamsirithaworn, the deputy director-general of the Department of Disease Control (DDC), the epidemiology division in collaboration with the International Health Policy Program had come up with a mathematical model to predict the number of people who could become infected per day if safety measures were not observed.

 

In a worst-case scenario with no disease control measures in place, 28,678 people could be infected per day, he said.

 

However, the average number of daily cases under this scenario would be 9,140, Dr Sopon added, while noting the lowest number could be 1,308 if people do not comply with safety measures."

 

https://www.facebook.com/nbtworld/posts/10157945118667050

 

 

How they'd ever get to that worse case 28k? They never test that number in a day????

1000 odd confinement beds, should keep them going for a week maybe

Thailand very rarely goes over more than 10000 lab tests a day processed, that seems to be their capability. If you look at Iran, they were always reporting 1500 odd cases a day for months, obviously limited by testing numbers, only recently have the numbers climbed. Ramp up the processing facilities and can then up the tests.

2 hours ago, Smilermike said:

They have to start acting positively to rid this from Thailand. And if that means stopping people from coming into the country or moving around Thailand so be it! Act decisively and stop faffing about. Enforce  the rules anyone that breaks them put them in prison. You cant rid this country  of Covid if you keep thinking about allowing people in. How do you think this uk strain got here? If they had done this in the beginning, all the businesses would now be  at least trying to make some money rather than every few months open  close open close.  Through not being strong in the 1st instance you are crippling the country to a stage where it will takes decades to get back on its feet if at all.

Covid is not going away anywhere in the world soon, unless a miracle happens, it's endemic apart maybe a few small isolated islands with small populations who have been able to stop infected coming in. 

3 hours ago, Nanaplaza666 said:

I can't wonder to think about the locked down area with all the factory workers in samut sakhon being locked up together with all those infected walking around . I am not hearing nothing about that anymore . Did any of them die ?? Where there any of them hospitalized ?? Could it be we didn't hear anything about it anymore because people only got sick and showing symptoms but didn't die ?? Maybe it is not as dangerous as we think or they want us to think . I don't say it's not here because i think it's very widespread already for a long time since the beginning but with lack of testing not being detected . I also don't say i am not worried about the spreading because i think it will spread even more during songkran , i am just saying that i think they should just open up everything and get on with vaccination of elder weaker and people with underlying decease and let it pan out . The human body will built some kind of imune to fight it we can already see how many people actually get infected and just get ill but after a few days or maybe two to 3 weeks get better . Compare nr's of people that get infected and get better to nr's of people that get infected and die and you will see that that percentage of deaths is very low . But that's my opinion amd everybody can think of it what they want .

The factories were probably mostly younger people. Yes, vaccinate the elderly and those with underlying conditions but remember a fair number of younger people still get complications. Hospitals in the UK were seeing a larger number of people in their 40's and 50's admitted as the elders started to get protection from vaccines.

I personally had a family member pass from Covid, 50yr old and no underlying conditions although rare to happen I admit. And then there is the effects of long covid, someone I know still suffering 2 months after catching the virus. In the UK they estimate 25% of people suffer from long covid in some form and seems to be affecting the younger people more, even those who have been asymptomatic with it.

I returned from Thailand to UK February last year, last week in Thailand developed a persistent dry cough which lasted 3 weeks. I put it down to bad air quality (been Chiang Mai and BKK) and too much partying, but then suffered lethargy for several months after, out of breath climbing stairs etc. Was never tested as UK wasn't testing for covid at that point unless you were admitted to hospital. So yes need to vaccinate everyone to reduce the death and severity but it's not going to go away and the more it spreads, the more chance the virus has to mutate, hence vaccinated countries still trying to control it. This is like a lottery virus in my opinion, some are lucky, some are not, but age is no guarantee you won't be affected badly.