Stop fighting over Brexit and get real, Jim O'Neill tells UK

[nauseus]

Just now, ilostmypassword said:

Not against the Euro

 

Quoting facts are you? Like the pound has been in decline since 2010? Not against the dollar or the euro.

Well make your mind up! 

 

Oh, The grand old Duke of York,
He had ten thousand men;
He marched them up to the top of the hill,
And he marched them down again.

 

Now when you're up, you're up,
And when you're down, you're down,
And when you're only half-way up,
You're neither up nor down.

[Khun Han]

3 hours ago, nauseus said:

Yes, then 1.10 now 1.11. Salient enough?

 

It was down below 1.08 when we were in Spain a couple of weeks ago, so the improvement is quite significant. But I don't expect it to get anywhere near the artificially high pre-referendum levels

[Khun Han]

2 hours ago, chrissables said:

I am quoting facts, you are not. Confidence is relative to what business you are in. I will presume you are not running a business.

 

She's looking after horses in Phuket.

[citybiker]

Oh wonderful, yet another preaching to UK about Brexit.

As if the UK don't get enough negativity from the EU already.


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[3NUMBAS]

junckers latest words point to more joiners from the piss poor part of east europe looking for german prosperity paid for by the brits who are unfortunately leaving the party just in time..all of whom will need to move over to the euro currency which is not for brits

[citybiker]

junckers latest words point to more joiners from the piss poor part of east europe looking for german prosperity paid for by the brits who are unfortunately leaving the party just in time..all of whom will need to move over to the euro currency which is not for brits

A fair analysis of Junker.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/13/jean-claude-juncker-cant-seriously-regret-brexit-has-freed-eu/

The EU craves on authority & power, and despises anyone who fails to follow the EU ideology and even more so to challenge it.

Let him have his hot air annual address, however a unified & harmonious EU it certainly is not.


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[Khun Han]

12 minutes ago, 3NUMBAS said:

junckers latest words point to more joiners from the piss poor part of east europe looking for german prosperity paid for by the brits who are unfortunately leaving the party just in time..all of whom will need to move over to the euro currency which is not for brits

 

He headlines his speech with 'reform' but details it with more of the same old same old. Yet more doublespeak from him: the language of the politically abhorrent.

[Laughing Gravy]

17 hours ago, onthesoi said:

 

And yet, with all this supposed confidence in the UK economy you cant explain why the pound is still shitting the bed against every other currency.

 

It doesn't matter what tall tales are spun by brexiteers about the health of the UK economy, its only the international currency markets which matter.

 

 

It is much better to be in work than out of work. Oh dear George Osborne and the other doom mongers were talking out of their A holes.

 

"Britain is on course to have the highest employment rate in the western world after a hiring spree that defied warnings of a Brexit slowdown.

Employment surged to a record of 75.3 per cent of the working-age population as 379,000 more jobs were created in the year to July, the Office for National Statistics said. Among the advanced economies only Japan experienced faster improvement over the past 12 months.

Mining, utility companies, the IT and communications sector and the hotel and restaurant trade reported the biggest increases in employment. Nearly 70 per cent of the new jobs went to women, and only 8 per cent were part-time. "

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/employment-figures-britain-races-towards-top-after-record-job-numbers-revealed-7r02kndr6

[ilostmypassword]

10 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

It was down below 1.08 when we were in Spain a couple of weeks ago, so the improvement is quite significant. But I don't expect it to get anywhere near the artificially high pre-referendum levels

Artificial? How exactly do "artificial" exchange rates come about? And in this case, how could they have lasted so long?

[nauseus]

19 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

Artificial? How exactly do "artificial" exchange rates come about? And in this case, how could they have lasted so long?

Because the Euro was depressed from mid 2014 due to deflationary pressure, which was largely avoided by Sterling during that period. The ECB stepped up its monthly asset purchases to a monthly total of EUR 80bn and they are still ongoing. Less deflationary pressure now but all this QE will come at a cost further down the track.

[ilostmypassword]

6 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Because the Euro was depressed from mid 2014 due to deflationary pressure, which was largely avoided by Sterling during that period. The ECB stepped up its monthly asset purchases to a monthly total of EUR 80bn and they are still ongoing. Less deflationary pressure now but all this QE will come at a cost further down the track.

You've got it backwards. When the economy of a country A has more inflation than country (or currency area) B that actually tends to depress the value of the currency. Japan had years of deflation or slowflation which actually kept its currency at a higher rate of exchange in relation to other countries. The whole point of PM Abe's trying to promote inflation was to decrease the value of Japan's currency.  So the UK's higher inflation rate would actually have worked against the pound's increase in value. In addition the pound held held reasonably steady against the dollar for most of that time despite America's quicker recovery from recession (thank you obama).

[nauseus]

29 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

You've got it backwards. When the economy of a country A has more inflation than country (or currency area) B that actually tends to depress the value of the currency. Japan had years of deflation or slowflation which actually kept its currency at a higher rate of exchange in relation to other countries. The whole point of PM Abe's trying to promote inflation was to decrease the value of Japan's currency.  So the UK's higher inflation rate would actually have worked against the pound's increase in value. In addition the pound held held reasonably steady against the dollar for most of that time despite America's quicker recovery from recession (thank you obama).

You asked a question. I told you what happened in reality not according to your theory. There was negligible inflation in the UK for that period.  

[onthesoi]

15 hours ago, chrissables said:

I am not pretending anything. The fact is the pound has been in decline since 2010. 

Assuming you know how to read a chart, see below for absolute proof you're making stuff up again, left hand side of chart is Jan  2010, right hand side is today:

 

The pound was steadily climbing to the big peak in 2015 until brexit reared its ugly head then started plunging.

 

The steepest cliff on the right hand side of the peak occurred at the exact moment the referendum result was announced.

 

nauseus claims the pound has recovered but the chart doesn't lie....

 

As I said before, Brexiteers struggle with basic numeracy...

Edited September 14, 2017 by onthesoi

[onthesoi]

There is no slope to the drop in the pound its a vertical cliff which starts the same day the referendum result was known:

 

[ilostmypassword]

37 minutes ago, nauseus said:

You asked a question. I told you what happened in reality not according to your theory. There was negligible inflation in the UK for that period.  

The last time you claimed that the British Pound had increased in value artificially because the UK had higher inflation. Now you're saying that the UK had "negligible inflation." Which is it?

Actually, that's not even true about UK inflation. The UK inflation rate over that period went as high as five percent. It persistently outpaced inflation in the Eurozone.

As for it being my "theory" about higher inflation being a factor in devaluation of a currency it's one I share with virtually every economist left right and center. Remember the hyperinflation in Germany of the early 20's. By your logic, that must have increased the value of the Deutschmark astronomically.

 

[Khun Han]

3 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

Artificial? How exactly do "artificial" exchange rates come about? And in this case, how could they have lasted so long?

 

There are several good analyses of this available on the web, probably the best one by the IMF. It's on their website if you want to read it.

[chrissables]

3 hours ago, onthesoi said:

There is no slope to the drop in the pound its a vertical cliff which starts the same day the referendum result was known:

 

March 2010 it was as low as it it is now.

 

The markets reacted to the unknown and due to all the threats the EU mutters to try and derail the exit. 

 

As i previously posted there are many positive things happening too.

 

Please do try not to be too condescending, i know it is way of some people, but you are making yourself look a right <deleted>, as us Brixeters would say.

 

 

[ilostmypassword]

2 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

There are several good analyses of this available on the web, probably the best one by the IMF. It's on their website if you want to read it.

I'm guessing you're referring to QE which is a good point. One of the effects of QE, in theory at least, is to lower the value of a currency. The thing is that only works against Nauseus' argument. That's because QE was instituted in the UK in 2009. The EU didn't start QE until 2015.  

Probably the real reason for the decline of the Euro against the pound was the fact that the Eurozone stuck to a very strict austerity program until 2015. Whereas the UK despite making noises about austerity and balancing the budget, actually quickly backed off.So traders believed, and rightly so, that the UK economy would outperform the Eurozoner.

[nauseus]

5 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

The last time you claimed that the British Pound had increased in value artificially because the UK had higher inflation. Now you're saying that the UK had "negligible inflation." Which is it?

Actually, that's not even true about UK inflation. The UK inflation rate over that period went as high as five percent. It persistently outpaced inflation in the Eurozone.

As for it being my "theory" about higher inflation being a factor in devaluation of a currency it's one I share with virtually every economist left right and center. Remember the hyperinflation in Germany of the early 20's. By your logic, that must have increased the value of the Deutschmark astronomically.

 

You should learn to read - I didn't say the word artificial! No 5% inflation through the period 2014-2016. What are you quoting DM for?? GBP USD 1.33 now so go figure that out. 

[nauseus]

6 hours ago, onthesoi said:

Assuming you know how to read a chart, see below for absolute proof you're making stuff up again, left hand side of chart is Jan  2010, right hand side is today:

 

The pound was steadily climbing to the big peak in 2015 until brexit reared its ugly head then started plunging.

 

The steepest cliff on the right hand side of the peak occurred at the exact moment the referendum result was announced.

 

nauseus claims the pound has recovered but the chart doesn't lie....

 

As I said before, Brexiteers struggle with basic numeracy...

I did not use the word recover - you did. Stop remoaning.

[onthesoi]

4 minutes ago, nauseus said:

I did not use the word recover - you did.

 

I'm glad we agree the pound has not recovered since Brexit.

 

I knew you would come round to the facts in the end.

[nauseus]

2 minutes ago, onthesoi said:

 

I'm glad we agree the pound has not recovered since Brexit.

 

I knew you would come round to the facts in the end.

I did not use the word recover - you did. Stop remoaning. You all sound suspiciously like the Straw Man.

[onthesoi]

2 hours ago, chrissables said:

March 2010 it was as low as it it is now.

 

Then the pound spent 5 years climbing until Brexit appeared on the horizon then it fell off a cliff into the abyss,

 

...but what was it you actually said again:

 

21 hours ago, chrissables said:

 The fact is the pound has been in decline since 2010. 

 

And:

 

21 hours ago, chrissables said:

I said the pound has been in decline since 2010. Am i wrong?

 

Then I showed you absolute proof that you were indeed wrong.

 

 

 

 

 

[onthesoi]

15 minutes ago, nauseus said:

I did not use the word recover - you did. Stop remoaning. You all sound suspiciously like the Straw Man.

 

Lets clear this up..

 

Has the pound recovered from brexit or not?.

[chrissables]

1 hour ago, onthesoi said:

 

I'm glad we agree the pound has not recovered since Brexit.

 

I knew you would come round to the facts in the end.

?????? Brexit has not happened yet!

[nauseus]

2 hours ago, onthesoi said:

 

Lets clear this up..

 

Has the pound recovered from brexit or not?.

Hey Goalpost, that's the first time you asked that one!

[ilostmypassword]

10 hours ago, nauseus said:

You should learn to read - I didn't say the word artificial! No 5% inflation through the period 2014-2016. What are you quoting DM for?? GBP USD 1.33 now so go figure that out. 

Here's what you wrote

"Because the Euro was depressed from mid 2014 due to deflationary pressure, which was largely avoided by Sterling during that period. The ECB stepped up its monthly asset purchases to a monthly total of EUR 80bn and they are still ongoing. Less deflationary pressure now but all this QE will come at a cost further down the track."

 

And it's nonsense. Currencies don't get depressed because of "deflationary pressure." It's actually the opposite. Deflation means the purchasing power of an individual unit of currency increases. Which means the currency tends to becomes more valuable in relation to other currencies , not less. But if you can prove otherwise, you'll be known as the Einstein of economics.

 

I cited the Deutschmark of the 1920s to show how inflation tends to depress the value of a currency. I cited Japan's case to show how deflation tends to elevate the value of a currency. Now, maybe you believe that the pound, because it is British, obeys some special rules not applicable to other currencies.  Another opportunity for you to be known as a 2nd Einstein awaits your explanation. .

 

I'm not sure what you your point is about the GBP at 1.33. If you mean that it is doing better against the dollar in the past year, name me one major currency that hasn't appreciated against the dollar in the same time period. Why do you think that this is especially significant? So are you saying that there's a special reason for the pound's rise against the dollar that differs from that of other major currencies? Again, an opportunity to eclipse Einstein.

 

In fact given that you have 3 opportunities to revolutionize economics, and I'm sure you'll rise to the task, I predict that one day Einstein will be known as the Nauseous of Physics.

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, ilostmypassword said:

Here's what you wrote

"Because the Euro was depressed from mid 2014 due to deflationary pressure, which was largely avoided by Sterling during that period. The ECB stepped up its monthly asset purchases to a monthly total of EUR 80bn and they are still ongoing. Less deflationary pressure now but all this QE will come at a cost further down the track."

 

And it's nonsense. Currencies don't get depressed because of "deflationary pressure." It's actually the opposite. Deflation means the purchasing power of an individual unit of currency increases. Which means the currency tends to becomes more valuable in relation to other currencies , not less. But if you can prove otherwise, you'll be known as the Einstein of economics.

 

I cited the Deutschmark of the 1920s to show how inflation tends to depress the value of a currency. I cited Japan's case to show how deflation tends to elevate the value of a currency. Now, maybe you believe that the pound, because it is British, obeys some special rules not applicable to other currencies.  Another opportunity for you to be known as a 2nd Einstein awaits your explanation. .

 

I'm not sure what you your point is about the GBP at 1.33. If you mean that it is doing better against the dollar in the past year, name me one major currency that hasn't appreciated against the dollar in the same time period. Why do you think that this is especially significant? So are you saying that there's a special reason for the pound's rise against the dollar that differs from that of other major currencies? Again, an opportunity to eclipse Einstein.

 

In fact given that you have 3 opportunities to revolutionize economics, and I'm sure you'll rise to the task, I predict that one day Einstein will be known as the Nauseous of Physics.

But I didn't use the word artificial! I don't need lessons on economic theory. I know what should happen theoretically but this did not apply to the Euro 2014-2016. What do you expect with -ve interest rates??

 

GBP rising v USD last few days but EUR is not.

[ilostmypassword]

12 minutes ago, nauseus said:

But I didn't use the word artificial! I don't need lessons on economic theory. I know what should happen theoretically but this did not apply to the Euro 2014-2016. What do you expect with -ve interest rates??

 

GBP rising v USD last few days but EUR is not.

If you really didn't need lessons on economic theory you wouldn't have written  "Because the Euro was depressed from mid 2014 due to deflationary pressure..."  The pressure of deflation works the opposite way.

[nauseus]

3 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

If you really didn't need lessons on economic theory you wouldn't have written  "Because the Euro was depressed from mid 2014 due to deflationary pressure..."  The pressure of deflation works the opposite way.

In theory! But in practice from 2014-2016 deflationary pressure (risk) plus NIRP were factors while the value of the the EURO slumped. The Euro is a common currency but to groups of national economies within the Eurozone which are different and which had varying levels of deflation (and low-level inflation in Germany) and varying levels of capability to combat it.

 

So the accepted economic rules may not always apply in the case of the Euro. It is rather unique in this world and it is not suitable for many of the EU members (e.g. Greece). 

Edited September 15, 2017 by nauseus