4 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Morning all!

 

TM is now saying we need to remain in the CU after Dec 2021, possibly for 12 months.

 

She will also appoint 20 new Tory peers undercover of the Royal wedding

 

Radio 4

 

Bye, for now! I'll drop in to see if there is some informed discussion later ?

If TM continues on her current route extending the CU to 2023  how far can we be from the chronometer chiming Mogg-o-Clock resulting in a leadership challenge  and likely another General Election.

Who knows which way the Labour party will go on the EU but they will certainly supply the electorate with 5 or 6 years of Marxist fiscal destruction. It would be foolish to rely on the electorate rejecting the least suitable candidate.  

6 minutes ago, aright said:

If TM continues on her current route extending the CU to 2023  how far can we be from the chronometer chiming Mogg-o-Clock resulting in a leadership challenge  and likely another General Election.

Who knows which way the Labour party will go on the EU but they will certainly supply the electorate with 5 or 6 years of Marxist fiscal destruction. It would be foolish to rely on the electorate rejecting the least suitable candidate.  

Correct! And neither JRM or JC is a joyful prospect ?

 

We really need to change our FPtP system. We have two extremes, NEITHER having the interests of average people at heart.

1 hour ago, soalbundy said:

Because the opinion of a large proportion isn't considered valid, yes they had the right to vote but the win margin was so small in percentage values as to be meaningless, hence the division. It doesn't matter, in terms of feelings, that the majority won because the result was not what one could call overwhelming, it doesn't matter what the botched terms of the referendum say, fact is you have a split nation because of this very reason. A second referendum could bring a decisive victory for leave which would heal the rift.The remainers may of course win, whatever, the margin should be decisive. If it's not ? well the process has been started on the first vote and should continue but the rift is there.

 

Well my ‘ol soaldbundy, where to start with this comment because you have now enshrined waffling into a creed

 

“the win margin was so small in percentage values as to be meaningless”  …….. well it was large enough to trigger the government’s invocation of article 50 and start the process of the UK leaving the EU, so we obviously disagree on the definition of the word ‘meaningless’

 

“it doesn't matter what the botched terms of the referendum say”  ……… well you have completely lost me with that one, the terms of the referendum were clearly set out in a leaflet that was delivered to every UK household; the leaflet that also advised the electorate to vote remain in the EU.

 

“the margin should be decisive”  ……. it was, why can't you understand that ??

 

If you are going to use words like ‘conclusive’ and ‘disenfranchised’ you should use them in a way that is contextually correct. If you do not understand the meaning of them, I would politely suggest that it is prudent not to use them at all, because the incorrect use of words has the opposite effect to the impact that you thought they would make.

1 hour ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Should have been since it was a 'constitutional vote' so to speak 50% of the registered electorate for a win - the stay at homes being counted as acquiescing in the status quo. Simples why arrogant Cameron never did that I don't know but we are all living to regret it. 

 

I think you misunderstand the voting terms of the referendum. It was a majority to win, which could not have been 50% …. a majority means more than 50%.

 

……also,  it was not a percentage of the registered electorate, but a percentage of the registered and eligible electorate that chose to exercise their right to vote.

 

….. also, we are not all living to regret it, so please don't speak for all, only for yourself and  those that you represent

I think you could also add to your stats the result of the referendum was accepted by a democratically elected Government which asked a democratically elected House of Commons for approval to trigger Article 50 which was overwhelmingly endorsed by democratically elected MP's. 

http://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/article/brexit-serious-damage-to-britain#_=_

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

No; the status quo ante has precedence unless there is a super majority. 

Ok, so the status quo ante (before the 2nd referendum) would be we are leaving the EU, having triggered article 50 already. So without a super majority for Remain we carry on then - right?

2 hours ago, nontabury said:

 Just check out the figures. E.U citizens gain far more financial help from the U.K.

         ——————-

 

In what one MP described as a "scandalous failure", it has emerged that the UK pays more than £670m to EU countries for Brits' healthcare abroad, while claiming back less than £50m from the EU, even though there are significantly more EU citizens in the UK than UK citizens in the EU.

 

     —————-

 and in addition many E.U countries charge the U.K for British citizens,who use their A+ E departments. While the U.K. for some strange reason do not charge foreign national.

 

is this another case of those stupid Brits?

 

 

And since we can all google soundbites mindlessly I thought I'd join in the fun...

 

22 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

I know immediately this is BS, because Farage didn't try to get a German passport after the EU referendum. He has 2 kids with dual nationality from his marriage with a German.

You should really double check for fake news before posting memes.

24 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

And since we can all google soundbites mindlessly I thought I'd join in the fun...

 

 

3 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

I know immediately this is BS, because Farage didn't try to get a German passport after the EU referendum. He has 2 kids with dual nationality from his marriage with a German.

You should really double check for fake news before posting memes.

Ha ha .... a remainer check for fake news ..... ha ha ha .... ****** brilliant 

1 hour ago, CG1 Blue said:

I know immediately this is BS, because Farage didn't try to get a German passport after the EU referendum. He has 2 kids with dual nationality from his marriage with a German.

You should really double check for fake news before posting memes.

err not so quickly we're not talking about his kids but about him  - fake news call unproven. ! Anyway I wouldn't believe a word that comes out of his fag stinking EU-pensioned mouth and getting Eu passports for his kids personally - jeez how much do they have to rub your noses in the dirt before you get you are being played. 

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/is-nigel-farage-applying-for-german-citizenship-brexit-consequences-ukip-europe/

2 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

err not so quickly we're not talking about his kids but about him  - fake news call unproven. !

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/is-nigel-farage-applying-for-german-citizenship-brexit-consequences-ukip-europe/

I assume you are joking? That link doesn't prove anything - so you must be joking.  Surely

1 minute ago, CG1 Blue said:

I assume you are joking? That link doesn't prove anything - so you must be joking.  Surely

Not joking as such but being lazy with my research - my smearing point above still stands though. Daddy wants his ridiculed Eu passports for his kids - nice work if you can get it. What's wrong with the classic blue one's made in France that are coming soon ?

4 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

 

You lucky fella you've got a rich country - the same amount of oil and gas as the UK but 1/10th of the population. And a strong currency. 

The Noggies have a lot more O&G.

 

And before I get binned again "Noggies" is a term of endearment!

21 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Not joking as such but being lazy with my research - my smearing point above still stands though. Daddy wants his ridiculed Eu passports for his kids - nice work if you can get it. What's wrong with the classic blue one's made in France that are coming soon ?

So you're saying Nigel Farage tried to get a German passport, but you have no proof, but it's still true?

You're not a lawyer I hope...

6 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

So you're saying Nigel Farage tried to get a German passport, but you have no proof, but it's still true?

You're not a lawyer I hope...

steady there there's the Brexit bus cak pile lies for starters....

1 minute ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

steady there there's the Brexit bus cak pile lies for starters....

Farage had nothing to do with the Brexit bus.  That was Boris and the Vote Leave team.

 

Research really isn't your thing is it

Sent from my iPhone using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

8 hours ago, transam said:

Yet the UK DOES take care of Thais who have paid sod all with your contributions...

 

Yet when I die my state pension dies with me so my Thai wife gets nothing.

 

How does that work with what you posted?

Looks like everybody has started drinking  

1 minute ago, billd766 said:

 

Yet when I die my state pension dies with me so my Thai wife gets nothing.

 

How does that work with what you posted?

I've just paid 4 years NI contributions to get her over the 10 year limit to get 25% of the state pension. Less than 10 and you get nothing unless of course you have nothing then you get benefits. 

5 hours ago, soalbundy said:

So you aren't worried about a second referendum then ? After all a decisive vote to leave could only strengthen the leave faction in parliament and make the negotiations far easier for the UK.

 

But if ther remainers won then that would allow the Brexiteers to demand a third referendum. If we win then the Remainers will demand another, ad nauseum.

4 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Should have been since it was a 'constitutional vote' so to speak 50% of the registered electorate for a win - the stay at homes being counted as acquiescing in the status quo. Simples why arrogant Cameron never did that I don't know but we are all living to regret it. 

 

Why? They had exactly the same chance to vote as everybody else.

 

An X in the box is all that counted.

 

No X means NO vote, which left it between those who could be bothered to vote.

 

Brexit won, Remainers lost.

 

Sad for the losers. Tough on those that didn't vote.

38 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

So you're saying Nigel Farage tried to get a German passport, but you have no proof, but it's still true?

You're not a lawyer I hope...

His ex?wife is German and I believe two of his children have German passports,let's not let the truth get in the way of a good story,he was there to get a passport 

2 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

 

YOU can change your mind if you wish.

 

I voted for Brexit and have NO intention of changing my mind.

1 hour ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

err not so quickly we're not talking about his kids but about him  - fake news call unproven. ! Anyway I wouldn't believe a word that comes out of his fag stinking EU-pensioned mouth and getting Eu passports for his kids personally - jeez how much do they have to rub your noses in the dirt before you get you are being played. 

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/is-nigel-farage-applying-for-german-citizenship-brexit-consequences-ukip-europe/

 

So why do you think people will believe the words that come out of your mouth?

21 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Looks like everybody has started drinking  

I've just paid 4 years NI contributions to get her over the 10 year limit to get 25% of the state pension. Less than 10 and you get nothing unless of course you have nothing then you get benefits. 

 

Well good for you.

 

I paid 44 years contributions and got a frozen pension out of it.

3 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

Ok, so the status quo ante (before the 2nd referendum) would be we are leaving the EU, having triggered article 50 already. So without a super majority for Remain we carry on then - right?

No, not really. Droll comment but you get the point. With constitutional issues, unless there is a super majority, one side never gives up and you end up with civil war

 

I recall long discussions on here, in the months leading up to the referendum, about the pros and cons. Sadly, everything has become so polarised that intellectual debate is now almost impossible. 

I have a feeling things have changed this week with Brexit. In the years to come (if anyone can be bothered) we’ll likely look back on this week as the week that Brexit 1.0 (The 3 Red Lines) expired. However it’s choreographed, unless there is a major political event in the next few lines (eg. all the Brexit ministers resigning), we are likely headed for a much longer stand-still transition. I appreciate that’s not how the current bout of political wriggling is being badged (a Customs Union partial regulatory whole UK thingummybob) but that’s the likelihood, and once we’re in a much longer continuity period (albeit without representation), whither the grand Brexit plan?

Time will tell but the probability of a swashbuckling, free-trading, buccaneering, clean break has faded to virtual insignificance. So what’s happened? After all, we’ve spent the last year being told repeatedly that Brexit means Brexit means the 3 Red Lines Brexit and any other Brexit simply isn’t Brexit.

A good argument is that the current Brexit plan was fatally flawed from the moment the words ‘3 red lines’ were uttered (let’s call it Lancaster House for convenience), the magnificent irony is that the fatal flaw wasn’t so much the red lines themselves (after all, we could have drifted into a somnolent autarky), but the insistence that this recast relationship with the EU could be easily accompanied by a frictionless economic relationship that would preserve the benefits of the SM.

 

This objective, a foundational underpinning of the Vote Leave campaign (like so much else of Lancaster House), has proved to be unachievable. This should not be a surprise. An economic relationship founded on recognition vs harmonisation was sufficiently inimical to the Single Market to be rejected immediately, in addition to this fundamental flaw, there have been a series of tactical blunders that have made an already difficult situation impossible. As many have said, the decision to start the A50 clock not just without a plan, but with a series of objectives that were unachievable seems to have been uniquely designed to undermine an already weak negotiating position. The snap GE result has been perhaps the highest (lowest?) moment of self-owning farce, managing to combine fantastical objectives and a weak external negotiating position with the loss of the Parliamentary majority.

Surely, this should have been the moment for the govt to change it’s Brexit course. But, no, the govt’s inability to of its own volition materially change course away from the 3 red lines is one of the most striking aspects of the Brexit 1.0 debacle. Why? The conflation of the 3 Red Lines Brexit with the success of Brexit (ie no other Brexit counts) - a huge tactical mistake. In effect, the govt managed to tie itself so firmly to this specific Brexit, that it became virtually impossible to shift position unless (effectively) forced by the EU. The worst of all possible worlds.

The final irony is that by pursuing a hard Brexit that was never going to work, the govt has managed to conjure an outcome uniquely unappealing to both Remainers and Leavers. And so, our relationship with the EU, the great issue of our time meant to have been resolved by the referendum, will now be even more confused than ever. The country is divided, nothing is resolved.

Expect another referendum, whether it’s in the next 6 months,  in two years or 5 years.