vermin on arrival

On 5/9/2020 at 9:17 AM, cmarshall said:

Not true.  SARS reproduction rate comparable to Covid-19:

 

R ₀ estimates for SARS have been reported to range between 2 and 5, which is within the range of the mean R₀ for COVID-19 found in this review. Due to similarities of both pathogen and region of exposure, this is expected. 

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7074654/

 

Of the 5 governments cited that have succeeded in containing Covid, which is S. Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Australia and New Zealand, only Hong Kong may be considered a communist country, and then only partially.  

 

Keep ignoring the facts and try to believe that the Western countries are somehow competent.  Meanwhile, be grateful that you live in Thailand.

Seems like a few western countries have done a good job. Norway and Greece are the first to spring to mind.

On 5/9/2020 at 7:52 AM, Laza 45 said:

If you look at the countries that have been most successful at containing the virus...Taiwan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and China and Thailand too....all these countries enforced stay at home, social distancing, wearing of masks, hygiene with sanitisers etc.. they have all reached a point now where they can now quickly identify new infections.. act quickly and prevent the spread.. They are all in a position to carefully open their economies again.. they are the winners in the race to 'open up'.. they will be the first to open their tourism industries.. the first to open trade between each other..  and they are now in a position to react quickly to any threat of a second wave..  ...the alternative?  ..look at the US total chaos.. and no end in sight..

Not true. Taiwan and South Korea never locked down. Some venues were shut like pubs. Taiwan tracked effectively, shut down travel from China early, and had huge amount of mask usage. South Korea tested out the wazoo and masks and quarantine of all entrants. Many different strategies used.

Could also be an infected hair follicle. I have had those. Easily treated with some anti bacterial cream like Fucidin, but check with a dermatologist. It could also be a wart, which can be cut off after using a painkiller cream or frozen off.

3 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

What you posted above is merely a longer version of the 1 paragraph excerpt I posted just prior. The basic message is the same -- the results on face coverings are too preliminary to reliably inform public policy.

 

Supposedly, the TV forum has a 3 sentence fair use limit on quoting things... So I've tried to keep my excerpting of the study's language short, in context, and to the authors' main points.

 

Apologies. I am tired. : )

2 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

A fair reading of the study's main finding regarding face mask wear is the following quoted excerpt:

 

 

Why we have 24 pages of arguing over the study's above-quoted main conclusion re face mask wear is beyond me...

I don't know the final conclusion on masks is very inconclusive

UNDECIDED 

Facemasks

Wearing facemasks in public was not associated with any independent additional impact. But the researchers say these results are too preliminary to reliably inform policy.

Dr Brainard said: 'The use of face coverings initially seems to have had a protective effect. However, after day 15 of the face covering advisories or requirements, we saw that the number of cases started to rise – with a similar pattern for the number of deaths.

'Face coverings may even be associated with increased risk, but the data quality for this is very uncertain.

'The results on face coverings are too preliminary to reliably inform policy, but what results are available do not support their widespread use in the community.

'Wearing face covering as an intervention certainly merits close monitoring,' she added.

13 minutes ago, Logosone said:

And lets not forget what the Central Epidemic Prevention Center in Taiwan advised:

 

"In early February 2020 the Executive Yuan adopted the recommendations of professors Huang Li-min (黃立民) and Chang Shang-chwen of the National Taiwan University Medical School, advocating that healthy people do not need to wear masks in open spaces. On 8 February, Chen Shih-chung, commander of the Central Epidemic Prevention Center, further stated that there was no need to wear a mask on public transportation."

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Taiwan

Realize that the person you quote here in Feb, was the same one who said the opposite on May 2nd.

6 minutes ago, Logosone said:

And lets not forget what the Central Epidemic Prevention Center in Taiwan advised:

 

"In early February 2020 the Executive Yuan adopted the recommendations of professors Huang Li-min (黃立民) and Chang Shang-chwen of the National Taiwan University Medical School, advocating that healthy people do not need to wear masks in open spaces. On 8 February, Chen Shih-chung, commander of the Central Epidemic Prevention Center, further stated that there was no need to wear a mask on public transportation."

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Taiwan

The article I sourced was their current thinking May4.

5 minutes ago, Logosone said:

And lets not forget what the Central Epidemic Prevention Center in Taiwan advised:

 

"In early February 2020 the Executive Yuan adopted the recommendations of professors Huang Li-min (黃立民) and Chang Shang-chwen of the National Taiwan University Medical School, advocating that healthy people do not need to wear masks in open spaces. On 8 February, Chen Shih-chung, commander of the Central Epidemic Prevention Center, further stated that there was no need to wear a mask on public transportation."

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Taiwan

Actually Heath Ministry said otherwise https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3927810

During the CECC's daily afternoon press conference on Saturday (May 2), Chang said that he received many questions from the public about why Taiwan was so successful in limiting the spread of coronavirus, including in hospitals. Chang said that it all boils down to the wearing of masks by both persons infected with the disease and healthy individuals.

Chang said if people infected with coronavirus wear a face mask, the number of droplets released through sneezing, coughing, exhaling, speaking, etc... is reduced by 70 to 80 percent. Likewise, if a healthy person wears a face mask, the amount of such droplets inhaled from carriers will also be reduced by 70 to 80 percent.

He then estimated that when both parties are wearing a mask, the chance of transmission drops down to just one or two percent. However, he conceded that there is not yet any scientific data to support his theory.

10 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Yes we do. I've stated that in my area few wear them, so compare to a country that does have a high % of mask wearing.

I'm not allowed to travel in NZ, so that justs for my area, but I expect it will be similar elsewhere.

Taiwan South Korea, and Hong Kong. No lockdown and extremely high mask usage. No school closures. Pandemic also defeated. Of course other things done as well.

I bought liquid D3 from Puritan's Pride in the US. I always wait for when they have sales and it becomes very cheap per 4 oz. bottle. I was sick like 4 times in one year for like 1 month each in 2017. I had them test me for vitamin deficiencies. I was found to be insufficient in D and one of the Bs. I started taking liquid vitamin d daily and have only been ill 1 time since then.

it's actually interesting they were saying US hospitals get 13k when they diagnose someone with covid and 39k if they put one on a ventilator (which probably kills them). This could definitely skew data. She also says in Italy the flu vaccines they gave people made them more susceptible to covid. She claims the CD and WHO are corrupt with government functionaries able to patent and make money off the treatments they create, which would make them denigrate cheaper currently available treatments. Interesting video. She doesn't seem like a crackpot, and she is clearly not anti-vaxx working in immune-therapy.

2 hours ago, jmccarty said:

The video is still on YT, but being deleted and re-upped by people fast.  It's an interview of one person that's allegedly a PHD that worked in many respective virology labs.  This would be easy to make and conspiracy theorists love this.  What do you think?  She did not make any long term money off of the work she did or was part of?  Keep your mind open, but not falling out of your ears!

new link please or title

9 hours ago, White Christmas13 said:

wrong, nobody in Australia wears a mask apart from Asian people

chech the infection and death tolls in Australia

The thing about the Asian societies which are big mask wearers from the start, Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong, they crushed covid with no lockdowns. Their economies are still rolling along. Food for thought. Of course, these were not their only policies, but no lockdowns.

12 minutes ago, jmccarty said:

The video has been removed from YT in any case.  She likely has reason to be against the establishment and was not anti-vax in it.  But very anti-establishment saying that the leaders and health officials are on the take, or gaining personally from the system.  Of course they are not volunteers!

well that was fast

51 minutes ago, Cryingdick said:

Nobody guiding the tour wore a mask either. I can't believe the childish comments. Now go put on your masks like your leader Prayuth orders you. 

"a small number of individuals directly interfacing with the president ... were tested for COVID-19 immediately prior to the event, received negative test results, and were permitted to not wear masks". They were all tested for covid immediately prior. I hope they are 100% accurate. Since few people have access to real time tests, setting an example for those people might be helpful. While they admit they don't have the scientific evidence needed Taiwan's health ministry believes if both people wear masks the chance of infection drops to 1 or 2%.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3927810

From the article "

Chang said if people infected with coronavirus wear a face mask, the number of droplets released through sneezing, coughing, exhaling, speaking, etc... is reduced by 70 to 80 percent. Likewise, if a healthy person wears a face mask, the amount of such droplets inhaled from carriers will also be reduced by 70 to 80 percent.

He then estimated that when both parties are wearing a mask, the chance of transmission drops down to just one or two percent. However, he conceded that there is not yet any scientific data to support his theory."

Here's another one about Korean Air reopening 19 air routes in June. Again Bangkok is not mentioned. This could be because of Thailand's entry ban and not covid cases as Frankfurt, Washington DC, and Singapore are in the expanded routes. Maybe this post might be considered off topic and is not relevant to covid cases.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3929712

1 hour ago, johng said:

Why the hell are they making people  line up and fill in bits of paper in crowded conditions..

surely all that is needed is to input Thai ID number and a bank account for the funds to be paid into  via an phone app or online..those from the 20 richest families  wouldn't claim the 5,000 baht per month ?

Thailand the land of excessive bureaucracy. Of course, there will also be the problem of false claims. It does seem nuts during a global pandemic even though there seems to be some effort to limit a possible outbreak.

I keep checking worldmeter and see no massive spike. I think there is some error in that other source. Looking at Spain's curve it would be more than 4 times the infections during Spain's peak of infection when the infections occured during the period 7-14 days before when most likely there was really no mitigation going on.

36 minutes ago, onekoolguy said:

Well there is 3 new cases today, only 1 of which was in country the other 2 were from guys in quarantine on reentry of the country. So 68 million people have to be treated like children and told every move to make? So what happens when regular flu season happens in a few months?

Makes no sense? 

With everyone wearing masks and using hand sanitizer I believe the numbers for that will be very light.

47 minutes ago, Sakeopete said:

I have been stuck in Angola since mid February. I know how you feel. Hoping everyone  makes it home soon. The Covid19 certificate and special insurance will make it very difficult for travelers. Hopefully the Thai government comes to their senses and removes them I am guessing the Chinese will be allowed in without them. 

My understanding from @ubonjoe was that with the closing of air travel those requirements are no longer in force. Of course, once they start things up again it is anyone's guess what the requirement will be. Mandatory 14 day quarantine makes sense.

3 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Here's an interesting graph of mobility changes (as per Apple / Google ) and the number of reported new infections:

 

 

Comes from asymco, asymco.com. Let's zoom in on Thailand:

 

 

The black line show the reduction in mobility due to lockdowns. The problem with that is, usually it takes about 2 weeks for the lockdown to start effecting the diagnosis count. Also it's pretty ragged. As can seen at the end (and this is a bit old already), it deviates from the fitted graph. That's either Thais starting to ignore the lockdowns, or a testing anomaly, or both. Given Thailand's very limited capability for testing, I'd sway towards testing problem.

 

That said, yes it has an effect as it should. If they want to open it up without bringing the R0 back to what it was, they have to start properly testing and tracing. It seems the problem is getting enough testing kits. If that is because the usurpers are too stingy to share their trough or they are hard to get in the current market is a good question.

Very interesting DrTuner. Let's hope it really gives us cause for some cautious optimism. Obviously the powers that be need to do more to make it have a continuing impact.

I checked worldmeter and they gave these stats:3,121 new cases and 244 new deaths in Spain. Maybe there was a decimal point mistake. The number of deaths match but there is a huge discrepancy in the new infections.