Italy elections deliver hung parliament, gridlock - exit polls

[webfact]

Italy elections deliver hung parliament, gridlock - exit polls

By Crispian Balmer and Gavin Jones

 

5-Star Movement founder Beppe Grillo (L) speaks next leader Luigi Di Maio during the finally rally ahead of the March 4 elections in downtown Rome, Italy, March 2, 2018. REUTERS/Tony Gentile

 

ROME (Reuters) - Italy's national election produced no outright winner on Sunday, according to exit polls that pointed to possible political gridlock, with voters backing anti-establishment and far-right parties in record numbers.

 

A rightist alliance emerged with the biggest bloc of votes, ahead of the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement, the largest single party, polls showed. The ruling centre-left coalition came third, hurt by anger over poverty and mass immigration.

 

Full results are not expected for several hours, and Italian exit polls have previously given misleading initial readings.

 

Heavily indebted Italy is the third largest economy in the euro zone and prolonged political stalemate could make it the focal point of market concern now that the threat of instability in Germany has receded thanks to the revival on Sunday of a grand coalition under Chancellor Angela Merkel.

 

The euro edged marginally higher in Asia early on Monday, with investors awaiting clearer results from Italy.

 

A poll for RAI state television said a bloc of centre-right and far-right parties would win 33-36 percent of the vote, short of the 40 percent analysts have said is the minimum needed to secure a majority under Italy's new electoral law.

 

Within the alliance, former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia (Go Italy!) was seen winning 12.5-15.5 percent, the same as the League, which has allied itself to anti-immigration, anti-Islam parties across Europe.

 

The 5-Star, led by 31-year-old Luigi Di Maio, was forecast to take 29.0-32.5 percent, which would be a remarkable result for a group that was only formed in 2009. It has fed off public fury over entrenched corruption and economic hardship.

 

"We will be a pillar of the legislature," said a smiling Alfonso Bonafede, a close ally of Di Maio, told La7.

 

A centre-left alliance dominated by former prime minister Matteo Renzi's ruling Democratic Party (PD) was projected to win 25-28 percent, but pollsters said the PD itself might end up only the fourth-largest group in the lower house of parliament.

 

"If this is the result, for us it is a defeat and we will move into the opposition," said PD lower house leader Ettore Rosato.

 

STALEMATE

 

During two months of grinding election campaigning, party leaders repeatedly ruled out any post-election tie-ups with rivals. However, Italy has a long history of finding a way out of apparently intractable political stalemate.

 

Parliament will meet for the first time on March 23 and formal talks on forming a government are not likely to start until early April.

 

Financial markets have appeared little concerned by the Italian ballot, but investors are likely to take fright at any suggestion the 5-Star could form a coalition with the League.

 

Exit polls suggested the two forces would have enough seats to govern together and they have in the past shared strong anti-euro views.

 

While the League still says it wants to leave the single currency at the earliest feasible moment, the 5-Star says the time for quitting the euro has passed.

 

Founded by comedian Beppe Grillo, 5-Star has sought to allay fears in EU capitals over its policies, dropping some of its more radical proposals, like leaving NATO, and promising to be business-friendly if they win power.

 

It has always shunned the idea of entering any formal coalition. During the campaign, Di Maio said he would seek cross-party support for his programme, which includes "drastic" cuts to corporate taxes, slashing red tape and guaranteeing a minimum monthly income of up to 780 euros (£698) for the poor.

 

This so-called "Universal Wage" has helped the party draw massive support in the underdeveloped south, with pollsters predicting the 5-Star could sweep most first-past-the-post seats in regions below Rome.

 

By contrast, Berlusconi and his far-right, populist allies were expected to win the majority of seats in the wealthier north, with the centre-left squeezed into a narrow stretch of territory across central Italy, including Tuscany.

 

Populist parties have been on the rise across Europe since the 2008 financial crisis. Italy's mainstream parties have found it especially hard to contain voter anger, with the economy still 6 percent smaller than a decade ago and unemployment stuck at about 11 percent.

 

For the graphic 'Italy's election', click - http://tmsnrt.rs/2BNVobt 

 

(Additional reporting by Isla Binnie and Steve Scherer in Rome; Editing by Mark Bendeich)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2018-03-05

[GaryAdriaenssens]

Not much will happen, you'll see. What has to happen, asked by the voters, rarely happens. In the meantime most Italians will keep on suffering or try to make ends meet. And that EU monster in Brussels keeps dictating their fascist policies. Everywhere the same, these parties only care for the people when they need votes, once in power and voters don't exist anymore. Poor Italy and Europe, it's a sinking ship!!

[RichardColeman]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

Populist parties have been on the rise across Europe since the 2008 financial crisis.

Hmm. If it wasn't popular it would not increase, but hey, maybe I'm a bit daft !

[Laughing Gravy]

I will be waiting for the liberals and EU how nobody won so the populist and far right have been defeated and the EU doesn't need to change. So right of the politics parties took over 66% of the vote. I can't see them joining together but if this doesn't make Brussels wake up and reaslise that they have created a mess in Europe with their immigration policy. Then again that was the plan all along.

[malagateddy]

Italian anti eu parties..way to go[emoji6]

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[dick dasterdly]

32 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

I will be waiting for the liberals and EU how nobody won so the populist and far right have been defeated and the EU doesn't need to change. So right of the politics parties took over 66% of the vote. I can't see them joining together but if this doesn't make Brussels wake up and reaslise that they have created a mess in Europe with their immigration policy. Then again that was the plan all along.

 

11 minutes ago, malagateddy said:

Italian anti eu parties..way to go

Sent from my SM-G7102 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

Quite...

 

Whilst I have no time for the 'right/left wing' terminology (it's mainly poor voters that are voting 'incorrectly'....), it's becoming increasingly apparent that the poor are sick and tired of the status quo.  And that includes their own politicians along with eu politicians/eu bureaucracy.

[mfd101]

Sigh, yet another once-beautiful 'Western' country slowly flushing itself down the toilet.

 

How many times have the electorate already voted their very own Donald Berlusconi into power? 3 times during the 90s & more recently, for a total of 9 years. This is not a serious country, or a serious electorate.

 

I think that they - not Brussels - are responsible for their own pathetic performances on many many fronts - economic, social, security, though I do recognize that they are in the front line of the losing European battle to control their borders.

[ilostmypassword]

1 minute ago, mfd101 said:

Sigh, yet another once-beautiful 'Western' country slowly flushing itself down the toilet.

 

How many times have the electorate already voted their very own Donald Berlusconi into power? 3 times during the 90s & more recently, for a total of 9 years. This is not a serious country, or a serious electorate.

 

I think that they - not Brussels - are responsible for their own pathetic performances on many many fronts - economic, social, security, though I do recognize that they are in the front line of the losing European battle to control their borders.

I think that they have a legitimate complaint about the Euro. And also a legitimate complaint about migrants. The EU should be providing these front line states with funding to help them cope with the influx. 

[simple1]

"migrants' are more profitable than drugs'. How the mafia infiltrated Italy's asylum system.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/feb/01/migrants-more-profitable-than-drugs-how-mafia-infiltrated-italy-asylum-system

 

How many of the ideologues in Italy are funded / associated with the mafia? The Five Star Movement has mafia links, how much of the rhetoric is in fact a blind?

[anon789561]

Interesting result, thought not a surprise. looks to me like it won't be long before Italy decides to leave the EU 

[dick dasterdly]

2 minutes ago, simple1 said:

"migrants' are more profitable than drugs'. How the mafia infiltrated Italy's asylum system.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/feb/01/migrants-more-profitable-than-drugs-how-mafia-infiltrated-italy-asylum-system

 

How many of the ideologues in Italy are funded / associated with the mafia? The Five Star Movement has mafia links, how much of the rhetoric is in fact a blind?

Everyone knows that the Italian hierarchy/politicians are even more corrupt than other eu countries.  Or perhaps more obviously corrupt?

 

Even so, if the poll exit results turn out to be correct, it's hardly an endorsement for the eu...

[webfact]

Italy faces political gridlock as 5-Star surges in election

By Crispian Balmer and Isla Binnie

 

FILE PHOTO: A man stands to look electoral posters in Pomigliano D'Arco, near Naples, Italy, February 21, 2018. REUTERS/Alessandro Bianchi/File Photo

 

ROME (Reuters) - Italy faces a prolonged period of political instability after voters delivered a hung parliament in Sunday's election, spurning traditional parties and flocking to anti-establishment and far-right groups in record numbers.

 

With half the ballot counted, it looked almost certain that none of Italy's three main factions would be able to rule alone and there was little prospect of a return to mainstream government, giving the European Union a new headache to handle.

 

Scenarios now include the creation of a more euro-sceptic coalition, which would likely challenge EU budget restrictions and be little interested in further European integration, or swift new elections to try to break the deadlock.

 

A rightist alliance including former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia (Go Italy!) emerged with the biggest bloc of votes, ahead of the anti-system 5-Star Movement, which saw its support soar to become Italy's largest single party.

 

Despite overseeing a modest economic recovery, the ruling centre-left coalition came a distant third, hit by widespread anger over persistent poverty, high unemployment and an influx of more than 600,000 migrants over the past four years.

 

The full result is not due until much later on Monday.

 

A prolonged political stalemate could make heavily indebted Italy the focus of market concern in Europe, now that the threat of German instability has receded after the revival on Sunday of a grand coalition under Chancellor Angela Merkel.

 

The euro dipped in Asia early on Monday and remained prone to volatility as investors awaited final results.

 

"Italy is far from having sorted its long-standing problems, and now it will have new ones. Be prepared for long and complex negotiations that will take months," said Lorenzo Codogno, a former chief economist at the Italian Treasury.

 

Berlusconi's centre-right alliance was seen taking around 37 percent of the vote and in a bitter personal defeat for the billionaire media magnate, his Forza Italia party was overtaken by its ally, the far-right, anti-immigrant League.

 

"My first words: THANK YOU," League leader Matteo Salvini tweeted. His party, which campaigned on a fiercely anti-migrant ticket, looked set to win more than 17 percent of the vote against just 4 percent at the last national election in 2013.

 

But the biggest winner on Sunday was the 5-Star Movement, which was predicted to have won a third of all votes cast, up from 25 percent last time around, putting it in the driving seat in any future coalition talks.

 

"Nobody will be able to govern without the 5-Star Movement," said senior party member Riccardo Fraccaro. "We will assume the responsibility to build this government, but in a different way, talking with all the parties about what this country needs."

 

The ruling centre-left bloc was seen on around 22 percent.

 

"ITALY UNGOVERNABLE"

 

During two months of election campaigning, party leaders repeatedly ruled out any post-election tie-ups with their rivals. However, Italy has a long history of finding a way out of apparently intractable political stalemate.

 

The 5-Star once rejected talk of any power sharing, but it has since modified its position and says it is willing to discuss common policies but not negotiate over cabinet posts.

 

Led by 31-year-old Luigi Di Maio, the movement was formed in 2009 and has fed off public fury over corruption in the Italian establishment and economic hardship. But some analysts have questioned whether other parties would be able to work with it.

 

"Di Maio wins, Italy ungovernable," was the front page headline on the first edition of La Stampa newspaper.

 

Parliament will meet for the first time on March 23 and President Sergio Mattarella is not expected to open formal talks on forming a government until early April.

 

Pollster Federico Benini, head of the Winpoll agency, said vote projections suggested that 5-Star and the League would be the largest two parties in parliament and would comfortably have enough seats to govern together if they wanted.

 

They once shared strong anti-euro views. But while the League still says it wants to leave the single currency at the earliest feasible moment, the 5-Star has since softened its tone, saying the time for quitting the euro has passed.

 

Its flagship proposal in the election campaign was a promise to introduce a minimum monthly income of up to 780 euros (698 pounds) for the poor. This so-called "Universal Wage" has helped the party draw massive support in the underdeveloped south.

 

By contrast, Berlusconi and his far-right, populist allies were expected to dominate in the wealthier north, with the centre-left squeezed into a narrow stretch of territory across central Italy, including Tuscany.

 

"We did not anticipate this radicalisation of the electorate who have turned for solutions to the 5-Star and League. We are going to have to reflect on this and find a response," said senior PD politician Ettore Rosato.

 

None of the major party leaders spoke in public on Sunday night as they awaited the final results. There was much speculation that the PD leader, former prime minister Matteo Renzi, would step down.

 

Populist parties have been on the rise across Europe since the 2008 financial crisis. Italy's mainstream parties have found it especially hard to contain voter anger, with the economy still 6 percent smaller than a decade ago and unemployment stuck at about 11 percent.

 

(Additional reporting by Gavin Jones, Francesca Piscioneri and Giselda Vagnoni)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2018-03-05

[dick dasterdly]

"We did not anticipate this radicalisation of the electorate who have turned for solutions to the 5-Star and League. We are going to have to reflect on this and find a response," said senior PD politician Ettore Rosato."

A great afterthought - which has left many countries' politicians wondering 'how the hell did this happen?'

 

The majority of the poor have finally 'wised up' to media and politician spin - and are voting to show their displeasure.

 

 

 

 

[Grouse]

So, TV "Brains Trust" is out in force with the usual in depth analysis ?

 

Here's some food for thought, Italian manufacturing accounts for 16% of their GDP compared to 9% for the U.K. 

 

The UK economy is bigger at 2.4 T USD compared to 1.8 T USD. So the actual size of the  Italian manufacturing industry is about a third larger than the UK

 

UK GDP per person is about 43k USD per person compared to 37k USD per person in Italy. (global average is 15.3k)

 

UK population of 66M exceeds Italy by 10% (60M)

 

But Gini coefficients show that Italy has MUCH greater equality than the UK (similar to France and Germany in that respect) and no where near the obscene levels of inequality found in the USA.

 

5 Star advocates essentially giving everyone their old age pension from age 18. What's not to like? They are taking seriously automation, AI, robotics and de-manning of agriculture. It needs thinking about

 

If Labour offered the same, they would get in right?

 

Italy is of course different but faces similar issues to the UK. Interesting that they have a much stronger industrial performance despite being in the Euro.

 

We should notice their better equality and take notice of 4 star's idea for a minimum income for all. Let the machines and computers do the work! Basta!

Edited March 5, 2018 by Grouse

[dick dasterdly]

Just now, Grouse said:

So, TV "Brains Trust" is out in force with the usual in depth analysis ?

 

Here's some food for thought, Italian manufacturing accounts for 16% of their GDP compared to 9% for the U.K. 

 

The UK economy is bigger at 2.4 T USD compared to 1.8 T USD. So the actual size of the  Italian manufacturing industry is about a third larger than the UK

 

5 Star advocates essentially giving everyone their old age pension from age 18. What's not to like? They are taking seriously automation, AI, robotics and de-manning of agriculture. It needs thinking about

 

If Labour offered the same, they would get in right?

And of course, the usual 'brains trust' that will argue black is white....

 

Perhaps you've missed that the Italians have voted in large numbers for anti-eu parties?

[Grouse]

17 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

And of course, the usual 'brains trust' that will argue black is white....

 

Perhaps you've missed that the Italians have voted in large numbers for anti-eu parties?

Give us s break down of the % of parties who say they wish to leave the EU! Then go and re-read my piece which is updated ?

[Grouse]

https://www.economist.com/news/europe/21737971-coalition-negotiations-could-now-take-many-weeks-five-star-movement-does-best-no-one-wins

 

As always, go to The Economist for the facts.

 

Five Star do not want out of the EU, they want Brussels to do more, not less!

 

Not everything in Europe is about the EU ?

[tifino]

and I guess it's not even a case; for 'which' one the Army would kick out?

[Grouse]

20 hours ago, malagateddy said:

Italian anti eu parties..way to go

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Eurosceptic but no desire to leave the EU. Subtleties not your thing?

[champers]

6 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Eurosceptic but no desire to leave the EU. Subtleties not your thing?

No desire to leave the EU, which will have to prop up this political and economic basket case. Or, to be more precise, Germany and France will have to prop it up, moreso now that UK are leaving.

[malagateddy]

You know i am hardline brexiteer..just happy italian people gave 2 fingers to brussels

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[simple1]

19 hours ago, dick dasterdly said:

The majority of the poor have finally 'wised up' to media and politician spin - and are voting to show their displeasure

You reacon? More like feed BS baffles brains. Anyone who votes for single issue / far right parties as the path for the future are seriously delusional.

[ilostmypassword]

2 hours ago, champers said:

No desire to leave the EU, which will have to prop up this political and economic basket case. Or, to be more precise, Germany and France will have to prop it up, moreso now that UK are leaving.

To date, Italy has been a net contributor to the EU. And its economy is growing again.

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, malagateddy said:

You know i am hardline brexiteer..just happy italian people gave 2 fingers to brussels

Sent from my SM-G7102 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

You really should read up a little more; or go shopping

[malagateddy]

Whatever you say

JRM FOR PM

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[dick dasterdly]

23 hours ago, dick dasterdly said:

 

Quite...

 

Whilst I have no time for the 'right/left wing' terminology (it's mainly poor voters that are voting 'incorrectly'....), it's becoming increasingly apparent that the poor are sick and tired of the status quo.  And that includes their own politicians along with eu politicians/eu bureaucracy.

 

20 hours ago, dick dasterdly said:

"We did not anticipate this radicalisation of the electorate who have turned for solutions to the 5-Star and League. We are going to have to reflect on this and find a response," said senior PD politician Ettore Rosato."

A great afterthought - which has left many countries' politicians wondering 'how the hell did this happen?'

 

The majority of the poor have finally 'wised up' to media and politician spin - and are voting to show their displeasure.

 

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, simple1 said:

You reacon? More like feed BS baffles brains. Anyone who votes for single issue / far right parties as the path for the future are seriously delusional.

Sadly, insulting voters that dared to vote against the 'establishment' and 'for' euro-sceptic parties has become the 'norm' nowadays.....

 

I'm far from an 'expert' on Italy's politics, but I gather the Five Star party are not far-right.

 

Agree entirely when it comes to "More like feed BS baffles brains" - but from the opposite angle..... 

[dick dasterdly]

2 hours ago, malagateddy said:

You know i am hardline brexiteer..just happy italian people gave 2 fingers to brussels

Sent from my SM-G7102 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

And, of course, the current ruling elite in Italy.

 

It's a theme nowadays.  The populace have had enough of the 'ruling elite', and are voting accordingly.

 

Regardless of one's sympathies, this is probably good - as it forces politicians to start thinking about why the poor are voting against the status quo.  Perhaps things will change to a small extent? 

[simple1]

19 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

 

 

Sadly, insulting voters that dared to vote against the 'establishment' and 'for' euro-sceptic parties has become the 'norm' nowadays.....

 

I'm far from an 'expert' on Italy's politics, but I gather the Five Star party are not far-right.

 

Agree entirely when it comes to "More like feed BS baffles brains" - but from the opposite angle..... 

LOL - the weight of insulting behaviour is firmly on the side of the hard right - denying this truth is a favorite meme of such groups.

 

Five Star aligns with fascist ideals (e.g. blocked banning the fascist salute), supports Putin,  as well as The League which absolutely is far right. Up to you and others keeping your mind firmly closed to the reality of destructive forces which eventually will be unleashed by voting dictators in sheep's clothing into power.

Edited March 6, 2018 by simple1

[dick dasterdly]

2 hours ago, simple1 said:

You reacon? More like feed BS baffles brains. Anyone who votes for single issue / far right parties as the path for the future are seriously delusional.

 

53 minutes ago, simple1 said:

LOL - the weight of insulting behaviour is firmly on the side of the hard right - denying this truth is a favorite meme of such groups.

 

Five Star aligns with fascist ideals (e.g. blocked banning the fascist salute), supports Putin,  as well as The League which absolutely is far right. Up to you and others keeping your mind firmly closed to the reality of destructive forces which eventually will be unleashed by voting dictators in sheep's clothing into power.

Have you read the brexit threads?  I can assure you that the insults are pretty much entirely from the 'remainers' - in the same way that you couldn't resist saying "More like feed BS baffles brains" about those that feel differently than yourself!

 

Edit - take a long, hard look at yourself before casting aspersions at others.....

Edited March 6, 2018 by dick dasterdly

[simple1]

22 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

 

Have you read the brexit threads?  I can assure you that the insults are pretty much entirely from the 'remainers' - in the same way that you couldn't resist saying "More like feed BS baffles brains" about those that feel differently than yourself!

 

Edit - take a long, hard look at yourself before casting aspersions at others.....

I made no comment regards yourself, but of the voters in Italy casting votes for anti establishment / hard right / waste of space parties. You wish to take on the mantle of outrage for such Italian voters - your choice. Oh...BTW why do you expect one should respect the far right, would be interesting to read your justification for evil.

Edited March 6, 2018 by simple1