Can Trump reverse Thailand’s drift towards China

[webfact]

Can Trump reverse Thailand’s drift towards China

by Qi Lin

 

Under the doctrine of “America First,” the Thai military regime has enjoyed warming relations with the United States. However, economic and development opportunities with China have pulled Thailand into China’s orbit. Does the U.S. have the chance to increase its engagement in Thailand – or will China emerge as the preeminent economic and security guarantor in Southeast Asia?

 

Following the Thai military coup in 2014, the United States withdrew support its support for the new military regime. The US canceled a series of visits, downgraded its level of engagement and suspended military assistance to this country. Joint military exercises proceeded as planned, but on a smaller scale and under restricted conditions. Since 2013, US participation in the exercises has dropped to an annual commitment of 3,600 troops, down from 9,500.

 

US-Thailand alliance boost

However, by emphasising “America First,” the Trump administration has shifted US foreign policy priorities to emphasize American trade and strategic interests over democracy and human rights. The US-Thailand relationship has gradually thawed, and both countries are resuming strategic dialogues and military interactions. In February, the US Pacific Command chief Admiral Harry Harris attended this year’s Cobra Gold joint military exercise, while in August, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency approved the sale of Harpoon Block II Missiles to Thailand.

 

Full story: http://globalriskinsights.com/2017/10/trump-engages-thailand/

 

-- Global Risk Inside 2017-10-30

[Samui Bodoh]

8 minutes ago, webfact said:

Can Trump reverse Thailand’s drift towards China

 

With respect to the author, I believe that they are asking the wrong question. A better and more relevant question would be can/should Thailand reverse Thailand's  drift towards China?

 

Is it in the US's interests to have a strong alliance with Thailand? Yes, it is. Is it a vital alliance? No, I don't believe that it is anymore. The Thai-US alliance was a vital arrangement in the past, but while still important, no longer has the value to the US it once had. Quick example; in the past at the time of the US-Vietnam war, Thailand was vital for airbases. Today, Vietnam itself can provide that function, and bombers can use Japan/Guam/Okinawa/S Korea, etc.

 

Is the Thai-China alliance vital? At the moment, I don't believe that it is, but it is on a path of making Thailand dependent on China and its economy/policy and that is dangerous as hell. It would take several books to lay out all the issues involved, but a short version is that China is moving into SE Asia economically, militarily, culturally and diplomatically. That in itself isn't a bad thing, but without a counter-balancing presence of the US, it is a dangerous road. If Thailand joins and becomes a member of the "one Belt and one Road" (?) policy of China, will it ever be able to stop being part of it?

 

To paraphrase Sun Tzu; be wary of alliances with close neighbours; makes alliances with powerful friends far away.

 

I think Thailand needs to be very, very careful in how it interacts with China, and I don't see the wariness needed at the moment. 

 

Interesting times...

 

[ramrod711]

Trump couldn't organize a train wreck, there is no reason to believe he understands the problems that any Asian countries face when dealing with China.

[craigt3365]

More money to be made trading with China.  Corruption is rife there also.  As shown by the rice trading scam.

[Cadbury]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

".....economic and development opportunities with China have pulled Thailand into China’s orbit"

This is hardly what you would call startling news. The International Corruption Perceptions Index may tell the story.

The least corrupt country in the world is Denmark at No.1 

Thailand is up there with the heavy weight corruptors at No. 101 while China is not far away at No.79. 

The USA is a lowly No. 18.

With Thailand the way it is where corruption is a way of life then doing business with China is therefore much easier and far more individually rewarding than doing trade deals with the reasonably honest USA. 

 

[brommers]

It is about time that Thailand committed to being one of the leading Asian nations. Britain has held the delusion of a Special Relationship with the US for far too long and to its detriment. Thailand must not fall into this trap. The US is returning to its isolationist stance and will soon be little more than a large but less significant entity in the world.

[craigt3365]

Just now, brommers said:

It is about time that Thailand committed to being one of the leading Asian nations. Britain has held the delusion of a Special Relationship with the US for far too long and to its detriment. Thailand must not fall into this trap. The US is returning to its isolationist stance and will soon be little more than a large but less significant entity in the world.

Britian's relationship with the US has been a detriment?  Can you please provide a credible link that supports that. LOL

 

Many have been predicting the demise of the US and the dollar for decades.  None have been right so far.  The US economy is doing great.  By all standards.  A good trading partner to have.

 

Thailand can, and should, partner with both the US and China.

[punchjudy]

culturally & geographically there is going to be a lot more in common with china than the self-righteous white knight from across the pacific.

 

 

[LazySlipper]

 

Yes he can!!!!

1. Send over more quality tourists.

2. Fund a Disney World!

[Briggsy]

As soon as the Thai ruling classes consider China to be an existential threat, they will move towards the West.

 

This "existential threat" is far more likely to be a takeover of the economy, a takeover of key infrastructure (e.g. ports and railways!!), an alienation from fellow ASEAN members that has real economic consequences, China controlling Thailand remotely through very important people

 

rather than

 

any weakening of the Thai military through over reliance on China or any Chinese takeover of land in Thailand.

 

Forget Trump. He has no vision, no interest and zero knowledge on the U.S. - China struggle for influence in South East Asia.

[yellowboat]

China has financial resources and a favorable geographic location.  Their railway diplomacy is exciting and will be very difficult to beat.  You just do not see anything coming from the west that competes with China in the region. 

[Peterw42]

Last time I looked , the US is blaming Muslims, immigration and free trade for all their problems, and building walls (both physical and metaphorical) to block immigration, investment, trade and partnerships. Why would any country want to engage with that level of isolationism.

[fvw53]

Chinese and Thai Foreign Policy is based on a very old rule :

When the Pope in Rome was still the head of the Papal States (Central Italy) there was a constant competition with the King of France for control of Northern Italy and the kingdom of Naples.

Many fights and even wars have erupted during several centuries...
During the time of French King Louis XIII the Prime Minister of France was also a Cardinal in the Catholic Church : Duke Armand Jean du Plessis de Richelieu known as "Cardinal-Duc de Richelieu".

At one occasion... and to stab the Pope in the back.... Richelieu made an alliance with the Sultan of the Ottoman Empire.... and a French cabinet member asked him " how can you - as a cardinal - make this alliance with the Muslims against the Pope?"
Richelieu replied : "France has no permanent friends, no permanent enemies...only permanent interests"

[zakk9]

I would rather say that through his behavior, he is scaring Thailand and most other Asian countries closer to China. In Addition, China is a neighbouring country while the United States are on the opposite side of the globe. The good relationship between Thailand and the USA dates back to the time when Thailand was needed as a military base to kill people in Indochina. The Americans have in the meantime found other people to kill.

[Briggsy]

53 minutes ago, yellowboat said:

Their railway diplomacy is exciting and will be very difficult to beat.

A highly ambiguous sentence, perhaps deliberately so!

 

"exciting" in what way?

Let's assume a good way. 'good' for whom? China is not known for its largesse, rather for its deals that give short-term benefits to the recipient and long-term benefits to China to the detriment of the recipient.

 

"Difficult to beat" from what perspective? The U.S. funded and put in place much of Thailand's infrastructure including deep sea ports, airports, major roads and oil refineries.

 

Is "railway diplomacy" a euphemism for 'huge bribes'?

 

I am trying  to see where you are going with this?

[chainarong]

How Long is a piece of string , ...................................

[car720]

22 minutes ago, Briggsy said:

A highly ambiguous sentence, perhaps deliberately so!

 

"exciting" in what way?

Let's assume a good way. 'good' for whom? China is not known for its largesse, rather for its deals that give short-term benefits to the recipient and long-term benefits to China to the detriment of the recipient.

 

"Difficult to beat" from what perspective? The U.S. funded and put in place much of Thailand's infrastructure including deep sea ports, airports, major roads and oil refineries.

 

Is "railway diplomacy" a euphemism for 'huge bribes'?

 

I am trying  to see where you are going with this?

short-term benefits to the recipient and long-term benefits to China to the detriment of the recipient.

 

sounds a lot like Thailand.

[car720]

2 hours ago, ramrod711 said:

Trump couldn't organize a train wreck, there is no reason to believe he understands the problems that any Asian countries face when dealing with China.

Trump and I have a lot in common.

The more irrelevant we become the more irreverent we become.

[overherebc]

23 minutes ago, chainarong said:

How Long is a piece of string , ...................................

Half the length it would be if it was twice as long. ?

Chinese answer by me.

[craigt3365]

1 hour ago, Peterw42 said:

Last time I looked , the US is blaming Muslims, immigration and free trade for all their problems, and building walls (both physical and metaphorical) to block immigration, investment, trade and partnerships. Why would any country want to engage with that level of isolationism.

Last time I looked, China was illegally building on pristine islands in the SCS, persecuting indigent populations in various parts of their country (Muslims included), illegally abducting foreigners in other countries (never to be seen again), reduced free speech by all drastically, etc.  Why would any country want to engage with that level of problems.

[Johnnyngai]

1 hour ago, Briggsy said:

A highly ambiguous sentence, perhaps deliberately so!

 

"exciting" in what way?

Let's assume a good way. 'good' for whom? China is not known for its largesse, rather for its deals that give short-term benefits to the recipient and long-term benefits to China to the detriment of the recipient.

 

"Difficult to beat" from what perspective? The U.S. funded and put in place much of Thailand's infrastructure including deep sea ports, airports, major roads and oil refineries.

 

Is "railway diplomacy" a euphemism for 'huge bribes'?

 

I am trying  to see where you are going with this?

Like most Chinese products, they are 30% lower quality but 50% lower price.   

The railways and the trains are too.   Which developing country does not want a bigger transportation system ?

[mfd101]

All of this is of course an issue for every country in SE Asia & beyond ... Australia, for instance.

 

Being friends with both the US & China is not easy, but being clever & good at diplomatic skills helps. Australia finds it difficult. Eating your cake and having it is counter to Oz cultural norms of honesty & directness in dealing with others. Shouldn't be beyond Thai skills however ...

[Johnnyngai]

1 hour ago, craigt3365 said:

Last time I looked, China was illegally building on pristine islands in the SCS, persecuting indigent populations in various parts of their country (Muslims included), illegally abducting foreigners in other countries (never to be seen again), reduced free speech by all drastically, etc.  Why would any country want to engage with that level of problems.

" persecuting indigent populations in various parts of their country (Muslims included) "  

Wait until economic developments get to the remote areas where ethnic minorities live.   Many Han peasants had lost their land due to local officials' land grapping.          Han Chinese make up 90% of the population. 

 

" illegally abducting foreigners in other countries "   According to Chinese law,  anyone born in China is  FOREVER  a Chinese citizen.

It is up to those host countries to put their foot down and say: " NO  STOP "  

 

" (never to be seen again) "     It is a common practice in most authoritarian government.    

 

 " reduced free speech by all drastically, etc. "     Again, it is a common practice in all authoritarian government. 

 

" Why would any country want to engage with that level of problems "           What is wrong with trying to make a profit ? 

 

The authoritarian Chinese government is equally unfair to all it's citizens,  that makes it fair.   

 

If you think that China is the only authoritarian government on earth,  that makes you unfair to China. 

 

 

[Johnnyngai]

1 hour ago, craigt3365 said:

Last time I looked, China was illegally building on pristine islands in the SCS, persecuting indigent populations in various parts of their country (Muslims included), illegally abducting foreigners in other countries (never to be seen again), reduced free speech by all drastically, etc.  Why would any country want to engage with that level of problems.

" Last time I looked, China was illegally building on pristine islands in the SCS, "  

The island dispute has been going on and off for many hundred years.  

China has been down and out for almost 200 years; what is wrong with getting back to the island dispute again.  

All the countries involved with the island dispute have a stack of wrinkle old maps with them. 

Which of those has the best map ?   

Many countries in the world have on going  border disputes with neighbors, what is new ? 

[craigt3365]

15 minutes ago, Johnnyngai said:

If you think that China is the only authoritarian government on earth,  that makes you unfair to China.

Interesting post.  And no, I'm well aware China isn't the only authoritarian government on earth.  I've personally visited many.

[craigt3365]

3 minutes ago, Johnnyngai said:

" Last time I looked, China was illegally building on pristine islands in the SCS, "  

The island dispute has been going on and off for many hundred years.  

China has been down and out for almost 200 years; what is wrong with getting back to the island dispute again.  

All the countries involved with the island dispute have a stack of wrinkle old maps with them. 

Which of those has the best map ?   

Many countries in the world have on going  border disputes with neighbors, what is new ? 

Actually, if you research this, it's very sketchy.  And kinda points to a map somebody make up around the 40's or 50's showing China's ownership of the islands.  I've not seen anything that proves their ownership back a few hundred years.

 

In the end, the international tribunal ruled against China.  Time for them to abide by the ruling.

[Johnnyngai]

5 minutes ago, craigt3365 said:

Actually, if you research this, it's very sketchy.  And kinda points to a map somebody make up around the 40's or 50's showing China's ownership of the islands.  I've not seen anything that proves their ownership back a few hundred years.

 

In the end, the international tribunal ruled against China.  Time for them to abide by the ruling.

" And kinda points to a map somebody make up around the 40's or 50's showing China's ownership of the islands.  "

 

That was the all time low in Chinese history.   Invasion by the superpower of the time Japan,  civil war between the USA backed nationalist army and the all volunteer rag tag communist/peasants fighters.  The capital in Beijing had to move to a mountain city near Tibet to avoid Japanese bombing.        Someone in China has the time to draw oceanic maps ? 

 

Chinese first immigrated to Jakarta back in the 1700s, the Qing emperor of the time didn't have enough sense to make an oceanic map for the sole purpose of island grapping ? ?    The first three emperors of the Qing dynasty were very expansion minded, they used their Mongolian Calvary for many unethical missions. 

 

When was the last time any major country abide by the  international tribunal ?   

Let's get that fat boy in North Korea  abide by the  international tribunal .

[ZAKY]

Thailand should have two official languages i.e thai & english in order to succeed among other asians countries.

[zydeco]

China eventually creates problems with every country on its borders: India, Vietnam, Russia, Bhutan. Even the Burmese are backing away from them as quickly as possible. Go to Laos and ask the people who deal with Chinese what they think of China. Not to mention that every country one step beyond China's borders also fears them: Japan, South Korea. Then, you've got all the 'stans whose populace can't be happy with what is happening to Uighurs in China. Come to think of it, since all those 'stans once belonged to Russia, I wonder how long before Russia and China get into a direct conflict over the 'stans future political orientation. If Thailand thinks they are going to be allowed to be anything other than a vassal state, they had better think again. Thailand could soon find itself in a Myanmar type situation--totally reliant on China and isolated from the West.  And what happens if China goes to Cold War status with the West and all those Thai industrial exports to China that are turned into finished products exported to the West suddenly find themselves in the embargo?

[Morch]

4 hours ago, Peterw42 said:

Last time I looked , the US is blaming Muslims, immigration and free trade for all their problems, and building walls (both physical and metaphorical) to block immigration, investment, trade and partnerships. Why would any country want to engage with that level of isolationism.

 

Trump does, rather than the USA. And Trump would be out, sooner or later, one way or the other.