vermin on arrival

6 minutes ago, chessman said:

This could well be the case but one could also imagine the mortality rate of Norway, Finland or Denmark never approaching what it is in Sweden because they will have learnt from Sweden’s mistakes. They will protect care homes more and they will be better prepared in terms of PPE and testing.

 

If their economic downturns are going to be similar to Sweden’s (another metric we don’t know yet) then  their method, with short sharp lockdowns, will be considered more effective.

 

but those are two big questions we won’t know the answers to for a while...

The real problem with Sweden's mortality rate was that they didn't properly protect the nursing homes, which they had actually intended to do, but failed. I don't know if it is necessarily an inherent flaw in the approach. Many countries failed in this respect, even ones with lockdowns.  Taiwan didn't lockdown, but successfully protected their nursing homes. Certainly, Sweden's neighbors protected their nursing homes properly. I know in Norway's case the care homes are much smaller so if there were a problem at one it would have more minor consequences.

11 hours ago, tomazbodner said:

How relevant is this topic now that other Scandinavian countries consider the pandemic over and have opened borders, but kept it shut for Sweden that's having an outbreak reaching 50,000 infections and nearly 5000 deaths, more than all other Scandinavian countries together.

 

Or maybe it is relevant - what does the OP think? Did this answer his question?

I think the pandemic being over anywhere is just a temporary thing since covid will most likely be endemic. Sweden's strategy was for a marathon and not a 2-3 month sprint. We won't know for a year or two if it's strategy was better or not.

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

True, but I think we we also have to draw a distinction as to what stage the pandemic is in at any particular country as well as other causes for surges. For example the UK has increased testing to an average of 200,000 per day since the beginning of June, previous to that it hovered around 100,000 per day. But as a result of this large increase in testing the trend line and daily new case figures continue to drop.

It's going to be interesting long term to see if these countries which got hammered and people are saying will be regarded as toxic places, are actually going to be disaster proofed and have better long term prospects because they reached the "saturation point"/ herd immunity and the places which people think did significantly better end up having long term issues and concerns with the disease returning since no significant portion of the population caught the disease.

Here is a very interesting debate between the physician Marty Makary and the epidemiologist Knut Wittkowski on the issue of lockdowns in the US. It has relevance to Sweden and the whole issue of herd immunity. Knut would think that the other Scandinavian nations would have big long term problems since they would have little immunity. In the short term, they were more successful, but long term, from his perspective, they will have bigger problems.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AtFtjk3YoO8

44 minutes ago, Keyser Soze666 said:

A fortune?? You mean a few hundred bucks?

Well maybe he would normally enjoy boatloads of hookers and beer

1 hour ago, Puccini said:

Has this already been posted?

Which comes back to the thought that number of new cases is not the true metric because that can be changed by things other than a true surge in infections (reporting, increased testing, changing in what is considered a confirmed case, change in tests used, etc).

The thing we need to focus on is number of deaths. It's also interesting to note in Michael Levitt's models, he uses excess deaths as his number for covid deaths and not the confirmed covid death number that the countries publish.

5 hours ago, mommysboy said:

The article suggests there is in fact a great deal of immunity, and appears entirely in line with what one would expect.  Nothing is 100%.

Yes, and some scientists believe that certain people fight off the disease without producing antibodies. Then there is the issue of cross immunity based on other coronavirus infections. I think the likelihood of herd immunity from less than the conventional wisdom of 80% infection rates to be much more likely than people believe.

3 minutes ago, PerkinsCuthbert said:

I'm afraid it would have to be. Imagine the queues backing up if the IO had to flick through each passport to check each arrival, claiming to have come from a CV-19 free country where he/she has spent the previous 14 days.

Isn't the travel history in the computer they use based on passport number? Or is it just for the individual's history for that particular nation?

12 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

I agree, it's the end of all tourism as nobody will want to travel for a 14 day quarantine.

I can't imagine any businessmen doing it either.

I guess the trip to Siem Reap is off.

1 minute ago, natway09 said:

As to opening up to International arrivals I cannot see a way to do this for at least another 6 weeks, maybe 10 weeks depending on the rest of the worlds situation development in this time frame

And yet this is happening in Europe. An opening to most non high risk nations July 1.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tamarathiessen/2020/06/10/europe-travel-eu-welcomes-tourists-july-1-borders-reopen/#77f4c523fe66

8 hours ago, Cali farong said:

I haven’t seen anything mentioned about the$100,000 Covid 

insurance requirements.  Has that been canceled?

If the changes in Cambodia's requirements is a barometer, then expect the Thai requirements to become even more onerous.

1 hour ago, Yme said:

Expect when it comes it will be similar to what Cambodia announced Tuesday. Not particularly attractive, a bit of a gamble, and expensive.

 International travel in the age of COVID-19: Cambodia leads the world with user pays system

And at the same time, EU is looking to open to travelers from outside of Europe on July 1, only restricting people from high risk areas.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tamarathiessen/2020/06/10/europe-travel-eu-welcomes-tourists-july-1-borders-reopen/#77f4c523fe66

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3945599

Taiwan marks 59 days without new local coronavirus case

Only 5 patients still undergoing treatment for coronavirus after 431 released from hospital

and Taiwan at 16. Completely absurd.

6 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

There's been a conflict of interest declared in the study that prompted the initial comments on this from WHO as one of the Authors submitted this.

 

Conflict of interest: Prof Mary-Louise McLaws is a member of World Health Organization (WHO) Health Emergencies Program Experts Advisory Panel for Infection Prevention and Control (IPC) Preparedness, Readiness and Response to COVID-19 and WHO IPC Guidance Development Group for COVID-19. All other authors declare no competing interests.

 

Not saying that this affects it credibility but may have political reasons as to why they then did a flip flop?

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.10.20097543v2.full.pdf  (page 12)

 

So in the study that said asymptomatics had low transmission one of the authors has a conflict of interest?

24 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

 

Actually WHO has retracted that after much uproar from others in the scientific community.

 

Several studies show as much as 40% of cases being acquired from people who were asymptomatic, at least at the time.

 

How much risk asymptomatic children and teens pose is still unclear and subject of much controversy.

There are studies on both sides. I believe the difference is between asymptomatic people (not infectious) and presymptomatic (infectious, but not sure how much) people. I tend to give more credit to the more recent studies as the understanding is constantly changing. I have seen the link to the April 14 study you posted.

4 hours ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

Cambodia announced yesterday a number of strict rules and requirements to control foreign arrivals. 

 

https://www.khmertimeskh.com/50732293/cambodia-requires-foreigners-to-pay-for-covid-19-test-quarantine-treatment-services/

 

No one will risk travelling there at the moment as you'll be quarantined even if you test negative if you have travelled on the same flight as an infected person, and the costs will get expensive, of that have no doubts.

I just read the article about the costs involved. No one will travel there with those requirements. No visa bounces will be possible unless a travel bubble is set up.

"The letter said a foreigner must pay $5 for a single trip between airport and waiting center, $100 for a COVID-19 test, $30 a day for staying at a hotel or at a waiting center to wait for the test result, and $30  a day for three meals.

It added that if anyone of the passengers is tested positive for the COVID-19, the rest of the passengers in the same group will be quarantined for 14 days, and each of them will be required to pay 100 dollars for one test and 84 dollars a day for hotel or quarantine facility, meals, laundry and sanitary services, doctors and security service.

According to the letter, for COVID-19 positive patients, each of them will be required to pay 100 dollars for one test (maximum four tests) and 225 dollars a day for hospital room, medical treatment service, meals, and laundry and sanitary services.

It added that the cremation service charge for a dead body is $1,500.

For the issuance of a health certificate on COVID-19, a foreigner is required to pay 100 dollars for a lab test and 30 dollars for the certificate, the letter said."

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

Italy on the other hand has some news on herd immunity! More than half the residents of the Northern region of Bergamo have anitbodies. Bodes well for avoiding a second wave.

And when considering herd immunity some think that 50% or even lower (20+%) can yield it and not the 80% as is normally believed. Some even think that there is a coronavirus cross immunity which makes people who were infected and fight it off without developing specific antibodies.

11 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Indeed the time for being infectious is very  limited.

 

A study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association showed that symptomatic patients shed the virus for a median of 19 days, while patients with no symptoms shed the virus for a median of eight days.

 

So in other words asymptomatic people are not contagious during their whole life, only for a very, very limited period of time, on average 8 days.

 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2766237?utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_term=052720

 

 

And even with shedding you can shed and not be infectious. People may be shedding fragments or non viable virus. Singapore study found most people not infectious after 11 days. The ones after were immune compromised people such as cancer patients.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/most-covid-19-patients-not-infectious-after-11-days-study

1 hour ago, Sheryl said:

 

Indeed, it seems viral loads are highest just before symptoms appear.

 

This is an important issue. School closures, for example, are largely based on the assumption that asymptomatic children and youth can infect others.

 

 

Actually I found evidence conflicting here. One recent article said people with symptoms are the most infectious "While people without symptoms do seem to be capable of infecting others, current evidence still suggests people with symptoms are the highest risk. " https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52977940

Another agreed with the presymptomatic being the highest risk "And coronavirus patients are most infectious two to three days before symptoms begin, less so after the illness really hits." https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/29/health/coronavirus-transmission-dose.html

And then this one: "Presymptomatic individuals, who develop a higher viral load just before the onset of symptoms, maybe infectious", she added. https://www.biospectrumasia.com/news/30/16084/chances-of-sars-cov-2-carrier-not-showing-symptoms-is-very-low-says-who.html

So it's all over the place. Apologies for straying from Sweden.

24 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

 

Indeed, it seems viral loads are highest just before symptoms appear.

 

This is an important issue. School closures, for example, are largely based on the assumption that asymptomatic children and youth can infect others.

 

 

Many sources I have read say that school closures were unnecessary with covid since the children are not infectious and the reopening of schools in places which had them closed led to no spike in cases.

25 minutes ago, chessman said:

WHO are already walking this back.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/09/world/coronavirus-updates.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage#link-452d2061

 

 

wow farcical...