Long sought by North Korea, summit holds risks for Trump administration

[webfact]

Long sought by North Korea, summit holds risks for Trump administration

By Josh Smith and David Brunnstrom

 

South Korea's national security chief Chung Eui-yong briefs U.S. President Donald Trump at the Oval Office about his visit to North Korea, in Washington March 8, 2018. The Presidential Blue House/Yonhap via REUTERS

 

SEOUL/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - For at least two decades, leaders in North Korea have been seeking a personal meeting with an American president.

 

Now, as a summit unexpectedly appears possible, analysts fear U.S. President Donald Trump's understaffed administration may lack the expertise to successfully turn a political spectacle long sought by Pyongyang into a meaningful opportunity to convince North Korea to abandon its nuclear programme.

 

South Korean officials said Friday Trump almost immediately agreed to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, without preconditions, by the end of May. Even proponents of a diplomatic approach towards North Korea worry the administration could be rushing into a summit with little time to prepare.

 

Such a summit - the first time sitting American and North Korean leaders have ever met - would typically happen after each side had made at least some concrete agreements, said Suzanne DiMaggio, a senior fellow at the New America think tank, who has engaged North Korean officials at unofficial discussions.

 

FILE PHOTO: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un watches the launch of a Hwasong-12 missile in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on September 16, 2017. KCNA via REUTERS/File Photo

 

"It will have to be managed carefully with a great deal of prep work," she said on Twitter. "Otherwise, it runs the risk of being more spectacle than substance. Right now, Kim Jong Un is setting the agenda and the pace, and the Trump administration is reacting. The administration needs to move quickly to change this dynamic."

 

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has often been publicly contradicted by the White House over North Korea, including on Thursday when just hours before the announcement of a summit he said "we are a long ways from negotiations".

 

Several experienced career diplomats occupy key positions in the Trump administration's Korea and East Asia offices, but many of them are in an acting capacity while other positions are entirely empty.

 

Joseph Yun, the U.S. envoy in charge of negotiating with North Korea, quit last week, and Trump has yet to nominate an ambassador to South Korea.

 

"A Trump meeting with Kim presents both risks and opportunities," said Bonnie Glaser, an Asia expert at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies think tank.

 

"The U.S. side needs to be very, very well prepared and know exactly what it wants to achieve, as well as what the U.S. is willing to provide in return."

 

"A REWARD TO NORTH KOREA"

 

Analysts say North Korea has been seeking a summit with American leaders as a way to secure international legitimacy, something that has prevented past U.S. administration's from taking Pyongyang up on its invitations.

 

"A summit is a reward to North Korea," said Robert Kelly, a professor at South Korea’s Pusan National University. "It extends the prestige of meeting the head of state of the world's strongest power and leading democracy. That is why we should not do it unless we get a meaningful concession from North Korea. That is why other presidents have not done it."

 

If the summit fails, the cost could be higher than in the past, observers noted, with North Korea firmly in possession of a nuclear arsenal and Trump having said military strikes may be needed to remove those weapons.

 

Kim Jong Un has "committed to denuclearisation" and to suspending nuclear and missile tests, South Korea's National Security Office head Chung Eui-yong told reporters at the White House on Thursday after briefing Trump. North Korea, though, has yet to provide more details.

 

"There hasn't been any North Korea-U.S. summit meetings at all and having one after North Korea has already obtained nuclear weapons basically sends a signal that the U.S. is willing to deal with North Korea on that basis," said Zhao Tong, a North Korea expert at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Centre in Beijing.

 

"So that achieves North Korea's first objective, even if there's no progress at all in terms of what they discuss at the summit," Zhao said.

 

A senior administration official said Trump was elected to take a different approach from previous presidents.

 

That included avoiding low-level negotiations that have failed in the past in favour of talking directly to Kim as the "one person who can actually make decisions instead of repeating the... long slog of the past," the official said.

 

In 2000, Marshal Jo Myong Rok, a powerful figure in the North Korean armed forces, became the first and most senior North Korean official to visit the White House and meet a U.S. president, then Bill Clinton.

 

Shortly after, then-U.S. secretary of state Madeleine Albright travelled to Pyongyang to meet Kim Jong Un's father and predecessor, Kim Jong Il, in a visit to lay the groundwork for a visit by Clinton that would only happen after he had left office.

 

During President Barack Obama's administration, North Korean officials were also seeking a breakthrough with the United States, and were disappointed when American officials offered no diplomatic concessions, former U.S. director of national intelligence, James Clapper, has said.

 

Even observers who credit Trump's hardline stance with setting the stage for talks said they are waiting to see if this time is different.

 

"North Korea has said these things before - Kim Jong Il wanted to meet with President Clinton," said Mark Dubowitz, CEO of Washington’s Foundation for Defence of Democracies think-tank.

 

"Pyongyang has to be serious about denuclearisation. In the meantime, the Trump administration should continue using the toughest sanctions to maintain maximum pressure before the summit in May."

 

(Additional reporting by Philip Wen in BEIJING.; Editing by Bill Tarrant)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2018-03-09

[mikebike]

"The U.S. side needs to be very, very well prepared and know exactly what it wants to achieve, as well as what the U.S. is willing to provide in return." said Bonnie Glaser, an Asia expert at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies think tank.

 

Well that doesn't sound like the current admin's modus operandi...

 

"...it runs the risk of being more spectacle than substance."

 

Ah there's the bullseye!!

[mfd101]

Nothing ventured, nothing gained. And not all that much to be lost (ie short of war, it would be difficult for the current situation to get much worse).

 

Conclusion: Worth the risk.

[lovelomsak]

The art of the deal.

[Luckysilk]

Imagine how the left will melt down when they hear the words 

 

The Nobel Peace Prize goes to President Trump.

[sirineou]

7 minutes ago, Luckysilk said:

Imagine how the left will melt down when they hear the words 

 

The Nobel Peace Prize goes to President Trump.

 one gets the Nobel price for agreeing to meet?

If I knew that, I would be making more appointments. I can use the cash. 

[riclag]

Big deal if PT pulls this off .It will make it that much easier for the 2020 run.Will he get help from the Dem's?Yes,criticism,obstruction and resistance ,which will be the dems demise, for they will be held accountable by the Presidents tweets.

Will he have a deal with NK, possibly but NK and my country have been through this before with Clinton,Bush and Obama.There is a very high bar for NK to meet! 

[Boon Mee]

There is absolutely no down side to the meeting between the NORKS and President Trump. 

Only positive things can come about literally for the whole world when nuclear disarmament occurs on the peninsula. 

[ilostmypassword]

16 minutes ago, Boon Mee said:

There is absolutely no down side to the meeting between the NORKS and President Trump. 

Only positive things can come about literally for the whole world when nuclear disarmament occurs on the peninsula. 

Apparently, the White House disagrees with you:

 

White House: North Korea must take 'steps' before Trump-Kim meeting

White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said Friday that the U.S. will require North Korea to take “concrete and verifiable steps” before President Trump attends an announced meeting with Kim Jong Un.

The White House had not previously said that there would be any preconditions for the talks when it announced late Thursday that the president would be open to meeting with the North Korean leader in the next few months.

“This meeting won't take place without concrete actions that match the promises that have been made by North Korea,” Sanders said.

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/377642-white-house-north-korea-must-take-steps-before-trump-kim-meeting

[mfd101]

24 minutes ago, Boon Mee said:

There is absolutely no down side to the meeting between the NORKS and President Trump. 

Only positive things can come about literally for the whole world when nuclear disarmament occurs on the peninsula. 

You're assuming that it will happen. On past performance, the NK will just use this as a reason to go quiet for a while & absorb some Western aid, then the next round of blackmail will start in a couple of years ...

 

So there's no cause for optimism. Au contraire. Still, it's worth a try.

[lovelomsak]

19 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

“This meeting won't take place without concrete actions that match the promises that have been made by North Korea,” Sanders said.

I thought NK said they would stop their nuclear development and testing during talks.. Looks to me like  Sarah should talk to the others in government about this huh.

[RobFord]

This is all being done to feed the base. Kim’s base.

Trumps being played like the others before him. 

[dunroaming]

Where is this meeting going to take place? Obviously Trump won't go to NK and it is unlikely that Kim would risk going to the USA.  Neutral ground?

[Dumbastheycome]

If  any  such  meeting  eventually  occurs  it  can only  be  hoped  that intelligent  people also  attend as a matter of  course and are  permitted  to   record every  word. Otherwise  the  two   nations  who currently demonstrate  the  greatest  militaristic poses that  preocupises the  global arena in a comical version  of  David  &  Goliath will continue  the  fascinations  of  distraction!

 Watch  your   back !

[aright]

[boomerangutang]

12 hours ago, Boon Mee said:

There is absolutely no down side to the meeting between the NORKS and President Trump. Only positive things can come about literally for the whole world when nuclear disarmament occurs on the peninsula. 

Here's are some possible down-sides:

 

>>>>    Trump takes a liking to Kim (like the former basketball star). It develops similar to Trump's adulation of Putin.  Putin can do no wrong from Trump's view.  If a bromance develops between T and K, Kim can do no wrong, in Trump's view.  What can go wrong with that, ....for American and Japanese, and S.Korean security?   Plus,  most of Trump's personal relationships are love-hate back and forth.  He's done it with the Clintons, Obamas, Spicer, Bannon, Cruz, his wives, and countless others.

 

>>>   Kim has and/or can get denigrating info on Trump (or a member of his family).  Blackmail material.  Kim can get some with his own agents and/or he can possibly get some from Russians or Chinese or....?  Even Trump supporters can admit he has an oil slick at least 20 miles long.   Even an 9 year old Taiwanese kid could probably find dirt on Trump, with some in-depth internet searching.  Example:  Kim may get hold of a medical exam showing Trump has one or more STD's (he's had sex with 100's of women, and he hates to use condoms).  A lot can be done with blackmail. 

 

>>>  Trump has proven 1,000 times how he breaks promises.  He could break promises to Kim, which would piss the N.Korean off.  Nothing bad could happen there, could it?