2024 was a modest sized release of ocean heat, sitting atop a warmer world. James Hansen posted an update on Friday starting with this image, then commenting: "Our preferred metric, the heat anomaly in the upper 300 meters of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean (Figs. 1, 2), already exceeds the 1997-98 super El Nino. Note in Fig. 1 that the 2023-24 El Nino, which drove extreme global warming, was only a moderate El Nino." It is a short read, but significant in its details. https://jimehansen.substack.com/p/super-duper-el-nino-and-the-bigger https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6pJG!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F76950ad6-04e5-479e-839a-c53787a003b8_634x154.png Heat and shifts in rainfall during past strong El Niño events caused severe drops in crop yields in multiple grain crops around the world. That event, combined with human folly, caused famines and political unrest. The 1877–1878 El Niño event led to the death of 50 million people. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1877%E2%80%931878_El_Ni%C3%B1o_event This year's version of human folly includes wars and lower fertilizer availability due to the blockage of shipping through the straits of Hormuz. The rich will buy the food there is, the poor will suffer. Heat in 2024 in Thailand was bad. Some places may have had hotter days or weeks in other years, but for for the year, much of Thailand averaged the hottest year on record. Considering that happened with what Hansen sees as a moderate release of heat, 2027 has the potential to harm many. See https://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperature-report-for-2024/https://berkeley-earth-wp-offload.storage.googleapis.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/03231031/2024TemperatureRankMap-1024x601.png
