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The Warnings


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On 17/01/2018 at 4:19 PM, phycokiller said:

the price is back to what it was at the end of november, if you are a short term invester you might not have done so well, long term its nothing unusual

For me I was back to Jan 1 portfolio value this morning and now this afternoon back to same value as a week ago across a basket of alts, no BTC.

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Always they talk about "Bitcoin", there are various alts with superior tech of faster, cheaper, more secure/private.

 

If Bitcoin was released today it would likely be a failure competing against the other superior 2.0 and 3.0 alts that have emerged. It was a fantastically ingenious first pass and proof of concept, but has been spoiled and hamstrung by the politics of a "civil war" as a result of decentralisation, one of it's primary initial attractions ("the man" can't change the rules).

 

Plus thinking of the blockchain data structure as only related to cryptocoins is like saying a SQL database is only for storing names and addresses, lots of different uses are emerging. It is not the answer to everything, but some things it is superior.

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1 hour ago, USNret said:


If you can't see the difference between forex & crypto, you should not be trading.  There are virtually no similarities between the two.  I recommend for you some nice, safe municipal bonds.  

Virtually no similarities, you have to be joking.

 

There are a number of differences, but a bucket load of similarities exist, starting with a market of buyers and sellers creating price discovery based on consensus opinion.

 

One thing to remember - Religion, fiat ("normal" money) and cryptos all have one thing in common, they only work if you believe in them.

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These warnings are intended for the general public, and not the for those "in-the-know", and as such they are very useful. My guess is that after the phenomenal gains some have made during last year (and are not shy to talk about it), now is the time where a lot of people, who don't care about the technicalities, want to invest, and these are the most likely to lose a lot of money.

I've considered investing into cryptocurrencies myself, but I've come to the conclusion that I would have to spend at least 1 hour per day on the Internet, studying what's happening and shuffling my money around, otherwise I would have to decide on one currency and hope for the best. I don't have enough interest in the matter to read up on it regularly, so I didn't invest.

It's true that, as of today, there is very little practical use for cryptocurrencies, which is concerning. There are some legitimate businesses who accept payment in certain cryptos, but it's mostly used in the black and grey markets. Cryptos need to find their legitimate place in the real world, otherwise I'm not even sure if they're still gonna be around in 5-10 years.

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Despite the fact that I also assume, a lot of people might loose a lot of money with crypto currencies and sure, it's speculation ...

 

They are only trying to distract the public from the fact, that the biggest bubbles, which will end not just in a crash - but an avalanche, are created by them:

 

1) the fiat money bubble, with speculation 50 times higher than the underlying real economy - driven by artificially injection from the central banks

2) the share bubble, which is driven by the fiat money bubble, eg. "ETF" in the ridiculous high S&P500, which is founded by nothing from the fundamentals.

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Governments print pieces of paper of an assigned denomination. World exchanges then determine the value of that piece of paper relative to other countries, based on the economic performance of the country.

The main difference between the bits of paper and cryptocurrencies seems to be no-one knows who is behind the electronic coins. The bitcoin originator appears to be a phantom.

Admittedly someone who bought bitcoins in 2010 when they were 8 cents each is sitting on a fortune no matter what.

However, someone such as me should follow Rule #1 of investment - never invest in something you don't understand.

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2 hours ago, Lacessit said:

Governments print pieces of paper of an assigned denomination. World exchanges then determine the value of that piece of paper relative to other countries, based on the economic performance of the country.

The main difference between the bits of paper and cryptocurrencies seems to be no-one knows who is behind the electronic coins. The bitcoin originator appears to be a phantom.

Admittedly someone who bought bitcoins in 2010 when they were 8 cents each is sitting on a fortune no matter what.

However, someone such as me should follow Rule #1 of investment - never invest in something you don't understand.

With  a fair amount of effort and some computer skills the Bitcoin can be understood, what can't be understood is what it's going to be worth tomorrow or even 30 minutes from now. Those on here who say the bitcoin is anonymous, that's old news but as of today bitcoin ownership is a lot more traceable than you think and you can be sure the "boys in blue" can now trace most transactions, including where it came from and where it went.

 

As far as trading in a wild market, I say for those professionals who know when to buy and how to stop loss quickly the benefits of short term trading in a bumpy market can be very profitable indeed. Education is the key here, you can't expect to make money without effort. Same as a card game and as the old saw goes, know when to hold 'em and when to fold... 

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22 hours ago, impishbynature said:

Virtually no similarities, you have to be joking.

 

There are a number of differences, but a bucket load of similarities exist, starting with a market of buyers and sellers creating price discovery based on consensus opinion.

 

One thing to remember - Religion, fiat ("normal" money) and cryptos all have one thing in common, they only work if you believe in them.

I agree with you except on religion - it doesn’t work whether you believe in it or not. 

 

I find it ironic that banks say not to invest in cryptos and they are going to be a failure - and yet they create and back ripple...

 

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1 hour ago, ncc1701d said:

I find it ironic that banks say not to invest in cryptos and they are going to be a failure - and yet they create and back ripple...

 

There is a lot of confusion over craptos and the underlying blockchain technology.

 

The banks are interested in the technology for transactions. Nobody, not even I, is disputing that. But no bank has an interest in the craptos themselves except for the odd hedge fund making bets, backed by huge computing resources for scalping the victims.

 

The Ripple the platform platform is being used by Santandar as an internal experiment with staff for money transfers in real world currencies. Nothing to do with Ripple the crapto.

 

 

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38 minutes ago, 12DrinkMore said:

 

There is a lot of confusion over craptos and the underlying blockchain technology.

 

The banks are interested in the technology for transactions. Nobody, not even I, is disputing that. But no bank has an interest in the craptos themselves except for the odd hedge fund making bets, backed by huge computing resources for scalping the victims.

 

The Ripple the platform platform is being used by Santandar as an internal experiment with staff for money transfers in real world currencies. Nothing to do with Ripple the crapto.

 

 

Interesting point and I agree that banks are very interested in the transaction side of things, perhaps because they have to report to the "appropriate authorities" anything looking suspicious

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On 1/17/2018 at 3:01 PM, jesimps said:

So people don't see their money "dwindling" in stocks, or forex, or casinos, or horse racing, or football pools etc etc etc. Why stick the boot in on cryptos? Jealousy????  Let people make their own decisions and stop interferring. You remind me of my mother in law.

 

Ridiculous comparison between stock investing (equity markets) and casinos and/or gambling. Stock investment markets have been the greatest wealth creating vehicles ever. Casinos and football pools are not...and are not meant to be. When even a moron walks into a casino, they KNOW the odds of leaving with more than they came with are stacked against them. It is well know that the "house" always has the edge...the odds are always in it's favor. Not so in equity market investing. Not in the slightest.

 

Including equity markets in a comparison to gambling is utterly absurd. :post-4641-1156693976:

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3 hours ago, 12DrinkMore said:

The banks are interested in the technology for transactions. Nobody, not even I, is disputing that. But no bank has an interest in the craptos themselves except for the odd hedge fund making bets, backed by huge computing resources for scalping the victims.

 

The Ripple the platform platform is being used by Santandar as an internal experiment with staff for money transfers in real world currencies. Nothing to do with Ripple the crapto.

Actually, I would dispute that banks have a *real* interest in blockchain.

 

Blockchain is a distributed ledger with participants doing proof-of-work to be allowed to append transactions to the ledger and gets rewarded for doing this.

 

Why do banks need a distributed ledger? Most banks would prefer to keep their ledgers private. Why would they need proof-of-work when they trust each other? It just slows down the process, and as they trust each other, they can just sign messages. Why would they issue coins to unknown third parties to run their IT infrastructure? Banks want to run their own IT infrastructure for obvious reasons.

 

As for Ripple, the platform being tested/used by some financial institutions is xCurrent and has nothing to do with “blockchain technology”.

 

If banks say they are running experiments with blockchain technology, it’s most likely marketing BS.

 

Blockchain technology does *not* allow for faster transactions, on the contrary. There is zero value in blockchain technology for banks.

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40 minutes ago, lkn said:

Actually, I would dispute that banks have a *real* interest in blockchain.

 

Blockchain is a distributed ledger with participants doing proof-of-work to be allowed to append transactions to the ledger and gets rewarded for doing this.

 

Why do banks need a distributed ledger? Most banks would prefer to keep their ledgers private. Why would they need proof-of-work when they trust each other? It just slows down the process, and as they trust each other, they can just sign messages. Why would they issue coins to unknown third parties to run their IT infrastructure? Banks want to run their own IT infrastructure for obvious reasons.

 

As for Ripple, the platform being tested/used by some financial institutions is xCurrent and has nothing to do with “blockchain technology”.

 

If banks say they are running experiments with blockchain technology, it’s most likely marketing BS.

 

Blockchain technology does *not* allow for faster transactions, on the contrary. There is zero value in blockchain technology for banks.

Let's say, I bought bitcoin in Brazil 6 years ago, (wish I had), and now I'm in Thailand and sold them on a Thai exchange here, how can I prove the money in my Thai bank account came from Brazil and therefore I can take back out of Thailand as a non Thai? The bank has to be able to double check and prove that transaction was legit and indeed was from money bought in from Brazil, therefore they have to understand the block chain etc.. ... Not sure if that's clear, clear as mud maybe.

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On 1/18/2018 at 2:49 PM, wombat said:

when does the app come out that goes ka-ching on my phone every time i mine one.

Thinking u are probably joking...but have u any idea what it takes to actually "mine" a Bitcoin??? Best of luck with that! An unfathomable amount of high tech computational servers and electricity. It's truly unbelievable. :shock1:

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Intrinsically most coins have no value. ZERO. NADA. You have always remember this. There is no reason they can't just end up at zero or much, much less.

 

I say buy in and sell out when you get 10-20% return. Don't get greedy. Only leave in what you can stand to lose. Wait for news or a crash, then buy in and watch it like a hawk.

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