Iran will defeat Trump just like it did Saddam, won't abandon missiles -Rouhani

[Morch]

11 hours ago, SuperTed said:

EU and China have already rushed into Iran under Obama; it will be interesting to see if Trump can pull them back out.

 

China is wetting the bed over Trump’s imposition of sanctions for buying Russian missles. I don’t know how they will react to sanctions for buying Iranian oil.

 

China does as China will, and it can (to an extent) ignore some of the US economic pressures involved. The EU? Not so much. Volvo is the latest firm to announce shutting down/minimizing business in/with Iran (citing worries about payment transfers, I think), and France seems to have paused the bailout/insurance plan intended to protect French firms defying Trump's sanctions.

 

I doubt that China's stance regarding the US Iran sanctions is independent of the ongoing US-China trade war. Whether the Chinese leadership will consider defying Trump's sanctions an apt response or a step too far, remains to be seen.

[Morch]

10 hours ago, SuperTed said:

The US ousted the democratically elected President of Iran, and replaced him with the Shah of Iran (their King), with the express purpose of moving all power over oil to the Shah, so the US could control Iran’s oil supply.

 

Once Iranians figured out what had happened, they were very unhappy with the U,S. Cue radical Islam and the revolution.

 

That's a very simplistic and one-sided "take" on things. The Iranian revolution wasn't fueled by the "Iranian figuring out what happened", though. The Shah's rule had other aspects (for good and bad) other than control of oil production.

 

Considering the revolution came decades after the US intervention, drawing a direct line of causality and insisting it's the only factor is a rather dubious position.

[Morch]

11 hours ago, SuperTed said:

Ideally yes, but in practicality, no. American sanctions hurt both us and our trading partners, and can’t be ignored by any of us.

 

Also if Trump wants to go full tilt, he can down ships carrying Iranian oil.

 

The US sanctions on Iran do not hurt the US all that much. Even without the new set of sanctions, previous ones already in place (and not lifted by the previous administration as well) made dealing with Iran a complex issues as far as US firms go.

 

As for trade "partners", I think it is ought to be obvious by now that Trump doesn't think along such lines. In the context of his international actions and policies, the magnitude of the Iran sanctions isn't that high, really.

 

As for the "full tilt" bit - scaremongering hyperbole.

[Morch]

3 hours ago, Kiwiken said:

And if he decided to go full tilt you think the action would be limited to the Gulf. Given the US disdain for the UN where will you negotiate the ceasefire? In the ashes of Geneva.

 

More hyperbole.

[geriatrickid]

On 9/22/2018 at 6:34 AM, puipuitom said:

That's why the western World should switch as soon and as much as possible to alternatives of fossil oil and gas. A LOT cheaper, and less own damage when oil revenu bring the Ayatollays, Maduro, Putin and the Sheiks on their knees ( = regime change) 

The western world is not the important market for  Iran. It's China, India and South Korea.  China and India like their Iranian oil. A loss of Iranian oil would hurt the Chinese economy. Does anyone believe  that China, which imports about 8% of its oil from Iran would sit by quietly as its economy was disrupted?

 

A disruption in the oil sector would be especially welcome by Canada and Russia as they would be the chief beneficiaries of an increase in oil prices. The Russian economy would be revived and Canada could stop selling its oil assets to the Chinese at  bargain basement prices. The Gulf states would like to see an  increase in the  price of oil and the UAE and KSA wouldn't mind the loss of a few tankers if they could make a few billion USD out of it. The USA is oil self sufficient and would not suffer directly.

 

 

Edited September 25, 2018 by geriatrickid

[billd766]

13 hours ago, SuperTed said:

Ideally yes, but in practicality, no. American sanctions hurt both us and our trading partners, and can’t be ignored by any of us.

 

Also if Trump wants to go full tilt, he can down ships carrying Iranian oil.

 

Well in Theory he could down ships carrying Iranian oil but if he did then he and the USA would be accused or piracy at the very least and to sink them he will have to declare war. The USA has few allies or friends left since Trump became POTUS and by doing that he will bring an awful lot of hate to the USA.