Extreme Brexit could be worse than financial crisis for UK: BoE

[billd766]

8 minutes ago, samran said:

Don’t forget you’ll also get your bendy bananas back. No more EU bureaucrats telling you how bendy they need be.

I eat bendy bananas every day, either from my garden, my neighbours garden, from the local market or form the Thai family depending on what they have.

 

That is why a bunch of bananas are called a hand, simply because in their natural state they follow the shape of the human hand.

[samran]

12 minutes ago, billd766 said:

But the EU/Canada deal had to be approved by all 28 nations for it to pass. When there are only 2 nations involved surely it will be a lot easier and many years quicker.

No.

 

Thailand and Malaysia can’t even agree to let each other’s tour busses and lorries enter each other territory beyond certain limits.

 

Thai cars aren’t even allowed onto Vietnamese roads. 

 

Australia cant negotiate to get a higher quota of beef into thailand tariff free. Under current rules the tariff free quota is snapped up by the 10th of January each year.

 

That FTA was scheduled - as per the actual FTA text - to be reviewed 4 years ago. Do you think they’ve even had a meeting?

 

Silly examples such as this are much more the norm of the brave new world you are entering. 

 

 

 

 

[evadgib]

[damascase]

1 hour ago, billd766 said:

But the EU/Canada deal had to be approved by all 28 nations for it to pass. When there are only 2 nations involved surely it will be a lot easier and many years quicker.

That’s not the way these things work in the EU. When the actual negotiations start, the - still - 28 Member States have already reached agreement on the framework and the desired content/scope/limits of the FTA. On that basis, the Commission gets a mandate to negotiate. Member States are permanently informed about the ongoing negotiations and have the power to change the approach, if and when deemed necessary. So they won’t be confronted with nasty surprises after these negotiations. Ratification can indeed be time-consuming, especially so when a government has failed to properly inform parliament about what was ongoing.

Edited February 20, 2019 by damascase
Typo

[welovesundaysatspace]

1 hour ago, billd766 said:

But the EU/Canada deal had to be approved by all 28 nations for it to pass. When there are only 2 nations involved surely it will be a lot easier and many years quicker.

As we can see in the current negotiations between the 27 EU and 1-4 UK countries.

 

 

 

 

Edited February 20, 2019 by welovesundaysatspace

[nauseus]

2 hours ago, billd766 said:

I eat bendy bananas every day, either from my garden, my neighbours garden, from the local market or form the Thai family depending on what they have.

 

That is why a bunch of bananas are called a hand, simply because in their natural state they follow the shape of the human hand.

I have to hand it to you there, Bill. ????

[Scott]

Posts violating Fair Use Policy and replies removed.  

 

[talahtnut]

12 hours ago, SheungWan said:

They didn't vote to crash the car though.

The misdirected English car crashed in '73.

And the English car industry collapsed when you sold

your Allegro.

 

[Purdey]

On ‎11‎/‎29‎/‎2018 at 2:25 PM, simoh1490 said:

We, as a country, pay 1 Billion Pounds a week in interest because we were forced to borrow money to cover the deficit left to the country at the time the last Labour governement left office in 2010.....and you want to see Labour voted in again! Really!

 

Bureaucrats cannot be voted out of office in the UK too.

[Purdey]

On ‎2‎/‎19‎/‎2019 at 10:21 PM, aright said:

It's true the EU economy has grown in size but unfortunately not in proportion to the market size. Put bluntly they have lost market share. The world economy did not get significantly larger In 24 hours, there were long term signs,  and in business terms no CEO would excuse a Sales Director who lost 5% of market share in a growing market.

 

 

 

And the UK is expecting to take away EU market share by grabbing its business with Bangladesh!

[billd766]

15 hours ago, samran said:

No.

 

Thailand and Malaysia can’t even agree to let each other’s tour busses and lorries enter each other territory beyond certain limits.

 

Thai cars aren’t even allowed onto Vietnamese roads. 

 

Australia cant negotiate to get a higher quota of beef into thailand tariff free. Under current rules the tariff free quota is snapped up by the 10th of January each year.

 

That FTA was scheduled - as per the actual FTA text - to be reviewed 4 years ago. Do you think they’ve even had a meeting?

 

Silly examples such as this are much more the norm of the brave new world you are entering. 

 

 

 

 

Australia shipping beef to Thailand or Thailand and Malaysia can’t even agree to let each other’s tour busses and lorries enter each other territory beyond certain limits.

 

Thai cars aren’t even allowed onto Vietnamese roads. 

 

I have no idea what that has to do with Brexit at all but I am sure you can explain it somehow.

 

 

14 hours ago, damascase said:

wrong post. Sorry.

 

Edited February 21, 2019 by billd766
Edited for bad spelling after I had posted it

[billd766]

14 hours ago, damascase said:

That’s not the way these things work in the EU. When the actual negotiations start, the - still - 28 Member States have already reached agreement on the framework and the desired content/scope/limits of the FTA. On that basis, the Commission gets a mandate to negotiate. Member States are permanently informed about the ongoing negotiations and have the power to change the approach, if and when deemed necessary. So they won’t be confronted with nasty surprises after these negotiations. Ratification can indeed be time-consuming, especially so when a government has failed to properly inform parliament about what was ongoing.

So how long DID it take for the EU to ratify the Canada treaty?

 

When the UK goes for a treaty with Canada, Australia, NZ etc there will only be 2 parties involved and NOT 28 or 27 so the time frame will be far less.

 

Unless you know something different.

[samran]

22 minutes ago, billd766 said:

Australia shipping beef to Thailand or Thailand and Malaysia can’t even agree to let each other’s tour busses and lorries enter each other territory beyond certain limits.

 

Thai cars aren’t even allowed onto Vietnamese roads. 

 

I have no idea what that has to do with Brexit at all but I am sure you can explain it somehow.

 

 

 

It isn’t rocket science to understand.

 

Other readers managed to figure out what I was saying...

 

All these things are fundamental elements of international trade. Transport, logistics, product quotas, quarantine rules and non-tariff barriers. 

 

Brexit you are out on your own in terms of making trade deals. No heft of the EU to make the deals as comprehensive as they can be. 

 

What you are left with, as a single country, is trying via ‘negotiations’ to get single issues through. 

 

You said that going that way would be faster than trying to negotiate with 20 something other EU members. 

 

I simply gave you some examples - practical real world examples - of what awaits UK trade negotiatiors in their brave post brexit world. You don’t get much in reality. 

Edited February 21, 2019 by samran

[aright]

1 hour ago, Purdey said:

And the UK is expecting to take away EU market share by grabbing its business with Bangladesh!

We won't if we have leaders and negotiators with your doom and gloom outlook and level of ambition. 

If there was an Olympics for pessimism I would fancy your chances.

[tebee]

1 hour ago, samran said:

It isn’t rocket science to understand.

 

Other readers managed to figure out what I was saying...

 

All these things are fundamental elements of international trade. Transport, logistics, product quotas, quarantine rules and non-tariff barriers. 

 

Brexit you are out on your own in terms of making trade deals. No heft of the EU to make the deals as comprehensive as they can be. 

 

What you are left with, as a single country, is trying via ‘negotiations’ to get single issues through. 

 

You said that going that way would be faster than trying to negotiate with 20 something other EU members. 

 

I simply gave you some examples - practical real world examples - of what awaits UK trade negotiatiors in their brave post brexit world. You don’t get much in reality. 

And like the rest of Brexit we are completely unprepared for trade - still have no idea what we want!

 

 

[samran]

1 hour ago, aright said:

We won't if we have leaders and negotiators with your doom and gloom outlook and level of ambition. 

If there was an Olympics for pessimism I would fancy your chances.

All the bullishness in the world does you no good when the other side simply won’t open proceedings.

 

And you don’t have your gun boats to intimidate them any more (though based on reading threads like this, plenty of people still think Empire 2.0 starts on the 30th of March). 

Edited February 21, 2019 by samran

[Grouse]

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/meaning-of-brexit-by-jeffrey-d-sachs-2016-06

 

Jeff Sachs is TOP economist

 

The article is nearly 3 years old but wise words for Brexiters and Remainers

[Grouse]

4 hours ago, Purdey said:

Bureaucrats cannot be voted out of office in the UK too.

I can see quite clearly that the CONs cut the deficit immediately they cam in to office ????

[aright]

13 minutes ago, samran said:

All the bullishness in the world does you no good when the other side simply won’t open proceedings.

 

And you don’t have your gun boats to intimidate them any more (though based on reading threads like this, plenty of people still think Empire 2.0 starts on the 30th of March). 

I agree the impasse is caused by the EU's intransigence. Good intentions aren't always enough are they?

Where is your evidence/link that plenty of people think empire starts on 30th March? It's at odds with what I hear in the Pub and read in the Press.

It has just been announced that UK Public Finance showed a record surplus of £14.9 billion last month which was £3 billion more than forecast...…. a disappointment and too pessimistic for you probably.

[billd766]

3 hours ago, samran said:

It isn’t rocket science to understand.

 

Other readers managed to figure out what I was saying...

 

All these things are fundamental elements of international trade. Transport, logistics, product quotas, quarantine rules and non-tariff barriers. 

 

Brexit you are out on your own in terms of making trade deals. No heft of the EU to make the deals as comprehensive as they can be. 

 

What you are left with, as a single country, is trying via ‘negotiations’ to get single issues through. 

 

You said that going that way would be faster than trying to negotiate with 20 something other EU members. 

 

I simply gave you some examples - practical real world examples - of what awaits UK trade negotiatiors in their brave post brexit world. You don’t get much in reality. 

quote "I simply gave you some examples - practical real world examples - of what awaits UK trade negotiatiors in their brave post brexit world. You don’t get much in reality."

 

You gave me some examples completely unrelated to Brexit which in the real world affect those countries involved.

 

Please tell me slowly and in simple terms what these have to do with Brexit and or the EU.

 

"Thailand and Malaysia can’t even agree to let each other’s tour busses and lorries enter each other territory beyond certain limits.

Thai cars aren’t even allowed onto Vietnamese roads."

 

AFAIR neither Thailand, Malaysia or Vietnam are in the EU so that is nothing to do with real world values and Brexit.

 

Australia exporting beef to the EU has a real world value because all 28 or 27 countries have a say in that deal.

 

But when the UK leaves the EU and wants to strike a deal with Australia there are only 2 countries involved in that deal, so there can be no way that a deal will take 5 or 10 years.

 

 

 

[billd766]

27 minutes ago, samran said:

All the bullishness in the world does you no good when the other side simply won’t open proceedings.

 

And you don’t have your gun boats to intimidate them any more (though based on reading threads like this, plenty of people still think Empire 2.0 starts on the 30th of March). 

More real world values?

[talahtnut]

11 minutes ago, Grouse said:

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/meaning-of-brexit-by-jeffrey-d-sachs-2016-06

 

Jeff Sachs is TOP economist

 

The article is nearly 3 years old but wise words for Brexiters and Remainers

Thats a good read Grouse, I don't expect the EU could be

reformed with any speed, its too big and awkward, and

its Euro is already circling round the plug hole.

[samran]

46 minutes ago, aright said:

I agree the impasse is caused by the EU's intransigence. Good intentions aren't always enough are they?

Where is your evidence/link that plenty of people think empire starts on 30th March? It's at odds with what I hear in the Pub and read in the Press.

It has just been announced that UK Public Finance showed a record surplus of £14.9 billion last month which was £3 billion more than forecast...…. a disappointment and too pessimistic for you probably.

Go read the ‘leave’ manifesto. There was an assumption that world would rush to make trade deals with the UK. They won’t. You aren’t a super power any more. 

 

In terms of my quote. That lack of urgency from your trading ‘partners’ is what I was referring to. Your new trade reality. 

Edited February 21, 2019 by samran

[samran]

45 minutes ago, billd766 said:

quote "I simply gave you some examples - practical real world examples - of what awaits UK trade negotiatiors in their brave post brexit world. You don’t get much in reality."

 

You gave me some examples completely unrelated to Brexit which in the real world affect those countries involved.

 

Please tell me slowly and in simple terms what these have to do with Brexit and or the EU.

 

"Thailand and Malaysia can’t even agree to let each other’s tour busses and lorries enter each other territory beyond certain limits.

Thai cars aren’t even allowed onto Vietnamese roads."

 

AFAIR neither Thailand, Malaysia or Vietnam are in the EU so that is nothing to do with real world values and Brexit.

 

Australia exporting beef to the EU has a real world value because all 28 or 27 countries have a say in that deal.

 

But when the UK leaves the EU and wants to strike a deal with Australia there are only 2 countries involved in that deal, so there can be no way that a deal will take 5 or 10 years.

 

 

 

I’ll type this slowly so you can understand.

 

These examples will be the new british trade reality post brexit. That is how it relates. You’ll have your own versions of these soon enough. 

 

I typed that last bit really really slowly, just for you. 

 

The Australia US FTA became active in 2005. Formal talks started in 2001. The idea has been kicked about since the mid 1990s. So yes, they do take time. 

 

And the deal only came about in the end as Australia was part of the ‘coalition of the willing’ during the gulf war. And still, it is hardly ‘free’ in trade. Still lots of restrictions..

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australia–United_States_Free_Trade_Agreement

Edited February 21, 2019 by samran

[sanemax]

Just now, samran said:

Go read the ‘leave’ manifesto. There was an assumption that world would rush to make trade deals with the UK. They won’t. You aren’t a super power any more. 

 

In terms of my quote. That lack of urgency from your trading ‘partners’ is what I was referring to. Your new trade reality. 

The U.K has the Worlds 5 th largest economy .

The U.K cannot sign any trade deals until it has left the E.U.

Are you aware of any discussion between the UK and other Countries about future trade deals or are you just assuming that theres no deals in the pipeline ?

[dunroaming]

Due to the nature of my business I do a lot of import/exporting on a small scale, often not more than a couple of packing cases at a time.  To make things easier I belong to a group of other small scale import/exporters operating in the same areas. By being a group we get preferential rates and some influence when getting onboard faster routes.  We also get discounts from shipping agents.  Personally I find most of the members of the group obnoxious jerks and they probably feel the same way about me.  But as a unit we are strong and get deals that none of us could get individually.

 

In other words it benefits us all to be part of that group and just makes sound business sense.  My point?  Pretty obvious I would have thought. 

[samran]

21 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

Due to the nature of my business I do a lot of import/exporting on a small scale, often not more than a couple of packing cases at a time.  To make things easier I belong to a group of other small scale import/exporters operating in the same areas. By being a group we get preferential rates and some influence when getting onboard faster routes.  We also get discounts from shipping agents.  Personally I find most of the members of the group obnoxious jerks and they probably feel the same way about me.  But as a unit we are strong and get deals that none of us could get individually.

 

In other words it benefits us all to be part of that group and just makes sound business sense.  My point?  Pretty obvious I would have thought. 

I’m pretty sure there will be a member or three who reads what you wrote and will not put 2 and 2 together. 

[samran]

46 minutes ago, sanemax said:

The U.K has the Worlds 5 th largest economy .

The U.K cannot sign any trade deals until it has left the E.U.

Are you aware of any discussion between the UK and other Countries about future trade deals or are you just assuming that theres no deals in the pipeline ?

Hmmm, let’s see.

 

Given you haven’t had any trade negotiators for a generation, and the fact that you are ‘borrowing’ some from NZ and Australia, on top of the fact that you can’t even negotiate a brexit framework (which is really a deal to talk about future deals), the my ‘guess’ is you have sweet FA in terms of solid talks in the pipeline. 

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/25/commonwealth-trade-negotiators-seconded-britain-help-train-civil/

 

Sure, you’ve had some pleasant diplomatic chit chats saying all the right things, but that means very little. 

 

Any poltential trade deal will require scoping studies, feedback from the public, industry and other interest groups, so if you haven’t had that then, you are no where near advanced. 

 

Plus, given the clown show going on, if you did have anything serious you’d sure as hell be trumpeting that well above your ‘deal’ with the Faroe Islands.

 

You may not believe me, but I seriously hope I’m wrong. I do believe you’ll get some fairly quick wins with some of the old commonwealth countries. But the rest gets harder. 

Edited February 21, 2019 by samran

[aright]

1 hour ago, samran said:

Go read the ‘leave’ manifesto. There was an assumption that world would rush to make trade deals with the UK. They won’t. You aren’t a super power any more. 

 

In terms of my quote. That lack of urgency from your trading ‘partners’ is what I was referring to. Your new trade reality. 

I don’t recall saying we were a super power and certainly your claim doesn’t match the feelings of the people in my pub, my business and my friends. What part of the UK do you live in that is so different from mine in E Yorks?  Why are you reluctant to back your claim with evidence that plenty of people think Empire starts at the end of March.

There was no ‘leave’ manifesto. A manifesto is a declaration of policy normally by a political party. There was however lots of conjecture and misinformation on both sides.

As I recall your side said after the referendum there would be an immediate and profound economic shock which would drive the UK into recession. Can you remind us who has gone into recession and who is a rizla paper away from going in? It was also said that house prices would fall by 10-18%. In my area they haven’t changed perhaps in your area it’s different. 500000 people would be unemployed. The unemployment rate is 4% its lowest level since the 1970’s. Brexit was going to harm national security and reduce foreign investment. Show me the evidence.

In the absence of a well done I have assumed you weren't happy with the latest public finance declaration.

 

[bomber]

1 hour ago, samran said:

Go read the ‘leave’ manifesto. There was an assumption that world would rush to make trade deals with the UK. They won’t. You aren’t a super power any more. 

 

In terms of my quote. That lack of urgency from your trading ‘partners’ is what I was referring to. Your new trade reality. 

6 deals done so far including one with the HHHHHHHHHUUUUUUUUGGGGGGGGEEEEEEE global market that is Japan  Palastine

Brexit_ What trade deals has the UK done so far_ - BBC News.html