MikeyIdea

1 hour ago, steelepulse said:

 

A flu has an IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) adjusted to take into account asymptomatic people of .04%   Various studies around the world put covid IFR at between .12% and 1%  With those numbers, there won't be doubling every 4 days and in fact, everyone would get herd immunity.

 

Partial herd immunity will be reached but there is no scientific evidence supporting that full herd immunity will be reached at this stage. Early small investigations show that younger people develop low levels of anti bodies which may not lead to immunity. A vaccine, when it comes, will be effective. 

We'll have to wait for evidence on this one

8 hours ago, steelepulse said:

Haha, he does do good keto vids for those needing to lose weight.

 

However, his stats look like these stats, in that the number of deaths is falling, just as he showed in the video.  Look at the number of deaths in the last 5 days and it definitely is falling, and falling pretty quickly.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105753/cumulative-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden/

Sweden's numbers are always fluctuating more than in many other countries because they include many (but not all) deaths outside hospitals too and those are only reported on weekdays and are adjusted afterwards more often. It was up to 107 again yesterday. 

Numbers are starting to look less bad because of a rather embarrassing reason by the way:

Sweden until recently had the policy that health care workers outside of hospitals didn't need any extra protective equipment at all. They still have the policy to not send sick elderly to hospital to protect the famous curve, they increase care at home instead. A sick elderly can be cared for by up to 10 different people in a day in Sweden. 

Now, this caused elderly being cared for at home to die like flies, obviously. The carers are now wearing masks (not N95's) and deaths are starting to drop a bit. 

Sweden's mortality rate per 100,000 inhabitants compared to its neighbours is very bad, take demographics like population density into consideration and it is appalling. Go to worldometer and sort by deaths by 100,000 and Sweden is the eleventh worst country in the world. Take away the very very small entries like San Marino and Sint Maarten which aren't "real countries" and Sweden is the seventh worst country. 

I went on a skiing holiday to Sweden in March and I am stuck here. I wish I weren't. This is not my idea of a safe place. 

Thai airways only accept bookings to Sweden from October, they accept 1 July to London Heathrow 

The main point may not be asymptomatic transmission, masks and lock down or not. Early, small investigations indicate that young people only produce low levels of antibodies which may not produce immunity and older people produce more antibodies than younger. We have no idea how long immunity will last either at this stage. 

I got a nasty virus called Cytomegalo once, was really sick and lost 10 kilos of weight. The antibody test I took showed that I had already had it but antibody levels were so low that I could get reinfected.

We can't assume, we'll have to wait for scientific evidence. Its just smart to protect ourselves until we know

6 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

How do you explain that the town where I live has very few people wearing masks, but has ZERO cases of Corona?

If one lives in New York it's probably a good idea to wear a mask in public, but in a small country town with no cases they are obviously not needed. The response should be tailored to the situation, as one size does not fit all.

How can I explain if you don't give me the demographics and name of the city? 

34 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

Possibly, yes, so you don't think there may be a link between virus and air pollution 

I went on a skiing holiday to Sweden in March and got stuck when Corona exploded, can't get back. Its nice and clean but clearly more unsafe compared to dirty Bangkok. The statistics I see show no link between air quality and virus, rather the opposite. Dirty cities in Asia show low to very low virus infections per 100,000 inhabitants while clean Swedish (and other European) cities show much higher infection rates, despite much lower population density. 

I think it's down to usage of masks (mainly to limit spread rather than protecting yourself), stricter social distancing measures and possibly that the virus is less efficient at higher temperatures. 

11 hours ago, mauGR1 said:

It confirms that there might be a strong link between covid and pollution

It would rather confirm that resuming flights between Stockholm, the epicentre in Sweden, and gothenburg was a bad idea. 

1 hour ago, nauseus said:

You asked the question. I gave you my estimate for 10 years hence. Now you quote EU stats for 2016.  

OK, so I misunderstood you, sorry for that. The EU stats I quoted were the latest ones I could find on the official EU website. 

9 hours ago, nauseus said:

10%... yes...it will matter. 

My bad, 12.4% of world trade, 17% of world exports

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/DDN-20170824-1?inheritRedirect=true

Restrictions will most likely be eased selectively. Low risk countries will be allowed in first while Europe and America will continue to be banned until the risk is reduced to an acceptable level. 

China and South Korea will probably open 1 June, possibly a bit earlier than that but I doubt it. Chinese tourists are ready to go and some do also in June. The European tourist season starts in July, there's risk but little benefit to open up before that. My guess is that they open 1 july but who knows, it could be August or even later too, it all depends on the situation in Europe. 

Thai Airways accept bookings to London from 1 july but have cancelled all flights to Sweden until October. 

I don't know, no one knows ????

The Chinese government knows that other countries will have a different view. That is not that important to them. What's important is the internal view, the purpose is internal. They do the same with the Taiwan issue. Ask any Chinese and they will all say exactly the same thing: Everybody knows that Taiwan belongs to China. 

China had 4% of world trade during Sars, they have 16% or so today, what will they have in 10 years time? 20 %? 

20%... It will matter. 

You already have custody as you've been court, the trick is to enforce it. I'd advise you to PM HappyLarry, his wife is an interpretor working with a lawyer with a great track record in family law. I've followed a couple of his cases and I'm impressed. They're in Korat so not too far. 

Ordinary Chinese, today, accept that the virus came from China, i.e., originated in China. They even feel a bit bad about it. They also accept that they spread it and they can even accept if you casually call it the Wuhan virus. They don't, however, feel they are responsible for all the deaths it has caused outside China. That they put down to weak foreign action. 

The problem is that the Chinese government is controlling what is published in relation to Corona in China and e.g., the bad initial management is already edited out. 1.5 billion Chinese will see things very differently in 10 years time.

The Chinese Spring festival (the Chinese New Year) is coming up. 400 million people will travel home to their parents during this period. The Chinese government cannot stop this from happening. 

This situation could look very different in 2 weeks time (in China anyway)

Hi All,

I got my new passport as the old one is about to expire and I now need to get my permanent residency details updated with the new passport. Which section at TM Cheang Wattana should I go to and which papers / forms do I need to bring? 

I also need a triple re-entry, can someone paste in a link to a good thread about that

Admin, please delete my post in the Visas and migration to other countries forum, sorry, didn't see that I was in the wrong sub-forum when I posted that

Best Regards

Michael

12 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

Off topic posts and 2 party flamefest deleted.

Please stay on topic and keep it civil.

Sent from my SM-J701F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

Thanks Sheryl

1 hour ago, neeray said:

Sounds like something is sure needed to level her out.

I think it's time for professional help.

Level out absolutely, Yes, but I don't believe in professional help, it quite often makes things worse also in the west and especially in this part of the world. What is needed is probably just the crude awakening that consequence is near. The OP need to figure out how to deliver that message for best effect

1 hour ago, tekashicanada said:

Thank you guys for the insights.

 

So a little update. Yesterday was really bad: she came home late after doing her hair and she saw that the place was a bit messy as I had come back home from my workouts and stuff and she freaked out. Obviously, I was also very tired and reciprocated the shouting and stuff. She then proceeded to start shouting and throwing some tantrums. She even took my hand and wanted to hit herself with it (which I am stronger so was able to refrain).

 

She eventually fell asleep and the next morning, she said: I love you and said sorry as she was tired yesterday. Is this bipolarism or BPD?

Why should it be any of that? This is not unusual at all, some cases do come from underlaying mental problems that can be diagnosed but the very vast majority of them don't at all. It's just a combination of 2 things where the westerner coming to Thailand marring a local is partially responsible for one of them.

Now the ThaiVisa mob that so commonly and loudly speak their opinion without knowing what they talk about will wake up but they mean nothing to me: I like the Thai saying that the Thai's that they look down on have for them: Those who don't know speak easily ????

Self-control: Westerners have a higher level of self control, even our precious Christmas presents serve to teach self control, our culture is full of things that develop self control. Thai's have little of it in their culture except respect for Pii and loss of face so I bet what is happening to you only happen when you are alone and you are obviously not Pii. SOME people do not make an effort to control themselves when they think they don't have to. Especially women in this country can sometimes start to show this behaviour after marriage.
You: You should ask yourself - Why does this happen to me but not to Thai husbands? What am I as a guest in this country doing wrong. What am I obviously not knowing what and how should I do things a better way?

The solution to this probably starts with you, unless your wife really is "so far gone" that you think she would be diagnosed as mentally troubled. That is not easy to get and should not be easy either

It's amazing how these bipolar cases suddenly can improve themselves when they have to.

What do you think you should do to stop this? Violence and force doesn't have to be the solution at all

On ‎12‎/‎1‎/‎2018 at 9:26 AM, tekashicanada said:

Thank you again for your answers.

 

Just a little update. She is still pretty moody when I get home but it seems like during the night she cuddles up and the next day it is like nothing happens. She even kisses me before going to work.

 

There might also be some communication problem as her English is not the best.

 

80% of the consensus here says to run. 

 

I am a decent guy and owe it to marriage to give it a chance however can't have the risk of her just grabbing sharp tools out of nowhere. I confronted her about that and she said: it was just a quick reaction because you said you also had the feeling of dying because of me. Are there professionals I can contact?

 

Anyways, thank you all for the replies.

80% of the consensus here says to run but most of them, not all but most, are also either the arrogant self-obsessed type or the type who write whatever for a good laugh at the expense of others.

I'll tell you a quick story from the mid-90s

An Australian guy I didn't know very well working for The Nation was "going crazy", well, being pushed to the limit by his girl friend, university educated and worked in an office, jealous, not trying to control her temper, spending money when told not to. He had tried to talk without getting anywhere until he was ready to give up and asked me for advice.

I answered that it is useless to talk to someone who doesn't want to listen, that will put the non-listening person in a power position every time. Just ignore instead but you must ignore just enough / pay attention just enough so that she doesn't have a reason to challenge you and become aggressive, then the power moves over to her again and you must become defensive. This didn't go on for that long and things changed in that relationship

It turned out that the girl was very childish and nothing much more, I haven't met them for 20 years and have no idea if they're still together but they lived happily for a few years after he had cleared up that first problem, helped her to grow up

Then a similar thing happened to a Thai friend at work and his Thai girl friend only a few years later. She tested him too much and he decided to break off. Then I have heard it several times after that, mainly in Thai - Thai relationships, more often with girls with not that much experience, say inexperienced and a bit childish

Any chance?

Hi,

I have a PR, my passport is close to expiring so I've asked for a new one and it has just arrived at the embassy. Is there anything I need to do in regards to the PR before I fetch the new passport = let them punch a hole in my old passport. I do not have a re-entry permit in the old passport. Don't want to mess up and invalidate my PR ????

Michael

4 hours ago, Fex Bluse said:

Not sure what you think is racist about the post. The point of the post is to call attention to differences in cultural and national generalized characteristics. We humans are not all the same as much as the PC Brigades want to convince us to downplay differences. Both Farang and Thai (and everyone else) have both good and bad national characteristics that are common among the populations. 

 

And, you can't simultaneously be two polar opposite things. In my view, it's not possible to be Thai and Farang simultaneously. You have to pick one as there are too many conflicting cultural tenets.

Good post, you're right that we can't be two polar opposites but I don't think that we have to pick to be Thai or western as there are too many conflicting tenets. It's all up to core values. It's possible to be very western in terms of one core value and very Thai (Asian) in another. It's just a natural selection that we shouldn't deliberately choose, it should come naturally.  

11 hours ago, Fex Bluse said:

@MikeyIdea,

Referring to your post at the end of this, I have a few replies. 

 

First, some profile info, since you seem to think it matters. I've been in Thailand for more than 3 decades. I've owned and run professional consulting firms, have met Thai elites and diplomats and know a good number of the older Thai industry heads (who are still alive). I am married to a wealthy Thai lady from a well to do family of professionals and politicians. I speak Thai reasonably well and can read and write (somewhat) as well. 

Thanks for your reply and your openness. So we both have an understanding of why Thai's do and act the way they do, that's the important thing here because, as you saw from my previous post, I look down on people who voice their opinion without knowing. A good example is Christian missionaries, they went over to a foreign culture to "enlighten" people without even bothering to find out that these people already had a more supporting religion in place, that is just sad and shows a total lack of understanding.

11 hours ago, Fex Bluse said:

Friendliness vs Politeness 

On Thai friendliness vs politeness - I have been invited to and attended plenty of events like those you refer to, but I maintain Thais, in the main, are more polite than friendly.

 

Polite is doing something that you think is expected of you, like when Thais are exceedingly polite to other Thais who they regard as being more important than them. 

 

Friendly is something like being exceedingly polite to someone, say a farang, that they do not regard as being more important than them. 

Overall I agree, do note though, that rich people generally are more selfish, more polite but less friendly than the middle class who in turn are more selfish, more polite but less friendly than the poor

11 hours ago, Fex Bluse said:

And I guarantee almost ZERO faravg have ever been offered a seat on the metro or shown deference as a similarly dressed/moneied Thai. 

I have been offered seats. It was of course more common that Thai's stood up and offered their seat to my young daughter who of course didn't need it than offering it to the elderly farang. That is respect and politeness in this culture and no alien has the right to come to Thailand and look down on that. Not aimed at you but just as an overall comment reflecting my personal opinion: Respect the difference please, look down on it and please leave

11 hours ago, Fex Bluse said:

Assimilating to Thai culture

I made a go of it in my early years, but I quickly found that the more I tried to be like and accept Thais, the more I had to surrender my own culture, morality, ethics, logic, objective fact, ect. All cultures are not equal in all ways, and there are marked differences in Thai culture and many other cultures, especially many farang cultures, that don't mix. 

 

So, I had to ask myself questions like

 

"is being more Thai and more accepted by them worth me surrendering all my commonsense?" 

 

"is it worth me being willing to break any laws or hurting people without second though because I know there are few consequences?" 

 

"is it worth me developing a myopic view of the world in which I care exclusively about my family and close friends but about nobody else?" 

 

"is it worth me surrendering all intellectual curiosity?" 

 

"is it worth me placing FACE preservation or building above truth?" 

Common sense is of course not the same in different cultures, common sense just like logic stems from core values. You are referring to surrendering your common sense based on your farang core values. We should all follow our core values and respect that others have different core values

- break any laws or hurting people without second though because I know there are few consequences

The richer Thai's are, the more they intentionally do this, the poorer they are, the less they do it. The poor still end up in situations where they do it because they don't think and plan ahead but at least they feel bad when they do. Similar to the west but much much more distinct here.

- "is it worth me developing a myopic view of the world in which I care exclusively about my family and close friends but about nobody else?" 

I don't know if rich Thai's do this but IMO, the middle class and the poor don't

- "is it worth me surrendering all intellectual curiosity?"

I don't see that the working middle class in Thailand surrender any intellectual curiosity, I had a great discussion about the War of the Roses with a Thai colleague a while back. She had good understanding of the underlying causes of the conflict and I could not but think that I cannot match this insight when it comes to Thai matters. The poor do both in the west and the east. I doubt the rich here do. Overall, the definition of intellectual curiosity of course includes Thai matters and the ability to see things from a Thai perspective if one decide to live in Thailand. We'll have to agree to disagree on this one

- "is it worth me placing FACE preservation or building above truth?" 

Don't understand what you mean here. If this is about the importance of keeping face in Asia, then yes, 4 billion Asians think that is more important than westerners do

11 hours ago, Fex Bluse said:

Conclusion 

When does a respecting farang decide that to aspire to be something that so conflicts with his own culture and morality and ethics and intellect is disgusting? 

Ehhh, why on earth should anyone aspire to become something that is against their core values? We should follow our core values and respect others.

Michael