Election uncertainty is damaging the economy

 

 

Junta’s delaying tactics now threaten to whip up financial turmoil and social unrest

 

There is no justification for the instability Thailand is suffering as we enter our fifth year under junta rule. 

 

The year of uncertainty began with no clear plan for the election, a task meant to be completed long ago but delayed until this year, when Thailand has several important events to handle.

 

The junta has had plenty of time to call a general election since taking power in May 2014, but has come up with a range of excuses for dragging its feet. In reality, an unelected elite have for the past half a decade  created confusion and instability in order to claim legitimacy for extending their rule.

 

Thailand has three major events to handle this year: an election whose date we still don’t know, the coronation, and the chairing of Asean. Each will require huge government resources, time, budget and, more importantly, a peaceful environment.

 

The junta has known for years that 2019 marks Thailand’s turn at the Asean helm. The chair rotates alphabetically between countries, though members have previously chosen to forego their turn amid domestic difficulties. Among them was Myanmar in 2006, and Indonesia in 2011, which was distracted by a general election and so handed the helm to Brunei.

 

Yet despite having no clear plan for the election, Thai officials have informed their Asean colleagues that the Kingdom is ready to steer the region this year. The blithe assurances amid uncertainty ignore the debacle that occurred a decade ago when protesters stormed an Asean summit venue in Pattaya.

 

Meanwhile the junta apparently sees no problem in airily declaring the election could be held in late February, meaning the year’s first Asean summit has been put back to June to allow a new Thai government to form. Meantime, Asean and its leaders will have wasted half a year before getting to work on their annual agenda.

 

With early May announced as the date of the coronation, the junta had a new excuse to create further confusion by proposing the election be delayed again to March. That, in turn, could mean the Asean summit is postponed to the second half of the year.

 

Nobody wants to see instability in the country. Pro-democracy advocates and politicians are right to pressure the junta for an election date and no further delays. 

 

Yet rather than responding responsibly to those calls, the junta-backed government has raised passed the buck to the Election Commission, with an ominous warning that the election must be completed within 150 days of the organic law on the MPs election coming into force. In the other words, the election could be nullified if it’s ruled to be unconstitutional. 

 

The ongoing uncertainty has consequences not only for the Asean meeting and Thailand’s reputation as chair, but also for the Kingdom’s economic prospects in the year ahead. The junta knows this well since its economic tsar Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak admits that instability is eroding the confidence of local and foreign investors who are a major growth engine for the Thai economy.

 

For the sake of their business plans, investors need to know when the incumbents will be replaced by a new government and what its economic policy will look like. 

 

The prevailing national uncertainty is especially ridiculous when you consider Thailand has been ruled by a dictatorship since 2014. This all-powerful regime is supposedly unable to set an election date. 

 

If the instability continues, economic opportunity will be lost. And if economic performance suffers a downturn, the junta should know that social unrest is right around the corner.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/opinion/30361889

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2019-01-09

6 minutes ago, webfact said:

And if economic performance suffers a downturn, the junta should know that social unrest is right around the corner.

assumes this government is competent, which it isn't

A look at history clearly shows the outcome demonstrated by dictators, with thier methods of controlling people and power.

 

"THE WORLD IS MINE!"

 

Humans plus nature are not important! Life is cheap?

 

Greed Power Weapons Money and so on, they are more important!

 

What a sad world humans have created, with hate, suspicion, greed and destruction, which no human can leave! One big open prison! Our home!

 

 

2 hours ago, webfact said:

In reality, an unelected elite have for the past half a decade  created confusion and instability

Correction:  half a century.      If people studied the generals performance in running an army they would see mistakes of the magnitude of buying fake golf ball detectors, aircraft carriers with no planes and unusable airships. Anyone that thinks leaving 'managers' like this to run a country is in cloud cuckoo land.

2 hours ago, webfact said:

Election uncertainty is damaging the economy

Not only is the election creating economic uncertainty but the junta rule itself with an absolute authoritarian at the helm has been creating this situation for many years. I read somewhere yesterday that foreign and domestic investors are taking their money to Malaysia and Vietnam and are not prepared to risk it in Thailand. China is moving manufacturing out of the country because of the US trade war and they are going to Vietnam where productivity is higher and wages are lower. Thailand misses out again.

There is also commentary about the HS trains for the PM's dream Eastern Economic Corridor. The Japanese have made a study and concluded the trains are great but there is no provision for infrastructure within the Corridor. Seems the junta experts have forgotten about the need for that.

Thailand is on an economic slippery slope but the fools running the show don't seem to realize.

 

As most people feel the economy has been in downturn for a couple years now, but this very paper was leading the cheers saying ..  nope everything is great and blowing sunshine. Why should we take you seriously now that you sobered up?

 

Anything else guys?   Ok Playoffs are up this weekend. I need to get ready

Couldn't run a booze-up in a brewery springs to mind.

What is really damaging the economy is the Army, and Prayuth. Very destructive forces. They do not hire real talent, and they are in way over their heads. The country needs to get rid of them, and do it quickly. Get out. Get out now. You are not wanted. You are not liked. You are despised by the majority of Thais, and nearly all ex-pats. You are way, way past you sell by date. Just get out, and let your people get on with their lives, and prosper. 

 

Most of us are hoping the Army is shown the door, in this next election. 

Hang on! How come the article published on Thaivisa above is allowed to mention the word 'dictatorship' - 'ruled by a dictatorship since 2014' - and we little children in our postings are NOT?!!!!

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

 

Most of us are hoping the Army is shown the door, in this next election. 

If the election was to be held today, the junta will be out in quick steps. If delay any longer, the military will still be out in double time. 

On a positive note this turmoil could bring more value back for the pound, which would be nice.....

Sent from my SM-N950F using Tapatalk

The 'Nation' have grown a set. Nothing is likely to happen until after the ASEAN Summit. Nothing says it more than shiney shirts.

Elections Its the generals 20 year roadmap plan just put back a bit pensions unexplained wealth and bling must be accrued it may take a lifetime who knows????  

6 hours ago, Lungstib said:

Correction:  half a century.      If people studied the generals performance in running an army they would see mistakes of the magnitude of buying fake golf ball detectors, aircraft carriers with no planes and unusable airships. Anyone that thinks leaving 'managers' like this to run a country is in cloud cuckoo land.

Much more than a half century even, since 1932 when LaLa land was set up for purely the benefit of the few.  As the few grew the trough had to substantially increase in volume to cater for this expansion. But their numbers became limiting factors so hence a rota had to be devised to ensure an equal spread. For Rota replace with "coup" and there you have the underlying principal that to this day have become embedded in Thai society.  Delaying the election will only go to annoy and irritate those that are patiently waiting their turn at the trough . As to whether it will be an orderly change over of feeding will IMHO be dependent solely on how long the current incumbents attempt, by hook or by crook, to delay or alter the feeding times, metaphorically speaking of course.

Edited January 9, 20197 yr by geoffbezoz

8 hours ago, webfact said:

Election uncertainty is damaging the economy

Oh. don't say that, that will just be another reason to delay it indefinitly !

3 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

What is really damaging the economy is the Army, and Prayuth. Very destructive forces. They do not hire real talent, and they are in way over their heads. The country needs to get rid of them, and do it quickly. Get out. Get out now. You are not wanted. You are not liked. You are despised by the majority of Thais, and nearly all ex-pats. You are way, way past you sell by date. Just get out, and let your people get on with their lives, and prosper. 

 

Most of us are hoping the Army is shown the door, in this next election. 

Please confirm if I am right or wrong but I thought that election will still leave the army with 51%  control of the running of the country .

So i suppose I haven't been paying attention (!) but I thought the election was going to be on February 24th. I thought I saw a TV article confirming this......

10 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

What is really damaging the economy is the Army, and Prayuth. Very destructive forces. They do not hire real talent, and they are in way over their heads. The country needs to get rid of them, and do it quickly. Get out. Get out now. You are not wanted. You are not liked. You are despised by the majority of Thais, and nearly all ex-pats. You are way, way past you sell by date. Just get out, and let your people get on with their lives, and prosper. 

 

Most of us are hoping the Army is shown the door, in this next election. 

What is truly damaging is the continuous traditional oligarchical systems, that don't seem to waiver regardless of standing government - for ages. 

 

...and the general naivete still stands.

Edited January 9, 20197 yr by zzaa09

3 minutes ago, zzaa09 said:

What is truly damaging is the continuous traditional oligarchical systems, that don't seem to waiver regardless of standing government - for ages.

Doesn't Singapore have an avaricious oligarchy or have I been misinformed?  If I were you I would look elsewhere for the problems considering the success of Singapore with its avaricious oligarchy. 

Edited January 9, 20197 yr by marcusarelus

3 minutes ago, marcusarelus said:

Doesn't Singapore have an avaricious oligarchy or have I been misinformed?  If I were you I would look elsewhere for the problems considering the success of Singapore with its avaricious oligarchy. 

He are sadly naive. Singapore wealth is moderately well distributed and mostly middle class. The city state has been described as wealth only moderately unequal. You really got to look up the definition of oligarchy. Hint Russia. 

19 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

He are sadly naive. Singapore wealth is moderately well distributed and mostly middle class. The city state has been described as wealth only moderately unequal. You really got to look up the definition of oligarchy. Hint Russia. 

One of many, actually.

 

Hint: USA, UK, numerous other.....

6 hours ago, superal said:

Please confirm if I am right or wrong but I thought that election will still leave the army with 51%  control of the running of the country .

 I agree, imo it's Prayut or a reasonable facsimile for life (my life anyway lol). Thailand's economy depends a lot more on what happens with China/US trade negotiations than what happens with this "election". 

13 hours ago, Lungstib said:

Correction:  half a century.      If people studied the generals performance in running an army they would see mistakes of the magnitude of buying fake golf ball detectors, aircraft carriers with no planes and unusable airships. Anyone that thinks leaving 'managers' like this to run a country is in cloud cuckoo land.

In fairness Lungstib, when they bought the aircraft carrier, it came with some airplanes. Old, knackered Spanish versions of the Harrier. A few of them even worked at the start but everyone was so excited about joining the big time in Naval leagues that they forgot to buy any spare parts. So pretty soon they were all worn out and broken...

Edited January 9, 20197 yr by JAG

NO .Election certainty is Damaging ..nothing uncertain about this election except for ,when!

6 minutes ago, mok199 said:

NO .Election certainty is Damaging ..nothing uncertain about this election except for ,when!

Yet, election uncertainty has been a way of life - on and on - forever and has yet to interfere with Thais everyday lives and independence. 

 

What is terribly certain is the outsiders ability to decipher what is real and what isn't regarding Thai culture and affairs, relishing instead within their punditry of fancy.

13 hours ago, LomSak27 said:

but this very paper was leading the cheers saying ..  nope everything is great and blowing sunshine.

 

The Nation, ever since the halcyon days of Yoon, has been a right-wing authoritarian paper, and all of it's associated bodies share that bleak philosophy.

 

Which might raise some significant issues...

 

 

 

22 minutes ago, HalfLight said:

 

The Nation, ever since the halcyon days of Yoon, has been a right-wing authoritarian paper, and all of it's associated bodies share that bleak philosophy.

 

Which might raise some significant issues...

 

 

 

Correct.

Yet, many will blindly follow and reference without an inkling of questioned source. 

7 hours ago, HalfLight said:

The Nation, ever since the halcyon days of Yoon, has been a right-wing authoritarian paper, and all of it's associated bodies share that bleak philosophy.

 

Which might raise some significant issues...

Yes, but if you state it so explicitly they don't like it. And as they run Thai Visa 

tv never finishes the title...........................just add "for the last 4 years"

13 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

He are sadly naive. Singapore wealth is moderately well distributed and mostly middle class. The city state has been described as wealth only moderately unequal. You really got to look up the definition of oligarchy. Hint Russia. 

You are sadly unread.  Perhaps take a look at the book below.  Hint Singapore,

Edited January 10, 20197 yr by marcusarelus