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Adumbration

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Everything posted by Adumbration

  1. Never. If it is working correctly.
  2. Avoid it at all costs.
  3. Not true. I have a usufruct entitlement on the back of my house chanote. I am registered with immigration as both the controller and occupant of the property.
  4. 95% of the people working in Thai massage shops in tourist areas have no idea how to massage properly. Go to a blind massage clinic. And massage with most elderly male guy in the shop. 150 baht per hour in Phuket town. Customers almost exclusively elderly rich and middle class Thais. You will need to book in advance. Have you quit your night shift security guard job in Australia yet? Or was that just part of your assumed identity for your paid poster gig?
  5. My choice of the name Little Odessa is not by accident. It is adumbrative, not just for Phuket but for Ukraine as well. You are a smart guy SM. But this time around you missed the nuance.
  6. I just got back from Phuket yesterday. I had to visit to help an older friend pack up his house to move out. In the wake of my observations of what is currently unfolding on the Island, is it prudent, moving forward, that were refer to Phuket as Little Odessa?
  7. Tolerance is not the issue. Quality of life is. Most expats are here seeking a better quality of life and when an issue impinges upon that quality, they, if the resources are at hand, will make changes. Russians in Rawai are a significant issue. I know first hand. I just got back from there yesterday.
  8. Common causes for appendicitus are watermelon seeds and tooth brush bristles. Don't eat seeds and replace your toothbrush regularly and you are all set to hit 100.
  9. I could not care less about this. I have 800K in the bank have done for decades. When is he going to address the charge for residency certificates that are supposed to be free. That would at least be of some benefit to me.
  10. The investigation will result in the finding that it is the fault of the farangs. If they were not here in Thailand the Immigration officers would not have to issue fake visas.
  11. My SGOV investment has yielded just on 8.5 percent return over just two months on the collapse of the Australian dollar. In addition to the monthly distribution yield that is just shy of 5% but will increase when the Fed raises the cash rate another 50 basis points towards the end of the month.
  12. Collapse really picking up steam now. RBA went soft on 25 point increase last week. Fed is going to go a full 50 points next meeting. Australian residential property is toast. MSM in Australia has suddenly realised that they will be at war with China within 3 years and 70 of the export market will be lost. Diana Mousina, a senior economist at AMP, has put out a special note on the level of mortgage stress in Australia. She says Australian household debt as a share of income is sitting around a record high at 189% of income, which is significantly above most of our global peers, and the majority of this debt is in housing. "This makes Australian households vulnerable to changes in home prices and interest rates, with the risk of mortgage stress increasing as home prices fall and interest rates are increased," she says. She says a significant increase in mortgage repayments due to higher interest rates is the biggest risk to household spending in 2023. Household interest costs (as a share of income) reached a bottom of 4.4% in March 2022 thanks to the decline in interest rates over the pandemic, but they've and have now increased to around 7% (however, that measure also includes households that don't have a mortgage, so it dilutes the impact for indebted households). She says the average household in Australia has a mortgage of around $600,000 (across variable and fixed loans). As a rough guide, monthly mortgage repayments are due to increase by around $13,000 per year if we account for the full increase in the cash rate so far (by 325 basis points). But that's underestimating the increase in mortgage servicing costs that will hit households in coming months. She says variable mortgage holders (70% of loans outstanding) will see repayments changing around 3 months after the RBA adjusts the cash rate and fixed mortgage holders (30% of outstanding loans) are only impacted when the loan term expires, with most fixed loans set for 2-3 years in Australia. She says the majority of the interest rate impact on mortgaged households will happen this year, as around 880,000 fixed loans expire in the next 12 months and reset to mortgage interest rates that are 2-3 times higher. Look where things could head (assuming the cash rate hits 4%). There are other parts to her analysis, but her conclusion isn't great. "We think that the downside risks to the household sector are greater than the RBA (and most commentators) are estimating," she says. "In our view, the risk of mortgage stress lies with recent borrowers (those who have taken out loans between 2020 - mid 2022) which is around 62% of outstanding housing loans. These households have not had time to build prepayment buffers, have faced large declines in home prices, have had a very fast repricing of mortgage rates, are more likely to have taken out larger loans and were probably not stress tested for the current increase in interest rates."
  13. Only 31% of properties in Australia are owned outright. More than two thirds have mortgages.
  14. Care factor zero. Anything to do with the RTP here is abhorent to me. Where did a plod on 15K a month get 950K? That is a retorical question by the way.
  15. More than a decade and a half ago I needed signficant dental work done in Australia. I went to the dentist and got a written quote. When the girl gave it to me I laughed in her face. It was just over 18,000 dollars AUD. I flew to Bangkok and had the work done at Prom Jai dental in Thong Lor. The cost was just over 2,000 AUD all up. And they keep asking me if I wanted a letter to claim if on insurance.
  16. Sheryl. Are you suggesting that Vietnam is a viable alternative to have surgical procedures?
  17. Can you please PM me the contact details for your Doctor in Udon Thani that does cryotherapy (liquid Nitorgen) for 300 baht.
  18. I gave up of trying to guide other expats more than a decade ago. Burnt way to many times. Nowadays when they seek to discuss their partners with me I just try to provide a postive but entirely neutral response:- "She has a cute smile".
  19. And now 3 decades later you are living pension check to pension check in a rental what happened? No doubt your no cause eviction notice will arrive shortly and then you will be living in a tent like all of the pensioners in this article: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-27/sydney-rental-crisis-hits-hard-state-election/102019950
  20. Farangs can't own land. That was in the back of your mind when you didn't buy it.
  21. Sigh. It is mind boggling how fast they have about faced on their attitude to tourists. Phuket really does suck...so bad. This new system is designed specifically to give the RTP more leverage to extort farangs. Why don't they just transfer tourists that break the law to an inactive post.
  22. Diana Mousina, a senior economist at AMP, has put out a special note on the level of mortgage stress in Australia. She says Australian household debt as a share of income is sitting around a record high at 189% of income, which is significantly above most of our global peers, and the majority of this debt is in housing. "This makes Australian households vulnerable to changes in home prices and interest rates, with the risk of mortgage stress increasing as home prices fall and interest rates are increased," she says. She says a significant increase in mortgage repayments due to higher interest rates is the biggest risk to household spending in 2023. Household interest costs (as a share of income) reached a bottom of 4.4% in March 2022 thanks to the decline in interest rates over the pandemic, but they've and have now increased to around 7% (however, that measure also includes households that don't have a mortgage, so it dilutes the impact for indebted households). She says the average household in Australia has a mortgage of around $600,000 (across variable and fixed loans). As a rough guide, monthly mortgage repayments are due to increase by around $13,000 per year if we account for the full increase in the cash rate so far (by 325 basis points). But that's underestimating the increase in mortgage servicing costs that will hit households in coming months. She says variable mortgage holders (70% of loans outstanding) will see repayments changing around 3 months after the RBA adjusts the cash rate and fixed mortgage holders (30% of outstanding loans) are only impacted when the loan term expires, with most fixed loans set for 2-3 years in Australia. She says the majority of the interest rate impact on mortgaged households will happen this year, as around 880,000 fixed loans expire in the next 12 months and reset to mortgage interest rates that are 2-3 times higher. Look where things could head (assuming the cash rate hits 4%). There are other parts to her analysis, but her conclusion isn't great. "We think that the downside risks to the household sector are greater than the RBA (and most commentators) are estimating," she says. "In our view, the risk of mortgage stress lies with recent borrowers (those who have taken out loans between 2020 - mid 2022) which is around 62% of outstanding housing loans. These households have not had time to build prepayment buffers, have faced large declines in home prices, have had a very fast repricing of mortgage rates, are more likely to have taken out larger loans and were probably not stress tested for the current increase in interest rates."
  23. Diana Mousina, a senior economist at AMP, has put out a special note on the level of mortgage stress in Australia. She says Australian household debt as a share of income is sitting around a record high at 189% of income, which is significantly above most of our global peers, and the majority of this debt is in housing. "This makes Australian households vulnerable to changes in home prices and interest rates, with the risk of mortgage stress increasing as home prices fall and interest rates are increased," she says. She says a significant increase in mortgage repayments due to higher interest rates is the biggest risk to household spending in 2023. Household interest costs (as a share of income) reached a bottom of 4.4% in March 2022 thanks to the decline in interest rates over the pandemic, but they've and have now increased to around 7% (however, that measure also includes households that don't have a mortgage, so it dilutes the impact for indebted households). She says the average household in Australia has a mortgage of around $600,000 (across variable and fixed loans). As a rough guide, monthly mortgage repayments are due to increase by around $13,000 per year if we account for the full increase in the cash rate so far (by 325 basis points). But that's underestimating the increase in mortgage servicing costs that will hit households in coming months. She says variable mortgage holders (70% of loans outstanding) will see repayments changing around 3 months after the RBA adjusts the cash rate and fixed mortgage holders (30% of outstanding loans) are only impacted when the loan term expires, with most fixed loans set for 2-3 years in Australia. She says the majority of the interest rate impact on mortgaged households will happen this year, as around 880,000 fixed loans expire in the next 12 months and reset to mortgage interest rates that are 2-3 times higher. Look where things could head (assuming the cash rate hits 4%). There are other parts to her analysis, but her conclusion isn't great. "We think that the downside risks to the household sector are greater than the RBA (and most commentators) are estimating," she says. "In our view, the risk of mortgage stress lies with recent borrowers (those who have taken out loans between 2020 - mid 2022) which is around 62% of outstanding housing loans. These households have not had time to build prepayment buffers, have faced large declines in home prices, have had a very fast repricing of mortgage rates, are more likely to have taken out larger loans and were probably not stress tested for the current increase in interest rates."
  24. And no doubt in a corrupt to the core destination like Phuket Bangkok hospital pays the highest kickback to the EMS drivers.
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