59 minutes ago, Happy enough said:

Brexiteers voted and won. Do all the polls and maths you like but the uk chose to leave and they are. Annoying I know as my money is also generated there but they voted and leave they will. Time will tell if it was the right thing to do but you can’t change it and neither will some poxy poll 

Technically that's true. But I wonder how many of those people wanted any of the versions of Brexit which are now on the table.

 

I never understood why people voted for Brexit until I read an interesting article which basically explained that over many years lots of UK politicians of any political party basically blamed anything bad on the EU. If something went right then the UK politicians did it right. And if something was wrong then the EU was to blame. If you hear something like that for years I can understand that people thought let's get rid of the bad EU because our politicians can do all that so much better. But if these voters followed what happened in the last two years they must have realized that many UK politicians are totally incompetent. What did they archive in the last two years? They still didn't make up their mind if they want hard or soft Brexit or if crashing out or staying in is best. How can the EU agree to anything as long as the UK politicians didn't make up their mind (with a majority) what they want.

At least one thing is 100% clear by now: The UK government and parliament are totally incompetent.

51 minutes ago, Happy enough said:

Brexiteers voted and won. Do all the polls and maths you like but the uk chose to leave and they are. Annoying I know as my money is also generated there but they voted and leave they will. Time will tell if it was the right thing to do but you can’t change it and neither will some poxy poll 

Yes we still keep heading for Brexit and that is still the likeliest outcome.  But the voices for a final say on the result (not a second referendum) are growing louder as it becomes more and more apparent that Brexit doesn't mean Brexit at all.  Brexit now means some sort of hodgepodge that lets down both sides, for and against.

 

And yes May is still saying no second referendum as she clings desperately on.  She will make concessions on the Chequers plan because nobody is buying that and the EU won't accept it anyway.  At least both sides agree that proposition was unworkable.  So I guess we are now waiting for the "Boris Plan".  Then see if it holds water and is adopted as the way forward.  I wonder if that will just be a hot aired version of no deal? 

2 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Technically that's true. But I wonder how many of those people wanted any of the versions of Brexit which are now on the table.

 

I never understood why people voted for Brexit until I read an interesting article which basically explained that over many years lots of UK politicians of any political party basically blamed anything bad on the EU. If something went right then the UK politicians did it right. And if something was wrong then the EU was to blame. If you hear something like that for years I can understand that people thought let's get rid of the bad EU because our politicians can do all that so much better. But if these voters followed what happened in the last two years they must have realized that many UK politicians are totally incompetent. What did they archive in the last two years? They still didn't make up their mind if they want hard or soft Brexit or if crashing out or staying in is best. How can the EU agree to anything as long as the UK politicians didn't make up their mind (with a majority) what they want.

At least one thing is 100% clear by now: The UK government and parliament are totally incompetent.

A great deal of sense in that post!

2 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Technically that's true. But I wonder how many of those people wanted any of the versions of Brexit which are now on the table.

 

I never understood why people voted for Brexit until I read an interesting article which basically explained that over many years lots of UK politicians of any political party basically blamed anything bad on the EU. If something went right then the UK politicians did it right. And if something was wrong then the EU was to blame. If you hear something like that for years I can understand that people thought let's get rid of the bad EU because our politicians can do all that so much better. But if these voters followed what happened in the last two years they must have realized that many UK politicians are totally incompetent. What did they archive in the last two years? They still didn't make up their mind if they want hard or soft Brexit or if crashing out or staying in is best. How can the EU agree to anything as long as the UK politicians didn't make up their mind (with a majority) what they want.

At least one thing is 100% clear by now: The UK government and parliament are totally incompetent.

They certainly seem to be, i’d agree. My understanding of politics and the whole brexit thing is pretty poor. Be nice to see the pound up against the baht one day though. It’s terrible at the mo. That’s all I really care about but not even sure brexit has anything to do with that 

2 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

Yes we still keep heading for Brexit and that is still the likeliest outcome.  But the voices for a final say on the result (not a second referendum) are growing louder as it becomes more and more apparent that Brexit doesn't mean Brexit at all.  Brexit now means some sort of hodgepodge that lets down both sides, for and against.

 

And yes May is still saying no second referendum as she clings desperately on.  She will make concessions on the Chequers plan because nobody is buying that and the EU won't accept it anyway.  At least both sides agree that proposition was unworkable.  So I guess we are now waiting for the "Boris Plan".  Then see if it holds water and is adopted as the way forward.  I wonder if that will just be a hot aired version of no deal? 

The almost funny thing is that many politicians still pretend the Chequers plan is still an option. It has no support in the UK and the EU said already it's impossible. What's next? Why do lots of politicians still pretend that plan is still an option?

The truth is that the Brit pollies & government don't KNOW what to do. They've backed themselves into a rather dark & very tight little corner (with all their 'red lines' ie false promises to this one and that one) and they can't move either forward or backward.

 

Hell is paved with self-contradictions.

4 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

Lots of companies and organisations believe differently, otherwise they would not repeatedly pay top dollar for polling data.

 

I can understand you scepticism - it seems counter intuitive indeed, but here is an article from Scientific American which explains the principle:

 

How can a poll of only 1,004 Americans represent 260 million people with only a 3 percent margin of error?

For goodness sake don't bring up quantum mechanics!

8 minutes ago, mfd101 said:

The truth is that the Brit pollies & government don't KNOW what to do. They've backed themselves into a rather dark & very tight little corner (with all their 'red lines' ie false promises to this one and that one) and they can't move either forward or backward.

 

Hell is paved with self-contradictions.

I agree

And there is no sensible compromise. It's hard Brexit (including crash) or it's like being in the EU following the laws, paying money, but without anything to say. There is no half way compromise between these positions. And if anybody would agree on a compromise then after Brexit rightfully everybody could say: I told you so, it doesn't work.

I think the UK as a whole has to crash out of the EU and feel the shock. Only then will they realize what they lost. But then it's too late. Maybe then they need a new referendum to apply for membership in the EU...

 

5 hours ago, vogie said:

If polls are so marvellous and reliable, why do they get it wrong, like the lead up to brexit, polls showed that remain was a clear leader.

They are probabilities not guarantees.

5 hours ago, aright said:

Nor you. I didn't build successful businesses on the basis of statistics. I built them on the basis of judgement...….far more valuable.

Sadly I do understand stats AND vector calculus.

 

I'm happy you have a successful business!

4 hours ago, aright said:

Correct, and common sense will tell you if you flip a coin Schrodinger's pet cat will still be in the box.

More data means more information with the codicil it also means more false information.

Deary me, you really don't understand. 

2 hours ago, Happy enough said:

Brexiteers voted and won. Do all the polls and maths you like but the uk chose to leave and they are. Annoying I know as my money is also generated there but they voted and leave they will. Time will tell if it was the right thing to do but you can’t change it and neither will some poxy poll 

Parliament can change anything to damn well likes!

9 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Parliament can change anything to damn well likes!

Will they though? In your opinion 

I wonder if knowledge of statistics is corollated with voting remain?

 

I find it worrying that a majority of staunch brexiters seem to struggle with statistical concepts. SHould we trust them? 

10 minutes ago, Happy enough said:

Will they though? In your opinion 

There are too few real parliamentarians now. Most will vote to protect themselves rather than vote as they truly believe.

4 minutes ago, Grouse said:

I wonder if knowledge of statistics is corollated with voting remain?

 

I find it worrying that a majority of staunch brexiters seem to struggle with statistical concepts. SHould we trust them? 

So you are also condoning the junta then to a certain extent are you not? Because some in bkk would suggest that most red shirt supporters just aren’t educated enough for their vote to count? The people in the uk voted. They are leaving. I really don’t understand why you don’t just accept it and move on. Call people stupid as much as you want and who cares the stats. They already voted!!!! They are leaving 

13 minutes ago, Happy enough said:

So you are also condoning the junta then to a certain extent are you not? Because some in bkk would suggest that most red shirt supporters just aren’t educated enough for their vote to count? The people in the uk voted. They are leaving. I really don’t understand why you don’t just accept it and move on. Call people stupid as much as you want and who cares the stats. They already voted!!!! They are leaving 

I will not comment on politics in Thailand

 

Regarding the remainder of your post:

 

For the same reason that we protect people from self harm!

 

Are you admitting, on a public forum, that you actually still believe Brexit is a good idea? 

Edited September 5, 20187 yr by Grouse

3 hours ago, vogie said:

So if the people are unreliable, the polls will be unreliable too.

Yes that sums it up pretty well: change the word “people” to “sample”, and it sums it up perfectly.

 

The sample of people polled has to reflect the voting behaviour of the actual voters perfectly for the stats to be meaningful. And this is where electoral polls often fall down. Other factors too, undecided voters, complacency, availability, tactical voting, switching etc. The sample must be representative for it to be meaningful.

 

For example, this thread is about “British opinion” as per the title. But it wouldn’t be possible to use the posters on this thread to sample British opinion on Brexit as a good many of the most vociferous remainer posters are not British. Therefore they are an unrepresentative sample.

 

PS. The maths of statistics is well-proven and that’s what the remainers here are quoting. Didn’t make them right before the referendum, and it doesn’t make them right now. I did a substantial amount of stats on my Bachelor’s and Master’s, it’s a subject I enjoyed a lot, and still do.

 

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

 

Still on my hols. Will pop in again next week. Have a good evening.

12 minutes ago, Grouse said:

I will not comment on politics in Thailand

 

Regarding the remainder of your post:

 

For the same reason that we protect people from self harm!

 

Are you admitting, on a public forum, that you actually still believe Brexit is a good idea? 

I’m admitting on a public forum that I have no idea but it is for those who live in the uk to decide and I thought they already did 

7 hours ago, Grouse said:

Post of the year!

Which year? It's been all over the internet for ages.

59 minutes ago, Grouse said:

I wonder if knowledge of statistics is corollated with voting remain?

 

I find it worrying that a majority of staunch brexiters seem to struggle with statistical concepts. SHould we trust them? 

I have to admit you are phenomenal at the theory side of statistics, but in reality I fear you would get lost in a one way maze.

57 minutes ago, Grouse said:

I wonder if knowledge of statistics is corollated with voting remain?

 

I find it worrying that a majority of staunch brexiters seem to struggle with statistical concepts. SHould we trust them? 

Very strange, maybe I missed the posts where posters declared whether they voted remain or not. Did some of your statistical data lead you to believe that they did?

There is no mathematical calculation that proves the accuracy of a poll of 0.004% of the people. It can only be proved by comparing the results of a poll of 0.004% against a poll of 100%. Without that it is a theory, not a fact.

10 minutes ago, Happy enough said:

I’m admitting on a public forum that I have no idea but it is for those who live in the uk to decide and I thought they already did 

The question to leave or remain did not advise the  complexities  of a "leave"outcome. Now that the actuality of the outcome of  the vote based on resentment of perceived negatives is becoming  increasingly apparent. If the  UK  Government  had had a follow up referendum outlining the impact in order to have genuine governing legitimacy the  debacle as it is could have been  avoided.

Possibly.

The reality is international politics are trending  towards contrived  autocracies. 

Democracy as we have been led to perceive it is rapidly devolving.

 

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

For goodness sake don't bring up quantum mechanics!

Give us a break, quantum mechanics, it's not rocket science.

6 hours ago, Stupooey said:

I have offered an explanation for this anomaly several times in different threads, and to date nobody has challenged me or offered an alternative logical explanation, so here it is again:

 

When someone is interviewed for a poll, they are generally asked how they have voted in the past. If they say they have never bothered to vote before, the pollsters exclude them from the results they declare, assuming their subject will not break the habit of a lifetime. The problem with the Referendum was that a huge number of people who had never voted in a General Election turned out. I have seen the figure of 2.8 million first time voters quoted - this seems very high so presumably includes the 18 and 19 year olds, but there appear to have been well over a million, and the vast majority of this group voted Leave. This would have been sufficient to overturn the pre-Referendum polling figures and produce the final result.

 

I personally believe that this led to complacency among Remain supporters, many of whom did not vote thinking victory was assured (a significant majority of non-voters say they would have voted Remain). It is also slightly worrying that the Brexit vote was effectively decided by people who had shown so little interest in the future of their country previously that they had never felt the need to vote.

 

 

 

 

You say: "It is also slightly worrying that the Brexit vote was effectively decided by people who had shown so little interest in the future of their country previously that they had never felt the need to vote".

 

How do you know that to be true? And even if it is, then that must reflect badly on an assumed group of remainers that has never turned out to vote on anything and that has not shown any interest in the future of their country at all, ever. 

Edited September 5, 20187 yr by nauseus

54 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

Yes that sums it up pretty well: change the word “people” to “sample”, and it sums it up perfectly.

 

The sample of people polled has to reflect the voting behaviour of the actual voters perfectly for the stats to be meaningful. And this is where electoral polls often fall down. Other factors too, undecided voters, complacency, availability, tactical voting, switching etc. The sample must be representative for it to be meaningful.

 

For example, this thread is about “British opinion” as per the title. But it wouldn’t be possible to use the posters on this thread to sample British opinion on Brexit as a good many of the most vociferous remainer posters are not British. Therefore they are an unrepresentative sample.

 

PS. The maths of statistics is well-proven and that’s what the remainers here are quoting. Didn’t make them right before the referendum, and it doesn’t make them right now. I did a substantial amount of stats on my Bachelor’s and Master’s, it’s a subject I enjoyed a lot, and still do.

 

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

 

Still on my hols. Will pop in again next week. Have a good evening.

"The sample of people polled has to reflect the voting behaviour of the actual voters perfectly for the stats to be meaningful." 

Anybody who would write this could not possibly have even a passing acquaintance with statistics. Does' the phrase "margin of error" have any meaning to you? How about "confidence level." What you have written here is utter nonsense and goes against the very heart of what statistics is all about.

 

40 minutes ago, loong said:

Very strange, maybe I missed the posts where posters declared whether they voted remain or not. Did some of your statistical data lead you to believe that they did?

There is no mathematical calculation that proves the accuracy of a poll of 0.004% of the people. It can only be proved by comparing the results of a poll of 0.004% against a poll of 100%. Without that it is a theory, not a fact.

1) History

 

2) Statistics give a probability not a proof. I can prove that they do provide a probability if you wish?

I have no need to research anything, common sense tells me that a poll of 0.004% is not going to reflect the opinion accurately

Let me go out on a limb here. You voted for Brexit. How did I know? Common sense, of course.

Sent from my SM-N950U1 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

1 hour ago, nauseus said:

Which year? It's been all over the internet for ages.

But only posted on TV once.

Every time the results of a poll or survey are posted they are pulled to pieces by the same tired old arguments.  The interview with Lord King (ex governor of the Bank of England) today where he said that the preparations for Brexit are "incompetent" will be pulled to pieces to.  The GMB backing a second referendum will be pooh poohed  and every other piece of news that doesn't suit the Brexiteers argument will be treated the same way.  The denial goes on and will do endlessly.