Most Thais Think Economy Bad, Getting Worse

[mogandave]

 
Certainly. I don't know.
 
"accurately predict US gas prices will go up in summer."
 
Hmmm. Can you accurately predict by how much they will go up. Perhaps the word 'accurate' means different things.
 
The prediction off gas prices going up may well be one of the simpler scenarios. Would you be as confident if you were asked for a prediction of a number value for USA exports?

You implied it was all a coin-toss and that collecting data was useless at making predictions. Clearly that is not true.

[mogandave]

If the Thai economy was being measure and monitored by truly independent and trustworthy organisations, then I would believe that it is booming, but it is not in my opinon. It is not being measured or monitored truthfully or independently - the figures are being doctored.
The economy is not booming due to productivity - the main growth is being built on debt - both private and public.  
In my experience, false untruthful economic growth like Thailand has 'reportedly' had for several years, will eventually crash - the truth will out.
Japan and China are recent examples that come to mind - both became so used to and dependent on growth, that they made sure sure growth was reported (by using debt).
But when the crash comes, and it will, then as long as the Baht falls back to reality - then that is a good thing.
 

What economies do not peak and crash?

The problem with doctoring numbers is that too many people are involved to keep it secret.

[KiwiKiwi]

14 minutes ago, mogandave said:

 

You implied it was all a coin-toss and that collecting data was useless at making predictions. Clearly that is not true.

 

 

I also said that economics can be useful for simple scenarios, and implied that it's usefulness for complex scenarios was limited. In other words, the more complex the scenario, the closer it gets to being in effect, unpredicrable. Clearly that is true.

 

We have a good example under discussion. You say you can 'accurately predict' that US gas prices will go up. That is not exactitude because there are only 3 options, up, down or stay the same. Accurate would require you to predict the price movement and direction, which you did not do, perhaps you can but didn't. Perhaps we understand different things by the word 'accurately'.

 

That illustrates the dilemma, your prediction can go so far as long as the options are only up down or no movement. The more complex exercise, of going up or down and by how much, may be where economics fails. And that was my whole point, it is not a good predictor for complex scenarios, though it can be useful for simple scenarios.

 

Anyway, I think we've strayed off-tropic. I am not persuaded to change my view on the matter of economics.

 

 

Edited June 8, 2018 by KiwiKiwi

[Rarebear]

12 minutes ago, ELVIS123456 said:

If the Thai economy was being measure and monitored by truly independent and trustworthy organisations, then I would believe that it is booming, but it is not in my opinon. It is not being measured or monitored truthfully or independently - the figures are being doctored.

The economy is not booming due to productivity - the main growth is being built on debt - both private and public.  

In my experience, false untruthful economic growth like Thailand has 'reportedly' had for several years, will eventually crash - the truth will out.

Japan and China are recent examples that come to mind - both became so used to and dependent on growth, that they made sure sure growth was reported (by using debt).

But when the crash comes, and it will, then as long as the Baht falls back to reality - then that is a good thing.

 

The IMF publishes forecasts for 189 countries twice a year.  https://www.heritage.org/trade/report/how-reliable-are-imf-economic-forecasts

 

Is Thailand fooling the IMF?  Ha ha ha.  No, of course not. 

[mogandave]

 
I also said that economics can be useful for simple scenarios, and implied that it's usefulness for complex scenarios was limited. In other words, the more complex the scenario, the closer it gets to being in effect, unpredicrable. Clearly that is true.
 
We have a good example under discussion. You say you can 'accurately predict' that US gas prices will go up. That is not exactitude because there are only 3 options, up, down or stay the same. Accurate would require you to predict the price movement and direction, which you did not do, perhaps you can but didn't. Perhaps we understand different things by the word 'accurately'.
 
That illustrates the dilemma, your prediction can go so far as long as the options are only up down or no movement. The more complex exercise, of going up or down and by how much, may be where economics fails. And that was my whole point, it is not a good predictor for complex scenarios, though it can be useful for simple scenarios.
 
Anyway, I think we've strayed off-tropic. I am not persuaded to change my view on the matter of economics.
 
 

I guess I missed where you said it was useful in simple scenarios.

With some effort I could approximate how much it goes up, but even if you can only reliably predict the direction it will move, is a great benefit.

If I could reliably predict a coin-toss 6 out of 10 times I would be incredibly wealthy.

Yes, I doubt very much your view would ever be changed.

[KiwiKiwi]

2 minutes ago, mogandave said:

 

I guess I missed where you said it was useful in simple scenarios.

With some effort I could approximate how much it goes up, but even if you can only reliably predict the direction it will move, is a great benefit.

If I could reliably predict a coin-toss 6 out of 10 times I would be incredibly wealthy.

Yes, I doubt very much your view would ever be changed.
 

Well, my view is always accessible to rational arguments, as with any intelligent person. I just haven't seen a persuasive argument thus far. But I do think we've gone off-topic so I guess the argument finishes as it started. The only real difference between us is that I have no tried to denigrate anyone, and even the other guy spat the dummy and took his ball home when he couldn't prevail in an unprevailable conversation.

 

Bottom line for me is; if you're happy with the performance of the economists over recent years then good luck - I'm not, which is why I think it's not a serious science.

[Lee4Life]

On 6/6/2018 at 2:36 PM, bkk6060 said:

Where you hear those complaints?  Some of the 1000 bars or massage shops in Pattaya?  "Slow, no customer"...

I am hearing/seeing just the opposite at many businesses.  Growth is at a five year high, people are coming here in droves, and the economy is doing well.

Most Thais have no education on economics and would have no clue what the "economy" is.  But, people love to wallow in negativity and sadness for themselves in some odd way it makes them feel empowered.

 

Must be just a local boom where you live, here in NongKhai and also in Udon it seems like I am seeing more and more shops closing up. Went to Landmark Mall in Udon the other day to find that three of the computer shops and many more cell phone dealers had closed up, the TOPS store is also gone. Went out to the Big C and Tesco stores on the ring road near the airport and found that the food courts hardly have any vendors left.

   When I asked people at the other shops what's happening they shrug their shoulders and say "nobody's buying anything".

    

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, KiwiKiwi said:

 

Yes, I heard predictions of a bigger crash, and to me, that is because the underlying behaviour of the traders and institutions was not corrected, The opportunity was there but instead, the US government (perhaps followed by others) handomely rewarded the people who cused the crash and took no sanctions against them, Human nature being what it is, they just carried right on doing what had been profitable for them, without considering what happens to the rest of us. Big surprise...

 

The next crash will go beyond financial markets, it may even not start from there.

Of course, none of the weaknesses that existed in 2008 have been corrected, but the underlying situation is now much worse than it was ten years ago.

Debt, for example, has increased by 50% even though it was considered that too much debt was the main cause of the 2008 disaster.

 

Meanwhile, people have forgotten that the global economy has never recovered, despite the official talk.

The economy has been going on, only under respiratory assistance (zero or near zero interest rates) and massive doping (trillions of dollars created out of thin air).

The coming crash will be final because central banks have no munitions left: pushing interest rates way below zero? Printing more fake money?

The powers that be know that very well, which is why the drums of wars are heard louder and louder...an escape has to be found...

[Brunolem]

49 minutes ago, Rarebear said:

The IMF publishes forecasts for 189 countries twice a year.  https://www.heritage.org/trade/report/how-reliable-are-imf-economic-forecasts

 

Is Thailand fooling the IMF?  Ha ha ha.  No, of course not. 

Where was the IMF in 2008?

 

[Wang Lalker]

Quote

Most Thais Think

Nope! You cant fool me.

[mogandave]

Well, my view is always accessible to rational arguments, as with any intelligent person. I just haven't seen a persuasive argument thus far. But I do think we've gone off-topic so I guess the argument finishes as it started. The only real difference between us is that I have no tried to denigrate anyone, and even the other guy spat the dummy and took his ball home when he couldn't prevail in an unprevailable conversation.
 
Bottom line for me is; if you're happy with the performance of the economists over recent years then good luck - I'm not, which is why I think it's not a serious science.

I have not commented on the performance of economists, I only commented on the data reported, and my personal opinion of the current status of the economy.

I do not consider economics a science.

I do think using historical data to predict an outcome is generally much more reliable than flipping a coin.

[KiwiKiwi]

5 hours ago, Brunolem said:

The next crash will go beyond financial markets, it may even not start from there.

Of course, none of the weaknesses that existed in 2008 have been corrected, but the underlying situation is now much worse than it was ten years ago.

Debt, for example, has increased by 50% even though it was considered that too much debt was the main cause of the 2008 disaster.

 

Meanwhile, people have forgotten that the global economy has never recovered, despite the official talk.

The economy has been going on, only under respiratory assistance (zero or near zero interest rates) and massive doping (trillions of dollars created out of thin air).

The coming crash will be final because central banks have no munitions left: pushing interest rates way below zero? Printing more fake money?

The powers that be know that very well, which is why the drums of wars are heard louder and louder...an escape has to be found...

 

All of that makes sense. It may be true or it may not be true, but I can certainly see it might be true, and certainly it (or something like it) has been predicted. I was particularly stuck by the 'drums of war' comment, which rings very true.

 

Time will tell I suppose...

Edited June 8, 2018 by KiwiKiwi

[KiwiKiwi]

5 hours ago, mogandave said:

 

I have not commented on the performance of economists, I only commented on the data reported, and my personal opinion of the current status of the economy.

I do not consider economics a science.

I do think using historical data to predict an outcome is generally much more reliable than flipping a coin.
 

 

 

Well, I'm not sure how you isolate economics from the application of economics by economists but I'll take your word for it that you can. Whether using histprical data is better than flipping a coin will become evident or not, meanwhile, the performance of economics, by or not by economists continues not to impress me, it certainly doesn'y fit my criteria for being a science. Perhaps I'll dig out the tarot cards.

 

Decent chat though, thanks, I think it's run its course.

[Happyman58]

11 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Thank you. Always nice to get some commentary from someone not living in a bubble. Anyone living in the real world, who does not have a huge income can see that inflation is very real, and prices are going up all around us. Everywhere I go these days, prices are jumping. As you say, sometimes by 20 or 30%. How is that sustainable? I see it here, and I see it throughout the US, where inflation is rampant, despite what the govt. goombahs are saying. 

Price of Gas wife buys for shop went from 300 baht to 400 baht. Now you say that is not a lot but she buys 5 bottles a week 500 baht extra she has to find. What does she do?Jack up her prices so Thais don't eat any more or just grin and bear it. So far the price of beer, wine, whiskey and most food items just keep going up. She uses all of them. What did Thais workers get in return to cover these increases a lousy pay rise  I think 7 baht Correct me if I am wrong? But it was not worth mentioning. Seen it all before Mike in Aus Wages growth 2.7% Electricity and fuel rises over 20% Before it was the excuse by the big companies " These rises are necessary because of wage rises" Now what is there excuse? Well, they have gone all quiet but still jack up prices. Its called Greed Here it is the Junta doing the bidding of those greedy rich bas   tards who keep them in power by hiking up the prices to screw the ordinary Thais to increase profits All I can say be warned Thailand's junta poverty and oppression creates a Fidel Castro.

[Happyman58]

8 hours ago, Lee4Life said:

Must be just a local boom where you live, here in NongKhai and also in Udon it seems like I am seeing more and more shops closing up. Went to Landmark Mall in Udon the other day to find that three of the computer shops and many more cell phone dealers had closed up, the TOPS store is also gone. Went out to the Big C and Tesco stores on the ring road near the airport and found that the food courts hardly have any vendors left.

   When I asked people at the other shops what's happening they shrug their shoulders and say "nobody's buying anything".

    

Spot on you are absolutely right

[mogandave]

 
Well, I'm not sure how you isolate economics from the application of economics by economists....

Economics exists with or without economists in much the same way that engineering exists with or without engineers.

[neeray]

8 minutes ago, Happyman58 said:

Spot on you are absolutely right

Happyman58 has called it like it is. Grass roots feedback from real people in the trenches, not glorified and boosted numbers from somebody with a vested interest in making the economy look better than it really is.

Earlier in this thread, I spoke of very similar feedback from friends N,S,E,W and central. But some know it all on this forum tried to tell me I didn't know what I was talking about.

I'll believe grass roots input anytime over boosted stats.

[simoh1490]

9 hours ago, ELVIS123456 said:

If the Thai economy was being measure and monitored by truly independent and trustworthy organisations, then I would believe that it is booming, but it is not in my opinon. It is not being measured or monitored truthfully or independently - the figures are being doctored.

The economy is not booming due to productivity - the main growth is being built on debt - both private and public.  

In my experience, false untruthful economic growth like Thailand has 'reportedly' had for several years, will eventually crash - the truth will out.

Japan and China are recent examples that come to mind - both became so used to and dependent on growth, that they made sure sure growth was reported (by using debt).

But when the crash comes, and it will, then as long as the Baht falls back to reality - then that is a good thing.

 

If your starting point is that none of the economic data is reliable or to be trusted you shouldn't try to examine the state of the economy any further and instead go with your prefered answer or perhaps reading tea leaves might be useful. The problem with that distrust is that every news release that's even a little bit positive will always have a ready-made excuse for it to be ignored and replaced with your particular bias, negative news releases will however pass muster in your eyes. None of that either useful or fair to the subject matter nor in the interests of objectivity or sound economic analysis.

 

Government debt has long been reported in Thailand, just as BOT reports weekly on foreign currency reserves, the former can be found in the following link although since you think all reported data is doctored you probably won't wish to review them: http://www.pdmo.go.th/en/popup_money_data.php?m=money&ts2_id=1. But if you should happen to take a peak, pay close attention to the bottom of the page where it shows debt to GDP ratio which is considered to be very low and also note that it continues to fall, MOM.

 

Finally, there's lots of talk about the Thai economy but nobody seems interested in the central bank view, perhaps their 1Q18 news release on this subject may help some:

https://www.bot.or.th/Thai/PressandSpeeches/Press/News2561/n2361e.pdf

 

[Happyman58]

2 minutes ago, neeray said:

Happyman58 has called it like it is. Grass roots feedback from real people in the trenches, not glorified and boosted numbers from somebody with a vested interest in making the economy look better than it really is.

Earlier in this thread, I spoke of very similar feedback from friends N,S,E,W and central. But some know it all on this forum tried to tell me I didn't know what I was talking about.

I'll believe grass roots input anytime over boosted stats.

4

That is true. Most of these so-called number crunching companies do exactly what the government wants to hear or guess what? No more juicy contracts. eg Years ago I use to work night shifts in a coal company. On night shift the accident rate went up Guys getting hurt Company wants to know why so they hired a company to check out why this was happening and to fix the situation. This company came back and said the problem was the men get very tired between the hours of 3-6 in the morning. The recommendation is instead of a half-hour break at 3 give them an hour break. Not want the company wanted to hear So out the door this company went and no action taken. That is what happens when they ask these companies " How is the economy going? See it our way or u hit the highway.

[simoh1490]

Some related economic input:

 

One of the elephants in the Thai economics room is the extent to which retail investors have adopted Foreign Investment Funds or FIF's as they are known, to date these amount to over THB 1.2 trillion and are growing at around 15% per year - these are primarily feeder funds sold by banks as mutual funds which invest in overseas markets, because of the risk and volumes involved, BOT has now started to report on them regularly. 

 

This investment vehicle has come about as a result of BOT's relaxation of the currency exchange regulations, remember, "everyone" thinks that Thailand is a currency manipulator, allegedly! The downside to all of this is that Thailand's economy is now directly linked to overseas bond and equity markets, when they fall or crash the fallout will be felt here also, the economic insulation has been stripped away!

 

https://fundselectorasia.com/thailands-foreign-fund-assets-15/

[bkk6060]

9 hours ago, Lee4Life said:

Must be just a local boom where you live, here in NongKhai and also in Udon it seems like I am seeing more and more shops closing up. Went to Landmark Mall in Udon the other day to find that three of the computer shops and many more cell phone dealers had closed up, the TOPS store is also gone. Went out to the Big C and Tesco stores on the ring road near the airport and found that the food courts hardly have any vendors left.

   When I asked people at the other shops what's happening they shrug their shoulders and say "nobody's buying anything".

    

Sure.

Everybody I know from those areas have left to come to the busier cities for better education,  jobs and lifestyle.

Chicago and Detroit are not great either, but other areas are booming...

 

[stanleycoin]

Is the economy worse.

Yes for the poor people,  for the rest,   it's party time as they drive home in there, Merc or BMW, looking down there noses at the poor people.

I'm all right jack, Money number one. 

 

Edited June 8, 2018 by stanleycoin

[simoh1490]

9 hours ago, Lee4Life said:

Must be just a local boom where you live, here in NongKhai and also in Udon it seems like I am seeing more and more shops closing up. Went to Landmark Mall in Udon the other day to find that three of the computer shops and many more cell phone dealers had closed up, the TOPS store is also gone. Went out to the Big C and Tesco stores on the ring road near the airport and found that the food courts hardly have any vendors left.

   When I asked people at the other shops what's happening they shrug their shoulders and say "nobody's buying anything".

    

The following report says that earnings in Bangkok are three times the national average and nine times higher than in the North East, I reckon those food vendors and stall holders left a loss maker and headed South! http://factsanddetails.com/southeast-asia/Thailand/sub5_8c/entry-3229.html

[LomSak27]

24 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

10 hours ago, Lee4Life said:

Must be just a local boom where you live, here in NongKhai and also in Udon it seems like I am seeing more and more shops closing up. Went to Landmark Mall in Udon the other day to find that three of the computer shops and many more cell phone dealers had closed up, the TOPS store is also gone. Went out to the Big C and Tesco stores on the ring road near the airport and found that the food courts hardly have any vendors left.

   When I asked people at the other shops what's happening they shrug their shoulders and say "nobody's buying anything".

    

The following report says that earnings in Bangkok are three times the national average and nine times higher than in the North East, I reckon those food vendors and stall holders left a loss maker and headed South! http://factsanddetails.com/southeast-asia/Thailand/sub5_8c/entry-3229.html

The article you quote has nothing to do about whether the economy in Bangkok is in expansion or  recession. It is just cost a living analysis with nothing about the question at had, is the economy getting better or worse.

Good deflection though, and Bravo! 


 

[simoh1490]

3 minutes ago, LomSak27 said:

The article you quote has nothing to do about whether the economy in Bangkok is in expansion or  recession. It is just cost a living analysis with nothing about the question at had, is the economy getting better or worse.

Good deflection though, and Bravo! 


 

My post was in response to a poster who said all the food stalls at a mall in Nong Khai and Udon were closing up and there were hardly any vendors left, the point I made is that they probably went somewhere else such at Bangkok where they can earn nine times more money and I posted a link to prove that they could, or was that just too difficult to understand!

[LomSak27]

Its a deflection because given costs, up country vendors would not be able to start up in Bangkok with the money they have, or go heavily in debt, and not to banks. Of course the bigger question is if Bangkok's economy is not good also, why would you make such a move in the first place?

Why don't you link up some articles in The Economist ... make a few pithy statements about inflation, macro economic policies ...... you'll have them barking at the moon in no time. Good Luck.

[simoh1490]

8 minutes ago, LomSak27 said:

Its a deflection because given costs, up country vendors would not be able to start up in Bangkok with the money they have, or go heavily in debt, and not to banks. Of course the bigger question is if Bangkok's economy is not good also, why would you make such a move in the first place?
 

4

The population of Bangkok swells from around 8 million to around 12 million because of transient workers, people from upcountry evidently find a way to make that move, even if you think they can't afford to. Ditto Phuket and Pattaya which rely heavily on labour from the North and North East. 

 

As for your bigger question: is Bangkok's economy not good, I haven't seen it said that it's not good, have you?

[bkk6060]

1 hour ago, stanleycoin said:

Is the economy worse.

Yes for the poor people,  for the rest,   it's party time as they drive home in there, Merc or BMW, looking down there noses at the poor people.

I'm all right jack, Money number one. 

 

And did you know KFC chicken is deep fried?

Your comment is a world wide phenomenon of course money is #1.

[neeray]

4 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

And did you know KFC chicken is deep fried?

Your comment is a world wide phenomenon of course money is #1.

KFC is southern fried. So says the colonel.

[Rarebear]

1 hour ago, stanleycoin said:

Is the economy worse.

Yes for the poor people,  for the rest,   it's party time as they drive home in there, Merc or BMW, looking down there noses at the poor people.

I'm all right jack, Money number one. 

 

Went to a meeting last night of Thai people who were buying up real estate like crazy and all think the economy is great.  Depends on where you are and what new services are being constructed in your area.  Lots of new high speed trains and new motorways and new industrial parks in some areas that employ poor people.  Can't find common labor and have to import millions of people from Burma and Lao.  How many foreign laborers (poor people) is Thailand now employing?