A new survey by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute has found that a majority of Southeast Asian respondents would choose China over the United States as a strategic partner, signalling a shift in regional sentiment. The poll showed 52% favouring China compared with 48% for the US, reversing last year’s results when Washington held a narrow lead. The findings highlight changing perceptions amid evolving geopolitical and economic conditions.
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The survey, conducted between January 5 and February 20, gathered responses from 2,008 participants across 11 Southeast Asian countries, including individuals from the private sector, research institutions and policymaking circles. Support for China was strongest in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore, while the US remained the preferred partner in the Philippines, Myanmar and Vietnam. The polling period began shortly after US President Donald Trump authorised the capture of Venezuela’s former leader, Nicolas Maduro and announced that Washington would indefinitely control the sale of the country’s oil.
Analysts said the shift reflects China’s growing economic influence in the region and declining confidence in US leadership. They cited geopolitical uncertainty and trade tensions under the Trump administration, including the introduction of tariffs, as key factors influencing sentiment. Respondents also identified US leadership as their top concern, followed by global scam operations and aggressive behaviour in the South China Sea.
Despite the reversal, experts cautioned against interpreting the results as a decisive strategic shift towards Beijing. Ng Chee Khern, director of the institute, said the narrow margin should not be seen as a “wholesale strategic pivot”. Scot Marciel, a former US diplomat and senior adviser at BowerGroupAsia, noted that while US policies may discourage cooperation, this does not automatically translate into greater alignment with China.
Wang Zichen, deputy secretary general of the Centre for China and Globalisation, said the findings suggest Southeast Asia is increasingly aware of its economic interdependence with China. He added that the results indicate China is no longer at a disadvantage when the region is forced into a binary choice. Analysts also pointed out that countries may diversify partnerships, strengthening ties with Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and Europe rather than choosing a single superpower.
The Nation reported that observers expect Southeast Asian nations to continue balancing relationships between major powers while responding to shifting economic and geopolitical dynamics. Ongoing trade negotiations with the US and deepening economic links with China are likely to shape future regional alignments. The survey, now in its eighth edition, underscores the complexity of ASEAN’s strategic positioning in an increasingly uncertain global environment.
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Adapted by ASEAN Now Nation 9 Apr 2026
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