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British opinion still deeply divided by Brexit: poll

 

FILE PHOTO: Anti-Brexit demonstrators wave EU flags opposite the Houses of Parliament, in London, Britain, June 19, 2018. REUTERS/Henry Nicholls

 

LONDON (Reuters) - British public opinion on leaving the European Union is still deeply split, according to a survey on Wednesday, indicating only a slight increase in support for remaining a member despite growing pessimism about the outcome of negotiations.

 

Britain is due to leave the EU on March 29, 2019 but has yet to secure an exit agreement to define future relations with Brussels and manage the economic impact of ending over four decades of integration with the world's largest trading bloc.

 

Polling showed 59 percent of voters would now vote to remain in the bloc, versus 41 percent who would vote to leave. The findings were published in an academic-led report on Wednesday by research bodies NatCen and The UK in a Changing Europe.

 

That is the highest recorded support for 'remain' in a series of five such surveys since the 2016 referendum and a large reversal of the actual 52-48 percent vote to leave.

 

But the author of the report, polling expert John Curtice, added a note of caution, saying that their panel of interviewees reported they had voted 53 percent in favour of remain in the original vote - a higher proportion than the actual vote.

 

"Nevertheless, this still means that there has apparently been a six-point swing from Leave to Remain, larger than that registered by any of our previous rounds of interviewing, and a figure that would seemingly point to a 54 percent (Remain) vote in any second referendum held now," Curtice said in the report.

 

The government has ruled out holding a second referendum.

 

The survey interviewed 2,048 subjects between June 7 and July 8. That means the survey does not fully reflect any change in opinion brought about by the publication of Prime Minister Theresa May's negotiating strategy, published in early July.

 

That negotiating strategy has split May's party at every level and drawn heavy criticism from both Brexit supporters and those who want to retain close ties to the EU.

 

Nevertheless, the poll shows voters thought the negotiations were going badly even before the publication of May's so-called Chequers plan.

 

"Both Remain and Leave supporters have become markedly more critical of how both the UK government - especially - and the EU - somewhat less so - have been handling the negotiations," Curtice said. "They have also become markedly more pessimistic about how good a deal Britain will get."

 

Curtice said the results of the polling showed that the most influential factor over whether voters will support the conclusion of the negotiations is their perception of its economic effect rather than the details of any deal.

 

(Reporting by William James; editing by Stephen Addison)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2018-09-05

[Chomper Higgot]

The views of a at least half the electorate are not being represented 

 

An issue that will show up in the forthcoming Party Political Conferences.

 

 

[loong]

Quote

The survey interviewed 2,048 subjects 

Absolutely meaningless

[marko kok prong]

As someone who has investments in the Uk,as well as any other Uk expats who do or who have pensions ect,this is looking grim for the pound and our exchange rates,a no deal scenario i can see it falling below 40 baht.

[Chomper Higgot]

1 hour ago, loong said:

Absolutely meaningless

Says a sample of 1.

[loong]

25 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Says a sample of 1.

The survey interviewed 2,048 subjects 

This sample of 1 along with many others will agree that the sample is so small compared to the adult population that it cannot pretend to be an accurate reflection of the population's opinion.

[Tchooptip]

"British opinion still deeply divided by Brexit: poll"

Yes, young working generations on one side and old and bitter generation on the other!

 

 

 

[bristolboy]

13 minutes ago, loong said:

The survey interviewed 2,048 subjects 

This sample of 1 along with many others will agree that the sample is so small compared to the adult population that it cannot pretend to be an accurate reflection of the population's opinion.

As has been remarked elsewhere, it's perfectly ok to not understand how statistics work. For most people it's an abstruse and difficult subject. What's less ok is not understanding that you don't understand.

[JAG]

2 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

The views of a at least half the electorate are not being represented 

 

An issue that will show up in the forthcoming Party Political Conferences.

 

 

The matter was put to the electorate in a referendum. A subsequent general election, whilst it produced a weak and incompetent government, did not demonstrate any desire to change that

 

Why should the imminent party conferences, which by definition are the playground of political activists/enthusiasts and the media do so?

 

[Spidey]

I'm sure that sane Brexiteers, now realise that they were sold a dream that turned into a nightmare.

 

Worryingly similar to Trumpeteers. Both groups nailed their colours to the mast and now just can't back down, no matter how much the mountain of evidence tells them that they've made the wrong choice. Farang "face".

 

Its interesting that roughly 80% of Trump supporters remain loyal and roughly 80% of Brexit supporters remain loyal.

 

Does this mean that 80% of people find it difficult to admit that they were wrong, or that 80% of us are pathologically stupid?

 

If the referendum were to be re-run tomorrow, it would undoubtedly come out on the side of Remain.

Edited September 5, 2018 by Spidey

[Nigel Garvie]

28 minutes ago, loong said:

The survey interviewed 2,048 subjects 

This sample of 1 along with many others will agree that the sample is so small compared to the adult population that it cannot pretend to be an accurate reflection of the population's opinion.

Of course Brexiteers are trying to insulate themselves from the truth, in the same way that their leaders succeeded in insulating the public from the truth during the referendum. However there have been quite a number of surveys in the past few months, and they all point clearly in the same direction, support for Brexit is falling significantly. How much this is due to the growing awareness that Brexit represents  a disastrous economic future, is not recorded, but seems self evident. The latest survey result is shown below - note a respectable sample size.

The new study was based on two YouGov polls that together surveyed more than 15,000 people.

In total, it concluded that 2.6 million Leave voters have switched their support to Remain, while 970,000 have moved the other way – a net gain for the pro-EU side of 1.6 million. The majority for Leave in 2016 was around 1.3 million, meaning if all those who have now switched their allegiance had acted in accordance with their new view at the ballot box, Remain would have won the vote by a greater margin, than Leave did in the referendum.

 

 

[Nigel Garvie]

"Pooh?" said Piglet.
"Yes, Piglet?" replied Pooh.
"Is everything going to be OK?"
"In what way, Piglet?" asked Pooh.
Piglet rubbed his nose in a nervous sort of way. "You know, with Brexit. And rationing. And 729 international treaties to re-negotiate from scratch just to get back to here. And," the Piglet ran out of breath then made a small choking noise and swallowed. "And all that?" he finished and looked over at Pooh with a hopeful look.
Pooh Bear rubbed his nose too, but didn't find it quite as comforting as it seemed to be for the Piglet.
"Well, Piglet." Pooh said and then stopped to think some more, for this was a very Big Thing for a Bear of Very Little Brain to consider. "Well Piglet," he finally continued, "It all sounds like a very silly idea to me."
Pooh and Piglet looked out over the Hundred Acre Wood and contemplated the matter. Quietly, Piglet slipped his paw into Pooh's.
"We're totally f#ck@d, aren't we?" the Piglet managed in a hoarse whisper.
"Oh yes." replied Pooh, patting his paw. "Completely f#ck@d."

[Grouse]

2 hours ago, loong said:

Absolutely meaningless

It means you do not understand statistics!

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, loong said:

The survey interviewed 2,048 subjects 

This sample of 1 along with many others will agree that the sample is so small compared to the adult population that it cannot pretend to be an accurate reflection of the population's opinion.

2 to the 11! Interesting!

[Grouse]

21 minutes ago, Nigel Garvie said:

"Pooh?" said Piglet.
"Yes, Piglet?" replied Pooh.
"Is everything going to be OK?"
"In what way, Piglet?" asked Pooh.
Piglet rubbed his nose in a nervous sort of way. "You know, with Brexit. And rationing. And 729 international treaties to re-negotiate from scratch just to get back to here. And," the Piglet ran out of breath then made a small choking noise and swallowed. "And all that?" he finished and looked over at Pooh with a hopeful look.
Pooh Bear rubbed his nose too, but didn't find it quite as comforting as it seemed to be for the Piglet.
"Well, Piglet." Pooh said and then stopped to think some more, for this was a very Big Thing for a Bear of Very Little Brain to consider. "Well Piglet," he finally continued, "It all sounds like a very silly idea to me."
Pooh and Piglet looked out over the Hundred Acre Wood and contemplated the matter. Quietly, Piglet slipped his paw into Pooh's.
"We're totally f#ck@d, aren't we?" the Piglet managed in a hoarse whisper.
"Oh yes." replied Pooh, patting his paw. "Completely f#ck@d."

Post of the year!

[Spidey]

1 minute ago, Grouse said:

Post of the year!

No contest. We have a literary giant on the board. Made my day.

[Thingamabob]

Meaningless exercise. Just get on and get out.

[mfd101]

58 minutes ago, Spidey said:

I'm sure that sane Brexiteers, now realise that they were sold a dream that turned into a nightmare.

 

Worryingly similar to Trumpeteers. Both groups nailed their colours to the mast and now just can't back down, no matter how much the mountain of evidence tells them that they've made the wrong choice. Farang "face".

 

Its interesting that roughly 80% of Trump supporters remain loyal and roughly 80% of Brexit supporters remain loyal.

 

Does this mean that 80% of people find it difficult to admit that they were wrong, or that 80% of us are pathologically stupid?

 

If the referendum were to be re-run tomorrow, it would undoubtedly come out on the side of Remain.

You're assuming that lack of information made people vote for Brexit. Probably true in some cases but I suspect Brexit-voting & Trump-voting is more like the basic prejudices we're all born with (racism, homophobia & sexism) and which, in civilized parts of the world, we are subsequently trained out of.

 

The point is that Brexit, like the great prejudices of mankind, is basically about EMOTIONS. Lack of information did not cause it. Supplying more information will not, mostly, make it go away. You have to change people's emotions.

[Chomper Higgot]

1 hour ago, loong said:

The survey interviewed 2,048 subjects 

This sample of 1 along with many others will agree that the sample is so small compared to the adult population that it cannot pretend to be an accurate reflection of the population's opinion.

You can agree what you want but what you agree means nothing unless mathematically sound.

 

A sample size of 2048 from an electorate of around 47 million will give a confidence level of 95% with a confidence interval of slightly over +/-2%.

Edited September 5, 2018 by Chomper Higgot

[loong]

45 minutes ago, Grouse said:

It means you do not understand statistics!

Please explain to me

What is the adult population of the UK

50 million? I don't know.

2000 is 1 in 25,000, that is way too small to believe that it is statistically relevant.

[Baerboxer]

3 hours ago, loong said:

Absolutely meaningless

 

Why? Try researching statistical sampling before you reply.

[Baerboxer]

1 hour ago, Tchooptip said:

"British opinion still deeply divided by Brexit: poll"

Yes, young working generations on one side and old and bitter generation on the other!

 

 

 

 

Not necessarily true

[Baerboxer]

1 hour ago, JAG said:

The matter was put to the electorate in a referendum. A subsequent general election, whilst it produced a weak and incompetent government, did not demonstrate any desire to change that

 

Why should the imminent party conferences, which by definition are the playground of political activists/enthusiasts and the media do so?

 

 

The referendum was legally created as "advisory". The result very close and the then and subsequent Tory governments tried to circumvent parliamentary procedure to implement the result how they wished.

 

The snap election was not fought on a reversal of Brexit by the Opposition whose current Leader is known to have always wanted out of the EU.

 

Both the Tories and Labor have too much infighting going on to worry about much else at their conferences.

[vogie]

7 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Why? Try researching statistical sampling before you reply.

If polls are so marvellous and reliable, why do they get it wrong, like the lead up to brexit, polls showed that remain was a clear leader.

[sjbrownderby]

About three years ago I saw Nigel Farage down the pub. He was outside supping a pint and smoking a fag............in the rain! Bit strange I thought,  but anyway he reckoned that if I voted 'leave' I'd get an extra ten thousand pound a week in me pension. Does anyone know how I can apply for the extra money? 

[vogie]

1 minute ago, sjbrownderby said:

About three years ago I saw Nigel Farage down the pub. He was outside supping a pint and smoking a fag............in the rain! Bit strange I thought,  but anyway he reckoned that if I voted 'leave' I'd get an extra ten thousand pound a week in me pension. Does anyone know how I can apply for the extra money? 

Is that a month or a year?

[RuamRudy]

19 minutes ago, vogie said:

If polls are so marvellous and reliable, why do they get it wrong, like the lead up to brexit, polls showed that remain was a clear leader.

Because then Farage and his friends would not have been able to conspire to rook the currency markets for 300 million pounds?

[aright]

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

It means you do not understand statistics!

Nor you. I didn't build successful businesses on the basis of statistics. I built them on the basis of judgement...….far more valuable.

[Chomper Higgot]

35 minutes ago, loong said:

Please explain to me

What is the adult population of the UK

50 million? I don't know.

2000 is 1 in 25,000, that is way too small to believe that it is statistically relevant.

The UK electorate comprises about 47,000,000 people.

 

A statistical sample needs to be random and of sufficient size to attain a confidence level and a confidence interval (These are defined and provable mathematical properties).

 

A sample size of 2048 from an electorate of around 47 million will give a confidence level of 95% with a confidence interval of slightly over +/-2%.

 

That’s a mathematical fact, not some feeling in your granny’s bones opinion.

[loong]

34 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Why? Try researching statistical sampling before you reply.

I have no need to research anything, common sense tells me that a poll of 0.004% is not going to reflect the opinion accurately