Yes the formation could break down. There's never anything sure. However, the rates and consequently the dollar have risen sharply. since the election so it points to continuation. If the cup and handle does form it would be a very bad sign. Especially for the government. There is talk of the fed raising rates.
Powell reiterated that the path of rate cuts is not pre-set, will depend on data, going slower if the data allows seems like ‘the smart thing to do’
The rising dollar would make imports cheaper and consequently domestic stuff relatively more expensive. Tariffs would make imports more expensive, also pushing inflation.