vermin on arrival

Yeah I was just told by China Airlines that I can't board my flight to Taiwan June 1 as non resident. Maybe in July....

7 minutes ago, kiwikeith said:

Do you think New Zealand will be listed as safe country as they have Covid almost completely eliminated 

 Oz too

12 minutes ago, akampa said:

wearing of masks does not prevent getting c19 . Hygiene is the way to go washing hands with soap etc. if you should get a cold when sneezing happens do it into a tissue or on your arm. just common sense . 

New research out of HK is saying otherwise : https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3084779/coronavirus-hamster-research-proof-effectiveness?fbclid=IwAR1P8Fmk6wdwoJ7EwIFghydpTM0DWTerhJOZ9GJeYGEpaVnVZyhxVvWOndc

Also very interesting new research...low risk to catch covid through touching surfaces, and it's not associated with eating. Primarily though respiratory droplets.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3938122

Coronavirus cannot spread easily by touching surfaces: US CDC

Virus now thought to spread mainly between people in close contact via respiratory droplets

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Many people have been worried about catching COVID-19 through touching contaminated surfaces; now they can breathe a sigh of relief, as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the U.S. in its updated guidelines has said that the virus does not spread easily in this way.

In March, a preliminary study suggested that the virus remains in the air for up to three hours and on surfaces such as plastic and stainless steel for up to three days, leading many people to disinfect their surroundings constantly.

However, according to Yahoo, the study was not yet peer-reviewed at that time.

Recently, the CDC in the U.S. changed its guidelines with regard to touching contaminated surfaces; the danger is now considered comparable to other low-risk transmission methods, including "from animals to people" and "from people to animals."

"It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes," the CDC guidelines now read. "This is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads, but we are still learning more...”

With regard to concerns about transmission of the disease through food, the guidelines point out, "Currently, there is no evidence to support transmission of COVID-19 associated with food.”

According to the guidelines, the coronavirus is thought to spread mainly between people in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet) "through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs, sneezes, or talks."

24 minutes ago, HerbyJFlash said:

That is not eating Thai style then . I’m an extremely cautious germaphobe and anti double dipping but when I’m in Thailand all bets are off.

 

This has surprised me though , I predicted the sharing of food in Thailand would lead to huge amount of cases.

My understanding is it doesn't spread through food. Feces yes and through droplets being breathed in are entering through the eyes, nose and the respiratory system.

interesting article from the economist. Originally projected ifr at .1 but in editor's note of April 26 revises it to .4 as in the study by the German Virologist Streeck. You need to register to read it: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/11/why-a-study-showing-that-covid-19-is-everywhere-is-good-news

59 minutes ago, tlock said:

Agreed- different situations seem to require different solutions.  It certainly appears that island nations (other than SK those all seem to be islands) are able to efficiently contain this virus.  

 

Hk is not an island. It's a coastal city attached to mainland but different administration.

2 minutes ago, Sujo said:

Because i follow the science and the nz, australian model, which has proven to work.

So have South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong which did not involve lockdowns. Seems there are many ways for things to work.

21 minutes ago, JensenZ said:

A re-infection is probably a mutation. These viruses mutate quickly. In 1918 the first influenza wave hit in January, and by July, a new, far more virulent strain appeared.

 

There has never been any vaccination for a coronavirus.

Or maybe bad testing. Most of these covid tests are highly inaccurate.

7 minutes ago, nauseus said:

What if herd immunity is not achievable with this novel virus? There is a big herd on this thread that assumes that herd immunity is a given, almost a human right, but this is not known for sure as yet. And even if there is some immunity, it may not be long-lasting. 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/americans-call-herd-immunity-sweden-experiment-coronavirus-not-working-2020-5 

"And scientists are still uncertain if a COVID-19 infection even leads to immunity".

Then we are pretty much doomed, especially when we don't know if a proper vaccine can be made despite some promising starts. However, if some kind of reasonable herd immunity doesn't develop with this illness it will be different than most similar diseases, at least according to Professor Hendrik Streeck of Germany.

Ban on incoming flights just extended until July 1. Still only Thai nationals will be allowed in. "Exceptions include, state or military aircraft, emergency landing, humanitarian aid, medical & relief flights, repatriation & cargo aircraft. " Don't know if it could be made to fit your dad. I think other options may be his best bet. I wish you good luck whatever you chose and hope for the best for your father and family.

9 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Seems to me that there is a dramatic divide between TVF posters. On one side those that believe everything the government tells us, think lockdown is a great idea and accept if the economy is destroyed as long as a proportionately small number of people don't die, and that masks actually work- they think Sweden is wrong by not doing what every other western country is doing. On the other side are those of us that think the government is confused about what to do and is making it up as it goes along, think lockdown is a terrible economy killing idea and do not think masks work with a virus- we think Sweden has got it right.

I dunno I think masks work, but requires 80-90% compliance indoors in public places and in close crowds outdoors. I think the lockdown could be a potentially effective short term remedy, 2months+ max, for societies that didn't have proper measures in place to give them breathing space to develop a coherent plan-although Oz and NZ did very well with it. However, others did not implement lockdowns and did a bang up job as well because they used masks and other measure very well. I do think many governments are confused and destroying the economy with their long term lockdowns, which could give both long epidemics and economic depression; surprisingly this is occurring in a number of the more advanced and developed societies. I think there are some benefits to what Sweden is doing, but it seems to be different to what other societies did that didn't use lockdowns and kept the virus in check, and I am not certain about it. I don't see a one size fits all solution.

3 hours ago, erinsf said:

Seems to me, you should also be looking at Taiwan or another country for treatment.  Nobody can enter Thailand unless they are Thai.  And, I imagine a banishment will not be overlooked. Drugs are taken very seriously here.  There is no legal 'right' to enter a country where you are not a citizen.  Do look at other countries.  Maybe Singapore too?  Malaysia has okay health care.  I would look at Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia.  

Taiwan still closed to non residents but may change June 1. Great NHS there so health care will be cheaper there even if not in the system.

2 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Please Google: Thaksin/drugs/extrajudicial killing

Yes, it was bad, but he did do it at someone else's request and that is all I will/can say on it.

18 minutes ago, dimitriv said:

 

It seems you do not believe that people cannot get infected in a complete lockdown?  I mean, really a complete lockdown...  It's impossible.

 

And where did you get that 60% ?  Till now all numbers that came from the US were unreliable, they used unreliable ways of testing, unreliable ways to choose people to test, unreliable tests giving a lot of false positives etc. I have no doubts the number you mention was made in a similar way. 

 

 

Yeah my homeland's response has been like watching a train wreck in slow motion. I'm ashamed in so many ways.

11 minutes ago, chessman said:

You are right, it's difficult. But I think it's almost impossible to attribute all those 'excess' deaths to people avoiding hospitals. Especially as some common killers (such as road accidents) are actually down due to lock downs.

I definitely wouldn't, but it could be a significant number with the unhealthiness of American society in general. The financial incentive for hospitals to skew the data up is also a really big/bad issue. Not saying that the result would be overall inflated numbers, but it really fudges the data through a kind of medical corruption.

8 minutes ago, chessman said:

Then you are burying your head in the sand.

 

remember - just because you disagree with the lockdown, that doesn’t automatically mean that people are inflating the deaths.

 

read this

 

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c

 

This one has a coherent argument rather than the conjecture from the newspaper link you provided.

 

Interesting article. You wonder what percentage is covid and what percentage is people hiding from hospital as so many are doing. I could see both possible results for my aged parents as they seclude themselves in NJ.

I think in the end they are going to have real problems figuring out the actual numbers of what happened.

20 minutes ago, Crazy Alex said:

Dr. Birx says the CDC is cooking the books, exaggerating deaths by up to 25%.

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/deborah-birx-cdc-comments-coronavirus-task-force-meeting-2020-5

 

Given the motives of money and sensationalism, deaths being underestimated does not seem likely.

interesting though in that business insider article none of the 4 forecasts agreed...birx said way too high, one said stable going at 2k, one said under counted and one model said it would go way up. There is no consensus, and it's like people are confused and just feeling their way around

2 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

A second great depression, huge increases in unemployment, major disruption to medical treatment, massive increase in public debt - for what benefit?

Yeah could only be conceivable with black death kind of fatality figures

3 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

Flattening the curve really means delaying immunity - and if immunity is short lived, this means many more secondary cases.

 

Yeah, I could see doing it in the beginning because people didn't know what they were dealing with and were worried about overwhelmed health services, and less knowledge of the illness, but the longer the flattening goes on means the longer the epidemic will go on, the less potential immunity is built up, and the worse the economic disaster. The only way it works is if you go beyond flattening to completely crushing and then remain isolated until treatments and vaccines are found. Otherwise a way must be found to open up with reasonable precautions sooner rather than later if possible. But it seems like the places being totally crushed now may still have to sustain flattening longer to get it under control before they open, no?

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

here's one of the studies the first article referneced, the one from oxford, with varying levels of cfr and ifr per nation. The cfr is always significantly higher because it doesn't include the people who were asymptomatic and didn't seek treatment. The first article is also from april 4 so maybe the data is not as accurate but the second one from Oxford has updates in it

and another estimate from that article

"The IHME prediction of ~93,000 deaths implies an IFR of 0.9%, close to the commonly estimated 1% CFR globally.  Note that IHME is really only projecting deaths based on real data, and therefore should not be faulted for choosing a conservative estimate of infection rate (~1%), especially given that the IFR is, at this point in time, a particularly slippery number."

2 hours ago, Guderian said:

Learn from the second wave we've already had in Thailand, starting at the muay Thai arena in Lumpini. Add in the latest experience of a cluster forming in nightclubs in Seoul. Hot, open-air places like beaches aren't the problem, confined and crowded venues most definitely are. Adopt, adapt and survive. 

The beach ban is truly ridiculous. As long as people aren't in a crowd together it would actually be beneficial with the vitamin d from the sun and the UV light killing the virus.