Democrats face 'almost impossible map' to retake U.S. Senate

[rooster59]

Democrats face 'almost impossible map' to retake U.S. Senate

By Tim Reid

 

FILE PHOTO: U.S. Representative Beto O'Rourke (D-TX) campaigns in Houston, Texas U.S. November 11, 2017. REUTERS/William Philpott/File Photo

 

CHICAGO (Reuters) - One political analyst calls it "an almost impossible map." Others are even less optimistic.

 

But despite the Democrats' long odds to retake the U.S. Senate in November’s congressional elections, party strategists meeting in Chicago this week say the escalating legal troubles of President Donald Trump's former associates and corruption scandals engulfing Republicans could boost Democrats chances.

 

The path, however, remains difficult.

 

Democrats are defending two dozen Senate seats this cycle - including 10 in states Trump won in 2016, some by huge margins. They need a net total of two seats to seize control of the chamber.

 

Having a majority would allow the party to derail or stall much of Trump’s policy agenda and increase congressional oversight and investigation of the administration, as well as complicate future conservative nominations to the U.S. Supreme Court should another vacancy occur.

 

Stu Rothenberg, a non-partisan political analyst, called the Senate landscape "an almost impossible map" for Democrats. But, he added, given the headwinds facing Republicans, "the Senate could be in play."

 

In interviews at the Democratic National Committee’s summer meeting in Chicago, a dozen party strategists, party members and candidates discussed the party's path and strategy to winning back the Senate, which Democrats last controlled in 2014.

   

CRITICAL CONTESTS

 

Democrats say five races are particularly difficult this year. They are spending hundreds of millions of dollars defending them. Losing just one of the seats in West Virginia, Indiana, North Dakota, Montana and Missouri - all won by Trump in 2016 - could doom any shot of retaking the Senate.

 

An array of state polls give Democrats hope. Opinion surveys show toss-up races in North Dakota, Indiana and Missouri. In Montana, which Trump carried by 20 percentage points, incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester leads recent polls by an average of five percentage points. In West Virginia, which Trump carried by over 40 percentage points, Democratic Senator Joe Manchin is slightly ahead in recent polling.

 

“Those five states are clearly the biggest targets for Republicans,” said Geoffrey Skelley, a non-partisan analyst at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. “There’s two ways to look at the Senate map. It’s really bad for Democrats, but the flip side of this is that this is a perfect year for them to be defending it.”

 

A Republican operative working on Senate races said Democrats seeking re-election in states where Trump remains popular should be worried. "Their national party’s lurch to the left is doing nothing but turning off voters in these states and further damaging their vulnerable incumbents."

 

Florida's Senate fight concerns some Democrats. Polls show a tight race between incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson and Republican challenger Rick Scott, the state's governor. Scott led Nelson by six percentage points in a Florida Atlantic University poll released on Tuesday.

 

While straining to hold all the states Trump won, Democrats are also focused on Arizona and Nevada, which strategists said are crucial pick-ups for the party.

 

In Arizona, where Republican Jeff Flake is retiring, Republicans are in a three-way nominating contest ahead of voting next Tuesday. On the Democratic side, Kyrsten Sinema leads in polls.

 

Senator Dean Heller of Nevada is considered the most vulnerable Republican incumbent. Party strategists said his vote to repeal parts of the Affordable Care Act, known as Obamacare, has been a gift in a state with many retirees and where access to healthcare is a major issue.

 

Democrats need to hold all the states they are defending and win Nevada and Arizona to secure a one-seat Senate majority.

 

FOCUSING RESOURCES

 

Priorities USA and Senate Majority PAC, two Democratic Super PACs, are together spending at least $120 million on ads in Arizona, Nevada, West Virginia, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota and Indiana. Super PACs must operate separately from political campaigns but can raise and spend unlimited money.

 

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s independent expenditure arm has made an initial television buy of $30 million in Arizona, Nevada, West Virginia, Indiana, Montana and North Dakota.

 

The party and outside groups also have started to pour resources into more long-shot opportunities to gain seats in Tennessee and Texas, Democrats said.

 

Recent polls have placed Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke within as few as two to four percentage points of Republican Senator Ted Cruz in Texas.

 

In Tennessee's open race, former Democratic governor Phil Bredesen, a popular moderate, is now in a close race with Republican congresswoman Marsha Blackburn, according to polls.

 

HEALTHCARE, TAXES AND CORRUPTION TOUTED AS WINNING MESSAGE

 

Internal Democratic polling shows that healthcare and the Republican tax cuts that some voters view as a giveaway to wealthy Americans and corporations are winning issues for Democrats this November.

 

"Critical issues, like healthcare, are really important to voters. And Republicans thought the tax cuts would be a winning issue, but it's turned into a loser," said Karen Finney, a Democratic strategist at the Chicago gathering. "We have these big issue trends working in our favour."

 

DNC chairman Tom Perez made clear that Democrats in Senate battles would highlight the legal troubles around Trump after the conviction this week of Trump's former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, and the guilty plea by his former personal attorney, Michael Cohen.

 

Cohen pleaded guilty to federal criminal charges including tax evasion, bank fraud and campaign finance violations. He testified that Trump had directed him to pay hush money to two women who claimed they had affairs with Trump, and the payments were made to influence the 2016 presidential election.

 

Trump, who has denied the affairs, says he paid Cohen out of personal funds and that the payments were not intended to benefit his campaign but to resolve a personal matter.

 

“The culture of corruption from this Republican leadership is out of control," Perez told the party's meeting.

 

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2018-08-25

 

 

[Boon Mee]

The election will be focused on immigration and since the Democrats are the party of Open Borders, that message won't resonate with the voters. 

[bristolboy]

18 minutes ago, Boon Mee said:

The election will be focused on immigration and since the Democrats are the party of Open Borders, that message won't resonate with the voters. 

This is from the communists at Fox News:

Fox News Poll: Voters continue to prefer a pathway to citizenship

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/08/23/fox-news-poll-voters-continue-to-prefer-pathway-to-citizenship.html

[Chomper Higgot]

21 minutes ago, Boon Mee said:

The election will be focused on immigration and since the Democrats are the party of Open Borders, that message won't resonate with the voters. 

The election is going to be focussed on stopping Trump.

[stevenl]

'a lurch to the left', that's party politics at work, not objective analysis.

[FritsSikkink]

1 hour ago, Boon Mee said:

The election will be focused on immigration and since the Democrats are the party of Open Borders, that message won't resonate with the voters. 

The election will be focused on the criminal charges and convictions of the current circus surrounding the WH.

[mtls2005]

With Dems facing re-election in 26 of 35 races, it seems much more likely that they will actually lose ground and drop down from 49 (caucus, incl independents) to 47, or lower? Even if there is the odd net gain like long-shot O'Rourke.

 

Nelson, Donnelly, McCaskill, Heitkamp, maybe even Manchin? could be vulnerable.

 

Maybe Heller and Cruz on the other side are vulnerable?

 

I'm not sure what's possible with Flake, Corker and even McCain's replacement?

 

Maybe even get to 55:45 R/D?

 

Going up a net 2 seems unlikely, even given the current "climate"?

 

The "Connecticut Compromise" (1787) was just that, a compromise, which at that time was necessary. Now? Maybe not exactly what was originally intended, and maybe too much of an influence?

 

 

Edited August 25, 2018 by mtls2005

[neeray]

IMHO, there is a good chance that major sh*t will hit the fan before the mid terms. Anything is possible between now and then both for Trump and for the outcome of the election.

The Trump house is rapidly collapsing like a house of cards.

[Tug]

I want to go surfing on the big blue wave!!!

[ResandePohm]

1 hour ago, Boon Mee said:

The election will be focused on immigration and since the Democrats are the party of Open Borders, that message won't resonate with the voters. 

I sincerely hope you are wrong and that the US population is more intelligent and aware of the destruction that this orange buffoon is doing to US credibility. What he has done by criticizing US allies and by praising US enemies and even treacherously siding with them against his own security agencies. He has already done more damage to US credibility around the world than any previous POTUS. He brags about being a deal maker and putting America first. So far he has not completed a single deal and as far as putting America first he is making old traditional US allies to want to ostracize the US.

[nycjoe]

2 hours ago, Boon Mee said:

The election will be focused on immigration and since the Democrats are the party of Open Borders, that message won't resonate with the voters. 

Did you hear that on Faux news. 

http://tinyurl.com/yawswjbf

[spidermike007]

The republican party has very little credibility at this point. My guess is that mostly only die hard Trump supporters will vote, and I suspect some of them have decided enough is enough. Alot of normally faithful republicans will decide not to vote at all, as they despise Trump now, more than ever, and resent his hostile takeover of the GOP. On the contrary, I think the dems will see the biggest turnout in history. Let us see. It is going to be entertaining. It would be a big surprise if the dems do not take the house. The Senate is a long shot, but anything is possible, at this point in time. The criminal huckster has changed the landscape. Alot of my friends who support him, personally despise him, and many continue to support his policies, while holding their noses, at the stench emanating from the White House. It is a toxic mix of sulphur, carbon dioxide, fear and guilt.

 

I know alot of republicans that are decent, hard working people, who just do not agree with liberal policies and consider the democratic party to be broken. I get that. I agree the party is broken, and hated Hillary. But I did not vote for Tiny Don. It will be interesting to see how many can continue to hold their noses, sacrifice their standards, and continue supporting the morally bankrupt, criminal huckster. 

 

He shoots himself in his own foot daily. His ignorance, stupidity, arrogance, hubris, self congratulatory manner, lack of grace and dignity, crudeness, hatred, racism, plus his crimes and misdemeanors are too much for many to bear. And with many of his long term associates turning on him, who knows what will be revealed before the election? One thing is for certain. Tiny Don has more skeletons in his closet than a Papuan Highlander cannibal. He is starting to make Nixon look honest, dignified, and presidential! 

Edited August 25, 2018 by spidermike007

[Chomper Higgot]

52 minutes ago, mtls2005 said:

With Dems facing re-election in 26 of 35 races, it seems much more likely that they will actually lose ground and drop down from 49 (caucus, incl independents) to 47, or lower? Even if there is the odd net gain like long-shot O'Rourke.

 

Nelson, Donnelly, McCaskill, Heitkamp, maybe even Manchin? could be vulnerable.

 

Maybe Heller and Cruz on the other side are vulnerable?

 

I'm not sure what's possible with Flake, Corker and even McCain's replacement?

 

Maybe even get to 55:45 R/D?

 

Going up a net 2 seems unlikely, even given the current "climate"?

 

The "Connecticut Compromise" (1787) was just that, a compromise, which at that time was necessary. Now? Maybe not exactly what was originally intended, and maybe too much of an influence?

 

 

We differ on predictions of the mid term result in the senate, but agree on the ‘Connecticut Compromise’.

[Chomper Higgot]

The democrats are out campaigning to encourage new voters both the young who will vote for the first time and ethnic groups who may not have voted in the past.

 

The ACLU is battling attempts to restrict voter participation, which some  Republican administrators are engaging in.

 

Outside of the main parties groups like Black Votes Matter are campaigning to increase voter participation:

 

https://www.blackvotesmattermn.com/

 

All great news for democracy.

 

 

[mtls2005]

1 hour ago, Chomper Higgot said:

The democrats are out campaigning to encourage new voters both the young who will vote for the first time and ethnic groups who may not have voted in the past.

 

But the voter suppression efforts are ramping up too. 

 

 

50:50 would be interesting for an Impeachment Trial.

 

WWMPD?

 

 

[Sir Dude]

Instead of just banging the "Hate Trump" drum constantly and still arguing the last election result...if the Democrats came up with (and concentrated on) some solutions/answers that addressed Americans' concerns/problems with the aim of winning over the swing voters, or actually try to widen their appeal from the fluffy strong left Hollyweird sort of stuff you constantly hear, then they would be fine. Things are too polarized now as you are either a Nazi or a Marxist for saying the slightest thing...the middle ground of politics needs reclaiming everywhere, not too hot and not too cold is where it should be at as only trouble or failure is to found at either of the extremes.

Edited August 25, 2018 by Sir Dude

[mtls2005]

5 minutes ago, Sir Dude said:

Instead of just banging the "Hate Trump" drum constantly and still arguing the last election result

 

This thread is about the 2018 Senate mid-terms, and that's what most of us are discussing.

 

You, however, seem to be the one who is bringing up the 2016 election. And of course, tRUmp who seems to bring up the 2016 election at every rally, event, opportunity.

 

There are but a handful of close races, with few issues for the Republicans to run on. They have chosen not to run on the tax cuts or health care, so that leaves the economy, judges and brown people, with tRUmp being the wild-card.

 

About the only Senate race I'm following is the Cruz-O'Rourke battle in Texas. It will be interesting to see if Cruz really ends up bringing tRUmp in to campaign?

 

 

[Sakeopete]

If I were an American I would be most concerned about the economy. All the fluff about Trump did this, Trump said that is meaningless. I would want a strong economy so I can care for my family. Regardless if Trump is or is not responsible for the booming American economy he is getting the credit no matter what Democrats say. Possession is 9/10 of the law.

[Nice Boyd]

7 hours ago, nycjoe said:

Did you hear that on Faux news. 

http://tinyurl.com/yawswjbf

Trumpstain Logic

[ELVIS123456]

The OP topic is that the Democrats are going to not win the Senate (or Congress) in 2018.

 

And they are not !!  A Republican red wave is coming ?

 

But when that happens I am sure the Democrats will blame something or someone else - Russians or Trump being rude or Guns or ICE or Social Media etc etc etc.

Maybe it will be after 2020, when Trump romps home again as POTUS, when the Democrats finally accept that their left-wing liberal policies are not wanted by the People.

Maybe. 

Who am I kidding - of course they will never accept they are wrong and it is their fault they lost.

The Democrats will always believe that their policies are right and the People are wrong, and they just need to be 'educated' and 'reprogrammed'.

More resistence more dissent more obstruction will still be their their mantra as they slowly decay for another 4 years.

 

Trump nominees will win more seats than they lose in 2018 - socialism and liberalism is not what the American people want - capitalism and patriotism is.

 

[bizboi]

8 hours ago, neeray said:

IMHO, there is a good chance that major sh*t will hit the fan before the mid terms. Anything is possible between now and then both for Trump and for the outcome of the election.

The Trump house is rapidly collapsing like a house of cards.

Garbage post he has more support than he’s ever had and deservedly so - he’s done more for the US in a year than Obama did in his whole term!!

[Rimmer]

A troll post has been removed

[mtls2005]

10 minutes ago, ELVIS123456 said:

Trump nominees will win more seats than they lose in 2018

 

Yes, the net add will favor the Republicans by 2 ~ 4 seats in the Senate. In the House, it looks like the Dems will eek out a majority.

 

This is my best guess TODAY.

 

If tRUmp does something stoopid tomorrow, the over/under on that is YES?, then who knows?

 

 

[mtls2005]

7 minutes ago, bizboi said:

he’s done more for the US in a year than Obama did in his whole term!!

 

Wow, the bots are on attack.

 

TRUmp has been in office for ~ 18 months, President Obama served two (2) terms.

[metisdead]

Posts replying to a previously removed troll post have now been removed. 

[pegman]

8 hours ago, Sir Dude said:

Instead of just banging the "Hate Trump" drum constantly and still arguing the last election result...if the Democrats came up with (and concentrated on) some solutions/answers that addressed Americans' concerns/problems with the aim of winning over the swing voters, or actually try to widen their appeal from the fluffy strong left Hollyweird sort of stuff you constantly hear, then they would be fine. Things are too polarized now as you are either a Nazi or a Marxist for saying the slightest thing...the middle ground of politics needs reclaiming everywhere, not too hot and not too cold is where it should be at as only trouble or failure is to found at either of the extremes.

Here is the issue that 70% of Americans agree on right now. 

 

http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/403248-poll-seventy-percent-of-americans-support-medicare-for-all

[FritsSikkink]

19 hours ago, Sakeopete said:

If I were an American I would be most concerned about the economy. All the fluff about Trump did this, Trump said that is meaningless. I would want a strong economy so I can care for my family. Regardless if Trump is or is not responsible for the booming American economy he is getting the credit no matter what Democrats say. Possession is 9/10 of the law.

You not caring that your president is a racist, women molester who cheated hard working people out of their money all his life says enough about you as a person. 

[Sakeopete]

16 minutes ago, FritsSikkink said:

You not caring that your president is a racist, women molester who cheated hard working people out of their money all his life says enough about you as a person. 

He's not my president. 

Edited August 26, 2018 by Sakeopete
I thought I was replying to another Trump post.

[Chomper Higgot]

FOX has these last couple of days started calling out Trump’s lies, and not because they’ve only just realised Trump is a stranger to the truth.

 

FOX are doing so because they see the writing on the wall and they don’t want to be left supporting Trump as he’s dragged out of the White House.

 

Illiberals who rely on FOX for their news and ‘Faith in Trump’ top ups are going to have face some conflicting ideas as FOX recalibrates their heads.

[Chomper Higgot]

2 minutes ago, Sakeopete said:

He's not my president. I'm only countering racism and sexism. If you can show me evidence pointing to him being racist and sexist I will gladly view it. 

What’s the point of arguing with you when you clearly don’t except the reality of Trump’s blatant sexism and race baiting.

 

However low the bar is set on Trump’s behaviour, you’ll still limbo under it.