1 hour ago, Grouse said:

1) History

 

2) Statistics give a probability not a proof. I can prove that they do provide a probability if you wish?

At last! Someone who understands statistics. I am hopeless at it.

Can you please explain to me how statistical probabilities can vary dependent on whether you use stratified, voluntary response or cluster samples.

I tend to use simple random populations but am not sure that serves my needs to always be right.? 

2 hours ago, nauseus said:

You say: "It is also slightly worrying that the Brexit vote was effectively decided by people who had shown so little interest in the future of their country previously that they had never felt the need to vote".

 

How do you know that to be true? And even if it is, then that must reflect badly on an assumed group of remainers that has never turned out to vote on anything and that has not shown any interest in the future of their country at all, ever. 

I don't know it to be true, it was just the logical conclusion to be drawn from the facts and probabilities I had mentioned previously in the post. I don't have the exact figures, but it has been shown pretty conclusively that the number of people who voted Leave, never having before voted in an election despite being eligible to do so, was higher than the Leave majority in the Referendum.

I fail to understand your second point. There were obviously some people who had never voted before that also didn't vote in the Referendum. If they had done, some no doubt would have voted Remain, others Leave. Why does that reflect badly on the first group and not the second?

In an earlier post I suggested that it would be much more constructive to produce a counter-argument to my theories, as opposed to simply attacking one of my conclusions and thinking that by doing so it invalidates the whole argument. Why do you think the pollsters got it so wrong?

Edited September 5, 20187 yr by Stupooey
Emphasis - bold type required to clarify

7 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

If you don’t trust statistics at all don’t ever fly anywhere, drive a car, ride in an elevator take any medication.

 

The safety of all these any many others things in our modern life is determined by statistics and very specifically by the exact mathematics of sampling and ‘confidence’ measurement applied in polls.

 

Well I have been statistically taking the medicines for my heart condition since 2006, I haven't flown anywhere since 2009 but before that I flew many times in service and civilian aircraft over 50 years, rode motorbikes on and off for 56 years and only had 1 accident, drove cars, buses, trucks, fork lift trucks on and off for 55 years with only a couple of minor shunts, don't use elevators but walk upstairs. I guess that statistics may y not be in  my favour, however I am 74 and still plodding along.

 

Somewhere in that pile I must statistically have had a serious injury or have died.

 

Sorry to disappoint you.

1 hour ago, dunroaming said:

Every time the results of a poll or survey are posted they are pulled to pieces by the same tired old arguments.  The interview with Lord King (ex governor of the Bank of England) today where he said that the preparations for Brexit are "incompetent" will be pulled to pieces to.  The GMB backing a second referendum will be pooh poohed  and every other piece of news that doesn't suit the Brexiteers argument will be treated the same way.  The denial goes on and will do endlessly.

 

Mostly from the Remainers.

14 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

The views of a at least half the electorate are not being represented 

 

An issue that will show up in the forthcoming Party Political Conferences.

 

 

Millions of people voted in the Brexit referendum compared to the 2048 in this latest poll.  Which poll do you think is more representative? 

1 minute ago, Retiredandhappyhere said:

Millions of people voted in the Brexit referendum compared to the 2048 in this latest poll.  Which poll do you think is more representative? 

I'm guessing you come from an alternative universe where time doesn't exist.

7 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

If you don’t trust statistics at all don’t ever fly anywhere, drive a car, ride in an elevator take any medication.

 

The safety of all these any many others things in our modern life is determined by statistics and very specifically by the exact mathematics of sampling and ‘confidence’ measurement applied in polls.

What? Under the Consumer Rights Act 2015 all products must be "fit for purpose."  They meet this specification as a result of quality electrical, mechanical, medical etc.  engineering not statistics. As for pilots and drivers they reach proficiency through education, examination, supervision and experience....not statistics.

1 minute ago, bristolboy said:

I'm guessing you come from an alternative universe where time doesn't exist.

Whether or not you believe the negotiations are going well or badly, the end result is not yet known, so the time which has elapsed between the Brexit referendum and the present day is pretty meaningless in that context. The only time in which a true judgement can be made is when the final deal is known.  As I keep saying, the EU is famous for compromise solutions to problems at the eleventh hour, and the eleventh hour is not here yet. As for an alternative Universe, I would prefer to live there rather than staying in the EU, which you clearly believe is absolute Utopia.

13 hours ago, marko kok prong said:

As someone who has investments in the Uk,as well as any other Uk expats who do or who have pensions ect,this is looking grim for the pound and our exchange rates,a no deal scenario i can see it falling below 40 baht.

Maybe, but, for some people Brexit was not all about money.  Like many ex-pats I have been badly affected money-wise by Brexit but I am still pleased to be exiting the EU, believing that, in the long term, the UK will be better without having many of its policies and decisions made supposedly jointly with 27 other countries, most of whom are still a long way from the UK's economic position in the world, despite all the disparaging remarks  and doom and gloom expressed on here.

12 hours ago, Spidey said:

I'm sure that sane Brexiteers, now realise that they were sold a dream that turned into a nightmare.

 

Worryingly similar to Trumpeteers. Both groups nailed their colours to the mast and now just can't back down, no matter how much the mountain of evidence tells them that they've made the wrong choice. Farang "face".

 

Its interesting that roughly 80% of Trump supporters remain loyal and roughly 80% of Brexit supporters remain loyal.

 

Does this mean that 80% of people find it difficult to admit that they were wrong, or that 80% of us are pathologically stupid?

 

If the referendum were to be re-run tomorrow, it would undoubtedly come out on the side of Remain.

I would think that it means that 80% believe they made the right decision.

11 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

You can agree what you want but what you agree means nothing unless mathematically sound.

 

A sample size of 2048 from an electorate of around 47 million will give a confidence level of 95% with a confidence interval of slightly over +/-2%.

Assuming of course that it was a totally representative sample.  I believe that the "leave" vote in the Brexit referendum took most polls using much larger samples completely by surprise

3 minutes ago, Retiredandhappyhere said:

Assuming of course that it was a totally representative sample.  I believe that the "leave" vote in the Brexit referendum took most polls using much larger samples completely by surprise

Not at all. The results were within the margin of error. There's a belief going around that the polls got it wrong big time. Actually they showed a very closes race right up to the end. Who did get it wrong were the pundits who were mostly engaged in wishful thinking.

10 hours ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Not necessarily true

Which was in reply to Tchooptip  who said:

"British opinion still deeply divided by Brexit: poll"

Yes, young working generations on one side and old and bitter generation on the other!

 

 

But it is presumably the result of his own personal poll.

10 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

Lots of companies and organisations believe differently, otherwise they would not repeatedly pay top dollar for polling data.

 

I can understand you scepticism - it seems counter intuitive indeed, but here is an article from Scientific American which explains the principle:

 

How can a poll of only 1,004 Americans represent 260 million people with only a 3 percent margin of error?

Many companies and organisations pay top dollar for polling data to ensure that they get the result that they want.

9 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

I am not from the UK but I follow the news about Brexit like a soap opera - except nobody would believe such a plot in a soap opera.

I can understand that some people are not happy with the EU and maybe they voted leave because somehow they though it must be better outside of the EU.

But after reading probably hundreds or articles I can't see how the UK could be possibly better off without the EU. Soft or hard or no deal it's all bad or very bad for the UK. And it should be obvious to everyone who follows the news.

I think this is one of those examples which show that it's not a good idea to let uneducated, uninformed people make decisions about important issues. Democracy with idiots does not work in the way it was intended to work.

Another person, (this time not even British) who believes that he knows enough about the UK to be able to call everyone who voted for Brexit  "uneducated and uninformed idiots".   

39 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Not at all. The results were within the margin of error. There's a belief going around that the polls got it wrong big time. Actually they showed a very closes race right up to the end. Who did get it wrong were the pundits who were mostly engaged in wishful thinking.

If the correct answer is "YES" and the polls said "NO" I would still say that they got it wrong big time.

42 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Not at all. The results were within the margin of error. There's a belief going around that the polls got it wrong big time. Actually they showed a very closes race right up to the end. Who did get it wrong were the pundits who were mostly engaged in wishful thinking.

Are you talking exit polls or opinion polls, whilst I would agree that the exit polls were pretty accurate, the opinion polls polls were miles out.

11 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

The UK electorate comprises about 47,000,000 people.

 

A statistical sample needs to be random and of sufficient size to attain a confidence level and a confidence interval (These are defined and provable mathematical properties).

 

A sample size of 2048 from an electorate of around 47 million will give a confidence level of 95% with a confidence interval of slightly over +/-2%.

 

That’s a mathematical fact, not some feeling in your granny’s bones opinion.

Mathematical fact? Big words. Hillary had pollsters by the bundle but still got knocked out of the park. There are no facts. We make up stuff as we go along. A good example is the third paragraph. 

Edited September 5, 20187 yr by Machiavelli

3 hours ago, dunroaming said:

But only posted on TV once.

As a cut n tuck, yes, maybe?

Edited September 5, 20187 yr by nauseus
maybe?

2 hours ago, Stupooey said:

I don't know it to be true, it was just the logical conclusion to be drawn from the facts and probabilities I had mentioned previously in the post. I don't have the exact figures, but it has been shown pretty conclusively that the number of people who voted Leave, never having before voted in an election despite being eligible to do so, was higher than the Leave majority in the Referendum.

I fail to understand your second point. There were obviously some people who had never voted before that also didn't vote in the Referendum. If they had done, some no doubt would have voted Remain, others Leave. Why does that reflect badly on the first group and not the second?

In an earlier post I suggested that it would be much more constructive to produce a counter-argument to my theories, as opposed to simply attacking one of my conclusions and thinking that by doing so it invalidates the whole argument. Why do you think the pollsters got it so wrong?

Answer to your final question (only): either bias (for whatever reason) or just plain unprofessionalism.

1 hour ago, Retiredandhappyhere said:

Another person, (this time not even British) who believes that he knows enough about the UK to be able to call everyone who voted for Brexit  "uneducated and uninformed idiots".   

idiots at least is too much for sure. Uneducated impossible to know. Uniformed or very well informed would not have changed anything...Since it was a vote mainly with the guts.

6 hours ago, Retiredandhappyhere said:

Another person, (this time not even British) who believes that he knows enough about the UK to be able to call everyone who voted for Brexit  "uneducated and uninformed idiots".   

Oh, what gift the giftie gie us.....

 

Often very insightful to have someone on the outside, looking in, pass comment. They have no dog in the fight and, therefore, don't have the bias and prejudice that the rest of us have.

 

I have taught Americans on this board a great deal about Trump.

6 hours ago, Machiavelli said:

Mathematical fact? Big words. Hillary had pollsters by the bundle but still got knocked out of the park. There are no facts. We make up stuff as we go along. A good example is the third paragraph. 

Not exactly "knocked out of the park". She did get more votes than Trump.

7 hours ago, Retiredandhappyhere said:

I would think that it means that 80% believe they made the right decision.

Not one of the options I gave. Maybe you mean,  "want to believe they made the right decision" which comes under "farang face".

10 hours ago, Retiredandhappyhere said:

Whether or not you believe the negotiations are going well or badly, the end result is not yet known, so the time which has elapsed between the Brexit referendum and the present day is pretty meaningless in that context. The only time in which a true judgement can be made is when the final deal is known.  As I keep saying, the EU is famous for compromise solutions to problems at the eleventh hour, and the eleventh hour is not here yet. As for an alternative Universe, I would prefer to live there rather than staying in the EU, which you clearly believe is absolute Utopia.

Now you're saying that the accuracy of the current polls don't matter because the question hasn't been decided yet.. That's entirely different from saying that they're invalid because of sample size or because of earlier history. And of course nothing in my explanation of the faults of your analysis has anything logical connection with whether or not I support Brexit or my feelings about the EU. Yours is a transparent attempt at deflection.

Edited September 6, 20187 yr by bristolboy

9 hours ago, nauseus said:

Answer to your final question (only): either bias (for whatever reason) or just plain unprofessionalism.

If it was due to bias, then it seems very strange that very nearly all the polls were biased in the same direction. One would have expected 52% of pollsters to be Leave voters and 48% to be Remain; perhaps they both thought their side would gain an advantage by putting Remain ahead, but it seems very unlikely.

Unprofessionalism I would agree with, insofar as - just like the UK Government - they mistakenly applied the same parameters to the Referendum as they would to a General Election. 

I still believe my original explanation, regarding the treatment of previous non-voters, is the most likely one. At least it is backed up by figures, you have just plucked two words from the air with no facts to back them up.

Edited September 6, 20187 yr by Stupooey
Repetition

10 hours ago, Retiredandhappyhere said:

Whether or not you believe the negotiations are going well or badly, the end result is not yet known, so the time which has elapsed between the Brexit referendum and the present day is pretty meaningless in that context. 

Except that since the referendum over half a million Leave voters have died, and been replaced on the Electoral Roll by 18 and 19 year olds, who are likely to be mainly Remain supporters, if they follow the established pattern. Just one explanation for the shift in opinion over the last two years.

10 hours ago, Retiredandhappyhere said:

Another person, (this time not even British) who believes that he knows enough about the UK to be able to call everyone who voted for Brexit  "uneducated and uninformed idiots".   

You know there is this wonderful invention called Internet. It allows people all over the world to look at news from all over the world. I read regularly articles from UK news, European news and even Al Jazeera. I read probably more than 100 articles which lots of facts why leaving the EU is a bad idea. I don't think I even read one article why leaving the EU would be good for the UK.

Obviously there are lots of articles like from Boris Johnson which make people dream about a better future. But without any meaningful facts. What do the hard Brexiters really want? Where is their detailed plan? They don't have a plan. They just criticize other people's plans.

I am not so ignorant that I think the EU is only good. It's obvious that the EU is far away from perfect. But it's still the best option.

People can dream how perfect this world would be without being in the EU. But it's exactly that, a dream. Reality is different.

And that brings us back to "uneducated and uninformed idiots". Smart people make decisions bases on reality and not on wonderful unrealistic dreams.

3 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

You know there is this wonderful invention called Internet. It allows people all over the world to look at news from all over the world. I read regularly articles from UK news, European news and even Al Jazeera. I read probably more than 100 articles which lots of facts why leaving the EU is a bad idea. I don't think I even read one article why leaving the EU would be good for the UK.

Obviously there are lots of articles like from Boris Johnson which make people dream about a better future. But without any meaningful facts. What do the hard Brexiters really want? Where is their detailed plan? They don't have a plan. They just criticize other people's plans.

I am not so ignorant that I think the EU is only good. It's obvious that the EU is far away from perfect. But it's still the best option.

People can dream how perfect this world would be without being in the EU. But it's exactly that, a dream. Reality is different.

And that brings us back to "uneducated and uninformed idiots". Smart people make decisions bases on reality and not on wonderful unrealistic dreams.

Did the internet make you rude and patronizing too?

10 hours ago, vogie said:

Are you talking exit polls or opinion polls, whilst I would agree that the exit polls were pretty accurate, the opinion polls polls were miles out.

really?

https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/