SURVEY: Will the new financial requirements force you to leave?

[onera1961]

On 2/8/2019 at 10:52 PM, Hugh Geen said:

If sterling drops below 30baht I may have a problem.

Not sure about Sterling but the Trump Administration wants Baht to become even more stronger. They think it is still weak. They want it to reach 25BHT/USD. Currency market predicts it will  be in that range around 2022/2023 (when I start getting my SS). Thailand is already in the watch list. If central bank intervenes to make it weaker, Trump administration will declare Thailand a currency manipulator. It will result in dramatic decrease in Export (Traffic kicks in), and massive layoffs of people in organized sector where they're entitled to pension and SS benefits. 

Most people will ride it out but it will be difficult for new retirees to come to a cheap place like Thailand as it used to be a decade ago. Thailand is reorganizing its economic structure as massive inflow of foreign currency is pouring into Thai stock and bond market and millions of tourists are coming from China and India. 

 

In the 19th century, the world was Europeanized. In the 20th century, it was Americanized. Now, in the 21st century, the world is being irreversibly Asianized. Each country  will reshape their business and culture according to their need. They day when Thailand needed dollar desperately (@ at 40BHT/USD) is gone. They currency will drive most Westerners out of Thailand (at least the new retirees)

[watcharacters]

3 minutes ago, onera1961 said:

Not sure about Sterling but the Trump Administration wants Baht to become even more stronger. They think it is still weak. They want it to reach 25BHT/USD.

 

Please, please produce a source for that statement.    I' love to  read it.

 

Heck, Trump doesn't even know Thailand exists.  ????

[onera1961]

3 minutes ago, watcharacters said:

Heck, Trump doesn't even know Thailand exists.  

But there are people in his administration. You can search google. I don't remember each article I read and don't book mark them. 

[JackThompson]

2 minutes ago, onera1961 said:

But there are people in his administration. You can search google. I don't remember each article I read and don't book mark them. 

Well, you've brought up this old-thread to repeat what you put in the newer one, so a source would be nice. 

[onera1961]

12 minutes ago, JackThompson said:

Well, you've brought up this old-thread to repeat what you put in the newer one, so a source would be nice.

I am warning people to get ready for Baht appreciation (2022/2023). Import as much baht into Thailand as one could afford. I changed my views in the last few months only. If you don't know Thailand is in the watch list of Trump administration for currency manipulation, you can google it. Just one thing is holding Thailand back. If it continues to accumulate more foreign currency, and their reserve crosses a certain percentage of GDP limit, Trump admin can declare it a currency manipulator. I'm not saying it will happen but it prevents central bank from intervening. Once declared a currency manipulator, tariff kicks in and slows down export. 

[watcharacters]

12 minutes ago, onera1961 said:

But there are people in his administration. You can search google. I don't remember each article I read and don't book mark them. 

 

 

Well, sorry but it rings of a flippant remark to me.    I simply don't believe it.  But carry on nevertheless.

[onera1961]

24 minutes ago, watcharacters said:

ell, sorry but it rings of a flippant remark to me.    I simply don't believe it.  But carry on nevertheless.

Sorry, I cannot do search for you and educate you on economic reality. Here is a starting link. You can do your search and collect more articles and read those, I don't form my opinion based in one article only. That will be regurgitating.

I am not saying this will happen (declaring Thailand as a currency manipulator)  but I am almost sure that Thai central bank will not intervene in weakening Baht and there is no economic reason for baht to weaken when massive amount Chinese and Indian tourists are pouring into Thailand and Thai bond and stock markets are flooded with foreign currency.

 

You can also search for economic council's report that export is down 5% in last few months and they are blaming strong Thai baht wants central bank to intervene. When export is down, the country has to improve its productivity, invest in capitals, etc. to make it up. You cannot do it by weakening currency. Weakening currency gives advantage to only a fraction of people who have access to foreign currency. Improving productivity improves the masses and with a strong union, they can distribute the gains proportionately to the masses.

 

Enough of economic lessons.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-15/trump-s-claim-of-currency-manipulation-tested-in-treasury-report

[ubonjoe]

1 hour ago, onera1961 said:

I changed my views in the last few months only. If you don't know Thailand is in the watch list of Trump administration for currency manipulation, you can google it.

I think you mixing up what they consider manipulation.

They don't care about the dollar being stronger in relation to a countries currency. If Thailand tries to stop the Baht from getting stronger against the dollar the US will have no concerns about it.

[blazes]

There's a lot of quite confused thinking here!

 

This link will help a bit:

https://theaseanpost.com/article/india-thailand-risk-being-added-us-currency-watchlist-2

 

It's worth observing that the hi-so class in Thailand will certainly benefit from a strong baht, making it very cheap for them (the lucky few) to visit Europe and other destinations of delight.

 

 

[onera1961]

1 hour ago, ubonjoe said:

If Thailand tries to stop the Baht from getting stronger against the dollar the US will have no concerns about it.

No you're mistaken. If Thai central bank wants to intervene and stops Baht appreciation, it will be currency manipulation after certain limit. Central banks are allowed to buy dollars up to 2% of their GDP over 12 month period. Central banks can always intervene to stop sliding of a currency with respect to dollar if the country is in dire economic states.

In layman's term, a currency manipulator is a country which adjusts its currency to gain trade advantage with US. So, if Thailand wants to make baht weaker for Americans to think it is cheaper to use Thai products (more exports for Thailand and more imports for US from Thailand) and Thais to think it is expensive to use US products (less import of US products into Thailand and less export from US), it is currency manipulations. 

 

https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/1562206/is-thailand-a-manipulator-

[onera1961]

48 minutes ago, blazes said:

It's worth observing that the hi-so class in Thailand will certainly benefit from a strong baht, making it very cheap for them (the lucky few) to visit Europe and other destinations of delight.

A weak baht benefits people who have access to foreign currency like retirees or tourists. It does not create a growth economy. It affects the export of the country and export falls. But a country cannot simply manipulate currency (keeping it weak) to bolster its export. It can be declared a currency manipulator triggering Tariff, further decline of exports resulting in massive loss of jobs in organized sectors.

To compensate for loss in export due to currency appreciation, a country must increase labor productivity by increasing training, education, and capital investment, automation. All these activities create good paying jobs with benefits. It enriches the masses. Manipulating currency (keeping it weak than the free market demands) only benefits a few who have access to foreign currency. 

 

[JackThompson]

28 minutes ago, onera1961 said:

No you're mistaken. If Thai central bank wants to intervene and stops Baht appreciation, it will be currency manipulation after certain limit. Central banks are allowed to buy dollars up to 2% of their GDP over 12 month period. Central banks can always intervene to stop sliding of a currency with respect to dollar if the country is in dire economic states.

In layman's term, a currency manipulator is a country which adjusts its currency to gain trade advantage with US. So, if Thailand wants to make baht weaker for Americans to think it is cheaper to use Thai products (more exports for Thailand and more imports for US from Thailand) and Thais to think it is expensive to use US products (less import of US products into Thailand and less export from US), it is currency manipulations.

How does a stronger baht make Thailand's products cheaper to sell into the USA market?  It doesn't - it's the opposite.  The link you gave above is about concerns about trade-deficits, which result when a country sells more to the USA than they purchase.  That is the behavior of China (or so the accusation goes) - depreciating its currency to make it's products cheaper to buy.  From a NYT article on the subject:

 

Quote

intended to identify manipulators that cheapen their currency to make their exports more attractive and gain market share in the United States, a designation that could eventually lead to retaliation.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/11/business/economy/trump-china-currency-manipulation-trade.html

 

The article goes on to say that China reversed-course on its currency before Trump's election, so it a moot point at that time (2017).   Currently in the news are other "unfair trade practices" which are being worked-out in the current dialogue - and with the looming tariff-increase deadline being pushed off due to "progress" in ongoing talks.

 

Now, in theory, "manipulation" can go in either direction, but it would be very unusual for the USA to care if Thailand makes its products less-competitive by inflating the value of its currency.

[onera1961]

24 minutes ago, JackThompson said:

How does a stronger baht make Thailand's products cheaper to sell into the USA market?

A stronger baht does not. US does not want Thai product to sell in US markets. They want US products export to Thai markets (theoretically). A strong baht helps in that. That's why export from Thailand (to US for example) goes down with a strong baht. When export goes down, export based economy (like Thailand as Japan did after WW II) have to come up with increasing productivity by labor training, automation etc. That creates new jobs and if workers are unionized it benefits the masses. Manipulating currency (by keeping it weak) only benefits to people who have access to foreign currency and it is not an economic model for a country's growth. If central bank intervenes every time export goes down, there is no incentive for higher productivity or automation. Central banks are allowed to intervene but only in a limited way. They cannot continue to accumulate foreign currency and when export declines, intervene in the currency market. That is not a fully floating currency. 

[blazes]

10 minutes ago, onera1961 said:

A stronger baht does not. US does not want Thai product to sell in US markets. They want US products export to Thai markets (theoretically). A strong baht helps in that. That's why export from Thailand (to US for example) goes down. When export goes down, export based economy (like Thailand as Japan did after WW II) have to come up with increasing productivity by labor training, automation etc. That creates new jobs and if workers are unionized it benefits the masses. Manipulating currency (by keeping it weak) only benefits to people who have access to foreign currency and it is not an economic model for a country's growth. If central bank intervenes every time export goes down, there is no incentive for higher productivity or automation. 

 

Why do you keep repeating yourself?

[JackThompson]

5 minutes ago, onera1961 said:

A stronger baht does not. US does not want Thai product to sell in US markets. They want US products export to Thai markets (theoretically). A strong baht helps in that. That's why export from Thailand (to US for example) goes down. When export goes down, export based economy (like Thailand as Japan did after WW II) have to come up with increasing productivity by labor training, automation etc. That creates new jobs and if workers are unionized it benefits the masses. Manipulating currency (by keeping it weak) only benefits to people who have access to foreign currency and it is not a economic model for a country's growth. 

If the Thai baht is stronger, Thais can afford to buy US products cheaper (helps USA exports sell more), and the USA folks can not afford to buy Thai products as easily (slows Thai export-sales to the USA). 

 

This would make a Thai salary offer more purchasing-power on foreign-produced goods, which can have some benefit for Thais.  As to unions and such, only useful if they are able to push a policy of shrinking the labor-pool, by removing foreign workers willing to work cheaply - undercutting Thai workers, in this case.

[onera1961]

15 minutes ago, JackThompson said:

As to unions and such, only useful if they are able to push a policy of shrinking the labor-pool, by removing foreign workers willing to work cheaply - undercutting Thai workers, in this case.

As soon exports slows down due to straightening of currency, every economy finds ways to improve it by increasing labor productivity and automation. (no currency manipulation). If the labor force is not unionized, most productivity gains will be gobbled up by professional classes  as happened in the US slowly after 1977 when labor productivity and labor wage started diverging whereas in Japan it did not happen.

 

[BritManToo]

13 minutes ago, JackThompson said:

f the Thai baht is stronger, Thais can afford to buy US products cheaper (helps USA exports sell more), and the USA folks can not afford to buy Thai products as easily (slows Thai export-sales to the USA). 

Funny, I haven't seen any imports getting cheaper at the consumer level.

But I'm betting the importers are making an extra 15% on everything.

[JackThompson]

4 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Funny, I haven't seen any imports getting cheaper at the consumer level.

But I'm betting the importers are making an extra 15% on everything.

Most imports here come from China, and appear to be tariff'd to match comparable Thai products in many cases.

 

4 hours ago, onera1961 said:

most productivity gains will be gobbled up by professional classes  as happened in the US slowly after 1977

We agree on that.  And mass-immigration was key to breaking the unions and driving entire sectors from middle-class wages (jobs Americans "did do very willingly") to poverty-wages (the "why" of Reagan's big amnesty).  After the corporatist Clinton-machine took over the D's, labor ceased to have any voice in American politics. 

 

But the question was why the USA would go after Thailand for a strong-baht - which is where I don't see the reason.  But, there are other reasons - such as becoming a Chinese-satellite - which could lead to conflict (and part of the reason for the loss of our embassy letters, perhaps).

[brokenbone]

a strong baht is really only helpful if thailand is about to make a big purchase, typically military procurement

[myshem]

How can somebody be here at the first time if cannot even afford the easy conditions in this country ?!

You lives must be sad !