Is Thaksin putting another nail in Pheu Thai’s coffin?

[candide]

What could be the rational explanation to Thaksin's behavior?

(1) He does not think the Junta will dare to do it for some reason (i.e. it does not look democratic, people may react, etc...

(2) He thinks the Junta will do it in any case and wants to have fun provoking the Junta before it happens.

(3) He thinks the Junta will do it in any case but wants it to happen early so that another party can be created (maybe it is already created, one among the multiple parties recently created)

(4) He wants the party to be disbanded because he thinks it's a better strategy as the Junta will dominate the government in any case thanks to the rigged constitution.

 

None of these scenarii is really convincing, but none may be stupid. It depends on how well the context is known and assessed.

[robblok]

16 minutes ago, candide said:

What could be the rational explanation to Thaksin's behavior?

(1) He does not think the Junta will dare to do it for some reason (i.e. it does not look democratic, people may react, etc...

(2) He thinks the Junta will do it in any case and wants to have fun provoking the Junta before it happens.

(3) He thinks the Junta will do it in any case but wants it to happen early so that another party can be created (maybe it is already created, one among the multiple parties recently created)

(4) He wants the party to be disbanded because he thinks it's a better strategy as the Junta will dominate the government in any case thanks to the rigged constitution.

 

None of these scenarii is really convincing, but none may be stupid. It depends on how well the context is known and assessed.

You forget the most obvious one.. he is arrogant and can't help himself.. kinda like Prayut who also seems to be real good at shooting his own foot. 

 

*edit* maybe he is just intent on starting violence..  hoping it will occur if his party is banned. Nothing better for him then a few martyrs so the west will do something. 

Edited August 18, 2018 by robblok

[sjaak327]

So to disagree with you we are all blind deaf and ignorant???
So much for democracy and free speech.

No, I was talking about this particular law. Used by the junta to get rid of the competition. And you are talking about democracy and free speech? Oh the irony!

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[sjaak327]

5 hours ago, robblok said:

Sure Sjaak, 
 
If we don't agree with you we are blind deaf and ignorant.. great way to have  a debate. I thought you did not like the junta you certainly act like them.
 
Its quite simple in other countries convicted criminals are not allowed to influence politics or have their political parties why should it be different here. Finally its set into a law. I applaud this because what is the point of banning people for corruption from politics if they can evade that and run a party from abroad. Its just skirting the laws that were in place already. Now the loophole is closed.
 
All Thaksin had to do is lay low.. its his own arrogance that will cause the PTP to be disbanded and I don't want to see them disbanded I want to see them run is this election. I find it strange how none of your side ever place any blame at Thaksin.. the so called master strategist... 

What other countries are you talking about Rob? What is this about convicted criminals? We have someone who committed high treason running this country and passing laws to disable the competition laws that do not mention convicted criminals, it merely talks about outside influence.

Let's stop the convicted criminal <deleted>, in Thailand it means absolutely nothing. The country is being run by criminals, and the only reason they are not convicted is because they can't be due to a self rewarded amnesty....

You forgot to comment on Newin, surely if PT gets disbanded due to outside influence and financing, newin's party should too. Or did you forget Prayuth shameful visit to Buriram recently.

As to Thaksin, your hatred for the man really clouds your judgement. Ego is not the reason, unlike you, he knows the antics of the people he is up against very well, and precisely that is the reason.

 

Oh and talking about the loophole, remember how Prayuth brokered a deal with Newin in 2008 ? He fully exploited that loophole to get Abhishit in government. He didn't seem to mind then. And he doesn't mind now, this law has only one purpose, with Thaksin putting the pressure on, let's see if they have the guts to use it. 

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Edited August 18, 2018 by sjaak327

[candide]

1 hour ago, robblok said:

You forget the most obvious one.. he is arrogant and can't help himself.. kinda like Prayut who also seems to be real good at shooting his own foot. 

 

*edit* maybe he is just intent on starting violence..  hoping it will occur if his party is banned. Nothing better for him then a few martyrs so the west will do something. 

I stated the rational scenarii. Of course there are also non-rational scenarii such as the two you mention.

I don't think that Thaksin is not rational (at least now that he cannot be blinded any more by power).

[sjaak327]

8 hours ago, Expatthailover said:

Easy to win such elections when you have zillions in the bank and a largely dirt poor electorate susceptible to bribes.

There is an even easier way to win such elections, all you need to do is appeal to those people, and that is a fact, Thaksin to this day, appeals to a hell of a lot of voters. Trying to explain away his popularity with the vote buying nonsense just highlights that you have not understood the whole matter. Or in other words, you are wrong. 

[robblok]

6 minutes ago, sjaak327 said:

What other countries are you talking about Rob? What is this about convicted criminals? We have someone who committed high treason running this country and passing laws to disable the competition laws that do not mention convicted criminals, it merely talks about outside influence.

Let's stop the convicted criminal <deleted>, in Thailand it means absolutely nothing. The country is being run by criminals, and the only reason they are not convicted is because they can't be due to a self rewarded amnesty....

You forgot to comment on Newin, surely if PT gets disbanded due to outside influence and financing, newin's party should too. Or did you forget Prayuth shameful visit to Buriram recently.

As to Thaksin, your hatred for the man really clouds your judgement. Ego is not the reason, unlike you, he knows the antics of the people he is up against very well, and precisely that is the reason.

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I won't stop the convicted criminal .. because that is what he is. I know you and like minded people like you love to forget about this and the many other cases he will soon be found guilty of. Yes the laws are against outside influence, but I just ask are there other countries in the world where corrupted criminals are still allowed to run their party .. I haven't seen it in the west so do tell me why should it be different here.

 

Please tell me how Newin his party gets money ? I mean what i read is that Prayut will put money in projects in his area.. not give him cash. That different from what Thaksin is doing.  

 

Again your making him out to be a hero.. with that he knows what he does.. now even the reds said that Thaksin miscalculated with his amnesty.. his arrogance brought him there.. why would it now be different. 

 

Anyway I think its arrogance.. you think its well planned. I guess we differ.

[robblok]

38 minutes ago, candide said:

I stated the rational scenarii. Of course there are also non-rational scenarii such as the two you mention.

I don't think that Thaksin is not rational (at least now that he cannot be blinded any more by power).

I think he is not rational at all, i think it really is his ego. I have seen him do stupid things like this before.. his amnesty.. and just look at how he acted when he was in power.. shooting himself in the foot with his lies. Seems to me the guy is like Prayut.. real egocentric.. if not he would have disappeared  in the shadows and do his work in secrecy. 

[sjaak327]

36 minutes ago, robblok said:

I won't stop the convicted criminal .. because that is what he is. I know you and like minded people like you love to forget about this and the many other cases he will soon be found guilty of. Yes the laws are against outside influence, but I just ask are there other countries in the world where corrupted criminals are still allowed to run their party .. I haven't seen it in the west so do tell me why should it be different here.

 

Please tell me how Newin his party gets money ? I mean what i read is that Prayut will put money in projects in his area.. not give him cash. That different from what Thaksin is doing.  

 

Again your making him out to be a hero.. with that he knows what he does.. now even the reds said that Thaksin miscalculated with his amnesty.. his arrogance brought him there.. why would it now be different. 

 

Anyway I think its arrogance.. you think its well planned. I guess we differ.

Again, you underestimate Thaksin, and you are not the only one, the military did it, and is still doing it. They will simply never ever learn. They play right into his hands each and every time. How people can be this stupid, I don't know. If they want to paint Thaksin as a criminal, they need to be absolutely clean themselves, but alas, they are bigger criminals than the one they are fighting, and that is an undeniable fact. 

 

I don't make him out to be a hero, the Junta is doing that. By playing all those dirty tricks, you just don't see it, because your mind is clouded by hate, the rest of the world does, and that is all that matters. Thaksin can travel and walk freely anywhere in the world, except for Thailand. That alone might give you a hint, but then again, it took you four years to see how Prayuth really was, so I am not having my hopes up...

 

As to Newin, please stop playing dumb, Prayuth used tax payer money to buy him, nothing more and nothing less, there is really no difference, expect that at least Thaksin is using his own money …..

As to all of those cases he "will soon be found guilty off" all of those have been re-enacted because of a law change, by people with no mandate where they even scrapped the statue of limitations, No sane country in the world is going to take this seriously of course. Yes even criminals, even people you hate have a right to a fair justice system. What they are doing is not fair, it is not just and any conviction will not be worth the paper it is written on. 

 

I honestly fail to see how a sane person is ok with what they are doing, it is injustice, no other words.

[starky]

On 8/17/2018 at 2:15 PM, robblok said:

Thanksin is just too arrogant and by doing this it is he himself who will help disband the PTP. The irony of it all, all he has to do is lay low.. but no.. he wont. 

I know you don't care either way but I will almost guarantee that short of article 44 coming into play that ptp or some version of it will be present in the next bodgy, probably rigged "election" anyway. 

[kannot]

On 8/17/2018 at 4:21 PM, robblok said:

and how many are stupid enough to follow him in a quest like that

millions  judging by posters ive seen entering northern  villages proclaiming "this is a red  village" pretty pathetic  really when you see this

[greenchair]

It's not going to matter if puea thai is banned. A lot of people still won't vote for the junta, and they certainly won't vote for the Democrats. They'll vote for any party that is not affiliated with them. 

They can't win fairly and they know it ,because of that ,In my personal opinion, there won't be an election 2019.

[pornprong]

On 8/18/2018 at 6:12 PM, robblok said:

I won't stop the convicted criminal .. because that is what he is. I know you and like minded people like you love to forget about this and the many other cases he will soon be found guilty of. Yes the laws are against outside influence, but I just ask are there other countries in the world where corrupted criminals are still allowed to run their party .. I haven't seen it in the west so do tell me why should it be different here.

 

Please tell me how Newin his party gets money ? I mean what i read is that Prayut will put money in projects in his area.. not give him cash. That different from what Thaksin is doing.  

 

Again your making him out to be a hero.. with that he knows what he does.. now even the reds said that Thaksin miscalculated with his amnesty.. his arrogance brought him there.. why would it now be different. 

 

Anyway I think its arrogance.. you think its well planned. I guess we differ.

Convicted by who and for what?

Anyone with any sensibility knows the answer.

Convicted by crooks for nonsense.

 

BTW - have you seen any military juntas in the west? 

Why are you so silent on this fact?

Fanboy heart beating true I guess.

[robblok]

6 hours ago, pornprong said:

Convicted by who and for what?

Anyone with any sensibility knows the answer.

Convicted by crooks for nonsense.

 

BTW - have you seen any military juntas in the west? 

Why are you so silent on this fact?

Fanboy heart beating true I guess.

No junta fanboy.. just not a Thaksin fanboy either. There should not be a junta.. but nor should there be corrupt politicians like Thaksin. How is that for an answer.

[robblok]

On 8/18/2018 at 5:57 PM, starky said:

I know you don't care either way but I will almost guarantee that short of article 44 coming into play that ptp or some version of it will be present in the next bodgy, probably rigged "election" anyway. 

No I don't care either way because I see them both as evil, that said I prefer them not to get disbanded and just run in the election. 

 

That said the junta might be out to get them disbanded, I just feel its stupid on Thaksin's side to help them bury him. 

 

I said it before if someone is out to kill you why hand him a gun and load it for them. That is what he is doing he is giving them proof and justification. Why can't the guy just shut his mouth for the greater good and let his party run without problems.

[robblok]

On 8/18/2018 at 6:52 PM, kannot said:

millions  judging by posters ive seen entering northern  villages proclaiming "this is a red  village" pretty pathetic  really when you see this

Those millions are not stupid they have seen him run last time he said he would fight with them. I doubt they will fall for it this time. They won't risk their neck for him. 

[Baerboxer]

On 8/17/2018 at 5:33 PM, JAG said:

It really is academic whatever Thaksin does or doesn't do. As several have said Pheu Thai will be disbanded, at the appropriate time. That time will be sufficiently close to the election being called to prevent a clone emerging. If Thaksin for some reason cannot be blamed don't worry, then they will invent another reason. 

 

The Junta know that in the end, their only hope of "winning" an election is to effectively disenfranchise the North and North East. 

 

Agreed. But Thaksin is making it easy for them by flaunting the law as he always does.

 

Maybe, at his age, with him and little sis fugitives and son about to face the court, he figures it's all down to one big gamble?

 

I really think that when, rather than if, PTP are dissolved, it will be like a damp firework going off. Thai people just don't seem to care as a generalization and the paid thugs seem to have lost interest.

 

 

[sjaak327]

7 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Agreed. But Thaksin is making it easy for them by flaunting the law as he always does.

 

Maybe, at his age, with him and little sis fugitives and son about to face the court, he figures it's all down to one big gamble?

 

I really think that when, rather than if, PTP are dissolved, it will be like a damp firework going off. Thai people just don't seem to care as a generalization and the paid thugs seem to have lost interest.

 

 

I think you will see that a) a lot of Thai people do care and b) he is already a few steps ahead of them. Again he is not making these comments for just his ego. 

[robblok]

8 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Agreed. But Thaksin is making it easy for them by flaunting the law as he always does.

 

Maybe, at his age, with him and little sis fugitives and son about to face the court, he figures it's all down to one big gamble?

 

I really think that when, rather than if, PTP are dissolved, it will be like a damp firework going off. Thai people just don't seem to care as a generalization and the paid thugs seem to have lost interest.

 

 

Its almost as if he wants the party disbanded and hopes for violence.. that will draw international attention and boost his cause. I am sure like before he is not above sacrificing some foot soldiers to get what he wants.

 

But like you I think it will be hard to rouse the people as they don't care as much anymore.. vote for him.. sure.. endanger themselves for him.. I doubt it they have seen how he disregards his foot soldiers.. his amnesty being a good example.. it was a chance for his foot soldiers to get free but he blew it for his own selfish reasons. Also he was not shoulder to shoulder with them when the bullets did fly.. im sure they remember that too.

[starky]

4 hours ago, robblok said:

No I don't care either way because I see them both as evil, that said I prefer them not to get disbanded and just run in the election. 

 

That said the junta might be out to get them disbanded, I just feel its stupid on Thaksin's side to help them bury him. 

 

I said it before if someone is out to kill you why hand him a gun and load it for them. That is what he is doing he is giving them proof and justification. Why can't the guy just shut his mouth for the greater good and let his party run without problems.

Politicians only exist to make those with no control believe they have freedom of choice. The game is always rigged but at least in Thailand ptp were more of a popular choice than the junta ever will. Overthrowing a country by arms isn't a popular choice.

[Baerboxer]

23 hours ago, sjaak327 said:

I think you will see that a) a lot of Thai people do care and b) he is already a few steps ahead of them. Again he is not making these comments for just his ego. 

 

We shall see. He will never give up his aspirations of being the total ruler and creating a Shin family dynasty like his eternal brother is doing in Cambodia. 

 

Ego, jealoust, greed, selfishness are powerful emotions. He is clever, cunning, manipulative and knows very well what's at stake. 

 

But IMO he's "yesterday's man" and many Thais are fed up with him.

[Eric Loh]

31 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

We shall see. He will never give up his aspirations of being the total ruler and creating a Shin family dynasty like his eternal brother is doing in Cambodia. 

 

Ego, jealoust, greed, selfishness are powerful emotions. He is clever, cunning, manipulative and knows very well what's at stake. 

 

But IMO he's "yesterday's man" and many Thais are fed up with him.

Surely you jest. You really think that he can have his way when there are immovable and more powerful institutions in front of his ambition? More chance of that happening for military generals as history shown repeatedly. 

 

The shenigans of the junta to silence him and the party and stealing his MPs are just opposite of what you claimed that he is “yesterday’s man”. Right B.B.?

[sjaak327]

 
We shall see. He will never give up his aspirations of being the total ruler and creating a Shin family dynasty like his eternal brother is doing in Cambodia. 
 
Ego, jealoust, greed, selfishness are powerful emotions. He is clever, cunning, manipulative and knows very well what's at stake. 
 
But IMO he's "yesterday's man" and many Thais are fed up with him.

Well the last general election that was deemed valid showed many Thais still willing to vote for him. But I understand this was 7 years ago. What I do think is that the junta does not seem to think he is yesterday's news, it seems they are convinced he is still very popular with the electorate, and considering the alternatives I believe they are right for once...

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