The ME right now reminds me a little of the Balkans before WW1. That doesn't mean things have to go down like they did in 1914, but it is a splintered, feuding and instable region with numerous small countries and fiefdoms. Outside major powers are circling and vying for advantage, all with any number of official and especially unofficial alliances and clan treaties. Even the regional religion is split into two hostile factions.
It is a bit of a tinderbox indeed.