More Brexit embarrassment for May as parliament defeats her again

[Grouse]

25 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

so, maybe HoC should be just scrapped

and foggy island left to be run by the Upper House

 

 

May be expedient in the short term 

[Grouse]

8 minutes ago, vogie said:

So you're saying that the EU does not want deal, of course they want a deal, Europe is collapsing around them, going into recession and they don't want a deal. Keep flying their flag grouse, you may need it to wipe the egg off your face.

You misunderstand 

 

Leaving with no deal has ZERO credibility. As a threat it is useless 

 

If course the EU wants us to remain:

 

Geography

History

Scale

 

The money is peanuts. Look at EU GDP!!!

 

Look at the trade deals they have 

 

Frankly, leverage is very weak

 

Strongest lever is that Germany could do with a partner st the top level.

 

EU will just walk away......

[melvinmelvin]

4 minutes ago, Grouse said:

May be expedient in the short term 

there is no short/long term Grouse,

 

if it is at all possible to change some of UKs political system.

like fptp like number of constituencies like boosting parliaments sovereignty

like streamlining the parliament-cabinet relationship

 

it would probably be a one time only event

 

not, do this and this in the short time

and maybe so and so in the longer time

 

UK is rather allergic to any changes.

 

[Basil B]

7 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

If it is at all possible to change some of UKs political system.

like fptp like number of constituencies like boosting parliaments sovereignty

like streamlining the parliament-cabinet relationship

They are changing the number of Constituencies down to 600 at the next scheduled GE in May 2022, not sure what will happen if we get a GE called sooner but that is highly unlikely to happen, It would be like turkeys voting for Christmas... given that 50 will be going anyway.

[SheungWan]

13 hours ago, Lungstib said:

The Brexit fiasco is at least informing us on the dire situation British politics is facing. The chosen winners of the last election have shown themselves to be totally divided over this issue and the opposition is making little or no inroads into its fight to overtake. Perhaps the British have finally decided that politicians are just not to be trusted to do what the electorate want but the time appears to be ripe for new parties to make an appearance. The old ones look to be intent on just pulling themselves apart.

The last thing needed would be an additional bunch of lunatic populists.

[vogie]

20 minutes ago, Grouse said:

You misunderstand 

 

Leaving with no deal has ZERO credibility. As a threat it is useless 

 

If course the EU wants us to remain:

 

Geography

History

Scale

 

The money is peanuts. Look at EU GDP!!!

 

Look at the trade deals they have 

 

Frankly, leverage is very weak

 

Strongest lever is that Germany could do with a partner st the top level.

 

EU will just walk away......

Leaving the EU according to grouse, is staying in.

 

As JRM said last night on Question Time "we voted to leave the EU, we didn't vote for a deal"

 

Its like Jeremy Corbyns wonder deal, lets call it a Norway - - -, I just wonder whose idea that was, certainly not Corbyns.

 

Lets give the electorate what they voted for, 

 

It will be once in a lifetime.

It will mean leaving the single market and the customs union.

"When the British people speak, their voice will be respected, not ignored"

How shallow does that sentence sound now?

 

 

 

[BritManToo]

10 minutes ago, vogie said:

Leaving the EU according to grouse, is staying in.

As JRM said last night on Question Time "we voted to leave the EU, we didn't vote for a deal"

Gotta agree, leaving means no deals, no payoffs just goodbye.

 

Just as well I'm not in charge because I would have already ordered naval exercises in the Channel and North sea, and recalled troops to the UK. Maybe already setting up a Thai system for 90 day reporting and foreign nationals required to report addresses.

 

I would also nationalise all foreign assets in the UK and only allow British citizens to own land and shares.

Edited February 15, 2019 by BritManToo

[tomacht8]

8 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Gotta agree, leaving means no deals, no payoffs just goodbye.

If they don't like it, they can start shooting.

shooting no.
This will be a decade-long trial.
Meanwhile, the globe keeps turning.
Europe is getting poorer overall.
Emerging markets catch up.
And the big three US, China and Russia share the cake.
The disunity of Europe is the best that could happen to their economy.
Think the UK will also lose respect as a solid investment location.

Edited February 15, 2019 by tomacht8

[melvinmelvin]

28 minutes ago, Grouse said:

You misunderstand 

 

Leaving with no deal has ZERO credibility. As a threat it is useless 

 

If course the EU wants us to remain:

 

Geography

History

Scale

 

The money is peanuts. Look at EU GDP!!!

 

Look at the trade deals they have 

 

Frankly, leverage is very weak

 

Strongest lever is that Germany could do with a partner st the top level.

 

EU will just walk away......

 

dunno Grouse, this is somewhat difficult terrain to navigate in,

 

although many on TVF seem to think there are very simple solutions to complex problems,

(the problems are not complex at all, but parties disagree way too much)

reality shows it ain't that easy.

 

it was said above that leaving with no deal has no credibility, maybe so,

maybe no-deal is no threat any longer, can agree with that

 

the real threat, which would really take the piss out of EU is if UK decided to remain,

and then trigger a new A50

and EU would enjoy couple of more years with so called negotiators from UK

and not least circus Farage in EP.

 

That would really piss EU off, big time.

 

The importance of avoiding no-deal has diminished over time.

 

 

 

 

[tomacht8]

5 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

dunno Grouse, this is somewhat difficult terrain to navigate in,

 

although many on TVF seem to think there are very simple solutions to complex problems,

(the problems are not complex at all, but parties disagree way too much)

reality shows it ain't that easy.

 

it was said above that leaving with no deal has no credibility, maybe so,

maybe no-deal is no threat any longer, can agree with that

 

the real threat, which would really take the piss out of EU is if UK decided to remain,

and then trigger a new A50

and EU would enjoy couple of more years with so called negotiators from UK

and not least circus Farage in EP.

 

That would really piss EU off, big time.

 

The importance of avoiding no-deal has diminished over time.

 

 

 

 

Many companies are already preparing for this.
All seminars at the Chambers of Commerce in Germany are fully booked!
How do I properly fill in the customs documents?
What is a certificate of origin?
What tariffs await me?
What is the SAD A50?
What is differential taxation on exports to non-EU countries.
Product Sales Tax Identification Number.
GBVAT Registration NumberVAT Reg No 11/14 GB x1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8x9x10x11x12
More bureaucracy, more costs, long handling times.
This leads to lower corporate profits and higher prices for all Europeans.
The main thing is that the Brexiters have their independence sausage.
There are some sympathies gone.

[tebee]

1 hour ago, tomacht8 said:

Many companies are already preparing for this.
All seminars at the Chambers of Commerce in Germany are fully booked!
How do I properly fill in the customs documents?
What is a certificate of origin?
What tariffs await me?
What is the SAD A50?
What is differential taxation on exports to non-EU countries.
Product Sales Tax Identification Number.
GBVAT Registration NumberVAT Reg No 11/14 GB x1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8x9x10x11x12
More bureaucracy, more costs, long handling times.
This leads to lower corporate profits and higher prices for all Europeans.
The main thing is that the Brexiters have their independence sausage.
There are some sympathies gone.

indeed, the whole of the EU is much better prepared for a possible no deal Brexit than the UK is.

[tebee]

1 hour ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

dunno Grouse, this is somewhat difficult terrain to navigate in,

 

although many on TVF seem to think there are very simple solutions to complex problems,

(the problems are not complex at all, but parties disagree way too much)

reality shows it ain't that easy.

 

it was said above that leaving with no deal has no credibility, maybe so,

maybe no-deal is no threat any longer, can agree with that

 

the real threat, which would really take the piss out of EU is if UK decided to remain,

and then trigger a new A50

and EU would enjoy couple of more years with so called negotiators from UK

and not least circus Farage in EP.

 

That would really piss EU off, big time.

 

The importance of avoiding no-deal has diminished over time.

 

 

 

 

The simple but wrong answers problem is at the heart of Brexit .

People knew they were not happy 

Brexit provided simple and apparently coherent answers as to why they were not happy 

So they voted for it 

Now, even when those answers have been proven to be wrong they won't change their minds 

 

So we fall off the cliff

 

[tomacht8]

22 minutes ago, tebee said:

indeed, the whole of the EU is much better prepared for a possible no deal Brexit than the UK is.

I can support it that way.
The UK does not have the administrative infrastructure to handle all the tasks that have been carried out via the EU now.

Subsidy allocation to British farmers.
Allocation of research funds for UK projects.
Implementation of the Erasmus program.
Participation in the project Galileo.
Carrying out investment financing.
Joint work on safety databases.
Sustainability, resource security, environmental protection.
Allocation of structural development funds.
And much more.

But now the UK must first invest in border security and customs clearance capacity.
555
They can do that, certainly in 40+ days, right?

Edited February 15, 2019 by tomacht8

[damascase]

29 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

...................
But now the UK must first invest in border security and customs clearance capacity.
555
They can do that, certainly in 40+ days, right?

About Customs: will the UK have any Customs legislation in place, or will they continue to base procedures etc. on the comprehensive EU Customs legislation?

[tomacht8]

52 minutes ago, damascase said:

About Customs: will the UK have any Customs legislation in place, or will they continue to base procedures etc. on the comprehensive EU Customs legislation?

Nobody know what they want.
Nobody wants the result of the negotiations aka Mays / EU plan.

Parliament does not want no deal Brexit.
Empty space in the heads of the Leaders from a Country.

Edited February 15, 2019 by tomacht8

[Monomial]

The EU is taking a big risk as well here, although probably not as much as the UK. Still, their worst nightmare is that a no deal Brexit occurs, and it isn't as bad as they've made it out to be. In fact, this is probably going to be the case, as they have been screaming the world will collapse for months. My guess is the reality will be bad, but not exactly the catastrophe it is being represented as.

 

Should this actually happen, then Brussels will have absolutely no bullets if another member chooses to leave. They won't be able to play this card again if their bluff is called this time and the world keeps going with just a hiccup or two. So I would be willing to bet that as the deadline gets closer, both sides are going to become more flexible in their positions. Neither can really afford to let a no deal exit go through, although I'm sure hard liners on both sides are going to be inflexible about it.

 

It is like watching a game of chicken though. Both sides waiting for the other to blink. Much like a US court room, there is almost certain to be a last minute plea bargain right before the jury comes back.

 

[SheungWan]

3 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Gotta agree, leaving means no deals, no payoffs just goodbye.

Just as well I'm not in charge because I would have already ordered naval exercises in the Channel and North sea, and recalled troops to the UK. Maybe already setting up a Thai system for 90 day reporting and foreign nationals required to report addresses.

I would also nationalise all foreign assets in the UK and only allow British citizens to own land and shares.

As predicted, the closer we get to the nominal day, the more the wheels will fly off the Hard Brexiteer wagon and the only thing called for will be the men in white coats.

[SheungWan]

18 minutes ago, Monomial said:

The EU is taking a big risk as well here, although probably not as much as the UK. Still, their worst nightmare is that a no deal Brexit occurs, and it isn't as bad as they've made it out to be. In fact, this is probably going to be the case, as they have been screaming the world will collapse for months. My guess is the reality will be bad, but not exactly the catastrophe it is being represented as.

Should this actually happen, then Brussels will have absolutely no bullets if another member chooses to leave. They won't be able to play this card again if their bluff is called this time and the world keeps going with just a hiccup or two. So I would be willing to bet that as the deadline gets closer, both sides are going to become more flexible in their positions. Neither can really afford to let a no deal exit go through, although I'm sure hard liners on both sides are going to be inflexible about it.

It is like watching a game of chicken though. Both sides waiting for the other to blink. Much like a US court room, there is almost certain to be a last minute plea bargain right before the jury comes back.

Some people living in their own imagined world.

[SheungWan]

4 hours ago, vogie said:

Leaving the EU according to grouse, is staying in.

As JRM said last night on Question Time "we voted to leave the EU, we didn't vote for a deal"

Its like Jeremy Corbyns wonder deal, lets call it a Norway - - -, I just wonder whose idea that was, certainly not Corbyns.

Lets give the electorate what they voted for, 

It will be once in a lifetime.

It will mean leaving the single market and the customs union.

"When the British people speak, their voice will be respected, not ignored"

How shallow does that sentence sound now?

The shallowness is in the dishonest presumption by the Hard Brexiteers of what was voted on in the referendum. Holding hands in the darkness and endless chanting. A sad show of the self-deluded.

Edited February 15, 2019 by SheungWan

[nontabury]

20 hours ago, brewsterbudgen said:

Indeed. It's astonishing that May is trying so hard to placate the extremists in her party, rather than seeking a cross-party consensus. She will have a lot to answer for if we crash out.

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk
 

Perhaps she should be trying to placate the over 17,400,000 people who Democratically voted to leave this so called union. 

 

 

[Sticky Wicket]

5 hours ago, SheungWan said:

Some people living in their own imagined world.

Don't you get bored of posting sneering, condescending, self opinionated responses ? 

[alanrchase]

Perhaps she should be trying to placate the over 17,400,000 people who Democratically voted to leave this so called union. 
 
 

But the BRexiteer thinks they should be able to take their coat without paying the cloakroom fee and come back and use the bathroom facilities whenever they want.

Sent from my SM-A500F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[Mike Teavee]

1 hour ago, nontabury said:

Perhaps she should be trying to placate the over 17,400,000 people who Democratically voted to leave this so called union. 

 

 

Though I get what the analogy is trying to say it's pretty poor as following that logic the Bouncer would be the one who's asking to leave and the patron is (or more accurately SHOULD be) trying to make sure they don't leave though the 4th floor window.

[Chomper Higgot]

2 hours ago, nontabury said:

Perhaps she should be trying to placate the over 17,400,000 people who Democratically voted to leave this so called union. 

 

 

Honesty is always a good starting point.

 

But yes, somebody does need to answer to (most*) of the over 17,400,000 people for the lies and misinformation they were fed.

 

* There will always be some that are not bothered by the lies so long as they can continue going through life blaming other’s for what’s wrong in their world.

 

 

[superal]

This one off Brexit has brought to the fore many weaknesses in the UK governance .

Elected MPs ,  do they vote in parliament with their constituents preferences on Brexit ( in order to be re-elected ? )  or do they follow some personal beliefs ?  or do they follow their parties whip ?

The above scenario does not help in the final Brexit decision .

 

There is belief from several EU countries that the EU common market has passed its sell by date and that a Brexit no deal will trigger France & Italy to follow . The EU negotiating bullies are demonstrating to others who may consider leaving the EU that its not worth it . TM has proved she should not have been at the helm from the start as she lost 2 Brexit secretaries due to her stubborn ways .

In private industries a performance as of TM would not be tolerated and she would have been kicked out by the shareholders .   This Brexit bull needs to be taken by the horns and brought to a conclusion but I fear alas that the UK politics will not permit it . 

[SheungWan]

3 minutes ago, superal said:

This one off Brexit has brought to the fore many weaknesses in the UK governance .

Elected MPs ,  do they vote in parliament with their constituents preferences on Brexit ( in order to be re-elected ? )  or do they follow some personal beliefs ?  or do they follow their parties whip ?

The above scenario does not help in the final Brexit decision .

There is belief from several EU countries that the EU common market has passed its sell by date and that a Brexit no deal will trigger France & Italy to follow . The EU negotiating bullies are demonstrating to others who may consider leaving the EU that its not worth it . TM has proved she should not have been at the helm from the start as she lost 2 Brexit secretaries due to her stubborn ways .

In private industries a performance as of TM would not be tolerated and she would have been kicked out by the shareholders .   This Brexit bull needs to be taken by the horns and brought to a conclusion but I fear alas that the UK politics will not permit it . 

Private industry think the Hard Brexiteers are away with the fairies.

[Kwasaki]

23 hours ago, tomacht8 said:

Yes.

It is going down fast as a Lift.

Bangkok Bank today:

Cash: 39.12

TT: 39.667

By the end of February, if there are no good news, we could test the 38.XX

The Brexit banana stucks full in the back end. 

 

1000 squid at 40 = 40,000.

1000 squid at 38 = 38,000.

2000 baht lost will not be as bad as a being in a lift crashing to the floor. 

[Chomper Higgot]

3 minutes ago, Kwasaki said:

1000 squid at 40 = 40,000.

1000 squid at 38 = 38,000.

2000 baht lost will not be as bad as a being in a lift crashing to the floor. 

Except that’s not the real ‘Brexit’ loss is it?!

 

 

[tomacht8]

44 minutes ago, Kwasaki said:

1000 squid at 40 = 40,000.

1000 squid at 38 = 38,000.

2000 baht lost will not be as bad as a being in a lift crashing to the floor. 

22.jun.2016
1000 squid at 51,36 TT = 51.360
15.feb.2019
1000 squid at 39,66 TT = 39.667
= - 11.693
= - 22,77 %
Let us count this.
A simple rough estimate with the value loss constant over the time axis.
Let say your monthly income/Pension is 1000 squid
jul 2016 - feb2019 = 32 month
32 * 11.693 = 374.176 Baht loss 

For that Money you could buy 7 new Honda Clicks.
or (1 Singha beer small 35Baht) = 10690 bottles beer you have less.
or (Barfine 500 Baht) = 748 Barfines  you have less
555
Have a nice day.

 

[Kwasaki]

1 hour ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Except that’s not the real ‘Brexit’ loss is it?!

 

 

The fact is Brexit or no Brexit that's the way it's and you just have to live with it, there's nothing you can do about it.