Disorder, deal or dead-end: How will Brexit play out?

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Disorder, deal or dead-end: How will Brexit play out?

By Guy Faulconbridge

 

An anti-Brexit demonstrator waves flags outside the Houses of Parliament, in London, Britain, September 10, 2018. REUTERS/Hannah McKay/Files

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain leaves the European Union on March 29, yet little is clear: There is, so far, no divorce deal, rivals to Prime Minister Theresa May are circling and some rebels have vowed to vote against a possible Brexit deal.

 

How will the Brexit finale play out?

 

Following are scenarios:

 

1) DISORDERLY BREXIT

 

If May is toppled, fails to reach an agreement with the EU or parliament rejects her deal, Britain would plunge into crisis. Many opponents of Brexit predict this outcome, as do some supporters of a deeper break with the EU than that advocated by the prime minister.

 

- MAY FALLS

 

May's snap election in 2017 lost her party its parliamentary majority. Her minority government is now propped up by 10 Democratic Unionist Party lawmakers from Northern Ireland.

 

Her Conservative Party, which has been split over Europe for 30 years, is in open conflict and some of her lawmakers want a new leader.

 

If May fell, selection of a new party leader would delay already tight Brexit negotiations. A national election is possible, though not legally necessary. Opinion polls show no party has a clear enough lead to predict victory confidently.

 

Poll ratings have fallen for Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, who voted 'out' in a 1975 referendum on membership of the then European Community.

 

Possible successors to May include former foreign secretary Boris Johnson, interior minister Sajid Javid, environment minister Michael Gove, current Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt and Dominic Raab, her Brexit minister.

 

Other possible contenders include Tom Tugendhat, a former soldier who chairs the parliamentary Foreign Affairs Select Committee, and hardline Brexiteer lawmaker Jacob Rees-Mogg.

 

A majority of Conservative lawmakers voted against Brexit in the 2016 referendum, but many have since switched while up to 80 of the 316 Conservative lawmakers now support a sharper split with the EU than May is proposing.

 

- NO DEAL

 

Both London and Brussels say they want a divorce deal, though there is limited time if the British and EU parliaments are to ratify a deal by March 29.

 

Two documents must be agreed: the Withdrawal Agreement Treaty and a declaration on the framework for a future relationship.

 

Agreeing an arrangement for the Northern Irish border with the Republic of Ireland is a hurdle, though diplomats said a deal could be clinched at the very last minute.

 

If May cannot get an overall deal in October or November, an agreement could be reached at the Dec. 13-14 EU Council.

 

- DEAL REJECTED

 

Any deal must be approved by British lawmakers. If they reject it, Britain would face leaving the EU without an agreement. The country would move from seamless trade with the EU to customs arrangements set by the World Trade Organization for external states.

 

Many business chiefs and investors say a "no-deal" Brexit would weaken the West, panic financial markets and block the arteries of trade. Brexit supporters say such fears are exaggerated and Britain would thrive in the long term outside the EU.

 

May is betting that fear of a "no-deal" outcome will push many Conservative and Labour lawmakers to support a deal.

 

Parliament will have votes on the Brexit deal and on the Withdrawal Agreement and Implementation Bill. In recent votes May has had a majority of around six on major Brexit issues.

 

In a no-deal scenario, other options include seeking an extension of the Brexit negotiations or parliament calling for a rerun of the referendum.

 

2) LAST MINUTE DEAL

 

British politicians are trying to persuade German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron to ensure the EU accepts a deal that May can sell to her parliament.

 

Around 85-90 percent of the Withdrawal Agreement text is settled, according to Cabinet Office minister David Lidington.

 

In that case, little would change immediately after Brexit day because a transition period would last until Dec. 31, 2020.

 

May has said she will fight the next UK election, due in 2022. However, she would probably face a challenge within her party soon after Brexit as few Conservative lawmakers think she can win a national election.

 

Business leaders fear politicians have given little thought to how the UK should operate in practice after it leaves the EU.

 

3) BREXIT REVERSED

 

If the UK slides into chaos, there is a chance Brexit could be stopped through a popular vote, though May rules out another Brexit referendum. Opinion polls show Britons remain divided, though some have recently signalled a swing towards support for staying in the EU.

 

A YouGov poll, conducted July 31-Aug. 7 for the pro-referendum "People's Vote" campaign, found 45 percent supported a new referendum whatever the outcome of talks with the EU, while 34 percent opposed it. [nL5N1V129O]

 

Calling a rerun of the referendum on what was a Conservative brainchild would sink the premiership of any leader of the party. Labour's Corbyn has indicated he does not support another referendum but has not explicitly ruled one out.

 

Brexit supporters say a second referendum would trigger a major constitutional crisis.

 

(Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge; editing by David Stamp)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2018-09-21

[Kadilo]

 Now Grayling has threatened the EU with a No Deal if they don’t soften their stance, I’m sure there will be a last minute deal as they must be shaking in their boots!

[OneMoreFarang]

It would be nice if the UK parliament would come to their senses but it seems that just does not happen.

I guess they will crash out. Not because they want it but because they don't find a better solution.

And in a way I think it's good if they crash out. Because then the people in the UK will experience the consequences of their useless government. And they can't blame the EU anymore because the UK politicians f%#$ it up, not the EU. The EU gave them several options since the very beginning.

 

And maybe after the crash people will come back to their senses and think how wonderful it would be to be part of the EU. Maybe they can apply again to be a member - this time without all the special deals for them.

 

Good luck - you need it.

[AGareth2]

no deal

no money

[Phuket Man]

Regardless of the non binding opinion poll of two years ago this nonsense needs to stop now before it is too late.

It's very clear that this is not going to end well for the UK and its citizens, especially the younger one who will be stuck with this for the rest of their lives.

Stop Brexit and stay in the EU is the only way out of this mess.

Edited September 21, 2018 by Phuket Man

[Rally123]

23 minutes ago, AGareth2 said:

no money

And what happens if we do not pay? I say stuff 'em.

 

21 minutes ago, Phuket Man said:

Stop Brexit and stay in the EU is the only way out of this mess.

It can't be stopped. There is no going back. You Remoaners don't seem to understand that. Roll on our exit.

[welovesundaysatspace]

3 minutes ago, Rally123 said:

And what happens if we do not pay? I say stuff 'em.

Maybe try it with your phone or gym contract to see what happens. 

 

Quote

It can't be stopped. There is no going back.

Sure it can be. The parliament could vote to stay, or to ask the EU for an extension to accommodate a second referendum, etc. 

 

Edited September 21, 2018 by welovesundaysatspace

[Rally123]

7 minutes ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

Maybe try it with your phone or gym contract to see what happens. 

 

I have neither. What courts can the EU take us to if it's at all possible.

[Guest]

17 minutes ago, Rally123 said:

And what happens if we do not pay? I say stuff 'em.

 

We'll call UK as Turkey number 2. 

 

Breach of agreement will probably go to the international courts, which then will make UK to pay. If UK still refuses.. there will be probably less co-operation between EU and UK.

[mfd101]

1 hour ago, AGareth2 said:

no deal

no money

True, but not a showstopper, for either side.

[Sir Dude]

Labour would be in the same pickle as the Tories are if they were in government. Corbyn is a Brexiteer at heart and has constantly voted against the EU at every opportunity for the last 40 years. There are lots of reasons Corbyn has dragged his feet on staying in the EU or having another referendum and one of them is his desire to re-nationalize public services if they get in, basically creating a state monopoly of these services (like trains etc.). If the UK is still in the EU then he has huge problems doing it as the EU has a slew of laws (more shortly coming too on this) making it extremely difficult (by design)...not to mention having to buy back the shares/stock from investors which if not done correctly would be a disaster for the UK business image. There are different ways to re-nationalize such things but it would a whole lot easier doing it from outside of EU law as some of the options to do this from within the EU might not be very palatable to Corbyn and his lefty momentum brigade. Not saying it can't be done but the EU is the large elephant on the tracks and before you can give the green light to nationalization there needs to be details as how it all will be done. I bet my bottom dollar that Corbyn would rather be out than in but his party is just as split on this as the Tories are. 

[DoctorG]

1 hour ago, oilinki said:

We'll call UK as Turkey number 2. 

 

Breach of agreement will probably go to the international courts, which then will make UK to pay. If UK still refuses.. there will be probably less co-operation between EU and UK.

UK should resign from IC as well.

[OneMoreFarang]

It's amazing that some people still pretend this can end somehow positive for the UK.

The EU is not perfect, but staying in the EU is still by far the best deal they will ever get. It's obvious for anybody who pays attention and uses a brain.

[David in the north]

14 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

It's amazing that some people still pretend this can end somehow positive for the UK.

The EU is not perfect, but staying in the EU is still by far the best deal they will ever get. It's obvious for anybody who pays attention and uses a brain.

Complete nonsense.

[brucec64]

Complete nonsense.

Please give your solution the the Irish problem. So far, on this thread and others totalling thousands of posts, I have not seen one solution from any pro brexit poster, nor any understanding of the short and long term implications of no deal.

Please enlighten us with your wisdom that allows you to degree "complete nonsense". Looks like May could use your help right now.

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[Sir Dude]

8 minutes ago, brucec64 said:

Please give your solution the the Irish problem. 

They can solve it with tech that is successfully used elsewhere if they really want to but this Ireland issue is being used as a weapon against the UK government as they (EU) don't want to discuss these solutions. However, if they do this then Ireland, especially the southern shores, will become the next magnet for illegal immigrants wanting to get to the UK and blag everything as new routes will be opened up from France to Ireland for all sorts of things. Hope the Irish are ready for it.

[DefaultName]

I want out, but I am sorry for May.  Parliament decisions forced her to go into negotiations with her cards face up.  She was on a loser before she started.

[brucec64]

They can solve it with tech that is successfully used elsewhere if they really want to but this Ireland issue is being used as a weapon against the UK government as they (EU) don't want to discuss these solutions. However, if they do this then Ireland, especially the southern shores, will become the next magnet for illegal immigrants wanting to get to the UK and blag everything as new routes will be opened up from France to Ireland for all sorts of things. Hope the Irish are ready for it.

So what you are saying is the tech solution will not work, which is exactly what the EU is saying.

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[Sir Dude]

2 minutes ago, brucec64 said:

So what you are saying is the tech solution will not work, which is exactly what the EU is saying. 
 

Lol....nice wise guy troll attempt, give you that.

[brucec64]

They can solve it with tech that is successfully used elsewhere if they really want to but this Ireland issue is being used as a weapon against the UK government as they (EU) don't want to discuss these solutions. However, if they do this then Ireland, especially the southern shores, will become the next magnet for illegal immigrants wanting to get to the UK and blag everything as new routes will be opened up from France to Ireland for all sorts of things. Hope the Irish are ready for it.

Where is this used? I would be curious as to how you would manage passport controls with no border checkpoints.

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[OneMoreFarang]

44 minutes ago, David in the north said:

59 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

It's amazing that some people still pretend this can end somehow positive for the UK.

The EU is not perfect, but staying in the EU is still by far the best deal they will ever get. It's obvious for anybody who pays attention and uses a brain.

Complete nonsense.

Please explain why this is nonsense and what you think is a realistic Brexit scenario which is good for most of the people in the UK.

It seems lots of Brexiters know what they don't want. And some have fantasies i.e. about all those wonderful trade deals which don't exist.

Until now not one of those Brexiters could produce a realistic plan without lot of lies.

If you have one, please present that plan. We are all waiting since about 2 years for that plan.

[CG1 Blue]

9 minutes ago, brucec64 said:

Where is this used? I would be curious as to how you would manage passport controls with no border checkpoints.

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As I understand it, Norway / Sweden rely on technology for customs checks. I'd say the UK could come up with something very robust, given our excellent tech track record. But, this is not being given the light of day.

 

I suspect (as many others do) that the EU and the Remain establishment don't want the border issue to be resolved this easily.

 

[OneMoreFarang]

18 minutes ago, Sir Dude said:

They can solve it with tech that is successfully used elsewhere

That is a lie!

If the technic would exist and if it would be already in use somewhere then I am sure the Brexiters would tell us about the details of that technology and where exactly it is already implemented.

Why is nobody coming forward with this information? Because it is a secret? Or because it is a lie?

[CG1 Blue]

4 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Please explain why this is nonsense and what you think is a realistic Brexit scenario which is good for most of the people in the UK.

It seems lots of Brexiters know what they don't want. And some have fantasies i.e. about all those wonderful trade deals which don't exist.

Until now not one of those Brexiters could produce a realistic plan without lot of lies.

If you have one, please present that plan. We are all waiting since about 2 years for that plan.

What you need to understand is that we just want out. This is our one and only opportunity to escape the EU.  The priority is to get out. 

 

It would be nice to have a plan in place, but with so many unknowns, and so much resistance form the EU / Remainers, that might not be possible at this stage.

[OneMoreFarang]

2 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

I'd say the UK could come up with something very robust, given our excellent tech track record. But, this is not being given the light of day.

Lots of right wing Brexiters are not to shy to open their mouth wide all the time - especially with criticizing other people.

Maybe someone would take these Brexiters serious if they would present this wonderful technology.

Where are they hiding it? Who is holding them back that they can't present it?

[CG1 Blue]

1 minute ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Lots of right wing Brexiters are not to shy to open their mouth wide all the time - especially with criticizing other people.

Maybe someone would take these Brexiters serious if they would present this wonderful technology.

Where are they hiding it? Who is holding them back that they can't present it?

Take what Sweden & Norway are using, then appoint one of our incredible tech companies to develop it further.  But this can't be done while the Remain establishment / the EU refuse to discuss it.

If they had done this much earlier we would be ready by now.

[OneMoreFarang]

1 minute ago, CG1 Blue said:

What you need to understand is that we just want out. This is our one and only opportunity to escape the EU.  The priority is to get out. 

 

It would be nice to have a plan in place, but with so many unknowns, and so much resistance form the EU / Remainers, that might not be possible at this stage.

If "you" just want to get out then go out. And then the UK will be treated according to WTO rules - just like some banana republic from nowhere.

If you follow the news you must have by now an idea about the consequences. If this is what you want go ahead and enjoy your freedom.

[CG1 Blue]

1 minute ago, OneMoreFarang said:

If "you" just want to get out then go out. And then the UK will be treated according to WTO rules - just like some banana republic from nowhere.

If you follow the news you must have by now an idea about the consequences. If this is what you want go ahead and enjoy your freedom.

Ok

Edited September 21, 2018 by CG1 Blue

[OneMoreFarang]

Just now, CG1 Blue said:

Take what Sweden & Norway are using, then appoint one of our incredible tech companies to develop it further.  But this can't be done while the Remain establishment / the EU refuse to discuss it.

If they had done this much earlier we would be ready by now.

"They" Who? The people who triggered article 50? Or do you thin the EU should do that work for you? It seems you are one of those Brexit supporters so maybe you can tell us why nobody developed a solution. Vote Leave spend all that money to tell people lies. Why don't the same people spend some money for your bright future?

[brucec64]

As I understand it, Norway / Sweden rely on technology for customs checks. I'd say the UK could come up with something very robust, given our excellent tech track record. But, this is not being given the light of day.
 
I suspect (as many others do) that the EU and the Remain establishment don't want the border issue to be resolved this easily.
 

If you read in detail, you will see that there are checks close to the border that still take many hours. Also, Sweden and Norway have a large smuggling problem, and this would most likely become the main smuggling route into the UK.

https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-ireland-border-customs-norway-sweden/


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