Thailand - only ‘remote’ chance of a tsunami

[webfact]

Only ‘remote’ chance of a tsunami

By Pratch Rujivanarom 
The Nation 

 

File photo: Tsunami in Thailand.

 

THE CHANCE of an imminent repeat tsunami in the Andaman Sea is remote, while the tsunami risk in the Gulf of Thailand is even smaller to nearly impossible, say leading seismologists in the wake of public tsunami fears triggered by the recent devastation in Indonesia.
 

Nevertheless, say experts, the authorities, business sector and citizens in tsunami risk areas should swiftly and strictly follow disaster response and evacuation plans.

 

Even though a tidal wave is unlikely to hit Thailand’s coasts soon, Paiboon Nuannin, geophysics lecturer at Prince of Songkhla University’s Faculty of Science, notes that earthquake disasters remain beyond human prediction, and so public preparedness will save lives in an unforeseen emergency situation.

 

Concern over a tsunami re-emerged this week, especially on social media, after a deadly one-two punch of an earthquake and tsunami hit the Indonesian city of Palu last Friday. The two-part assault caused serious destruction to the city and killed more than 1,200 people and made global headline as well as sometimes fearful social media discussion.

 

Panic is unwarranted, say academics. But they also caution that Thailand’s two coastlines – the Andaman Sea and Gulf of Thailand – are not totally safe from a future tsunami disaster.

 

Paiboon pointed to the long subduction zone lying beneath the Andaman Sea from Sumatra Island all the way to India, which is large enough to have the capacity to generate a large earthquake that could trigger a tsunami and threaten the Andaman coast. However, he said, given the normal period between tsunamis in this region, there is a very low chance that the six Andaman provinces would be hit by another tsunami disaster in the near future.

 

“Interviews with older people in the Andaman provinces found that even the oldest among them could not remember a tsunami disaster ever hitting the Andaman coast in their lifetime before the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, so we can conclude that the return period for a tsunami in Andaman Sea is over 100 years,” he said.

 

The threat of a tsunami in the Gulf of Thailand was even less likely, perhaps to nearly zero, Paiboon said. There is a theoretical chance that Thailand’s Gulf of Thailand coastline will be affected by a tsunami in a scenario in which there is a very strong earthquake and tsunami in the South China Sea off the coast of Philippines, he noted. However, the return period for such an event is less than once in 400 years.

 

Even if such an unlikely event occurred in the Gulf of Thailand, the strength of the wave and impacts to the coast would be minimal, explained National Disaster Warning Centre’s senior expert Admiral Kohlak Charoenrook. After the wave entered the Gulf of Thailand, most of its power would be absorbed by the shallow water and gentle seafloor slope inside the gulf, he said.

 

People in the Andaman provinces also do not need to worry about a tsunami threat triggered by the ongoing eruption of a volcano at India’s Barren Island, Kohlak said. That volcano is too small to cause a powerful eruption capable of generating a tsunami.

 

Despite the lack of imminent risk, Paiboon said most important is that all stakeholders plan their disaster response. Hi-tech earthquake monitoring system and tsunami monitoring buoys in the oceans alert us to tsunamis almost instantly. But if authorities and the public do not know how to properly follow emergency procedures, the loss of life, injuries and damages from both the natural disaster and a poorly organised evacuation could be substantial.

 

“It is very important that the authorities have clear orders and procedures in an emergency response plan, that the warning system is widely accessible, and that people take the emergency response drill seriously and fully comply with official procedures,” he stressed.

 

“In the real situation of a tsunami disaster on the Andaman coast, the disaster warning and evacuation must be completed within 20 minutes after the tsunami is generated, as we have only 30 to 60 minutes before the wave hits the beaches.”

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/national/30355838

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2018-10-05

 

[inThailand]

Only ‘remote’ chance of a tsunami

 

I would bet on a tsunami before betting on the lottery. Better chance of winning and a better payout. 

 

An even better bet would be on the inoperative warning system when the tsunami occurs. 

[Enoon]

 

Head for the hills!

 

 

[Thailand]

A comment to bite yer bum!

[Thian]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

“Interviews with older people in the Andaman provinces found that even the oldest among them could not remember a tsunami disaster ever hitting the Andaman coast in their lifetime before the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, so we can conclude that the return period for a tsunami in Andaman Sea is over 100 years,” he said.

 

 

Yes it's not possible that tsunami's are something of the last decades only...If the old people had never heard of them before we must be safe...

 

But also those farang come since some decades, maybe tsunami has to do with them being here? All those booming big bellies in Pattaya can't cause an earthquake, right?

[Chang_paarp]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

 

“Interviews with older people in the Andaman provinces found that even the oldest among them could not remember a tsunami disaster ever hitting the Andaman coast in their lifetime before the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, so we can conclude that the return period for a tsunami in Andaman Sea is over 100 years,” he said.

 

The threat of a tsunami in the Gulf of Thailand was even less likely, perhaps to nearly zero, Paiboon said. There is a theoretical chance that Thailand’s Gulf of Thailand coastline will be affected by a tsunami in a scenario in which there is a very strong earthquake and tsunami in the South China Sea off the coast of Philippines, he noted. However, the return period for such an event is less than once in 400 years.

Well that is an interesting way to collect scientific data. Have they looked at the soil profiles? The surrounding geography? The Andaman coast by its nature is prone to tsunamis in the event of a seismic event close by which is not unknown. 

 

Pontificating to calm government nerves is fine but the reality is if there is seismic event in the right place there is going to be a lot of water in places it is not usually found.

[pattayadgw]

What sort of irresponsible comment is this?  "Remote chance of Tsunami" 

[Lupatria]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

Only ‘remote’ chance of a tsunami

555 like the famous 'remote' chance of flooding? Then we are safe...

Edited October 4, 2018 by Lupatria

[inThailand]

A new hub?

The Remote Chance hub. 

 

There is a remote chance... 

 

You will live driving on the roads or walking

 

You won't be scammed

 

You won't meet a hawker or hooker today

 

You won't experience dual pricing 

 

You won't be fooled or robbed by a katoy

 

The tsunami warning systems work

 

Your bar tab is correct 

 

I sure others can add to the list. 

 

 

[sweatalot]

Well, they have to say that. But is there another reason for it than tranquilizing people?

[quadperfect]

Well lets not forget the devistating earthquake in sumatra the 9.0 that sent the big wave to phuket ,had another quake in 2013 .in same exact location of 8.9. But this second quake was the most unusual rare side to side motion and not up and down. Its the side to side that was biggest ever recorded of this type. And it did not send a big wave..  i would say we are about due again for this active fault line to send another wave.

I am no panic button type but i spend 6 to 12 months a year on that sumatra west coast and i do take it very seriously. I am in the water all day every day. I am vigilant as you all should be here in phuket too.

[Oziex1]

I believe the correct statement would be, our warning systems are in place, tested and functioning. Our emergency crews are trained and ready as well as multi lingual signage to direct people to safety. 

[inThailand]

3 minutes ago, Oziex1 said:

I believe the correct statement would be, our warning systems are in place, tested and functioning. Our emergency crews are trained and ready as well as multi lingual signage to direct people to safety. 

Wouldn't that be called lying thru your teeth? 

[mfd101]

Why worry? We're as ready as we are every year for the monsoon.

[Oziex1]

8 minutes ago, inThailand said:

Wouldn't that be called lying thru your teeth? 

We know how prepared they really are,  just suggesting where they should be. 

[Borzandy]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

THE CHANCE of an imminent repeat tsunami in the Andaman Sea is remote

The Thai experts said....

[Wallander4]

Seems like they are almost asking for a tsunami

[stanleycoin]

3 hours ago, pattayadgw said:

What sort of irresponsible comment is this?  "Remote chance of Tsunami" 

It's the normal type of comment you would expect to hear from

Thailand's highly educated experts. 

 

But they are very good at pantomime, Its' behind you, oh no it's not,  and so on.  

 

Edited October 5, 2018 by stanleycoin

[saminoz]

These "so-called" Thai experts are a complete joke!

The 2004 tsunami was an indirect result of the earthquake due to the shifting of the tectonic plates.

They aren't going anywhere (or rather they are, and are unstoppable!) and the pressure as one plates climbs atop the other is certainly building right now, as I type.

It's when the pressure becomes too much and the plate shifts or buckles, that the large earthquakes are caused and the resulting large tsunamis are formed.

I would say that it is only a matter of time until it occurs again in the same place, affecting the same areas.

Simply look at how many times the same spots (San Francisco, Japan etc) suffer frequent tremors and quakes.

This is a highly irrespnsible statement from another dumb government mouthpiece just itching for his 15 minutes of fame.

[PatOngo]

A tsunami is like the truth, hard to know when you'll get it! "Remote" chance!

[HHTel]

Quote

based on the earthquake record in the Andaman Sea between 2007 to this year, there were 10 earthquakes big enough to create a tsunami. He said a tsunami could only be triggered by a specific type of tectonic plate movement and not all big earthquakes can generate a seismic sea wave. “A big tsunami can only be generated by an earthquake larger than eight magnitude, and in the Andaman Sea, the recurrence interval for such a gigantic earthquake was once every 15 years. And the most recent earthquake on this scale already happened in 2012, so it will take around 10 years to gather the energy for the next big earthquake”

 

All geological reports agree that a tsunami in the gulf is virtually non-existant and even if affected, the tsunami would be well under a metre and go unnoticed.

[petedk]

1 hour ago, saminoz said:

These "so-called" Thai experts are a complete joke!

The 2004 tsunami was an indirect result of the earthquake due to the shifting of the tectonic plates.

They aren't going anywhere (or rather they are, and are unstoppable!) and the pressure as one plates climbs atop the other is certainly building right now, as I type.

It's when the pressure becomes too much and the plate shifts or buckles, that the large earthquakes are caused and the resulting large tsunamis are formed.

I would say that it is only a matter of time until it occurs again in the same place, affecting the same areas.

Simply look at how many times the same spots (San Francisco, Japan etc) suffer frequent tremors and quakes.

This is a highly irrespnsible statement from another dumb government mouthpiece just itching for his 15 minutes of fame.

I remember seeing a TV program where some scientists predicted that a similar, or even larger quake and following tsunami were expected within the next 30 years. 

Has that all been forgotten?

[DM07]

So...even older people don't recall any Tsunami, apart from the Boxing Day Tsunami in 2004...

And that proves...$#%@ all!

Just in case, somebody might have missed it: a Tsunami is not only, exclusively and always identified by a giant wave, that washes away thousands of lives!

It is kind of likely, that there have been many Tsunamis, they just weren't as ginormous as the famous one or the one that hit Fukujima.

 

[CLW]

Such a pile of BS.
How can any expert say that there is no chance of a tsunami in Thailand?

Did he buy his degree at Khao San Road or order from some "prestigious" fake university abroad?

[marko kok prong]

Of course it won't happen,until it does,a sort of known unknown.

[mfd101]

If you think of it in terms of likelihood + time (ie a partial concept of 'risk' - a concept unknown in Thailand as far as I can tell), then - given what the real experts tell us about tectonic plates etc, and noting that Indonesia is a good place to visit for demonstrations of nature's devastating power [earthquakes, volcanoes & tsunamis], I should think the NEXT tsunami is more likely over, say, the next 10 years (which includes tomorrow) than it is, say, 40-60 years out.

 

In other words, the popular belief that the likelihood is probably increasing over time so we don't need to worry today, is just the usual wishful thinking. The highest likelihood is within a shortish timeframe, with never-ceasing repeats over the same timeframes thereafter ...

[trainman34014]

This is what they said before the last one the dumb jerks !!