vermin on arrival

8 minutes ago, reallyaffiliated said:

Yup. I just bought a ticket for 3rd of July - Amsterdam -> Bangkok with Lufthansa, their support told me the flight will go. So fingers crossed. Will visit the embassy next week for my visa.

Yeah, I was told the same. Good luck. All people who are not officially residents who need to get somewhere will need it. I regret not having incorporated and making myself an official resident of Taiwan. Since my I wasn't there full time or working, I always thought next year when I get more serious. Now I am screwed with a flat paid in advance for the full year unused and unable to get home.

2 hours ago, reallyaffiliated said:

Hmm I guess it's all a waiting game. But I do think what he said on the phone to inform with the airlines is a good idea, I think that if an airline can confirm that they will in fact fly to BKK on set date that they wouldn't just say that without confirmation from the government. That's also what the guy from the embassy told me.

They will have flights up with tickets to be sold but you might not know if you will be able to board or the flight will go until sometime near the week before. I bought a China Airlines ticket to Taipei end of April. Kept calling once each week, and it was all systems go. Then called last Friday and they said as I was a non citizen/resident I could not board my June 1 flight, but maybe in July...I would get full refund for the June ticket and could buy a new one. Told me to call around June 20 to see if I could board in July. They set up the flights but will knock them down the moment they are told a new extended ban is on.

1 minute ago, wensiensheng said:

Perhaps he was referring to other countries that have seen a rise in cases as restrictions ease? S Korea and Germany spring to mind.

Yeah but those numbers were small and to be expected.

18 minutes ago, Susco said:

Something probably going over my head here, but I thought deaths by day are deaths by day.

 

From what I can see on this page, looks to me that Sweden has peaked 1 month ago, but in the past few days is rapidly increasing again.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

 

 

 

Yeah but when you look at the graph you can see a number of spikes but it looks like they are on the downward slope of the curve.

18 minutes ago, ukrules said:

So if you return from abroad first you've got 2 weeks in quarantine, then you 'go home' and that's when your local isolation begins.

 

This is from a Thai who is going to Sakhon Nakhon in the next few days, travelling from Hua Hin via Bangkok and on to Sakhon Nakhon.

 

So 4 weeks quarantine (2 weeks X2). That is over the top.

2 minutes ago, chrisinth said:

I know it's tough for the tourism industry, but under the current proposals of having tourists quarantine for 14 days when they arrive, they ain't going to get anybody. Lift the quarantine requirements you may get more numbers but you will almost certainly increase numbers of infected persons. You shouldn't forget that all these people being re patronized are meant to be holding documentation stating they are free of the Covid-19 virus.

There definitely would be people coming with the 14 day quarantine. There are people who need to be in certain places and don't have one year visas or resident status. The 14 day quarantine would keep things in check as recent research from Singapore shows the virus isn't infectious after 11 days. It makes sense to lift these flight bans relatively soon (July?) with sensible precautions in place.

3 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

So showing barely any symptoms while in quarantine, what if they are not showing any signs, are they then let go at the end of the 14 days and possibly still being asymptomatic or are they possibly actually giving them all tests?

 

Let me just say....They walk amongst us as well those that are possibly asymptomatic, but we will never know until someone else becomes ill.  If so then why not relax the measures in place, or are they afraid of a full scale blow up...I think we know the answer to that.....

Interesting new research from Singapore. People not infectious after 11 days. So after 14 days of quarantine we will be fine. "A positive test “does not equate to infectiousness or viable virus,” a joint research paper by Singapore’s National Centre for Infectious Diseases and the Academy of Medicine, Singapore said. The virus “could not be isolated or cultured after day 11 of illness.”https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-24/covid-19-patients-not-infectious-after-11-days-singapore-study

2 hours ago, Fairynuff said:

So what would the death rate have been if nothing was done? 4.5% or 45%? Nobody knows. Perhaps the low death rate is because everything was shut down.

Actually an Oxford epidemiologist, Professor Sunetra Gupta, said it might have been completely unnecessary and in some ways made thing worse in Britain by emptying hospitals and seeding care homes with already infected patients to start outbreaks amongst the more vulnerable. She obviously offers and dissenting voice to Ferguson. Her interview is very interesting. A similar thing happened in NY care homes when Gov. Cuomo required nursing homes to take in ill patients from the hospitals.

I would post the link, but you can search for the youtube video: Professor Sunetra Gupta: the epidemic is on its way out.

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

Sweden did not lockdown, went for herd immunity and at first it appeared to be working.  However, now they have the highest percentage of deaths in Europe.  Damned if you do, damned if you don't 

 Yes, but theirs is a more long term marathon approach. There will be more cases and deaths, but then if the other waves materialize, they will not have to deal with the same hardships of infection, death and more lockdowns as their neighbors will. And let's face it their numbers of deaths while when it looked at comparatively are large, are not huge numbers.

2017 the number of influenza and pneumonia deaths in Sweden were 3,589. Covid will certainly be more but probably not by a crazy multiplier.

https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/sweden-influenza-pneumonia

9 minutes ago, Fairynuff said:

So what would the death rate have been if nothing was done? 4.5% or 45%? Nobody knows. Perhaps the low death rate is because everything was shut down.

Definitely not 45%. It's not the black death. And in reality, it's not even close to 4% when you look at any reputable study of the ifr. For sure, something needed to be done. Seems like some of the stuff was overkill.

7 minutes ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

You're saying this based on what? From official survey results we know for sure at least 7% of people in Stockholm already had antibodies as of late April - which means they were infected in early April - it takes a few weeks to build antibodies. It's been almost two months since early April, and peak new confirmed cases was April 22, so it's safe to assume the current percentage of people with antibodies is much higher than 7%.

The hard talk episode was on May 19 and Tegnell said they were at 10-15% then.

10 minutes ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

See above about herd immunity. As for the lack of deaths in Japan I think it could be explained by people generally being healthier and more active. Obesity rate in the US is 30-40%, in Japan it's 3-4%. This can also explain the lack of deaths in other countries where obesity is not a big problem - like Thailand!

Yes, the unhealthy societies are getting hit really hard. It's really amazing looking at the drop in all the numbers from Japan.

4 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Business as usual around here.

Exactly. And it was my first take when I saw the haphazard method with which it was being done

4 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Unlikely.. here's why:

 

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-how-to-do-testing-and-contact-tracing-bde85b64072e

 

And that's for bluetooth, QR that is not enforced is likely even worse.

So it's pretty much a waste of time that is just for show.

2 hours ago, JimGant said:

Still, shuttering an entire economy due to a 4% death rate just, somehow, doesn't resonate....

Do you mean the confirmed cfr(case fatality rate) as 3-4% which the WHO seems to be giving? Actually the ifr (infected fatality rate-including asymptomatic and people with milder cases that didn't seek treatment)) is estimated at much less than that. It's seems to be anywhere from .1-1% with some estimates at around .4% seeming the most likely. I think it's the large raw numbers of dead in Spain, Franc, UK Italy, and especially the US, which is alarming people. Also the ugly situation which is developing in Brazil where the Bolsanaro government seems to be doing little to mitigate the situation. If we use/believe Thailand's official stats, the cfr is 1.8% here.

3 hours ago, talahtnut said:

Isn't solitary confinement illegal for prisoners

in some countries?

“We’ve seen a year’s worth of suicide attempts in the

last four weeks,” Dr Mike deBoisblanc, lead trauma

surgeon at the John Muir Medical Center in Walnut

Creek, California, told local media on Thursday,

confirming the center had seen more deaths from

suicide over the two-month lockdown period than

deaths from coronavirus.

 

Yes and here is the link from May22: https://abc7news.com/suicide-covid-19-coronavirus-rates-during-pandemic-death-by/6201962/

8 minutes ago, Jajazazajaja said:

there is no evidence that people retain enough antibodies to become immune to this 

There is also no evidence that it will not happen. It's much more likely for it to behave like other diseases of its ilk than not, and will confer short term, 1 to 3 years immunity.

24 minutes ago, AgMech Cowboy said:

I couldn't agree more; although, I think S. Korea, Taiwan, Sweden and the USA South & West will recover more quickly.

Wrong thread? I don't see the original post here.

Back home to Taiwan.

4 hours ago, gordyg422 said:

Well hopefully they will open incoming flights after june as i am desperate to be with my wife & kids so i would pay after being stuck offshore for 16 weeks. 

I hope so for you too. Taiwan is still closed. I was just told I couldn't board my June 1 flight. Was told maybe July. Stuck in the flat I was giving up at the end of March with 80% of my belongings in storage. Can't get back to my flat there which I have paid for until the end of the year. I'm slowly losing my mind...