SURVEY: Cryptocurrency--would you invest?

[bearpolar]

 

no point in trying to reason with an old philosophy graduate that puts no substance in his very long paragraphs and refuses to research beyond tabloids

[Craig krup]

6 minutes ago, Hummin said:

It continue to remind me of World Game inc in the 2000. The same debate and the same arguments. New shit new vending. You can bottle air and sell air, but it is still air inside the box and it is what people think is special about the air, that gives it a value. Voss water is still water, and not even from Voss. It is called branding!

Okay. Back in the fifties and sixties Indian migrants in the UK would pin banknotes to themselves and get their picture taken to send back home - "Look at me: I'm minted". Bringing out a clip of notes - I suppose - continues to have a similar value for a few, but it's a pretty marginal phenomenon. Money matters because of what it wins you (interest) or what it buys. I don't think the simple possession of Bitcoin - supposing that people knew you possessed it - would deliver much utility. Or, put differently, $9k worth of motorcycle on a hot day would buy a lot more kudos than a Bitcoin. Flaunting water with some (supposed) provenance is a similar act, but I can't see that Bitcoin could have a long-term value as that kind of social signal. Gucci and the like is just better for that purpose. 

[bearpolar]

no point in trying to reason with an old philosophy graduate that puts no substance in his very long paragraphs and refuses to research beyond tabloids

[bartender100]

Future of Cryptocurrency Industry

The valuation of the cryptocurrency market is currently hovering around $400 billion, which is less than the combined market caps of HSBC and JPMorgan. The cryptocurrency market is still at its early stage and considering that only bitcoin has been around from 2009 to 2015 until the creation of Ethereum and the tokenized ecosystem, the cryptocurrency industry is really less than five years old.

 

The fact that startups with about 200 employees have reached multi-billion dollar valuations and beat out major banks such as Deutsche Bank in profitability demonstrate a healthy long-term development of the cryptocurrency market.

 

As long as the demand for the cryptocurrency market can be sustained and institutional investors continue to enter the space, similar to how Binance has been able to surpass Germany’s biggest bank in less than 8 months of existence, it is possible that cryptocurrency businesses take over the global finance industry in the next decade or two.

 

The exponential growth rate of the market shows the possibility of million-dollar bitcoin price predictions by experts like Tim Draper and Peter Thiel.

 

 

https://www.ccn.com/binance-surpassed-germanys-biggest-bank-deutsche-in-profitability/

[bartender100]

ETH has broken though major resistance of $666, only way is up.

 

 

[Craig krup]

2 hours ago, bearpolar said:

no point in trying to reason with an old philosophy graduate that puts no substance in his very long paragraphs and refuses to research beyond tabloids

Yes, but 1) only someone who has never read anything thinks the paragraphs are long, and 2) only someone who has never learned to reason thinks the issues I raise are less germane than the maddened-with-avarice horse jobby outpourings of some tube on a website. 

 

The stuff you hear and read has a texture. It's what complex speech sounds like to people who don't have much of an education. The British politician Neil Kinnock used to talk the most enormous piffle. What he was doing was trying to mimic the rhythm and sound of the pointy-headed intellectuals he admired but didn't have the patience to emulate. So he - unwittingly - engaged in parody. 

 

"Ethereum, in a space defined both by technical considerations and the possibility of a regulation-inspired break out at the 200 day moving average resistance level, can be expected to under-perform, but this should be recognised as a buying opportunity within the context of a demand-constrained liquidity environment". 

 

Now the above in italics is just a load of meaningless <deleted> that I churned out by turning off my brain. It's the kind of mindless sh*te that spread like a cancer whenever we have this kind of collective abandonment of reason. It sounds like it means something to people who've never read two pages in silence. 

[sanemax]

6 minutes ago, Craig krup said:

Now the above in italics is just a load of meaningless <deleted> that I churned out by turning off my brain. It's the kind of mindless sh*te that spread like a cancer whenever we have this kind of collective abandonment of reason. It sounds like it means something to people who've never read two pages in silence. 

You should have stated that at the beginning..........I just went out and bought some Bitcoins on the strength of that paragraph !!!!

[Craig krup]

1 hour ago, bartender100 said:

https://www.ccn.com/binance-surpassed-germanys-biggest-bank-deutsche-in-profitability/

Let me get this straight. The middle men, the exchange - the provider of the picks and shovels to the brain-dead investors, miners and "entrepreneurs" - made a fortune, and that's a reason why I should get involved?!!!! 

 

F-F-S.

[Craig krup]

Here's a blockchain expert (or so it very much seems) explaining why this - the fundamental McGuffin that supposedly makes this all make sense - is complete nonsense for this intended purpose. 

 

 https://www.vox.com/conversations/2018/4/11/17206018/bitcoin-blockchain-cryptocurrency-weaver

 

 

[Hummin]

6 hours ago, Craig krup said:

Here's a blockchain expert (or so it very much seems) explaining why this - the fundamental McGuffin that supposedly makes this all make sense - is complete nonsense for this intended purpose. 

 

  https://www.vox.com/conversations/2018/4/11/17206018/bitcoin-blockchain-cryptocurrency-weaver

 

 

From the article

«Those who are believers are believers. Very few people have followed it like I have for five years and still find it ridiculous, but that’s because I’m an academic and I have the space to do it and I find parts of it, especially the criminality, interesting. But the arguments in defense of this stuff are getting loonier and loonier.»

 

 

[phycokiller]

you folks can have your opinions but the market is the only thing worth following when it comes to money. price rising, its a bubble , stay away, price dropping, see I was right, best to stay away. well, enjoy your opinions, Im enjoying my early retirement

[Hummin]

15 minutes ago, phycokiller said:

you folks can have your opinions but the market is the only thing worth following when it comes to money. price rising, its a bubble , stay away, price dropping, see I was right, best to stay away. well, enjoy your opinions, Im enjoying my early retirement

So you are out and safe? Easy come easy go, just saying

 

Only when you are out, and have placed your money well in a dead safe spot, you can enjoy your early retirement. 

[Johnniey]

31 minutes ago, phycokiller said:

you folks can have your opinions but the market is the only thing worth following when it comes to money. price rising, its a bubble , stay away, price dropping, see I was right, best to stay away. well, enjoy your opinions, Im enjoying my early retirement

I've been buy for some time now, a couple of years and could actually retire now if I sold everything with my profit from this market. Every coin now has made a profit, due to KNC's recent rise. Ripple made me 2000% on my investment.

[Craig krup]

1 hour ago, Johnniey said:

I've been buy for some time now, a couple of years and could actually retire now if I sold everything with my profit from this market. Every coin now has made a profit, due to KNC's recent rise. Ripple made me 2000% on my investment.

Is the world full of clever people? Yea it is so. And surely they do love themselves and get right on the breasts of others. 

Is the world full of the stupid? Abundantly so; we are replete with natural fools, numpties and tubes of every stripe and hue, and so sayeth the Lord. 

Is the world full of the impatient? We answer as a chorus, "Yes, master, yes, they do verily take the skitter and would trade their left foot were but that the pagan Christmas to arrive, early or even the poppadoms, when they slosh with lager and be possessed of the hunger. 

Be some patient? Some be so, Jehovah. They are at peace with their plotting and planning, like a viper on Valium, and do frequently take for a ride those whose pants play host to thine ants. 

 

Why the f*%k, in a planet full of the above, would money flow to the stupid and impatient? Moreover, why would mere patience be over-rewarded? The great Warren Buffett said that as an investor he's not looking for the smartest doctors, he's looking for the Mayo clinic. What did he mean by that? If you own a company where - literally - the most valuable asset is the people then expect, over time, all the money to end up in the hands of the people. That's what happens in football clubs and the like. The Mayo Clinic, however, provides a forum - a place of work - that even good doctors need. So if you own the Mayo Clinic maybe you can make some money. 

 

So why does anyone get money from others? 1) You've a skill. Maybe more could gain it, so you're wages will collapse - programmers in 1989 - but right now you're rare and badly needed. 2) You'll do what's onerous. Cleaning, driving a truck and auditing companies don't involve huge skill, but these are needed jobs, are stressful, demand endurance, attention to detail and application, so you get paid. 3) You own something and others want it. You've a house, car, gold coin, whatever. It's desirable, probably provides utility of a very obvious sort, and would cost money to make, or can't ever be made (the Mona Lisa). 4) You're prepared to wait. People (rightly) prefer the present to the future. You could die. So there's a price for waiting. It's 0.8% if you wait in cash, 1.2% if you wait in bonds and 5.1% if you wait in equities. Bonds and equities are, to varying degrees, volatile. That's why you get paid more. These are average figures. 

 

Could Bitcoin and the like be a "1" or a "3"? Is there a skill in seeing the value? You think? Does it deliver utility, like a washing machine or a scooter? is it a "4"? Are Bitcoin owners prepared to wait? You think? 

 

Crypto currencies are just one more example of what we've seen time after time since time immemorial. The impatient sometimes mass, and they steal from each other. Often they don't realize they're doing it. They all bid furiously for something - tulips, houses, Bitcoin - and the price soars. At some point there's a crash, and the person who entered first and sold just in time is rich, but it's just a transfer from all the other impatient idiots. The group of idiots has lost massively through transaction costs and the like, so it's not even a pure gamble in the way that ten people with $100,000 can make one of their number a millionaire. It's more like twenty with $100,000 making one millionaire, and the bloke with the exchange grabbing the other million. Your chance of being second last (and so rich) is the same as being last (and poor), and it rises inexorably for even second you hold the asset. 

 

How does anyone ever improve their circumstances, and why does anyone ever transfer ownership of anything to anyone else? These are fundamental questions, but the group of people who're i) a bit thick, ii) a bit impatient, iii) a bit indignant, iv) a bit committed and v) a bit desperate have no interest in pursuing these questions, because they suspect (rightly) that they'll lead them to a conclusion they won't like. But as Freud pointed out, "Who are they conning?" A man who avoid the evidence that his wife is cheating on him already knows that his wife is cheating on him, and where the evidence is. He has to in order to avoid it. So what the hell do the crypto crowd think they're doing when they refuse to think? They already know - in their bones - that folk are rationally self-interested. They know that getting folk to hand over money for a SIM means giving them a good network. They know that the people who build networks are as smart (at least!!) as the people who buy cryptos. So they know there's something badly wrong with the model of the world they rely on to justify their behaviour. But it's hot. They're lazy. They're impatient. They're desperate. They can't think what they'll do if this (latest) route to easy money is acknowledged as the horse jobbies it very obviously is. So they scream, put their fingers in their ears, and roll the dice. 

[phycokiller]

5 hours ago, Hummin said:

So you are out and safe? Easy come easy go, just saying

 

Only when you are out, and have placed your money well in a dead safe spot, you can enjoy your early retirement. 

could be bitcoin is the safest place available at to moment, I like the idea that I dont have to trust a third party like a bank, I also quite like that nobody knows my wealth. naughty I know, and also the 300% return a year since it first started, 600% last year I think, call it gambling but I like that too

[Hummin]

14 minutes ago, phycokiller said:

could be bitcoin is the safest place available at to moment, I like the idea that I dont have to trust a third party like a bank, I also quite like that nobody knows my wealth. naughty I know, and also the 300% return a year since it first started, 600% last year I think, call it gambling but I like that too

As long you know it is gambling, I respect that, and as you say, we never know tomorow, that is what i have to consider as well as everyone else. Spread risk is my idea, but of course no fantasy return, but Im in for long term, and have what I need. 

[Craig krup]

13 minutes ago, phycokiller said:

1) could be bitcoin is the safest place available at to moment, 2) I like the idea that I dont have to trust a third party like a bank, 3) I also quite like that nobody knows my wealth. naughty I know, and also the 4) 300% return a year since it first started, 600% last year I think, call it gambling but I like that too

1) "Safe" in what sense? Safer than a cash deposit in a hard currency in the developed world, below the deposit protection scheme limit? Safer than index-linked developed world debt? 2) You don't have to trust third parties? Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't there been scandal after scandal regarding frauds and crypto exchanges failing? 3) Nobody knows your wealth? But you don't know your wealth. You've no idea what any of what you own (or "own") is worth until you turn it into one of the things you despise: cash in a normal account. Your "wealth" is a mental fiction: the present dollar value of your crypto "assets". 4) The idea of "return" is nebulous: what starting figure do you want to take? On what day after 2009? Because the famous "rule of 72" tells you that a price doubles in 72 divided by the interest rate. So at 24% money doubles every three years. To give you some indication of how explosive compound interest is, a 7% return means that $100 becomes £13,050 in 72 years. If we take $9000 as our Bitcoin price and assume 100% a year then after ten years we have $9,216,000. 

 

Now there's two ways to look at this. 

 

We'll be rich, I tell you, rich beyond the dreams of avarice!!

 

This is the biggest load of old b*llocks since the Sundance Septuagenarian Gay Movie Festival 

 

Choose. Your welfare depends on it. 

[jenny2017]

I've chosen no, because I believe it's too late now and there's no money to make. But losing money seems to be more accurate when investing. 

 

   I should have done that two years ago with all I had. 

[Craig krup]

I should say, Bitcoin could go to $100,000, or $1m or $10m. You could die in one minute. If you've no present, obvious, serious illnesses you could live to 100. Medical advances could mean you'll live to 200. It's possible we'll be able to digitize everything it means to be us - people like me may be wrong about consciousness - and so we could live forever. A mistake like the Able Archer Signals exercise in 1983 could see us all die today. 

 

The only "could" worth thinking about is the risk-adjusted could that results from weighing all the possibilities based on what you know about the world. So we know that blockchain technology is keech (Scots don't need to guess the meaning from the context) as a way of running a currency. We know that crypto currencies aren't legal tender anywhere, and seem unlikely to become legal tender. We know that lending money into existence by forwarding loans for the purpose of buying assets under the control of central banks, with interest rate adjustments to control inflation, is a workable system for money creation. We know that for any investment the return is absolutely a function of the initial stake. We know that if our losses are limited to our stake, the upside is explosive, and the explosive upside multiplied by its probability is greater than the stake, then gambling is rational: spread across a sufficient number of "games" it isn't even a gamble. We know that "Black Swans" exist: unknown unknowns. We know that claims about upside are always speculative. We know that greed, hope, wishing and dreaming are perennial in the human condition. 

 

So anything's possible. Warren Buffett said that it only takes 130 points of IQ to understand everything about finance. The rest you can give away. It doesn't make a difference. But you need to have the affect - the right attitude - to be an investor. What do you think is true of the attitude of the group of people who invest in cryptos? 

[Craig krup]

4 minutes ago, jenny2017 said:

I've chosen no, because I believe it's too late now and there's no money to make. But losing money seems to be more accurate when investing. 

 

   I should have done that two years ago with all I had. 

 

Pick any seven results from yesterday's meeting at Sandown, Chepstow, Doncaster or any other race meet, and imagine what would have happened if you'd put everything you had on an acumulator bet. Say 10/1 times 5/1 times 15/1 times.....

 

You could have turned $10 into one million. Every day idiots try. Martin Amis described it as people trying to foretell the future with nothing to help them but The Racing Post. 

[jenny2017]

17 minutes ago, Craig krup said:

I should say, Bitcoin could go to $100,000, or $1m or $10m. You could die in one minute. If you've no present, obvious, serious illnesses you could live to 100. Medical advances could mean you'll live to 200. It's possible we'll be able to digitize everything it means to be us - people like me may be wrong about consciousness - and so we could live forever. A mistake like the Able Archer Signals exercise in 1983 could see us all die today. 

 

The only "could" worth thinking about is the risk-adjusted could that results from weighing all the possibilities based on what you know about the world. So we know that blockchain technology is keech (Scots don't need to guess the meaning from the context) as a way of running a currency. We know that crypto currencies aren't legal tender anywhere, and seem unlikely to become legal tender. We know that lending money into existence by forwarding loans for the purpose of buying assets under the control of central banks, with interest rate adjustments to control inflation, is a workable system for money creation. We know that for any investment the return is absolutely a function of the initial stake. We know that if our losses are limited to our stake, the upside is explosive, and the explosive upside multiplied by its probability is greater than the stake, then gambling is rational: spread across a sufficient number of "games" it isn't even a gamble. We know that "Black Swans" exist: unknown unknowns. We know that claims about upside are always speculative. We know that greed, hope, wishing and dreaming are perennial in the human condition. 

 

So anything's possible. Warren Buffett said that it only takes 130 points of IQ to understand everything about finance. The rest you can give away. It doesn't make a difference. But you need to have the affect - the right attitude - to be an investor. What do you think is true of the attitude of the group of people who invest in cryptos? 

I think that it's very similar to love. You don;t find it when you are looking for it.

 

   Same goes for the investment in cryptos, people who've got enough cash to invest a good sum, could be lucky and become rich in a few weeks. If not they won;t suffer of hunger, or experience other financial problems. 

[Craig krup]

6 minutes ago, jenny2017 said:

I think that it's very similar to love. You don;t find it when you are looking for it.

 

   Same goes for the investment in cryptos, people who've got enough cash to invest a good sum, could be lucky and become rich in a few weeks. If not they won;t suffer of hunger, or experience other financial problems. 

But if - fundamentally - it's a zero-sum game, with money moving between those holding the baby, then you'd be better going to the casino and betting three times on one number on roulette. The house "vig" - the slice you lose in the process - is much smaller, especially in the UK and other places with one zero and an en prison rule. 

[phycokiller]

3 hours ago, Craig krup said:

2) You don't have to trust third parties? Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't there been scandal after scandal regarding frauds and crypto exchanges failing? 4) The idea of "return" is nebulous: what starting figure do you want to take? On what day after 2009? Because the famous "rule of 72" tells you that a price doubles in 72 divided by the interest rate. So at 24% money doubles every three years. To give you some indication of how explosive compound interest is, a 7% return means that $100 becomes £13,050 in 72 years. If we take $9000 as our Bitcoin price and assume 100% a year then after ten years we have $9,216,000. 

2) thats because people trusted third parties. you dont have to use an exchange or get involved in a fraud 4) with bitcoin you can take any starting date, in its 7 or so year history theres only 2 or 3 months that have run at a loss

[bartender100]

 

 

deVere CEO: Cryptocurrencies set for another surge in prices. Here’s why

 

deVere Group is one of the world’s leading independent financial advisory organisations, with more than $10bn under advice from over 80,000 clients in 100 countries.

 

https://www.devere-group.com/news/Cryptocurrencies-set-to-surge.aspx

Current market activity indicates that cryptocurrencies are set for “another considerable surge in prices gains” in the near future and Ethereum’s price could reach $2,500 by the end of the year - but investors should exercise caution.

 

“Indeed, 20 per cent of all financial firms, ranging from hedge funds to banking giants, are now considering trading digital currencies in the 12 months, according to a new Thomson Reuters survey published this week.

 

 

[Hummin]

If we dont understand it, we are not buying!

 

 

 

 

Prof. Robert Shiller, who teaches economics at Yale and is an expert on bubbles and speculation, says we should pay close attention to the story behind Bitcoin. He claims it bears some huge similarities to the Wizard of Oz, which was really a veiled satire on the folly of the gold standard (the "yellow-brick road").

 

Full article 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnwasik/2018/01/19/whats-the-real-story-behind-bitcoin/#3add3cbf256a

[bearpolar]

7 hours ago, phycokiller said:

2) thats because people trusted third parties. you dont have to use an exchange or get involved in a fraud 4) with bitcoin you can take any starting date, in its 7 or so year history theres only 2 or 3 months that have run at a loss

You can't make an idiot understand simple facts, just let him believe that his saved pennies that are losing value due to massive inflation are the future and that in 30 years we'll all be back on type writers and using an abacus instead of calculators.

 

You'd go crazy like him if you were old and after slaving away your entire life for a subpar retirement and then saw tons of guys under 30 already retired because of virtual currencies.

 

Whatever you think you can find to change his mind, he'll find THE article that says the opposite.. just like flat earthers and climate change deniers.

[phycokiller]

2 hours ago, bearpolar said:

You can't make an idiot understand simple facts, just let him believe that his saved pennies that are losing value due to massive inflation are the future and that in 30 years we'll all be back on type writers and using an abacus instead of calculators.

 

You'd go crazy like him if you were old and after slaving away your entire life for a subpar retirement and then saw tons of guys under 30 already retired because of virtual currencies.

 

Whatever you think you can find to change his mind, he'll find THE article that says the opposite.. just like flat earthers and climate change deniers.

probably but replying for others that may be confused by his comments

[phycokiller]

7 hours ago, bartender100 said:

 

 

deVere CEO: Cryptocurrencies set for another surge in prices. Here’s why

 

deVere Group is one of the world’s leading independent financial advisory organisations, with more than $10bn under advice from over 80,000 clients in 100 countries.

 

https://www.devere-group.com/news/Cryptocurrencies-set-to-surge.aspx

Current market activity indicates that cryptocurrencies are set for “another considerable surge in prices gains” in the near future and Ethereum’s price could reach $2,500 by the end of the year - but investors should exercise caution.

 

“Indeed, 20 per cent of all financial firms, ranging from hedge funds to banking giants, are now considering trading digital currencies in the 12 months, according to a new Thomson Reuters survey published this week.

 

 

someone better call those financial firms and tell them that cryptos have no intrinsic value, its difficult to understand why all their advisers failed to notice, thats what happens when you dont read thaivisa I guess

[Hummin]

Can anyone tell me simple in short terms why bitcoin have a value? Or Ethereum? Please give me a good short explenation, and why I should not buy gold instead. 

 

My best tip is when crypto fails, everyone will sell as much they can as fast they can to buy gold and silver. 

 

Some think they going to jump from crypto to crypto, but,,,,,,, we will see. 

[phycokiller]

 

28 minutes ago, Hummin said:

Can anyone tell me simple in short terms why bitcoin have a value? Or Ethereum? Please give me a good short explenation, and why I should not buy gold instead. 

 

My best tip is when crypto fails, everyone will sell as much they can as fast they can to buy gold and silver. 

 

Some think they going to jump from crypto to crypto, but,,,,,,, we will see. 

didnt crypto fail already, many times actually, but most recently in December when the biggest bubble in history popped? seems the majority decided to hold and the price is sill up almost 10x what it was a year ago. I didnt notice the price of silver or gold go up as people moved there. Im not sure what the failure you are hoping for is?