Cameroni

No, there's a huge difference, abortion is an ethical issue. Childless people deciding on policies is a practical issue . Everybody can opine on ethics, but policies that affect families should really be decided by people who have children.

For instance, these here: He's got unusual media command, and exceptional charisma. Of course, many hate him and he'll never be universally popular. But even his opponents, well those with intellectual honesty, will admit he has unusual charisma.

Look, of course Trump plays up the saviour narrative, I just saw him on an interview saying he'd like to believe God saved him from assassination to save America. He does this, not because he's a religious man, but because he knows he's big, very big, with evangelical christians and they do see things through a religious lense. Obviously his is a political movement and most of his supporters are not evangelical christians. I thought that was a very good article about his charisma though.

There is a distinct pattern if you watch Harris gaffes regularly on Youtube, she takes an inordinate amount of time to struggle for something to say, to "orient" herself as you say. Only for her to then to come up with over simplistic kindergarten speak. I'm not saying she's stupid, as a lawyer and DA, she's obviously above average smart, but when it comes to thinking on the fly, she's not the fastest car in the garage.

If you want enthusiasm...look for the prophet... https://theconversation.com/trumps-die-hard-support-may-be-explained-by-one-of-his-most-misunderstood-character-traits-charisma-236836

Lol, you do realise Nate Silver founded project five thirty eight?

When you can't argue with the content, a stammering, child like and clueless Kamala, attack the messenger. Classy.

Or it could lead to turnout complacency, as was the case with Clinton. The enthusiasm is not "lacking" in the Trump camp, it's just a little lower, 60% to 68%. But if we have a conversation after the debate and Trump comes up with some of his usual showman performances that will most likely change the figures dramatically. https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/09/03/harris-voters-enthusiasm-surpasses-trumps-in-major-turnaround-heres-why-that-matters/

A recent survey found that 12% of all voters thought abortion was the most important issue in the election. That correlates quite exactly with the 13% lead Harris has with women, which Clinton also had. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/07/health/abortion-elections-kff-survey/index.html So yes, like I said, no argument there, with abortion, Trump will not win any women over. But those people for whom abortion is a really important issue, they're not a very large number. Most voters care far more about other issues like the economy, where Harris in turn has embarassed herself badly. Her price fixing nonsense was universally ridiculed. Young black women, of course, they were always going to vote Democrat anyway. But they're again a small minority.

I had a St Etoile slice of white bread fried in butter with Canadian bacon, a fried egg and baked beans for breakfast.

So they can perfectly track people who use visa waiver 39 times in 14 years.

I think that had a lot to do with the Democrat media machine using everything from Charlie XCX and Gen Z vernacular to non-stop Harris reports on MSNBC, ABC, CBS, CNN etc. It was to a large degree manufactured by the media, but it also reflected the palpable relief that no-hoper Biden really was gone. However, Carville and others have already warned that this euphoria won't be very useful when Harris is faced with the cold hard reality of a very close race soon. Well, one can understand candidates doing everything they think will get them any votes. Trumps support for reasonable choice and IVF may get him some, but I think overall he'd be best served to underline that he's a red blooded male and appeal to male voters. Those for whom abortion is a real issue are quite unlikely to be voting Trump, just my opinion. I'm not convinced it's such a major issue in real numbers though.

Yes, indeed but I think both camps will be motivated to turn out to vote. The Democrats because they hate Trump so, due to abortion and the Trump supporters because they love Trump so, even more after the assasination attempt and because they despise the current administration with a passion. In terms of abortion, Trump's issue is that he's a New York billionaire, he's firmly pro choice, but he has to pretend he's pro-Life for his Christian and right wing base. We saw again how he changed his vote in Florida due to conservatives reigning him in. Indeed, Trump is aware that abortion can lose him votes, but if he's smart he'd realise that that ship has sailed, pro choice women will never vote for him, even if he professes he's pro choice for eternity.

What would be the evidence for the polls undecounting support for Harris? I think the opposite is much more likely, because most people are terrified to admit they'd vote for Trump. So polls are not very reliable with Trump's supporters, as evidenced by the fact that it was HIM who totally confounded pollster with Clinton, and again with Biden. Personally I think, since most voters would not admit to voting Trump, even when they fully intend to, we will see another surge for Trump on election day. Bear in mind that Kamala Harris already has the exact 13 point lead with women, which Clinton also had, but Trump is only ahead 5 with men, so there's a bit of room there. It could be that times have changed, in that polls are now more accurate, but pollsters themselves claim their polls are not the final word and that it's difficult to predict what will actually happen.

I'm really not upset about Kamala trying to pass herself off as a weed smoking Jamaican for street cred. I just don't appreciate the hypocrisy, plus I don't believe for a second she was a Rastafarian. It's all make believe, like her economic policies.

If an interviewer asks her a question she almost seems offended, lol. Takes 3 minutes to gather herself.

Yes, will be curious to see if Kamala will have deer in the headlights syndrome or not. She seems easily scared.

Yes, he's doing great in swing states. Florida too should be red. Trump's numbers are better than in any previous presidential race.

Totally agree, these young girls who specify 18 to 24, are not yet experienced, once they are loved and left and realise their girlfriends with older boyfriends are doing much better financially, they change strategy and allow older guys in. Often, after they're again not wifed up, they'll then settle for a local guy.

I have to say I feel extremely good about Trump's chances to win. MSNBC's Steve Kornacki shows Trump behind only 3 points, but at the same time, Labor day, against Clinton he was down 5 points and won, and against Biden he was down 9 and made it extremely close. https://www.msnbc.com/katy-tur/watch/kornacki-harris-is-up-3-points-against-trump-nationally-218525765638 With only 3 behind on Labor day, this race is Trump's to lose. He just needs fracking country Pennsylvania and he's as good as in.

None of that matters, alas, what matters is the emotional bond between Trump and the forgotten worker. He believes Trump will act in his best interest, not Harris. That's all that matters.

Do you think it could be possible to stay a year or two in Thailand on visa waivers alone?

I'd say it's a toss up between Vietnam and Malaysia for second place. Yes, religion in Malaysia is a problem, for example when the massage girls refuse to massage you naked but insist you wear shorts, but on the whole the restaurants, bakeries, malls are the closest to SG and Thailand. Vietnam has some great places and great food, but the unfriendliness of the locals would be an issue for me. Philippines is indeed a non-starter, poor internet, terrible airports, typhoons and earthquakes on tap, and rip offs and violence, plus rampant poverty and crime are an issue. Bali in Indonesia is quite appealing though.

Even in Thailand that is now usually the case, absolutely.

Absolutely, it would have been a disaster for shops and supermarkets, since groceries are already penny profit margins. Thankfully, it looks like Trump is on course to win the swing states so we won't have to find out.