Australia government stripped of majority after by-election rout

[rooster59]

Australia government stripped of majority after by-election rout

By Colin Packham and Jonathan Barrett

 

 

SYDNEY (Reuters) - The Australian government will lose its one-seat majority in parliament with more than half the votes counted in a by-election late on Saturday, creating a potential political crisis for Prime Minister Scott Morrison.

 

The by-election for the wealthy seaside constituency of Wentworth, in Sydney's east, followed the resignation of former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull who was ousted in August by his own party.

 

With just over 60 percent of votes counted late on Saturday, locals registered a near 23 percent swing against the government's candidate Dave Sharma, according to official electoral results, propelling Kerryn Phelps, an independent, to victory.

 

"This win tonight should signal a return of decency, integrity and humanity to the Australian government," Phelps told her supporters in Sydney.

 

During the campaign, Phelps, a doctor, tapped into growing disdain by voters for Australia’s rough-and-ready political system, highlighted by the Liberals' ousting of their own leader in August - the fourth prime minister to be removed from office by their own party since 2010.

 

As vote counting continued, Prime Minister Morrison acknowledged the impending defeat on Saturday, while pledging to fight all the way until the next election.

 

"We will stand up for what we believe until the bell rings, and the bell hasn't rung, Liberals, the bell hasn't rung," Morrison told supporters.

 

MINORITY RULE

 

Morrison, more conservative than his predecessor, will now have to rely on the support of independent lawmakers to continue to govern.

 

The next national election is not due until May 2019, although it could happen earlier if the Liberal-led coalition fails to win the support of at least one independent MP and continue to govern.

 

Haydon Manning, a political science professor at Flinders University in South Australia, told Reuters it was unlikely the government could continue until May.

 

"Tonight's result shows they face a challenge to avoid anything other than a disastrous defeat at the next federal election."

 

Even if Morrison can hold a minority government together, his entire legislative agenda will be driven by five independents.

 

Two independents have already ruled out supporting the government, and others have warned Morrison that he will have to pay a hefty price for their backing.

 

Bob Katter a former member of the ruling coalition before resigning to sit as an independent, issued a statement immediately after the result became clear outlining his demands, largely around agriculture.

 

To gain his support, Katter said Morrison would have to: offer government-backed loans to drought affected farmers; clamp-down on foreign purchases of agricultural land; and build various infrastructure including a dam and a railway line.

 

"If they don’t deliver these things, then they don’t deserve to survive," Katter said.

 

FALLOUT

 

Morrison is also dealing with the fallout of a pledge to consider following U.S. President Donald Trump's controversial decision to recognise Jerusalem as Israel's capital and move its embassy there.

 

The potential policy unveiled during the by-election campaign was designed to appeal to the large Jewish community in Wentworth, but has been widely criticised.

 

Arab diplomats expressed their worries to Canberra this week, and neighbouring Indonesia warned that Australia was risking its trade and business relationship with the entire Islamic world.

 

Sharma, the Liberal candidate in Wentworth, is a former Australian ambassador to Israel who is credited with first making the proposal to relocate the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

 

The status of Jerusalem is one of the obstacles to a peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians. Israel regards all of the city, including the eastern sector that it annexed after the 1967 Middle East war, as its capital.

 

The Jerusalem proposal was the most controversial element of an already heated campaign. Turnbull's own son called on voters to shun the Liberal Party over its energy and climate change policies that have divided the party.

 

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2018-10-21

[PatOngo]

Maybe time for the army to stage a coup....oh wait, that doesn't/could'nt  happen in Australia!

[keith101]

Me thinks the election will be well before May if not by December .

[lanista]

Ive never heard of a swing of that magnitued even in a by-election where emotions run high.

We live in very unpredictable times.

The Libs could still win the Federal election if Labor screws up their campaign with trade union thugs and the transgender/gay mafia  lobby milling around.

Very hard for independents to actually win government although i wish them all the best.

 

Corbett in the UK will already be on the phone to Bill Shorten offering congratulations and support.

Israel is also watching  Shorten with interest.

[ballpoint]

All that's needed is to replace the Queen with a president as head of state and Australia can finally take its rightful place as the largest banana republic in the world.

[car720]

This is not over yet.

There is a major scandal in the wings of this one.

Sunday lunchtime in Australia and now they are saying that with magical postal votes just arriving that they have brought the difference down to just 900 votes with more to come.

I can smell the cheese from here.

[MikeN]

It is not exactly a rout on the latest figures, with it going 51%/49% to the independent after preferences, but on the primary vote it is Libs a mile in front on 43%, the leading Independent on 29% and Labour on 11%, with a multitude of independents like the voluntary euthanasia party, the arts party, animal justice party and more bringing up the rear but directing their preferences to Phelps to put her in the lead at the moment.

Labour and Greens both had a swing of 6% against them so they should not be feeling too comfortable.

[rosst]

10 hours ago, keith101 said:

Me thinks the election will be well before May if not by December .

That would be handy, I am home every year for Christmas 

[Lacessit]

A fully deserved hiding at the hands of the electorate. After years of lambasting Labor for leadership instability, the Liberals did it themselves - twice.

[Lacessit]

3 hours ago, MikeN said:

It is not exactly a rout on the latest figures, with it going 51%/49% to the independent after preferences, but on the primary vote it is Libs a mile in front on 43%, the leading Independent on 29% and Labour on 11%, with a multitude of independents like the voluntary euthanasia party, the arts party, animal justice party and more bringing up the rear but directing their preferences to Phelps to put her in the lead at the moment.

Labour and Greens both had a swing of 6% against them so they should not be feeling too comfortable.

You are joking, surely? In the bluest of blue ribbon seats, always Liberal since Federation, the Liberal vote dropped from 76% to 43% - a 33% plunge in the primary vote. If that's a mile in front, Shorten must be praying for more of the same next year.

[MikeN]

3 hours ago, Lacessit said:

You are joking, surely? In the bluest of blue ribbon seats, always Liberal since Federation, the Liberal vote dropped from 76% to 43% - a 33% plunge in the primary vote. If that's a mile in front, Shorten must be praying for more of the same next year.

It is a byelection, the result will not be repeated in a general election, certainly not nation wide. A 51/49 result is not a rout, that’s about average for elections. And I doubt Shorten will be praying for more of the same when Labour can only muster 11%, down 6% !

 Phelps has said she would not support any Labour calls for an early election, perhaps because she knows by election voting often goes against the incumbent party and that she probably will not hold the seat in a general election.

[Lacessit]

8 hours ago, MikeN said:

It is a byelection, the result will not be repeated in a general election, certainly not nation wide. A 51/49 result is not a rout, that’s about average for elections. And I doubt Shorten will be praying for more of the same when Labour can only muster 11%, down 6% !

 Phelps has said she would not support any Labour calls for an early election, perhaps because she knows by election voting often goes against the incumbent party and that she probably will not hold the seat in a general election.

Believe that if you want to. IMHO the Libs are in for a well-deserved electoral rout, voters aren't listening any more. I've been around long enough to witness that phenomenon on both sides of the political fence.

As Graham Richardson put it succinctly, if the Libs can't hold their bluest of blue ribbon seat, what hope have they got in the marginals?

Phelps is a very high quality candidate, both Labor and the Liberals have been courting her for some time. It would not surprise me if she continues to hold the seat after the next election.

Now here's a thought - Turnbull is not noted for taking things lying down. How much chaos do you think he could cause if he stood as an independent in Warringah against Abbott in the next election? He's certainly got the money for it. Would be very ironic if Dr. No got tossed out by a negative campaign in his own electorate. That would be fun to watch, the perfect definition of schadenfreude. Or som nom na.

[KiChakayan]

1 hour ago, Lacessit said:

voters aren't listening any more.

And this is how the French ended up with Hobson's choice: Le Pen vs Macron. 

Edited October 22, 2018 by KiChakayan

[car720]

I can see all the partisan voters here.

How can any man who calls himself honest be forced to choose between two proven liars.  And if he votes independent he still has no say to where his vote ends up in the end.