Reshuffle ‘will not fix economic problems’

[rooster59]

Reshuffle ‘will not fix economic problems’

By WICHIT CHAITRONG 
KASAMAKORN CHANWANPEN 
THE SUNDAY NATION

 

File Photo: Prayut

 

EXPERTS SAY MILITARY GENERALS SIMPLY DON’T HAVE THE EXPERIENCE TO RUN SPECIALISED MINISTRY

 

THE CABINET reshuffle may not create change for the better, as private investors still have questions about political stability and consumers remain in a debt trap, economists said.

 

Political analysts have different impressions of the move, with some saying the junta may have learned a lesson from putting people into the wrong jobs, and others believing that the reshuffle will not see substantial change.

 

As Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha plans to revamp his Cabinet, amid suggestions that three ministers will be sacked, economists are not positive about the country’s outlook.

 

“Consumers are cautious about spending, as they are not confident about their future income,” said Viroj Na Ranong, an economist at the Thailand Development Research Institute.

 

This has a chain effect, with private investors reluctant to make new investments because they fear sluggish demand for their products.

 

Viroj said that Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak had pushed hard for public investment and expected that private investors would follow suit, but this hope has not yet materialised.

 

“The big question is concern about political stability,” Viroj pointed out. He said many people thought that the coup in 2014 would create confidence and lead to high economic growth, but three years had passed and this had not happened.

 

Although exports and the economy had recovered, growth was at a slower place than in neighbouring countries, he said. For some export items, the growth was caused by a windfall rather than a competitive edge.

 

For example, the rise in exports of frozen chicken was partly because many other countries suffered from avian flu, he said.

 

‘Too many generals’

 

Nada Chunsom, dean of NIDA Graduate School of Development Economics, said Prayut should have appointed professionals to Cabinet portfolios, but instead had appointed too many generals to his team. This was a mistake in the first place, she said.

 

“Many investors have adopted a wait-and-see strategy, as they want to see where the political road map will lead,” said Nada, referring to the government’s promise to hold a general election next year. They are also waiting to see what the 20-year national strategy will be after the government recently set up committees to draft one.

 

“Government infrastructure projects have not much progressed as planned [and] this has also adversely affected investor confidence,” said Nada.

 

But firing the Transport Minister who supervises many public investment projects may not help much, she added.

 

Consumers remain cautious in their spending because personal debt remains high, she said. Household debt was equivalent to 78.4 per cent of gross domestic product in the second quarter this year.

 

The government also is facing a tax-revenue shortfall, leading to a continued budget deficit. The Finance Ministry has not succeeded in collecting more taxes, she said.

 

Nada added that the Industry Ministry has not been able to help local manufacturers upgrade their procedures, which is not an easy task.

 

An informed source has said that Prayut may fire three ministers – Interior Minister General Anupong Paochinda, Transport Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith and PM’s Office Minister Omsin Chivapruek.

 

‘Beyond their expertise’

 

Political analysts have different views regarding the potential reshuffle.

 

Chamnan Chanruang, an independent political scientist, said he thought the change in the Cabinet could come because time has proved the military does not have what it takes to run the country.

 

The military men may be bright, as getting into cadet school is not easy, the scholar said. But they have not been trained in politics or public administration, he stressed.

 

“[Inefficiency in administration] was clear and it has shown perhaps [the military] does not know what they are doing. It’s beyond their expertise,” Chamnan said. “Ministers may only lay out and pass down policies. But they must be specialists, have expertise, and have networks of people in the field in order to achieve favourable results.”

 

Although the reshuffle was coming rather late given the fact that this was the last year of junta administration, the scholar said it was better late than never. The government needed more civilians who had expertise, he said, and the best way to save the country was to hurry and return the power to the people by holding an election.

 

Pramuan Aimpia, deputy spokesman for the Democrat Party, too, believed that the junta had learned the lesson that some work was not appropriate for the military, as they had not been trained to run the country.

 

Citing the reform that is a major agenda item for the NCPO, Pramuan said that the government, too, needed to reform itself, firstly by learning how to put the right person into the right job.

 

The Democrat politician urged Prayut to have courage to remove inefficient people from the Cabinet. Veteran political critic Sukhum Nuan-sakul saw the matter differently. It was too quick to jump to the conclusion that the junta would actually replace their fellow military men with civilians, he said.

 

“This is only a minor reshuffle, not a major one where we will see significant change,” the political scientist predicted.

 

“I still believe strongly that the military will stick it out together until the end. If there is really to be any change, maybe the persons taking the posts will still be old faces from the bureaucratic sector rather than highly capable people from the private sector who could actually help.”

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30330831

 

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2017-11-05

[Samui Bodoh]

Politics and economics tend to rely on confidence. If the people have faith in the leadership and their policies, prospects are generally good. If they do not have faith in the leadership, then prospects go badly.

 

People, both Thai and foreign, have made it clear that they do not have faith in general P and his cronies.

 

Time for then to head for the door...

 

Edited November 4, 2017 by Samui Bodoh

[bheard]

Nice to see that one of the 'nominees' for firing could be the minister for the Interior. If I'm not mistaken 2he's the person responsible for bomb detectors, blimp, and currently the proposed radar guns.
The amazing aspect of his presence is that he is still employed!

Sent from my BLL-L22 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[Cadbury]

One of the most forthright, brave and honest appraisals of the current governance of Thailand.......or more to the point the lack thereof.

6 minutes ago, rooster59 said:

The military men may be bright, as getting into cadet school is not easy, the scholar said. But they have not been trained in politics or public administration, he stressed.

This is one of a number of serious criticisms. One has to look no further than General Prawit as an example of the type of person who should never have anything to do with running a country. And the rest just make up a conga line of untrained administrative incompetents. It is all about the military gravy train and the Generals and a certain class of people that is important. Nothing at all to do with the population as a whole; except for a few tokenistic gestures.

Of course influential and powerful "connections" have an input into certain decisions. But most likely only those matters that might improve their personal wealth. Nepotism is rampant.

As it is now Ministers seem almost redundant. The country is being run, not by a Cabinet of ministers, but by a single person who uses Article 44 to control just about everything right down to how to tie your shoelaces. He makes a decision and barks the order to his respective Minister. They in turn hand the responsibility over to other incompetent underling Generals and from thereon down the line the machinery of administration usually runs amuck. And when everything finally goes belly-up the PM runs for cover. The registration of foreign workers was a classic case.

 

21 minutes ago, rooster59 said:

The government also is facing a tax-revenue shortfall, leading to a continued budget deficit. The Finance Ministry has not succeeded in collecting more taxes, she said.

This is a valid comment however nothing is mentioned in this story about the needless and shocking waste of money on the purchase of armaments like submarines, tanks, rockets and the like which has a big impact on the budget but without any improvement to the economy. How on earth the multiplicity of dreamtime high speed trains will ever eventuate with the present state of the budget is a true mystery. 

I hope for the people of Thailand that something changes for the better but I can't see that happening any time soon. Life for those presently running the country is just too comfortable, rewarding and satisfying for their egos.

[ezzra]

Thailand gets the leadership it's deserves, even when good people were elected

to be PM like Anand Panyarachun, Chuan Leekpai and Abhisit Vejjajiva

they didn't last long, too placid, too timid, and they were quickly taken

over by more aggressive and dominant people, 

like it or not, Thailand needs strong people to rule over them, just as childrens

need a strong hands, even when they thing it's too much at times....

[PremiumLane]

4 hours ago, ezzra said:

Thailand gets the leadership it's deserves, even when good people were elected

to be PM like Anand Panyarachun, Chuan Leekpai and Abhisit Vejjajiva

they didn't last long, too placid, too timid, and they were quickly taken

over by more aggressive and dominant people, 

like it or not, Thailand needs strong people to rule over them, just as childrens

need a strong hands, even when they thing it's too much at times....

talking absolute rubbish

[Eric Loh]

I think he himself should line up for reshuffle. He is the leader and if the team fails, that is  a leadership problem. He leads, guides, inspire, coordinate and staff. He has failed all. Time to go. 

[Cadbury]

Just now, Eric Loh said:

He is the leader and if the team fails, that is  a leadership problem. He leads, guides, inspire, coordinate and staff. He has failed all. Time to go. 

And take his Article 44 with him.

[colinneil]

Yes time to go, boys have got their new toys, time to get out, pockets are bulging from all the kickbacks.

No more room at the trough,.

Most folk are tired of all the spin/ lies, all your pensions are completely topped up. do not be greedy, not much left in the kitty.

[petermik]

Fear not..the current PM has everything under control

 

[Eric Loh]

8 hours ago, rooster59 said:

An informed source has said that Prayut may fire three ministers – Interior Minister General Anupong Paochinda, Transport Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith and PM’s Office Minister Omsin Chivapruek.

Should also fire the Labour Minister for the foreign workers disaster,  Agriculture & Cooperative Minister for the inability to provide solutions for the weak farm produce prices and the Resource Enviroment Minister for the continuous Illegal fishery impasse. But most important, fire them because they are generals

masquerading as ministers.