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UK voters should make final Brexit decision if talks with EU collapse: poll


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1 hour ago, mommysboy said:

His view of them: “I believe those who promised what will never be delivered will have much to answer for. They persuaded a deceived population to vote to be weaker and poorer. That will never be forgotten -- nor forgiven.”

 

Sir John Major

Again, he's an expert on the subject.

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2 hours ago, Orac said:

The U.K. has not had the time to agree a new tariff schedule which would involve a massive consultation with industry and take more time than has been available so far - also there has been no mention from govt or industry that any of these talks have specifically taken place yet.

 

Exactly, so your previous post claiming the UK has notified the WTO of using the EUs external tariff is not true. And it seems from this post that you it at the time. 

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7 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

Exactly, so your previous post claiming the UK has notified the WTO of using the EUs external tariff is not true. And it seems from this post that you it at the time. 

Does this help to clarify?

https://trade-knowledge.net/commentary/the-uk-submits-schedules-of-post-brexit-goods-tariffs-to-the-wto-what-that-means/

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2 hours ago, Orac said:

As a reminder here are the tariffs that you posted earlier that will start applying to all the imports that are currently zero-rated if we leave without a deal

You still haven't supplied any evidence for zero rated foodstuffs currently coming into the UK.

 

The tariffs that I quoted (that you refer to above) are current EU import tariffs. You have still failed to show specific evidence that these foodstuff are zero tariffed by the EU at present.

 

The UK is under no obligation to use the EU tariffs post Brexit. That's the whole idea behind having control of our trade policy! That's why the UK voted out! There has been no proposal to do so, and obviously it would be madness to do so.

 

I remember there was a speculative and fear-mongering article in The Independent that was posted here a month or two ago. That's probably what you're getting confused about.

 

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

Exactly, so your previous post claiming the UK has notified the WTO of using the EUs external tariff is not true. And it seems from this post that you it at the time. 

 

7 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

Exactly, so your previous post claiming the UK has notified the WTO of using the EUs external tariff is not true. And it seems from this post that you it at the time. 

 

As you have pointed out and as the article i linked to made clear, the UK has submitted a schedule but it is under scrutiny by WTO for three months. My point is, that since there has not been time for the UK to come up with a new schedule that differs ftom the EU it will almost certainly be the EU one - it was even mentioned in the press that  the TQ parts were still in euros to keep things simple.

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2 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

You still haven't supplied any evidence for zero rated foodstuffs currently coming into the UK.

 

The tariffs that I quoted (that you refer to above) are current EU import tariffs. You have still failed to show specific evidence that these foodstuff are zero tariffed by the EU at present.

 

The UK is under no obligation to use the EU tariffs post Brexit. That's the whole idea behind having control of our trade policy! That's why the UK voted out! There has been no proposal to do so, and obviously it would be madness to do so.

 

I remember there was a speculative and fear-mongering article in The Independent that was posted here a month or two ago. That's probably what you're getting confused about.

 

 

 

 

 

It was covered in the EU docs i attached. You asked me to prove this a few days ago and give an example of a dairy product that was duty free from Africa and I randomly picked cheese from Chad and posted the EU link showing it as duty free under gsp. I am not sure what more i can provide to convince you since i have given you botg technical regulation and sn example.

 

Maybe you could provide examples of foodstuffs from Africa where full duty is applicable or even pick some ag. products  you want me to get the figures for you on.

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8 minutes ago, Orac said:

 

It was covered in the EU docs i attached. You asked me to prove this a few days ago and give an example of a dairy product that was duty free from Africa and I randomly picked cheese from Chad and posted the EU link showing it as duty free under gsp. I am not sure what more i can provide to convince you since i have given you botg technical regulation and sn example.

 

Maybe you could provide examples of foodstuffs from Africa where full duty is applicable or even pick some ag. products  you want me to get the figures for you on.

Chadian Cheddar is rare enough to be unavailable for commercial export in any quantity! Maybe as carry-on in a sandwich on a budget flight out of N'Djamena? Just a random guess. :cowboy:

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23 minutes ago, Orac said:

I randomly picked cheese from Chad and posted the EU link showing it as duty free under gsp.

Ok I found your Chad info. On the surface, that looks very promising, and long overdue. I'd be interested in an analysis of the size and value of the GSP benefits to Africa, the history of GSP, whether quotas apply, etc. Let me know if you know of such a summary.

 

On the other hand this is one of my earlier links showing the bigger picture that you may have missed.

 

 https://www.politico.eu/article/eus-milk-scramble-for-africa/

 

 

Edited by My Thai Life
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EU chicken dumping starves Africa

 

“The European Union has a long and shameful history of abusive agricultural trade practices directed at Africa and other developing regions. Its predatory approach has had a catastrophic effect and has devastated poultry farmers and producers in Africa and elsewhere.

Over the past 20 years, the EU has used its economic partnership agreements to enable their highly subsidised agricultural products to be dumped in Africa, with destructive consequences for job-starved rural communities in low- and middle-income countries.”

 

https://mg.co.za/article/2017-11-10-00-eu-chicken-dumping-starves-africa

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Ok I found your Chad info. On the surface, that looks very promising, and long overdue. I'd be interested in an analysis of the size and value of the GSP benefits to Africa, the history of GSP, whether quotas apply, etc. Let me know if you know of such a summary.
 
On the other hand this is one of my earlier links showing the bigger picture that you may have missed.
 
 https://www.politico.eu/article/eus-milk-scramble-for-africa/
 
 



The milk issue was mentioned when you posted to previously. It is a problem but it needs to be balanced by the fact that most of these African countries can apply tariffs on these imports from the EU if they wish - the EBA arrangement is asymmetrical in that African nations do not have to remove their own tariffs.

The main reason they set milk powder to zero was because they looked at it as a nutritional need and their own dairy producers cannot yet produce the quantities needed to meet their domestic needs though, as in virtually all systems, it creates an opportunity for big multinationals to exploit. Not sure of the answer to this - maybe some form of flexible tariff to make sure that when ag products drop below a certain value then the can apply a tariff but this demands more flexibility in being able to swiftly increase/reduce tariffs than current systems can handle and it also needs to be remembered that any tariff is, in effect, a tax on the consumer so tariffs on milk powder could we increase prices to the most needy in a society.

I am not sure where I could find this very specific summary for you on GSP benefits for Africa since GSP varies depending on the destination - EU is different from US. The one I posted earlier should do the trick:

http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2017/november/tradoc_156399.pdf


There are plenty of resources out there about the history of GSP which goes back much further that the EBA scheme and it has changed significantly since it was initially introduced but, since I noticed a few days ago that you claimed you had qualifications in International Trade, I am very surprised you are not fully aware of it.



I gave you the silly example of cheese from Chad earlier as an example but it was the first thing that came into my head and, rather than me post many more of them, why don’t you give me a example of a product where the full duty is applied on import to EU which avoids you and others thinking I am cherry picking my answers since that was the very point I got in this conversation about a few days ago.


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EU chicken dumping starves Africa
 
“The European Union has a long and shameful history of abusive agricultural trade practices directed at Africa and other developing regions. Its predatory approach has had a catastrophic effect and has devastated poultry farmers and producers in Africa and elsewhere.
Over the past 20 years, the EU has used its economic partnership agreements to enable their highly subsidised agricultural products to be dumped in Africa, with destructive consequences for job-starved rural communities in low- and middle-income countries.”
 
https://mg.co.za/article/2017-11-10-00-eu-chicken-dumping-starves-africa



Yes - things have been bad in the past but are changing now.

From your article

“In Ghana, its recently completed economic partnership agreement with the EU now excludes the poultry industry. Cameroon and Senegal have imposed import bans or countervailing duties and the industry is slowly starting to recover.”


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On 10/16/2018 at 1:15 PM, My Thai Life said:

The EU's arrogance in insisting that the UK be split is sure proof of their fundamental lack of interest in democracy.

Yes we are all perfectly aware that your idea of democracy is one country insisting that 27 others change their ways.

Only the delusional would think that 27:1 was a contentious majority.

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It is a "shock revelation" that the EU is still saying what it said on day one.

 

But they will not be presented with any drafts of the “joint political declaration” on the future relationship – the outline of a possible trading relationship between the UK and EU. Brussels has long insisted a trade deal can only be considered once withdrawal issues like the Irish border are settled.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-summit-deal-talks-donald-tusk-may-uk-plan-a8587101.html

 
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Just read your initial post to me on the topic and compare it with your final post. If you can think of a better way to describe the disparity you're welcome to try. 

 

Regarding the GSP, it is 4 decades old, not an EU initiative.

 

I haven't been able to find a useful analysis of the benefits, but I'll wager that it doesn't come anywhere close to repairing the damage done by the EU's policy of dumping agricultural produce on Africa. Such produce is of course created via huge subsidies - 40% of the EU budget, paid for by us - the citizens. To summarise, we subsidise EU farmers to produce unwanted food, just so that we can dump it on Africa, thereby putting African farmers out of business and fuelling the migration crisis.

 

Personally I'm delighted to know that the UK will no longer be contributing to this abusive system.

 

Yes the GSP system is that old and was designed to allow access to developed markets from poorer countries. As I said, the changes/additions to it made by the EU are important and the EBA addons has opened it up significantly.

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Everything_but_Arms

 

 

I agree with you that, in the past the EU has mistreated Africa much on the same was as other major power grouping have done in the past (US fruit growers in Central America and Carribbean spring to mind) and deserve condemnation for that but that should not distract from the changes that have been put in place over the last few years that are starting to see things improve.

 

Indeed by just looking at the past it is a massive distraction from the current situation and how it will effect us specifically if good terms cannot be reached in Brexit and lead to an imposition of high agricultural tariffs on the vast bulk of our imported foodstuffs.

 

 

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"The US has confirmed it will be “well prepared” to start negotiations on a post-Brexit trade deal with Britain “as soon as” the UK has left the European Union.

 

Donald Trump, the US President, has formally notified Congress of his intention to initiate negotiations on a trade agreement in a major boost for Theresa May as she heads to Brussels for a crunch summit.

 

The confirmation that the US is preparing for trade talks with Britain to start immediately after the UK has left the EU on March 29, 2019, could embolden the Prime Minister and will be seen by Brexiteers as a new card for her to play as she seeks a deal with the bloc."

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/10/17/us-ready-negotiate-free-trade-deal-uk-soon-britain-quits-eu/

 

 

 

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21 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

"The US has confirmed it will be “well prepared” to start negotiations on a post-Brexit trade deal with Britain “as soon as” the UK has left the European Union.

 

Donald Trump, the US President, has formally notified Congress of his intention to initiate negotiations on a trade agreement in a major boost for Theresa May as she heads to Brussels for a crunch summit.

 

The confirmation that the US is preparing for trade talks with Britain to start immediately after the UK has left the EU on March 29, 2019, could embolden the Prime Minister and will be seen by Brexiteers as a new card for her to play as she seeks a deal with the bloc."

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/10/17/us-ready-negotiate-free-trade-deal-uk-soon-britain-quits-eu/

 

Do they really think that that will impress the EU? Good luck in your future negotiations with ‘America First’-Donald..........

Edited by damascase
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3 minutes ago, aright said:

Brexit should be good for Africa, and Africa could be good for Brexit, too

Calestous Juma, at the Harvard Kennedy School, calculates that in 2014 Africa earned nearly $2.4bn (£1.9bn) from coffee grown in rich African soil and picked by African workers. By contrast, Germany’s coffee processing industry makes $3.8bn from roasting imported raw beans and then re-exporting them. Surely, you would think, African countries would roast their own crop before exporting it to Europe so they could reap the extra value.

The EU, however, slaps a 7.5pc charge on roasted coffee imports. The tariff perfectly protects German coffee processors while stunting African manufacturing. The EU has tried to address the worst iniquities of its trade policies in recent years but the Common Agricultural Policy contains a complex system of subsidies which harms African agricultural competitiveness. With more than 60pc of Africa’s economically active population working in agriculture, it takes a toll on the livelihoods of millions of Africans

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/06/brexit-should-be-good-for-africa-and-africa-could-be-good-for-br/

 

Sorry but no.

 

the full rate of duty on roasted coffee is 7.5% but does not apply in the vast majority of cases for Africa  - I believe Gabon is the exception as they have not ratified the agreement.

 

the largest coffee producer in Africa is Ethiopia and they have duty free access to EU for coffee whether roasted or not.

 

 https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0901210000?country=ET&day=16&month=10&year=2018#import

 

 

D8903AE6-77BD-42AB-8A55-61DCE7F8B7B9.png

744D0975-BA37-4A49-B27C-BAD91000CEC8.png

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1 minute ago, Orac said:

 

Sorry but no.

 

the full rate of duty on roasted coffee is 7.5% but does not apply in the vast majority of cases for Africa  - I believe Gabon is the exception as they have not ratified the agreement.

 

the largest coffee producer in Africa is Ethiopia and they have duty free access to EU for coffee whether roasted or not.

 

 https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/0901210000?country=ET&day=16&month=10&year=2018#import

 

 

D8903AE6-77BD-42AB-8A55-61DCE7F8B7B9.png

744D0975-BA37-4A49-B27C-BAD91000CEC8.png

It is good to see that someone presents the facts!

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