Plunging British Pound Saps Expat Pension Spending Power

[lovinglife]

19 minutes ago, KarenBravo said:

.....and of course, you do, even after making a false claim that the Baht tracks the dollar.

Pot, meet kettle.

Check your facts! I didn't say the THB tracks the $, I know it doesn't.

[simoh1490]

6 minutes ago, smedly said:

so you predicted brexit or was it nuclear war or some other disaster lol

 

can you get your crystal balls out and tell us all what happens next .................. there is a 50% chance you might be right 

You know Smedley, you have a very short memory. As I recall you and I went backwards and forwards sometime ago with you trying to tell me that the Pound would get back to above 50 and me telling you there was no way that would ever happen, remember!

[KarenBravo]

1 minute ago, lovinglife said:

Check your facts! I didn't say the THB tracks the $, I know it doesn't.

Why don't you check to see who I was replying to.

Here's a hint. It wasn't you.

[lovinglife]

 

27 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

You were doing really great until you wrote the above about experts and vested interest, all of which is so much blah blah and shows how little you really understand about economics and global markets.

It's a fact, many of these agencies are funded by governments and the EU. And also the big banks would much prefer UK to stay in the EU so they deliberately forecast catastrophe before the vote, they now admit they were wrong.

[lovinglife]

4 minutes ago, KarenBravo said:

Why don't you check to see who I was replying to.

Here's a hint. It wasn't you.

Sorry, it appeared on my window that you had replied to me

[simoh1490]

On the subject of THB tracking USD:

 

Here's the IMF policy on SDR's, note the weightings:

 

"The respective weights of the US dollar, euro, Chinese renminbi, Japanese yen, and British pound sterling are 41.73 percent, 30.93 percent, 10.92 percent, 8.33 percent, and 8.09 percent".

 

http://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/Sheets/2016/08/01/14/51/Special-Drawing-Right-SDR

[KarenBravo]

2 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

On the subject of THB tracking USD:

 

Here's the IMF policy on SDR's, note the weightings:

 

"The respective weights of the US dollar, euro, Chinese renminbi, Japanese yen, and British pound sterling are 41.73 percent, 30.93 percent, 10.92 percent, 8.33 percent, and 8.09 percent".

 

http://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/Sheets/2016/08/01/14/51/Special-Drawing-Right-SDR

Those figures add up to 100%..........for only four currencies.

What about the other 21 that you claimed were also in the basket?

[JAG]

Equiniti! Stop producing reports stating the bleeding obvious. Turn your minds to why you regularly pay my pension late!

Sent from my KENNY using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[simoh1490]

2 minutes ago, KarenBravo said:

Those figures add up to 100%..........for only four currencies.

What about the other 21 that you claimed were also in the basket?

That's the SDR basket, BOT also holds currencies of its key trading partners that are not required by the SDR basket. You may recall that exporters in Thailand were required by BOT regs. to exchange all foreign currency derived from export trade within short timescales, that was then extended to one year and has now been relaxed further to allow exporters to invest that foreign currency overseas. But BOT continues to hold those currencies as a part of their foreign currency reserves, in support of non USD denominated import bills.

[james1995]

I was just in London recently and found it surprisingly cheap(although not the houses).  Wasn't expensive at all.

[RichardColeman]

I think if you plan your retirement in Thailand without thinking about say at least 10-20% swing on currencies then you are a fool - more so if you have sold all your links to returning back to the UK.

 

If you plan for a 3% annual rise in pension, but fail to plan for a potential fall in currencies then you get what you deserve. Harsh ? No, true.

 

I have met several ex-pats who live in Thailand on just a UK state pension - no other. Do they live well ? No, they live in 2500-400 baht a month accommodation and live cheaply. But they all say they still have a better life than in the UK.

 

[Get Real]

I sincerely feel sorry regarding the drop in pension for so many of the brittish retirees. Actually know a lot of a nice bunch of them. 

However, I also see it as a perfect thing for all the brittish troublemakers, as seen again after the clock tells the new year has come in Hua Hin.
Just hope that thoose people find it really economically difficult to travel anywhere in the future.

[smedly]

27 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

You know Smedley, you have a very short memory. As I recall you and I went backwards and forwards sometime ago with you trying to tell me that the Pound would get back to above 50 and me telling you there was no way that would ever happen, remember!

and I still stand by that, once all this brexit stuff is done and dusted only then will sterling start to strengthen, I would have assumed a smart guy like you would understand that.........but maybe not

 

so go ahead and tell us all what is going to happen - we are all holding our breath for your greatness

[lovinglife]

5 minutes ago, james1995 said:

I was just in London recently and found it surprisingly cheap(although not the houses).  Wasn't expensive at all.

Housing costs are ridiculous in London but the rest of the country is very reasonable, food is of a very high standard and very cheap now, probably due to high competition. After UK leaves the EU food that cannot be produced in Britain will get even cheaper as EU tariffs on imports will disappear allowing the RotW access, this will particularly benefit poorer countries.

[Jeremy50]

It will likely go below 40 Baht to the pound this year, as the Brexit nightmare continues, with  interest rates staying close to  zero,  rampant inflation , stagnating wages that can't keep pace with the cost of living, foreign  buyers who  keep pushing up property prices, and the insidious benefit entitlement culture that continues to impoverish the nation.  All you can do is hunker down, and embrace a life of austerity until it all blows over.  Happy New Year.

[simoh1490]

1 minute ago, smedly said:

and I still stand by that, once all this brexit stuff is done and dusted only then will sterling start to strengthen, I would have assumed a smart guy like you would understand that.........but maybe not

 

so go ahead and tell us all what is going to happen - we are all holding our breath for your greatness

That's easy, if Brexit is a success the Pound will increase in value, if it is not it will fall.

[KarenBravo]

1 minute ago, Get Real said:

However, I also see it as a perfect thing for all the brittish troublemakers, as seen again after the clock tells the new year has come in Hua Hin.
Just hope that thoose people find it really economically difficult to travel anywhere in the future.

That would only be true if their propensity to make trouble was connected to their economic situation.

There are plenty of yobs with lots of coin, so, very much doubt you will see violence decrease as the exchange rate goes down.

[PattayaAngel]

6 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

I think if you plan your retirement in Thailand without thinking about say at least 10-20% swing on currencies then you are a fool - more so if you have sold all your links to returning back to the UK.

 

If you plan for a 3% annual rise in pension, but fail to plan for a potential fall in currencies then you get what you deserve. Harsh ? No, true.

 

I have met several ex-pats who live in Thailand on just a UK state pension - no other. Do they live well ? No, they live in 2500-400 baht a month accommodation and live cheaply. But they all say they still have a better life than in the UK.

 

Losers will be Losers that's true

[Get Real]

1 minute ago, KarenBravo said:

That would only be true if their propensity to make trouble was connected to their economic situation.

There are plenty of yobs with lots of coin, so, very much doubt you will see violence decrease as the exchange rate goes down.

Yeah, of course I doubt that too. It was just a wish as expressed.

[lovinglife]

18 minutes ago, james1995 said:

I was just in London recently and found it surprisingly cheap(although not the houses).  Wasn't expensive at all.

And London has just been named 'The best city in the World in which to do business' - Despite Brexit as the BBC would say

[bkk_mike]

1 hour ago, oldwelshman said:

Basically, no one, so called experts or not, can predict what will happen in the future with currencies, its like playing roulette lol. The experts were so good in last few years they were the ones who caused the global recession.

I'd agree with you if, 21 years ago, I hadn't been in a meeting with the head FX trader in London at Chase (this was shortly after the merger with Chemical Bank, a few years before the merger with JPMorgan) where they discussed (in late 1996), about how they thought that they were overexposed to the THB and would look to reduce their positions.

 

The interesting thing - the reason given at the meeting for the decision to reduce their positions was that although Thailand had been stable for a few years and, at the time had a fixed exchange rate with the dollar, it was historically prone to political unrest and coups, so they thought the political risk wasn't effectively priced into the positions.

 

And what happened in 1997 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Asian_financial_crisis

 

I'm just an IT developer (at the time, I was working on the migration from the old Chase FX system to the Chemical one - which is how I was in the meeting). But it definitely made me realise that actual experts (intelligent people who work full-time on something, rather than politicians or pundits or TV presenters) are far more likely to be correct than the average person on the street.

[bert bloggs]

1 hour ago, PattayaAngel said:

Losers will be Losers that's true

I live on a UK state pension here in Thailand and certainly do not live in a 2500 baht a month room , far far from it ,and yes we have a good life .

[Basil B]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

 

File photo

The lead photo is well out of date...

The paper fivers are no longer legal tender and the paper tenners will cease to be legal tender in March, (have not seen a paper tenner for months).

[PattayaAngel]

24 minutes ago, bert bloggs said:

I live on a UK state pension here in Thailand and certainly do not live in a 2500 baht a month room , far far from it ,and yes we have a good life .

That's good news but something must be very wrong, maybe a divorce?, for anyone to rely  on the British State Pension. When reviewing my finances I never even calculate what my pension will be as it's minor.  All I know is that I now won't get it until 67 and, eventually, they will do away with State Pensions and will continue to erode them.

Edited January 2, 2018 by PattayaAngel

[Basil B]

Very old news the pound was basically devalued 18 months ago, that was a result of of the Brexit voters, has if any thing actually risen slightly since 24 June 2018.

[simoh1490]

11 minutes ago, bkk_mike said:

I'd agree with you if, 21 years ago, I hadn't been in a meeting with the head FX trader in London at Chase (this was shortly after the merger with Chemical Bank, a few years before the merger with JPMorgan) where they discussed (in late 1996), about how they thought that they were overexposed to the THB and would look to reduce their positions.

 

The interesting thing - the reason given at the meeting for the decision to reduce their positions was that although Thailand had been stable for a few years and, at the time had a fixed exchange rate with the dollar, it was historically prone to political unrest and coups, so they thought the political risk wasn't effectively priced into the positions.

 

And what happened in 1997 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Asian_financial_crisis

 

I'm just an IT developer (at the time, I was working on the migration from the old Chase FX system to the Chemical one - which is how I was in the meeting). But it definitely made me realise that actual experts (intelligent people who work full-time on something, rather than politicians or pundits or TV presenters) are far more likely to be correct than the average person on the street.

Exactly. And 21 years ago most of the mature banking world knew that Thailands peg against USD was a problem because they could see the extent of offshore loans being made, Soros certainly did whereas the man in the street didn't have a clue.

[bkk_mike]

5 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Exactly. And 21 years ago most of the mature banking world knew that Thailands peg against USD was a problem because they could see the extent of offshore loans being made, Soros certainly did whereas the man in the street didn't have a clue.

Soros:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-george-soros-decision-leave-eu-reverse-stop-tipping-point-moment-truth-article-a7799426.html

[FritsSikkink]

2 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

"Started the year at 1.24 now 1.35. Now 44 THB to £ same as Jan 2017".

 

So explain to us what happened, did GBP strengthen/weaken or did THB strengthen/weaken?

The article compare to 2 years ago when the pound was 53/54

[wgdanson]

2 hours ago, lovinglife said:

$ has weakened against THB and £ in 2017. That's not a bad thing for US economy, helps exports, same as £ weakening against euro has boosted UK exports

 

I do not export anything, except myself.

[lucjoker]

If your assets are in any currency .......you loose.

If your assets were in land ,gold ,.......you did very good 

If your assets were in Bitcoin you made......1242 %    in 2017 , 

yes continue the jokes about Bitcoin ( and Thrump) and keep losing.

In 2018 ? probably exactly the same , maybe a litle less for bitcoin ? 

Maybe only 1000% return on your assets , still ok with me .

My advise : keep listening to the politicians and the banks .....and get <deleted>** over again.

Greetings 

Madame Soleil