Brexit has created chaos in Britain – nobody voted for this

[Grouse]

2 hours ago, nauseus said:

A good job we are. 

We shall see. However, IMO, the U.K. Will soon be reapplying. It makes no sense to walk away from our benefits before the end of 2020. We gain nothing.

[Grouse]

2 hours ago, aright said:

As a fragrant Brexit maniac can I quote you Mr Junckers Debate on the State of the Union.

He said: "It is high time to bring Romania and Bulgaria into the Schengen area. And incidentally, Croatia too deserves full membership. if we want the Euro to unite our continent rather than dividing it.

"All but two member states are duty bound to join the Euro area. These member states need the support of a euro accession instrument." 

I am not insinuating we will have to join the euro but on the basis of what has been said one way or another the EU will force us to because you can't trust the buggers. See the most recent post on how trustworthy they are no. 3975

 

Thank you for admitting that you were spreading fake news. Matter closed.

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, aright said:

 

I don't mind when I consider the cost to benefit ratio. 

What cost benefit ratio? Enlighten me 

[aright]

2 minutes ago, Grouse said:

What cost benefit ratio? Enlighten me 

This one

I believe the financial benefits of leaving the EU will be substantially greater than the cost of leaving the EU  therefore is a positive benefit.

[simoh1490]

1 minute ago, aright said:

This one

I believe the financial benefits of leaving the EU will be substantially greater than the cost of leaving the EU  therefore is a positive benefit.

After how many years?

[aright]

3 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

After how many years?

I would hope 3-5 years

[CG1 Blue]

1 hour ago, simoh1490 said:

Hmmm I see, interesting, you don't know, again, in fact you don't have a clue, again!

 

So cost to benefit ratio is very low you claim, you're already up to 200 mill a week, then there's the leaving bill on top, you seem to think we're going to do a stonking amount of business once we leave, more than we've ever done before in the history of time...how does that work then our could your math be, ahem, flawed?

Team Remain, please don't start quoting this unsubstantiated 200m a week all the time. There is no evidence that Brexit has  cost the UK 200m a week.

 

 

 

[Grouse]

40 minutes ago, aright said:

"Excuse me, the cost to benefit ratio, what exactly is that ratio likely to be? "

When someone says that I know they don't understand what a cost to benefit probability analysis is. Its value is a single number derived from a ratio. I believe the financial benefits of leaving the EU will be substantially greater than the cost of leaving the EU  therefore is a positive benefit. The extent of positivity depends on outcomes and we wont know either until we leave.  If you feel differently great but my hunch is as good as yours. Go back to talking to yourself you are more interesting that way. 

Take my advice, stay clear of mathematics. Engine emission control systems are more your speciality.

[simoh1490]

Just now, aright said:

I would hope 3-5 years

I would hope to win the lottery this week!

 

3-5 years based on what things, the total cost of leaving? In simple terms, up to £39 bill., plus sunk cost of £200 mill week for x weeks, minus new trade valued over and above existing levels, divided by 36/60, how does that work...you're 'avin' a larf, aint ya!

[simoh1490]

1 minute ago, CG1 Blue said:

Team Remain, please don't start quoting this unsubstantiated 200m a week all the time. There is no evidence that Brexit has  cost the UK 200m a week.

 

 

 

Fine let's just set that aside for the moment but we may well need to come back to it again.

 

And I'm not in anybody's team.

[tebee]

3 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

Team Remain, please don't start quoting this unsubstantiated 200m a week all the time. There is no evidence that Brexit has  cost the UK 200m a week.

 

 

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-uk-economy-losses-eu-referendum-result-billions-leave-european-union-a8081841.html

[simoh1490]

1 minute ago, Grouse said:

Take my advice, stay clear of mathematics. Engine emission control systems are more your speciality.

It's a little-known fact that anthropology professors as LSE undergo extensive training in engine emission control systems, in lieu of courses in math. and economics - I was surprised to learn that.

[Grouse]

13 minutes ago, aright said:

This one

I believe the financial benefits of leaving the EU will be substantially greater than the cost of leaving the EU  therefore is a positive benefit.

As opposed to a negative benefit? Look you believe Brexit is worth it and hang the cost. OK, we understand

[tebee]

17 minutes ago, aright said:

This one

I believe the financial benefits of leaving the EU will be substantially greater than the cost of leaving the EU  therefore is a positive benefit.

Where exactly do you see these financial benefits of leaving the EU coming from?

 

I've not seen one substantiated benefit attributable to that yet?  

[aright]

6 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Fine let's just set that aside for the moment but we may well need to come back to it again.

 

And I'm not in anybody's team.

Only because no one wants you

[simoh1490]

2 minutes ago, aright said:

Only because no one wants you

That hurts, below the belt, I feel unloved and unwanted, sniffle sniffle.

 

Now, where were we> Ah yes, you were about to tell us about this payback thingy and how it's going to work, we're waiting.

[simoh1490]

4 minutes ago, tebee said:

Where exactly do you see these financial benefits of leaving the EU coming from?

 

I've not seen one substantiated benefit attributable to that yet?  

They come from dark places, holes that are deep and dark, you wouldn't want to examine too closely. 

[tebee]

1 minute ago, simoh1490 said:

They come from dark places, holes that are deep and dark, you wouldn't want to examine too closely. 

Oh I don't know, I've got quite a liking for dark holes.....

 

Usually quite happy to examine them very closely, sometimes even to explore them...

 

Have even got out alive sometimes.

 

[simoh1490]

1 minute ago, tebee said:

Oh I don't know, I've got quite a liking for dark holes.....

 

Usually quite happy to examine them very closely, sometimes even to explore them...

 

Have even got out alive sometimes.

 

I'm not talking spelunking here, up to you, however.

[tebee]

You are in a maze of twisty little  passages, all alike...

 

 

[aright]

17 minutes ago, tebee said:

Where exactly do you see these financial benefits of leaving the EU coming from?

 

I've not seen one substantiated benefit attributable to that yet?  

Mainly on GDP gains on new trade deals with non EU countries. That's 80% of the global market. 

Possible custom union or single market deals with new partners like Australia or Canada.

Control over fishing rights which will substantially increase the profitability of our fishing industry.

Greater trading opportunities for our small to medium companies hampered by EU rules.

[talahtnut]

8 minutes ago, tebee said:

You are in a maze of twisty little  passages, all alike...

 

 

Quite an accurate psychoanalysis.

[CG1 Blue]

1 hour ago, tebee said:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-uk-economy-losses-eu-referendum-result-billions-leave-european-union-a8081841.html

These think tanks get very excited when they find a way to project numbers that feed their bias.

 

The CEPR is funded by central banks and financial institutions. The independent is fiercely anti-Brexit. Please try harder!

 

P.S., take a look at the Cambridge JBS report on these think tanks.  Here's a snippet for you:

 

"Most estimates of the economic impact of Brexit are based on inappropriate applications of “gravity” models of trade and on a “knock-on” impact on productivity which probably does not exist.

In each case the effect is to exaggerate the negative economic impact of Brexit.

This is likely to be a result of a mix of unconscious bias and political expectations and perhaps a degree of group-think."

 

 

Edited April 13, 2018 by CG1 Blue

[talahtnut]

13 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

These think tanks get very excited when they find a way to project numbers that feed their bias.

 

The CEPR is funded by central banks and financial institutions. The independent is fiercely anti-Brexit. Please try harder!

 

P.S., take a look at the Cambridge JBS report on these think tanks.  Here's a snippit for you:

 

"Most estimates of the economic impact of Brexit are based on inappropriate applications of “gravity” models of trade and on a “knock-on” impact on productivity which probably does not exist.

In each case the effect is to exaggerate the negative economic impact of Brexit.

This is likely to be a result of a mix of unconscious bias and political expectations and perhaps a degree of group-think."

 

 

Groups of very bright people can be collectively stupid (a phenomena Irving L. Janis called "groupthink")‐‐whereas very ordinary or dull people can,under the right circumstances, generate real wisdom.

[aright]

You don’t get all the benefits outside the single market it’s true, but there will be new benefits to be reaped by these new opportunities

Kate Andrews

 

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/945449/brexit-news-BBC-Question-Time-EU-divorce-free-trade-deals-customs-union-single-market

[tebee]

28 minutes ago, aright said:

Mainly on GDP gains on new trade deals with non EU countries. That's 80% of the global market. 

Possible custom union or single market deals with new partners like Australia or Canada.

Control over fishing rights which will substantially increase the profitability of our fishing industry.

Greater trading opportunities for our small to medium companies hampered by EU rules.

What about the loss of trade with EU countries ? Not to mention the decimation of our overseas service industries .

The Fishing industry is tiny,  0.07% of GDP,  Even doubling that is not going to make a great difference. Source http://www.mseproject.net/data-sources/doc_download/122-8-fishing-and-uk-gdp

Small to medium companies are scared Sh*tless about leaving the EU. I ran one, but see also http://the.48andbeyond.co.uk/2018/02/why-brexit-will-devastate-uk.html

 

 

[simoh1490]

Mmmmm, The Express, Brexit Central! 

[siamcrut]

Of course you voted for that!

[siamcrut]

It’s that simple.

[aright]

2 minutes ago, tebee said:

What about the loss of trade with EU countries ? Not to mention the decimation of our overseas service industries .

The Fishing industry is tiny,  0.07% of GDP,  Even doubling that is not going to make a great difference. Source http://www.mseproject.net/data-sources/doc_download/122-8-fishing-and-uk-gdp

Small to medium companies are scared Sh*tless about leaving the EU. I ran one, but see also http://the.48andbeyond.co.uk/2018/02/why-brexit-will-devastate-uk.html

 

 

I don't believe there will be a loss of trade with the EU we are as important a market to them as they are to us. We were maybe still are the largest purchasers of Mercedes in the EU outside of Germany. Not a market they would want to loose I would have thought.

I own 2 small-medium businesses with my main market the UK and secondary Germany and France. On the basis of what I feel and what my European customers tell me I don't expect my sales to change. On the basis of my UK business contacts I would say there are marginally more happy(I didn't say ecstatic ) punters than apprehensive. I don't know of anyone who is terrified.

I see Brexit as a great opportunity for all business in the UK providing they grasp it with both hands.  Of course I accept it won't all be plain sailing.